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Erste Oil Special Report: "Force Majeure - Middle East"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Erste bank has released the definitive report on oil price dynamics (attached) accounting for all the latest geopolitical hoopla. For what it's worth, the Austrian bank is constructive on oil prices, and see substantial upside from here: "We see mainly upside risk for the oil price. Even though the supply in the market is currently still sufficient, we believe that the wave of revolutions will continue to roll and could thus push the oil price  to new highs. For technical reasons we therefore expect the upward trend to continue at least in the first half of the year, and we also think that new all-time-highs are possible. As soon as the parabolic phase has been reached, the sentiment starts spiking, and first divergences are emerging, we recommend stops be set. However, it currently seems to be too early for that. We expect an average price of Brent of USD 124 for the full year." 57 pages of pure factual and chart goodness.

Report highlights:

  • As discussed in our Oil Report 2010, “Too fast, too furious… now time for a break”, the risk/return profile for oil-investors was of limited attractiveness last year, both in absolute terms and in relation to equities or other commodities. But to be fair, we have to point out that the correction that we had anticipated for the second half of the year never happened. We underestimated the amount of ink that the Federal Reserve was going to pour into its “virtual printing press” and the extent of relentless deficit spending and, at the beginning of 2010, failed to foresee how little importance was going to be attached to monetary stability. The weak US dollar is logical consequence of the quantitative easing, which in our opinion is really just a euphemism for printing “virtual” money.
  • We believe that the “Bernanke put” is the main reason for the price increases in the commodity segment. The Fed has repeatedly emphasized the positive effects of higher stock prices. Commodities also benefit from the investors’ increased willingness to assume risks, as the following chart clearly illustrates. It is quite impossible to explain the extremely high correlation of the equity market and the oil price with classic supply/demand patterns. According to Dave Rosenberg1 there is a 86% correlation between the movements in the Fed balance sheet and in the S&P 500 since the onset of QE two years ago. Indeed, the monetary policy seems to have turned into the most important determining factor. Since QE2 was announced, the speculative net exposure of wheat and oil for example at the CBOT has doubled; the one of copper has increased by 90%, and that of soy by 40%. One can therefore assume that the rally is mainly driven by liquidity.
  • As discussed in our latest Gold Report, the discussion about inflation these days focuses on the symptom of the price increases rather than on their causes. Rising prices are therefore only a valve for the increased money supply. Many a time the fact that the expansion in money supply is responsible for the rising price levels is simply forgotten. The FAO Food Price index also illustrates this, having set a new all-time-high recently. Natural disasters, structural imbalances and a sharp increase in speculative demand were also crucial to the uptrend in soft commodity-prices. The correlation coefficient with the oil price has been 0.91 since 1991. On top of that, it seems like the FAO index is slightly leading in relation to oil, particularly when it comes to impulsive upswings.
  • That said, the wait-and-see stance taken by OPEC also contributed to the recent price increases. At its latest meeting, the organisation had indicated that it would only intervene from USD 100/barrel onwards. The fact that the ordinary meeting in March was cancelled would also suggest a further increase in prices until the next ordinary meeting in June, where we believe OPEC will step up production again. We do not think that the cartel would wish to provoke another price spike like in 2008.
  • On the demand side, China clearly remains the driving factor. The recent interest rate hikes and the numerous increases in the minimum reserve requirements are supposed to facilitate a “soft landing”, but have so far shown little success. In 2010 money supply was up 19.7%, and credit growth expanded by 18% (after 35% in 2009).
  • We remain critical of the blind faith in the Chinese economic engine. China can and will not be the single driving force of worldwide recovery, the sheet anchor and messiah of the global economy, or the only hope of oil demand. We will discuss the reasons for our bearish stance on China on the following pages.

Full report:

 

 

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Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:07 | 1036453 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Our economists are really smart:

 

Expensive oil is good!

