ES Force Ramped Above 150 DMA, At 10 Points Divergence To Risk Basket

Tyler Durden's picture

Today's ramp in stocks, courtesy of the ES, was purely an attempt to force technical short covering at the 150 DMA which was just retaken, as was the April 18 swing low, as well as 1.44 on the EURUSD. Yet on the other hand, theispersion between ES and the broader risk index is now at a 2 day wide, or about 10 S&P points. It seems that stocks are once again doing their headless chicken dance certain that either the Greek vote of confidence will pass, or Bernanke will announce QE3 tomorrow, or both, while everything else is reacting in a far more subdued. The two technicals heading into the close will be the push to close the spread on one hand, and the ongoing short covering from the 150 DMA on the other, as well as the second consecutive day in a row with a 150 pip move higher in the EURUSD on Chinese buying.

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mclee's picture

what does this mean?

qussl3's picture

Means more taxes for you when the bankers blow it all to smithereens again.

WWould you like some KY with that?

mclee's picture

I am not US citizen, no tax from me

qussl3's picture

Well just plain ole inflation for you then.

qussl3's picture

Dupe.

It appears inflation persists in the digital realm too.

AbandonShip's picture

sell the orange line and buy the white one

LowProfile's picture

How does someone w/o a BB terminal do this, and track it?

chartcruzer's picture

Tyler's chart is awefully short term (day trading mode).   I could set up a comparison chart for you in the ETF DB if it's important.  send mail to chartcruzer@yahoo.com See the set at,,,

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show&disp=p

slightly longer term you can see the relationship of other US risk markets to the SPX (the ES futures is a close approx.)

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s164302276]&disp=P

bottom line is tech is getting it's ass kicked.

LowProfile's picture

Thanks, I suspected it was something you'd want to watch closely.

"retail trader" seems to have been an oxymoron for a very long time...

bigwavedave's picture

or.... buy the orange line and buy double the white line.

qussl3's picture

Or run the fuck away, cos when you need the liquidity to get out brother GS is doing the Lord's work.

TempFlashback's picture

It is just a relative value trade. The trade is looking for observed divergence (see headline and chart) to converge.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Risk on, ahead of currency collapse?

PY-129-20's picture

All or nothing. 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers and a single green zero. Place your bet, now!

John Law Lives's picture

That is a European roulette wheel.

EU = FUBAR

daneskold's picture

JPMorgan gets hit with $3 Billion lawsuit form NCUA today.

No market reaction whatsoever.

Presumably $3 bill hit to JPM isn't material.

Prof Gulliver's picture

Ben will just pay it anyway. Remember, we privatize gains, socialize losses.

buzzsaw99's picture

This time and the last time this chart was posted seems back asswards to me. both times the index appears to be outperforming the "risk basket" yet the text indicates the opposite.

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

The ouperformance is transitory.

Village Smithy's picture

It must suck to be Institutional right now with all these rats screwing with your time tested technicals. These guys may actually have to come in the mornings prepared to do some work rather than just sitting around ogling all the summer interns that they just hired.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

damn it feels good to be a gangster, eh

Manzilla's picture

Ye of little faith. One of the key qualities of the institutional guys is that they can do both.

6 String's picture

I've been on the road, only noticing on CNN that the market goes up nearly everyday while they broadcast no other information on Gold, Silver, or anything else, including important and newsworthy stories. Seriously, you can't blame the busy sheeple for having no clue. How could they?

Anyway, amazed at the 10 year, pinned below 3% while the market rallies everyday. Amazing.

So, I haven't missed a beat in 6 days. All is as is....everything is purely WTF.

Ah...well, back to hitting the road. I can't follow the bullshit everything right now--it's too painful, especially as the R2K heads to 2000. Allocating capital when all is a big fucking farce ruled by deperate and despotic madmen that will do anything and more importantly can do anything they want is nearly impossible.

 

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Probably gonna step into a little VXX around 3PM.  Will add more if we get back up near 1340.  Anyone see any upside that's not already priced in?

qussl3's picture

China AND Japan announcing they will be buying Greek crap.

HITMAN56's picture

re-loaded VXX myself a bit ago

Boilermaker's picture

This is fucking RIDICULOUS.

Oh, and the REITs are fucking soaring like fuck also.

