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Erik Nielsen's Afternoon Greece Update

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yawn.

I am running between meetings here in NY so I apologises but I cannot respond to all the emails I get from clients and sales people today.  So let me address a few of the latest rumours that I get lots of questions on:

  1. IMF is likely to reach agreement this coming weekend.  It'll then go to the Board for formal approval, which is a formality.
  2. The program will NOT be 100-150bn.  Not realistic.  But it will probably include a year of full funding (55bn), and indications of a long term commitment to help Greece.
  3. The program will not include a "private sector contribution", ie a demand for debt restructuring.
  4. the first European money, including in Spain, will be approved on Friday; others including Germany will followed very shortly after.  It looks as if the European money will be disbursed in parallel with the IMF, with the first money going out before mid-May, safely in time for the May 19 "deadline".
  5. The ECB is extremely unlikely to intervene in Greek sovereign debt (what would they want to achieve by doing so?).

 

 

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Wed, 04/28/2010 - 14:53 | 322390 Mongo
Mongo's picture

The ECB is extremely unlikely to intervene in Greek sovereign debt (what would they want to achieve by doing so?)

 

O'Rly?

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 14:54 | 322397 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

There's going to be a whole lot more of that "long term commitment" coming to taxpayers in Germany.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 14:55 | 322400 Zombie Investor
Zombie Investor's picture

Why do agreements always happen on the weekend?

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:22 | 322477 mephisto
mephisto's picture

Friday - 1st class flight, 5*hotel suite, dinner out, drinks, hookers for the russians/japanese

Saturday - hotel breakfast, meeting, agreement, statement finalised, lunch, drinks, dinner out, drinks, hookers for the russians/japanese

Sunday - hotel breakfast, shopping for the wife/hooker as appropriate, lunch out, pre-statement sharpening cocktails, statement, dinner, 1st class flight.

Clear?

 

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:02 | 322548 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

+1

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:22 | 322612 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Hilarious.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 14:59 | 322416 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

Does Greece have to use part of it's "not a bailout" money it got from Spain to fund Spain's bailout?

Maybe GM can sign on as an advisor on that deal.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:03 | 322429 Prof Gulliver
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Crisis averted. Let's move on. We can gun the Dow to 14,000 by May 15. Then when we find the crisis wasn't really averted, we simply take the Dow down 200 points: back to 12,000. Rinse and repeat until we hit 36,000, probably by Christmas. You gotta love it.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:04 | 322433 economessed
economessed's picture

OK, now that everything is fine again, is it time to rally once more?  Debt crisis solved with new "un-crisis-like debt."  BUY BUY BUY BUY.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:17 | 322468 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Yes. We held 1087 SPX support again. A close above 1196 would be a clear signal that we may see new highs by Friday's close. I'm just relaying what the technicals appear to be saying.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:46 | 322517 economessed
economessed's picture

Harry "The Oracle of my Oriface" Wanger spins the bottle and says "Everybody Buy.  The bottom is in."

So, Harry, what will we go out and scoop-up?  Do the home builders again?  Airlines?  Or should we load-up on the financials with OTM short-dated calls?

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:55 | 322674 RichardENixon
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I heard Pets.com is thinking about giving it another go, but keep that under your hat.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:03 | 322553 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

You have to love the extreme optimism of this tool.

Seriuosly, is that you Dennis Neale?

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:17 | 322592 glenlloyd
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denise neale...wouldn't doubt it, but you're right a 100% tool.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:21 | 322608 Prof Gulliver
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You may and can doubt Harry's fundamentals, but you can't deny his results. This is the bizarro world now. All of us saying "this will end badly" have been saying that for more than a year. None of us expected it could possibly go on this long. A year ago ZH fanboys' No. 1 guru David (I Destroy My Clients Wealth) Rosenberg said the S&P was "overvalued" at 890 and would soon crash 20 percent! They have won. They can extend and pretend forever. I am convinced.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 17:11 | 322702 economessed
economessed's picture

Harry is the anonymous message board equivalent of a public defense attorney -- he takes on the job of sticking up for the results of a fraudlent system.  This is not a harmless act.  I see it as malicous.

The accounting rules were tossed out the window, transparency was eliminated, our Federal government's policy is now complete underwriting of moral hazard, and enforcement of the rules of fair play have all but ceased.

I'm here not to gain "hot stock tips."  I'm here because I want to change the system.  I want what I can't get from other sources.  Who is with me?

Harry -- I respect your right to contribute whatever thoughts pour from your head, but I do not appreciate your passing support for greed under any and all circumstances.

WHO THE HELL IS WITH ME?

Thu, 04/29/2010 - 00:34 | 323179 newbie vampire
newbie vampire's picture

I am an insignificant little vamp but I'm with you.

Thu, 04/29/2010 - 00:39 | 323033 akak
akak's picture

Before responding to the virtually ubiquitous ZH poster "HarryWanger", please be aware of just whom and what you are dealing with in this person:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/AAPL-apple-gm-psycho...

His real name is James Kostohryz, and he is here posing as a troll in dishonesty and in disregard for the fundamental purposes of this forum. He is NOT posting here in good faith, but is purposely antagonizing those with independent, anti-establishment views and opinions for his own selfish and cynical purposes, as part of a study on "the psychology of permabears". 

He believes that anyone who opposes the current widespread fraud, corruption and rampant lies within our societies and governments are "utopian" and unrealistic, pollyannish dreamers.

And for those ZeroHedgers who are advocates of sound money backed by gold, this bankster shill is already out there with one of the most disingenuous, dishonest pieces of pro-establishment propaganda on the topic, expounding on how such financial integrity is "impossible", and merely "the rants of an ideological fringe":

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Gold-Standard-Solid-as-minyanville-285...

Please do NOT respond to this reprehensible troll, here or anywhere else on ZeroHedge.  He is NOT here in good faith, and should be shunned!

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:07 | 322444 exportbank
exportbank's picture

Has Angela Merkle already conceded the upcoming German elections? I hadn't heard that. The same game is playing out everywhere - the savers are expected to surrender their hard won gains to the spenders. 

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:13 | 322457 Duuude
Duuude's picture

Hokey Dokey, glad that's fixed. Who's next on tha merry-go-round ?

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 15:45 | 322516 chet
chet's picture

'The program will not include a "private sector contribution"'

Of course not.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:18 | 322598 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Anyone who believes that this "contagion" isn't headed in our direction is an absolute tool/fool.

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 16:55 | 322672 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

the $55b is palatable as a first year commitment because the whole enchilada was upwards of $105b, so the lesser is "easier" to bring home as "good news." Of course, the down the road commitment will be $150b in the second year, gun to head again, and wash rinse repeat.  tra-la-de-da!

"What Rusty always says"

Wed, 04/28/2010 - 20:15 | 322930 David449420
David449420's picture

It not very likely there will be a second year.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!