Poor people will now be using the bus and their bikes a little bit more and this is good for the environment!

For the state it's also very good because of the revenue that helps them with their deficits and they would be a fool to let the price go down...

 

yes... the environment...

 

They repeat those morons idea's every hourover here on the radio...

consequences for the economy aren't really a thing to worry about...

and if they repeat it another 1000 times, most people will start to agree and soon we'll be wondering why 400$ oil isn't here it...

 

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:08 | 1036457 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

VXX 6%

 

 

This Bloomberg Report may give your portfolio a rise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/66709202/

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:09 | 1036463 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

You got the $5 gallon gasoline you wanted. Good by and good riddance Obama.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:13 | 1036484 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

"Good night.......and good luck"

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:20 | 1036510 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 You are deluded if you think anyone in the Oval Office can do anything about the price of gas....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:11 | 1036681 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The only thing scarier is that some people in the oval office think so too :/

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:15 | 1036685 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture
U.S. to Issue 'Handful' of Drilling Permits

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870345380457619100095107282...

 

You are deluded if you think they can't intentionally cause a rise in the price of anything.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:25 | 1036729 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Look buddy, instead of listening to asshats that say "Drill, baby, Drill" look at the data. Here is a link (sorry, its slow) that should tell you what is going on (I like it because it gathers a lot of info in one place)

http://fantazzini.narod.ru/useful_links.html#exp_dev_wells

Scroll down, there are about 6-7 charts pulled from the IEA...

There are more rotary oil rigs out running now than there has been since 1987 (when the data series started)

The number of wells being drilled is back to the level in mid-eighties, we are pin cushioning the country.... 

The cost of drilling is doing a moonshot....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:22 | 1036720 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I bet those Chevy Volts are just gonna start flying out of the lots now!

I wonder at what gas price those things become economical (if it fits your commute, of course)???

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:07 | 1036824 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

People aren't buying Volts for gas mileage (Prius is better and cheaper).

They're buying to make a political statement.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:09 | 1036830 JacksLackofSurprise
JacksLackofSurprise's picture

Not any cheaper under GWB, remember 2007-2008-- "Oil futures...skyrocketed, as the price of a single barrel went from around $60 in the middle of 2007 to a high of $147 in the summer of 2008."(1) 

This price manipulation is so far above the Puppet in Chief level.  Link below only scratches the surface but worth the read--GS not the only rat bastards. 

(1)  http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-great-american-bubble-machine-20100405?page=5 

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:10 | 1036470 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Trying for 2.50 on SSN.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:10 | 1036472 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

If average price for Brent is $124 for the year, what is the DOW average for the year?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1036487 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

16,000.... the HFT algos will make sure of it.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1036489 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Top notch report.... spotted one error in a quick cursory look

Manifa has the problem of too much trace Vanadium. Vanadium destroys the catalytic crackers in a standard refinery...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:15 | 1036496 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Reposted from an earlier thread:

Here is a toy model of oil pricing:

Oil price inelasticity = -0.06 to 0.07  i.e. 1% cut -> 14-16% price increase

Brent Price Jan 2005  ~$40

World Net Exports since Jan 2005 = ~ -9%

Dollar index  factor for time period: DXY  90/76

Predicted value of brent today:  $108 - $118

Absolutly fucking remarkable, eh?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:28 | 1036719 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

yes, when the aggregate dropped so close to one percent we seen a 10% pump rise to consumer. Just a outlier report. They will not admit it but I feel they are at 140.00 model margin. The point is big fish will eat small fish as bolt on revenue models. Plan ahead... seen it before

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:19 | 1036502 CPL
CPL's picture

Spare capacity in oil is much like listening to bums ask for spare change.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:20 | 1036506 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Average Brent for the full year. 124?

Hmmmmm, I guess they cannot come off sounding like doomers, can they?

200 and it will stay there once it breaches it.

