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ES Force Ramped Above 150 DMA, At 10 Points Divergence To Risk Basket
Today's ramp in stocks, courtesy of the ES, was purely an attempt to force technical short covering at the 150 DMA which was just retaken, as was the April 18 swing low, as well as 1.44 on the EURUSD. Yet on the other hand, theispersion between ES and the broader risk index is now at a 2 day wide, or about 10 S&P points. It seems that stocks are once again doing their headless chicken dance certain that either the Greek vote of confidence will pass, or Bernanke will announce QE3 tomorrow, or both, while everything else is reacting in a far more subdued. The two technicals heading into the close will be the push to close the spread on one hand, and the ongoing short covering from the 150 DMA on the other, as well as the second consecutive day in a row with a 150 pip move higher in the EURUSD on Chinese buying.
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what does this mean?
Means more taxes for you when the bankers blow it all to smithereens again.
WWould you like some KY with that?
I am not US citizen, no tax from me
Well just plain ole inflation for you then.
Dupe.
It appears inflation persists in the digital realm too.
sell the orange line and buy the white one
How does someone w/o a BB terminal do this, and track it?
Tyler's chart is awefully short term (day trading mode). I could set up a comparison chart for you in the ETF DB if it's important. send mail to chartcruzer@yahoo.com See the set at,,,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show&disp=p
slightly longer term you can see the relationship of other US risk markets to the SPX (the ES futures is a close approx.)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s164302276]&disp=P
bottom line is tech is getting it's ass kicked.
Thanks, I suspected it was something you'd want to watch closely.
"retail trader" seems to have been an oxymoron for a very long time...
or.... buy the orange line and buy double the white line.
Or run the fuck away, cos when you need the liquidity to get out brother GS is doing the Lord's work.
Lol
It is just a relative value trade. The trade is looking for observed divergence (see headline and chart) to converge.
Risk on, ahead of currency collapse?
All or nothing. 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers and a single green zero. Place your bet, now!
That is a European roulette wheel.
EU = FUBAR
JPMorgan gets hit with $3 Billion lawsuit form NCUA today.
No market reaction whatsoever.
Presumably $3 bill hit to JPM isn't material.
Ben will just pay it anyway. Remember, we privatize gains, socialize losses.
This time and the last time this chart was posted seems back asswards to me. both times the index appears to be outperforming the "risk basket" yet the text indicates the opposite.
The ouperformance is transitory.
It must suck to be Institutional right now with all these rats screwing with your time tested technicals. These guys may actually have to come in the mornings prepared to do some work rather than just sitting around ogling all the summer interns that they just hired.
damn it feels good to be a gangster, eh
it does.
Ye of little faith. One of the key qualities of the institutional guys is that they can do both.
I've been on the road, only noticing on CNN that the market goes up nearly everyday while they broadcast no other information on Gold, Silver, or anything else, including important and newsworthy stories. Seriously, you can't blame the busy sheeple for having no clue. How could they?
Anyway, amazed at the 10 year, pinned below 3% while the market rallies everyday. Amazing.
So, I haven't missed a beat in 6 days. All is as is....everything is purely WTF.
Ah...well, back to hitting the road. I can't follow the bullshit everything right now--it's too painful, especially as the R2K heads to 2000. Allocating capital when all is a big fucking farce ruled by deperate and despotic madmen that will do anything and more importantly can do anything they want is nearly impossible.
Probably gonna step into a little VXX around 3PM. Will add more if we get back up near 1340. Anyone see any upside that's not already priced in?
China AND Japan announcing they will be buying Greek crap.
re-loaded VXX myself a bit ago
This is fucking RIDICULOUS.
Oh, and the REITs are fucking soaring like fuck also.
An ill-advised rally ahead of the Federal Reserve Bank's mandated "deflationary" wave called the end of QE2. Seems to me that a lot of "special" algo's forgot the playbook for QE3.
In the meatime, West Texas crude just took a curiously strong dump. Let me guess...bullish?
Exactly, if more expansion was really on the cards, Gold and Silver would be frontrun by now.
At minimum we get no expansion plus no tightening bias, the risk is a more hawish FED not more easing, more easing now would be open debasement, something even Banana Ben isnt insane enough to attempt - yet.
