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Equity Update
From Nic Lenoir At ICAP
Good morning,
Just a quick technical update on the S&P future. We had recommended shorting around 1,087 (a touch early) but the market has shaped a very clean bearish impulse from 1,099. Currently we see a target at 1,045 for this move, after which we could see a rebound to 1,070/1,079 before further downward pressure.
Our big picture view remains very bearish, but the wave pattern from 1,003 to 1,099 is unclear to me. One could argue we had a bullish impulse from the lows but honestly the wave count is very shaky as the volumeless melt-ups show no participation and act a lot more than a Fixed Income or a FX carry trade than a proper bullish risk appetite impulse. In that sense I picture the move from 1,003 to 1,099 more as a corrective rally, and we would now be in bearish wave 3 of III. If that is the case after seeing 1,045 or slightly lower (1,041.50 is the 61.8% retracement of the bounce up) we could consolidate back up to 1,070 and possibly 1,079 (1,080 should not be bypassed) before accelerating lower.
I will update later on USDCAD and USDCLP FX crosses as I believe a break higher of those pairs could be the trigger to deflationary move in financial assets which would go along with our bearish equities view and our call for a bearish correction in Gold in the near term.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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A little too much crystal ball for me
Too much crystal ball? Would you rather him not give his predictions and just aimlessly read numbers and statements from the latest fed reports? If so, I believe Steve Liesman would be happy to pick up another fan.
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hang around for more than a couple of months and realize you won't find anything closer to a crystal ball
cheers
S&P 500 to 350, bitches.
Please take special note, as this can be very confusing to some.. *cough* Chemba *cough*
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-fx-team-validates-cynical-critics-capitulates-eurusd-recommendation-once-again
The SPX will not get to 300 or 500 on a nominal basis, even if that is where ought to be on a real basis.
in fact, it ought to be at 500 right now on a real basis, and yet here it sits at 1000-1100.
You need to incorporate the Central money printers into your "analysis"
You need to incorporate a liquidity trap into your analysis. Are you familiar with the term?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidity_trap
ie, Japan
Japan implemented austerity budgets in the midst of their crisis. Do you really think that Obama/Pelosi/Reid are going to implement austerity budgets? What's more, Banana Ben will actively buy equities with freshly printed money before ever letting the market drop to SPX 500
Bank on it
this is what marc faber has been saying, and i see the wisdom in it. however things have been pretty volatile and the downward movement has me confused. if you listen to faber sometimes he just says....the s&p won't go to 666 again. but could it go to 700 or 800? i mean....there are lots of shades of grey right?
Austerity will blindside your type (the helicopter worshipping cult) along with all the pop culture junkies.
Print money and watch nominal rates go to the moon (real rates are already there basically)
the 1,000 level will soon be a distant, unreachable memory, get ready for the mid 00s to stay for many many years. The S&P index might not exist when better levels may be achieved...
There are some funny comments here, but you sir top the list...
Tyler you forget to censor this last line for the gold bugs. More like 'call for a GOLD $50,000 target'
+10
Thanks Nic good analysis as usual.
Thanks for the timely market updates; they are most appreciated!
I disagree with Nic's wave count. The moves from 13-Jul to 15-Jul can not be minuette i since they were not impulsive. minuette i ended 1080, ii ended 1099, iii under way now, which means minor 3 target is well below Nic's 1045