Only the Militaries will be allowed cheap oil (their contracts are already in place a long time ago, BP major Pentagon supplier BTW).

Facts are about to get a wrenching change.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/09/axis-of-evil-doing/

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:21 | 1036508 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Excellent report.

And now for something completely different

No Fly Zone Update

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:22 | 1036512 ivars
ivars's picture

With Brent going up sharply again, we are in for second peak in this graph,

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609

commencing yesterday, and peaking at around April 1st with Brent crude STABLE above 125 USD, with a possible short spike to 135 USD somewhere near the top.

After that, another downturn to during May Brent 110-115, and then, in June-July upturn to 140-150 USD peak. The scale on the graph is 5-8% below what is really happening, but , if USD strengthens, may be realistic. USD will strengthen still in 2011. Its currency in which military protection of oil assets is bought.

The Stock market will of course move down all this time ( as it has started from February 18th) till middle May-middle June, with a small return before final realization the USA is heading for recession due to Oil prices and fiscal restraint, as easing to make oil more expensive and spend extra printed money on it makes no sense, as it does not contribute to growth:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608

I published the graphs on February 6th, so there is some predictive power in them already.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:26 | 1036535 OnTheWaterfront
OnTheWaterfront's picture

Kudlow save us!!!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:28 | 1036545 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Yeh we are almost out of oil, we don't know what to do. God help us. blah blah blah blah....Fear , fear , fear , fear.   Damn it, I feel like humbugging today. Does anyone want to put on the gloves? 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:30 | 1036555 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I've got time to go a few rounds....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:14 | 1036684 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

don't ya love how they keep misdefining peak oil as almost out?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:32 | 1036557 Cdad
Cdad's picture

[Cdad raises hand]

I do...neighbor...you fuck!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:32 | 1036563 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

perhaps you want to take off the gloves, Fight club style?

ORI

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:37 | 1036576 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I don't need know fuckin' gloves.  I own VXX up the ass!  I reduced silver so that I could buy the fucking dip! 

And your face will do just as well as any other...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:38 | 1036582 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

You are mean and feisty today Cdad....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:50 | 1036585 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You got that right, you twat.  Picked a bad day to quit smoking.

 

Additional:

What...no one wants a piece of me?  That is unusual.

Buy the fucking VXX you dip shits.  On a 90 day chart, there is a 31% fucking price dislocation...the result of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street naked short fucking selling the fucker into oblivion for the purpose of keeping the fraudulent rally going with their fucking Marxist tactics...the fucks!

So my point is...even if the market stabilizes right here [which I don't think it will]...this thing will probably continue to rise...you fuckheads!

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:54 | 1036630 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey, I picked up Apr 53 SSO puts yesterday... I got no bone to pick...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:01 | 1036641 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Flake,

What fucking good is that!  Go short a fucking casual dining stock, for fuck sake...as 4 fucking dollar fucking gas is coming no matter what fucking game the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street plays today.

You tell me...what is more fucking fun than shorting a shitty restaurant chain?  I hate fucking shitty restaurant chains!  Fucking short the lot of them...while the VXX carries you inexorably upward.

And fuck Marxism, too!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:02 | 1036646 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I play the game differently.... I got burned bad in Sept 08 being short 5000 shares of COF the day the fuckers changed the rules before the fucking botton fell out...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:04 | 1036650 Cdad
Cdad's picture

For fuck sake, Flak,

Re grow yer pair, fuckstick! 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:11 | 1036678 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

My pair is just fine, thankyou... Lets see how you deal with a $75,000 hit in one position in one day, when you were margined.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:32 | 1036559 ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

how can Erste calculate the oil price correctly (they see the future right? the amount of burned oil fields or a super duper democracy)

and couldnt see the money printing early enough ???? that makes no sense, even zero hedge knows better