This is a strong, wide spread bounce today, not only in stocks, but in precious metals and commodities. Although I think that we have more down to go in the intermediate term (>3 pmonths), stocks and commodities probably will go higher in the short term (>2 weeks).
The "investors" are pricing in heli-ben becoming banana ben tomorrow.
this is just a fake out
long term still on sell - note the PSAR
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P
short term still on sell
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s162488959]&disp=P
will use this to load up short - yum... like shooting fish in a barrell (without QE3 that is)
I still don't understand why Ben would need any justification for QE3.
What he needs for QE3 is a stronger US dollar...so that he can devalue it again without plunging into a disorderly dollar decline. Higher dollar, lower equities, ta da...justification.
Chartcruzer, your charts are terrific, and I gave them the top vote.
But, could you comment on why they show a short term sell? It looks to me like a short term oversold condition, very ripe for a short term bounce. TIA
nice pop past 2 days, just like we wrote, after having reached nice support levels, market has been nice nice, if u followed Risk On on www.thetrader.se
Oversold bounce. prepare for big Ben tomorrow. we either go down really hard tomorrow and next day, or linger to up for another week, then go down hard.
YTD chart of the indices needs a right shoulder...
can anyone give the bloomberg details of this CIX so we can recreate it?
or can anyone share it with me?
Might be way off beam here as I've never seen the calc given - but indexed to last night's SPX (not ES) close, I'm guessing something like:
((15.06239 * AUDJPY Curncy) + (893.7081 * EURUSD Curncy) + (432.1704 * USGG10YR Index) + (948.5494 * .T21030 U Index) + (13.70748 * CL1 Comdty) + (0.830293 * GOLDS Comdty)) / 6
You need to create the butterfly CIX (.T21030 above) first btw: 2 * USGG10YR Index - USGG2YR Index - USGG30YR Index
I'm basically just multiplying the closes of the constituents to the SPX close and taking the average, someone out there might have a better answer?
End of quarter coming up. Need to get back to 0% (~ 1330 on SPX). Fund managers need to keep the natives soothed with their quarterly reports of happy,happy,happy.
Oh goody! It's another Pollyanna Party!
QEInfinity, anyone? Sorry, we're calling it "rate caps" now!
this from earlier
Hearing large US Bank buying mini S&P here, big buy order GS buying
GS now on the offer, from NY desk
Squeez'em and then dump'em.
I would suggest that if this is true, then the Euro should be sold aggressively. China is the worst capital allocator on the globe...bar none.
I challenge anyone to put up a one day chart of the FXE [ETF for long Euro] and then fill up the chart with typical technical indicators [DeMarks, MACD, RSI, etc]...and then suggest a going forward long thesis for that ETF into the close.
Seriously, if you can make sense of the entirely FUBAR and contrary technical signals coming out of that thing, I'd really like to hear your day trading thesis for buying it.
Mine is...and after drinking a nice cup of mushroom tea...crocodile algo.
[The desperation in this market is so clear in so many ways today.]
The only reason they need to pump it up is "news" of Chinese and Japs on the bid to "support" Greece.
Will it be wrong to laugh when this move is completely reversed tomorrow after the Greeks vote down Papaandthenose?
It's likely to be reversed even if the vote passes, this vote doesnt have any money behind it lol.
The Bancheros can amass as much as they want...toilet paper...!
What they have coming...no one will see it, until its too late, that is!
The bond market is calling "bullshit" to all of this.
Long bond yield is not even budging.
...by jove (and as usual) you know it TD!!!!
Think the FOMC starts targeting for a higher dollar. As the low dollar is chocking off economic activity worldwide by causing commodity prices to rise. Lets see what the FOMC does tommorrow!!!
Edit: double post
If the markets can rally wih crude going down its a whole new ballgame. Buy all the stuff that has been crushed the last 6 months as all the cash flowed into commodities (oil). Cars, steel, gold stocks (not physical) airlines and sox.
One possible bullish catalyst is oil. The last time the saudi's got pissed they drove the price of crude to $10. While they wont get it there this time if they manage 75 equities are going to rip. If I was short equities I would be praying for the good health of ghadaffi (sp?) if libya's 1.6 million barrels a day comes ack on line it will crush oil. obamas campaign knows that 2.89 at the pump is gonna get him another term.
$4.50 and he'll be packing his bags