 

Cdad's picture

An ill-advised rally ahead of the Federal Reserve Bank's mandated "deflationary" wave called the end of QE2.  Seems to me that a lot of "special" algo's forgot the playbook for QE3.  

In the meatime, West Texas crude just took a curiously strong dump.  Let me guess...bullish?

qussl3's picture

Exactly, if more expansion was really on the cards, Gold and Silver would be frontrun by now.

At minimum we get no expansion plus no tightening bias, the risk is a more hawish FED not more easing, more easing now would be open debasement, something even Banana Ben isnt insane enough to attempt - yet.

skepticCarl's picture

This is a strong, wide spread bounce today, not only in stocks, but in precious metals and commodities.  Although I think that we have more down to go in the intermediate term (>3 pmonths), stocks and commodities probably will go higher in the short term (>2 weeks).

qussl3's picture

The "investors" are pricing in heli-ben becoming banana ben tomorrow.

chartcruzer's picture

this is just a fake out

long term still on sell - note the PSAR

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P

short term still on sell

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162488959]&disp=P

will use this to load up short - yum...  like shooting fish in a barrell (without QE3 that is)

 

HelluvaEngineer's picture

I still don't understand why Ben would need any justification for QE3.

Cdad's picture

What he needs for QE3 is a stronger US dollar...so that he can devalue it again without plunging into a disorderly dollar decline.  Higher dollar, lower equities, ta da...justification.

skepticCarl's picture

Chartcruzer, your charts are terrific, and I gave them the top vote.

But, could you comment on why they show a short term sell?  It looks to me like a short term oversold condition, very ripe for a short term bounce. TIA

thetrader's picture

nice pop past 2 days, just like we wrote, after having reached nice support levels, market has been nice nice, if u followed Risk On on www.thetrader.se

partimer1's picture

Oversold bounce. prepare for big Ben tomorrow. we either go down really hard tomorrow and next day, or linger to up for another week, then go down hard.  

stirners_ghost's picture

YTD chart of the indices needs a right shoulder...

SwissNico's picture

can anyone give the bloomberg details of this CIX so we can recreate it?

or can anyone share it with me?

jesus_quintana's picture

Might be way off beam here as I've never seen the calc given - but indexed to last night's SPX (not ES) close, I'm guessing something like:

((15.06239 * AUDJPY Curncy) + (893.7081 * EURUSD Curncy) + (432.1704 * USGG10YR Index) + (948.5494 * .T21030 U Index) + (13.70748 * CL1 Comdty) + (0.830293 * GOLDS Comdty)) / 6

You need to create the butterfly CIX (.T21030 above) first btw: 2 * USGG10YR Index - USGG2YR Index - USGG30YR Index

I'm basically just multiplying the closes of the constituents to the SPX close and taking the average, someone out there might have a better answer?

dracos_ghost's picture

End of quarter coming up. Need to get back to 0% (~ 1330 on SPX). Fund managers need to keep the natives soothed with their quarterly reports of happy,happy,happy.

sbenard's picture

Oh goody! It's another Pollyanna Party!

sbenard's picture

QEInfinity, anyone? Sorry, we're calling it "rate caps" now!

thetrader's picture

this from earlier


Hearing large US Bank buying mini S&P here, big buy order GS buying
GS now on the offer, from NY desk

qussl3's picture

Squeez'em and then dump'em.

Cdad's picture

as well as the second consecutive day in a row with a 150 pip move higher in the EURUSD on Chinese buying.

I would suggest that if this is true, then the Euro should be sold aggressively.  China is the worst capital allocator on the globe...bar none.

Cdad's picture

I challenge anyone to put up a one day chart of the FXE [ETF for long Euro] and then fill up the chart with typical technical indicators [DeMarks, MACD, RSI, etc]...and then suggest a going forward long thesis for that ETF into the close.

Seriously, if you can make sense of the entirely FUBAR and contrary technical signals coming out of that thing, I'd really like to hear your day trading thesis for buying it.

Mine is...and after drinking a nice cup of mushroom tea...crocodile algo.

[The desperation in this market is so clear in so many ways today.]

qussl3's picture

The only reason they need to pump it up is "news" of Chinese and Japs on the bid to "support" Greece.