 

they are either lying, or just plain making numbers up as we go

 

how much would oil cost if the whole middle east starts burning (good bye super duper democracy) and who ever relied on oil from middle east would have to find another supplier or use bikes like the dutch, or like the danish where they bike their kids in show on the way to school and work in the morning

 

but then again, having less cars on the road in the west is a nice thing

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:39 | 1036589 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Did you read my post? Predicting the price of oil is childs play in the limit of small excess production capacity....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:34 | 1036564 Elmer T Pudd
Elmer T Pudd's picture

"When the Levee Breaks".....LedZeppelin and Neil Young classic sound check/rehearsal in Cleveland

YouTube - Zeppelin & Neil Young RnR Hall Of Fame When The Levee Breaks

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:07 | 1036656 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Prefer the all Zep versions, myself... here's an alternate take you might enjoy:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDLfDzeDG2c

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:34 | 1036569 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

Karl Denniger is a friggin moron

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:38 | 1036577 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bad News:  We are now in a sell mode.

Good News:  Crude oil is finally crashing, giving much relief to retail stocks and airlines, which are celebrating this event as commodity stocks are now in full crash mode.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 16:15 | 1037716 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

always good to analyze million year energy source with one minute market

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:38 | 1036584 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Notice how JPM is unfazed today.

Why is that?

100% success rate at shorting gold and silver at the appropriate times, and cleaning out the CIGA's once again.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:17 | 1036704 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

remember, folks. as zh's resident genius - the old catfish mouth robo uber bull bear wannabe - told us, it's easy to make money in the market. all you have to do is buy jpm. of course, as far as is known, the old catfish doesn't own jpm, or at least he hasn't told us so as he has everything else about himself.

of course, the old catfish told us it was easy to make money before he told us it was "a jungle out there" which was before he told us it was easy which was before ..... well, you get the point.

btw: as i type jpm is down 2%. oil is down 2.5%.

odd that oil is crashing but jpm is unfazed even as they trade within 1/2% of each other.

what a fraud the girl is.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:21 | 1036864 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

yeah, the act is getting old, why does he still have rights to post graphs anyway, really cheapens the site.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:27 | 1036891 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You don't need to get this from Robo when you can get it all day long on the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] where the whole institutional game is the constant gentle establishment/movement of expectations.

That is what Robo is into.  That is what The Street is into.  The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street has only this product to show for itself...expectations.  And that is why they constantly move them around...so they can bag a few points on the spread.

As others refer to them, the parasite class...the class that makes nothing but somehow controls everything.  Well, except the price of silver, of course ;)

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:11 | 1037045 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, "cleaning them all out" all the way back to levels not seen since A WEEK AGO.

Why don't you ever talk about how the CIGA's are WINNING every time gold hits a fresh all time high, or how they are winning when silver hits a fresh 31 year high?

Oh, that's right, you are a slave to your bias.  Keep shorting it, catfish mouth.  Get what you deserve, your 7th bankruptcy in 5 years.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:40 | 1036586 pauldia
pauldia's picture

To all you loyal Democrat American Jews you now can refer to yourselves as "Jewicidal". Nice job thinking Rahm Emmanuel cared about anything more than self agrandizement. Not to mention the Saudi's who now see Obama as tilting toward fundamentalist Muslims & eschewing more liberal Musims. Next move, Netanyahu.

Obama accepts prospect of nuclear-armed Iran
DEBKAfile Special Report March 10, 2011, 2:42 PM (GMT+02:00).

http://www.debka.com/article/20747/

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:45 | 1036600 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

obama is nothing more than a zionist reptiod placed there to destroy us for when the annunaki return in 2012

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:59 | 1036638 BigJim
BigJim's picture

DEBKA are a propaganda arm of the Israeli government.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:26 | 1036700 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

All controlled western MSM is an Israel conspiracy...

 

And before you call me an anti-semitic...i'm technically not...i'm anti-cabalist/talmudic/criminal and you will all burn for your crimes against humanity.

