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ES Volume 30% Below Average, Market Surges, As ES-EURJPY Spreads Collapses
Skynet has realized that once again nobody is trading, and with ES volume at 1.18mm 30% lower than the average through this point in the day, the market is surging. No surprise there. The computers know too well that a crash from a higher position is much better than from a lower one, all else being equal. What is surprising is that the EURJPY to ES spread, which we pointed out yesterday blew out to unprecedented levels, is on its way to collapsing. If a trade as simple as this is what drives the market, then it is certain that not only computers, but really dumb computers are in charge. Although in retrospect, judging by Irene "Cash Cow" Aldridge's spirited defense of HFT earlier on CNBC (sorry, we are not going to give industry lobbyist more free air time), not even this fact should surprise us.
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Thanks Tyler...shows how weak ES really is....takes more and more EUR/JPY to pull up ES....classic distributuion...
More and more EUR/JPY ? Crash ? I am waiting for more than 4 weeks for this ominous crash to happen...
GM and Ford selling more cars than last year - surprise, surprise! Pending home sales surge on a tax credit - another surprise! And BP stopped the oil leak. Oh, they didn't? Even more the reason to rally!
And I quote:
more on easy yoy comps:
more
more
And, in a marvelous bout of foreshadowing of impending doom:
Maybe this guy hasn't seen the NY Times piece from last week about people not paying their mortgages or the option ARM mortgage resets that are headed our way.
Those are just minor details. Right Harry?
Any chance that the market just wants to go up from this level for a while? Dead cat bounce or early cyclical bull, either way, I sometimes wonder if we're trying too hard to hate this market. Thoughts?
Markets running on presentation of positive job picture ...
ADP Employment Report tomorrow ... +70K jobs ...
Employment Situation Summary Friday ... unemployment rate drop to 9.8% and +425K jobs ...
We shall see ...
BP is actually employing a lot of people right now for some time to come :)
That should at least push up the number by +50.000
Yes and all the money spent on cleanup goods and services adds to GDP, too.
What a great country!!!
You have to offset all the ones out of work because they can't do their job due to the oil spill...hotels, shops, fisherman, etc
It's a free country (at least that's what we're told), so you're welcome to love it. Me? I tend to distance myself from fraud and mischief and government-sponsored moral hazard. I won't be the first person to describe the stock markets as a casino, but I could say it in every post and it would still not be enough. Our government, working hand-in-hand with the banking kleptocracy, are going to bankrupt America's middle class. So, love this equity craps table or hate it, but that's my analysis.
I suspect you're right, or will be over the long run (in which we're all dead...). I just have an aversion to certainty. Whenever anyone is absolutely sure how things will go down, and when they also top it off with herd-approved jargon, I get suspicious. What if the financial meltdown/structural bear takes 50 years? All the gold bugs and stock bears on this site will be right, but dead. Then again, it could all go to shit in a couple of years in which case bears will assume they are geniuses. I just don't trust the person who claims to knowwhat's going to happen. It's my only beef with the replies to posts on this site. No offence intended, just trying to figure out what's really going to happen.
Tune into CNBS, listen to the next Presidential address or read some GS research.
However long it will take, judging by 2000, we're about 10 years into it. Try to find someone in commerical real estate (except the IB's underwriting new stock and debt issuance) who is doing well right now. See if you can find some small local businesses (other than bankruptcy lawyers) who are growing at double digits.
Money isn't everything and, soon, it may be nothing.
None taken and me too!
Agreed. Again, I agree with your points... just sometimes feels like the bear camp is getting a bit crowded. Doesn't mean I'm changing my convictions (heck, I don't even own a TV, so CNBC is out of the question). I guess it's that I agree so totally with the bearish argument, that I want to try to punch some holes in it, just to make sure.
In fact I spent the morning compiling a list of all of my favorite economic and financial indicators (about 30 in all). I then tracked down original/primary sources for data. I'll tinker with the model from here on out. But, it's broadcasting full on bearishness. I'm trying to sift out my own bias and try to let the data instruct me.
BTW, I'm long gold and short SPY.
Peace, and thanks for your comments!
The age-old adage is "don't fight The Fed". This was true when it simply referred to interest rates and liquidity.
Now, with the Fed directly intervening in almost every market (ES, FX, UST, gold et al), you would be foolish to simply stay short anything and wait it out. The Fed will hand your ass to you and stop you out well before you are proven correct with your short.
Stay nimble. The trend in everything except gold is down. But only keep a negative bias. 100-200% short every day will not work.
Until the spigot is turned off in the gulf, I see no reason to get excited about anything related to the stock market.
I told you, it's not dumb computers, it's Trade Federation droids.
Soon Ani is going to show up and do some barrel rolls in his racing pod, and then I'm going to rip my keyboard off my trading computer and ram it through my forehead.
I'm sick of the manipulation of the Euro. It's crap I tells ya.
I'm sick of it, too, but the line has been drawn at 1.2150 and there is little anyone can do about it. It will take an astronomical amount of selling (that's a big Twinkie) ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V13CZnUCOaQ) to shove the euro below 1.21 and set off the stops that are below.
Kind of like the DOW line has been drawn at 10,000
But they do have a nice gold trim : http://dynamods.com/images/uploads/1%20Euro.jpg
FOOLS GOLD I TELL YA!
Someone just asked Buffett why he calls CDS weapons of mass destruction but buys derivatives.
His answer: To make money.
If the camera angle is just right you can actually catch a glimpse of Becky Quick, under the table, sucking off the old boy just to keep him awake.
LOL!!
I would let Betty Quick blow me while watching Skynet pump the markets so that I can short both the market and Betty's looks.
And only Warren the hypocrite should be allowed to trade in them. He sucks more than Becky.
He's up there joking and having a cherry coke and smile. My father used to tell me the tale of the great genius that is Buffett when I was a child now I can see he was simply smart enough to build a better costume than the rest of the thieves.
+ a fucking thousand!
Word
Nobody likes a typical financier like Blankfein who looks evil and is a jew, but look at a good all American like Buffet who 'aint nothin more' than a Westerner, and people forget he's a financier!
Nice bollinger bands. 400-period setting eh?
what time frame are the volume averages taken over? Seems like low volume up days have been the norm for so long that the averages would be dropping
(btw captcha quiz is still limited to 2 characters, while generally requiring an answer > 2 chars)
the volume averages are incorrect. I think tyler is using like a 10-20 period avg and comparing it to a one period figure on a one-minute chart.
obviously volume over one minute will be less than avg volume over 10-20 minutes. You guys should fix your bloomberg defaults.
someone posted about Buffett being in the early stages of dementia......perhaps there is some truth to that. not hard to believe....
Well it looks like that for the summer months unemployment will go down because guys remeber from now till Novemeber most of the stimulus will be spent. I am a noob to this and you guys in ZH seem to be experts,so I have a question. What do you guys see happening in the next six months to the markets and the economy in general? And will we face a the super crash that is expected? And will the cause be the sovereign debt crisis excellerating and the poping of the Chinses super bubble?
Nice late day shot in the arm of blind buying in the markets today.
Did you all buy the dip? LOL!
Leo - there were plenty of "dips" when the DJI fell from 11k to 10k - so no I didn't buy (but I'm not going to stand in the way and short while Barry proclaims that the economy is getting better this Friday). You might be correct about Chinese solars but with comments like "did you buy a dip" when these +/- 100/200 point swings are becoming more joke than algorithm you're dangerously close to falling into HarryWanger territory with your commentary.
Is something looking bullish ?
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1