We will find you and cull you.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:52 | 1036789 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Well I will admit to being anti-jooooo. They are like a foreign mafia controlling and manipulating whole nations and economies just because their race controls the printing presses fraudulently in many countries.

They have been kicked out of dozens of countries but hey.. it's never their fault.

Fack joooos and their juden fetzen.....really gas them all this time.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:55 | 1036798 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

I'm pro-humanity = anti-Israel.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:59 | 1037006 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Be an anti-semite... that only makes you a pathetic bigot, lots of those around. But denying the holocaust makes you more than a bigot, it makes you all but complicit in their crimes against humanity.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:31 | 1036890 pauldia
pauldia's picture

I junked you but really you're not even with the effort. Zero hedge is a fabulous site , but, it seems to attract the anti-Semite neanderthal element and that is the reason I wish this site would at least have a modest posting policy. Really, for those sub-human fecal matter ameba's genetically related to Charles Manson please go find some fellow travellers at your local Neo Nazi or skin head chapter.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:47 | 1036610 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

The US (or at least the people who run the show) want Libya's oil. The price doesn't matter. The cost doesn't matter.

We had people "on the ground" in Libya before the uprising and most likely supplied weapons as well. This is an orchestrated event which will end up granting the same type of leases to oil companies that we see in Iraq.

The poster above was right when he said the Chief Executive doesn't control the price of oil. The President is on board with the banks, the oil companies, and the Powers behind them, like every President before him. We'll take that oil, and if the price goes higher it's just all that much better isn't it?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 11:58 | 1036636 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I think you are probably right. Gadaffi was supposed to go. But he didn't. Now he a bigger problem than he was before this all started. You know he is moving around a lot and not talking on his cell phone etc...They are trying to target him now, I would think.  He is a crafty old geezer and he will be harder to deal with than Saddam because he learned from what we did there and he knows our game plan......

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:06 | 1036660 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Gadaffi was supposed to go?  Where?  Who would have taken him and his 12,000 strong force of security fucks?  Huh?

He was never going to leave.  He will burn in place.

Shoulda bought some nic fucking gum!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:59 | 1036805 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Actually, he propped up lots of regimes throughout the region... but I think he'd rather burn the oil and its infrastructure than let his old enemies have it...good for him!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:52 | 1036973 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Yes he has. If this thing continues, the whole of Africa may go up in flames. It could spread very easily.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:17 | 1036702 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Reports of nerve gas being used on crowds in Yemen.

http://news.antiwar.com/2011/03/09/doctors-yemen-used-nerve-gas-against-...

 

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:18 | 1036707 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Good!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:34 | 1036747 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

-1

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:42 | 1036774 Armando Javier ...
Armando Javier Finkeltein of the Boise Finkelsteins's picture

At least there is some good news today

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:55 | 1036792 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

-2

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:02 | 1036815 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Is that you, Ali?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:26 | 1036726 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

What do Greenspan, Kohn, dudley, etc and well all of the fed govs and chairman have in common? Thats right....there all JEWS. I kid you not goin back to 1913 only one non-jewchairman. So how does 1% of world population account for so much control? hmmm 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 12:56 | 1036800 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

joo bankers suck ass.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:40 | 1037194 dejapfc
dejapfc's picture

Actually we suck ass for letting these joos get rich on our backs,and get away with it ....how about that!?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:06 | 1037026 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Hmmmm, who put them in the chairsatan spot? It is a christian conspiracy to make it appear as if jews run the show but jews answer to their cristian masters.

How's that for a conspiracy theory. Oh no, it is true. I can back it up with facts and statistics (selectively) to prove my position. :) Oh, I've got another one... It was Christ that murdered the jews. Shit, no, it was the cristians that murdered the Armenians. I mean it was the Armenian's fault that they were slaughtered by...mmmm...let me see....Portuguese

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:01 | 1036812 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

i'll say it again, as hopefully this time i'll get a better response- short this market! names i'm looking to short: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/short-this-market-ill-say-it-again-which-names-to-short

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:21 | 1036868 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

just wait until the Day of Rage, that is gonna shock oil prices up.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 13:56 | 1037001 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yeah...I hate to interrupt all your antisemitism and such, but this thread is about oil, and I thought I'd let all you fucks know that the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] just put out a NEW EXPECTATION.  So hold on to your socks now.

Anyway, as expressed on the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] by Oppenheimer fuckstick Carter Worth.  It goes like this...

After 3-4 weeks of the Ministry telling us that rising oil prices indicated economic growth, and everything was cool unless oil hit like $300 per barrel,  Carter Worth just put out the vibe that with oil down [to $102 per freakin' barrel], the expectations becomes that if oil does not rise, equities will like this.  Okay...reread that last sentence now.

I know, I know, it gets really fucking twisted in here.  My point is only that the oil discussion is changing at the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street...and so that changing theme needs close monitoring.  In the meantime, in the physical world of crack spreads and big oil, $4+ gasoline is already in our summer pipeline.  Thank you criminal syndicate :)  Love ya!

Anyway, and for successful short term trading, I think you have to ignore fucking oil right now.  This changing of expectations...its just the first pass by fuckwad Carter Worth. 

Just sayin'!

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:03 | 1037022 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Oh oh oh...and since Oppenheimer fucking terminator algo's just turned on on this most recent attempt to blow smoke [ooooh] up your dumb fuck ass, watch for the print of $131.17 on the Roach Motel [which is the SPY you fuck].

When you see that print, that is when you want to buy the fuck out of the VXX...which as I told you earlier today is dislocated to the downside to the tune of 31% or so...because of the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street, their creation unit machines, and such.

We should be so lucky as to get that print on the Roach Motel...because if we do, all of our wildest bear dreams will come true, and then I can tune the fuck out and get drunk for the rest of this shitty non-smoking fucking day.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:04 | 1037024 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Yeah, Wall street is a criminal syndicate... now, dispute these two facts:

1) Since 2005, world Net oil exports are down ~9%

2) Since 2005, the total of what we can oil has been flat in energy content. The volume of liquids has marginally risen, but the energy content is flat.

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:26 | 1037112 Cdad
Cdad's picture

 the total of what we can oil has been

OK Flak...I am trying to be patient...but...what the fuck are you talking about?  Peak oil?  Have you not been paying attention to "the tape" put forth by the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street?  Oil is down, and your troubles are over, unless oil is an indicator of growth, in which case you are fucked...so you better reach out to Carter Fucking Worth...you know, in order to restore order to chaos...and for a fee I'm sure he will help you...dickwad!

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:32 | 1037141 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Where did I say peak oil?

The mere fact that you do not know what is called "oil" is the tell.

Do you know what the following are?

  1. NGL, natural gas liquids
  2. C+C, crude + condensate
  3. Refinery gains
  4. Unconventional crude

If you the BLS plays games, you ain't seen nothing until you dissect the IEA and EIA information...

 

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:34 | 1037161 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If you this the BLS plays games

Again Flak...what the fuck are you talking about?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:38 | 1037179 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Take 5 minutes to read the following:

http://flakmeister.blogspot.com/

I am more than willing to address your questions.

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:42 | 1037203 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Your blog?  You think I am interested in your blog?  You fuck!

You think I'll take your link?  Where are you right now, FlakFuck?  I'll be right over...

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:44 | 1037224 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Well, why don't educate yourself about what I am talking about then.

Ever notice that your mileage with E10 was a little worse than before?

In essence, that's what is going on....

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:47 | 1037246 Flakmeister
Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:43 | 1037212 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

You Jews own this fake debate

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:09 | 1037038 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

anti-semi wa?

Gentiles own the Jews or did you not notice the switch?

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 14:21 | 1037097 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Fuck off you twat!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!