EU Debt Restructuring Leads to Bailout Euphoria / Silver to Double to $100 Say Citigroup

Tyler Durden's picture

From GoldCore

EU Debt Restructuring Leads to Bailout Euphoria / Silver to Double to $100 Say Citigroup

Bailout euphoria has returned to markets with Asian and European stock indices rising on renewed risk appetite.

Gold has recovered from yesterday’s slight sell off (0.6% in USD) and the firm gold price in all currencies suggests that market euphoria is again misplaced. Gold is down only 20 euros per ounce in the last 24 hours. Gold is trading at USD 1,596.10, EUR 1,108.1, GBP 978.50 and CHF 1,310.10 per ounce.


Cross Currency Rates

Along with stocks, European bonds are being bought with gusto. Yields in Greece have plummeted while yields in Ireland and Portugal have fallen sharply. German bunds have been sold and the yield on the German 10 year has risen from 2.5% to 2.88% since last Tuesday (July 12th)

The failure to address the risk of insolvency in Greece, Portugal and Ireland means that the risk of contagion has been delayed but remains.


Real contagion risks remain as do currency risks. The dollar and the euro remain vulnerable to further debasement and depreciation.

With all eyes on Brussels, myopia has returned to markets particularly with regard to the serious fiscal and monetary challenges continuing in Washington.

Another sign of silver’s move from the fringe of hard money advocates and more risk averse investors and savers to the mainstream is seen in Citigroup technical analysis of the silver market which was picked up by Bloomberg.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. have said that if silver follows similar patterns as seen in silver’s last bull market from 1971 to 1980 than silver could double to over $100 per ounce.


“If the final rally in the last bull market repeated then we can expect $100 over the long term,” Tom Fitzpatrick and two other analysts wrote. “While the high so far this year was at the same level as the peak in January 1980, we are not convinced that the long-term trend is over yet.”

Most institutional players and Wall Street banks have been bearish on silver and have called the silver market wrong for years.

Some have very large concentrated short positions which have been investigated by the CFTC and were likely “talking their book.”

Therefore, it is very unusual to see such a bullish call from a major bank and suggests that at least some of the major banks see the writing on the wall regarding much higher silver prices. They are likely positioning themselves accordingly.

This means that the banks with concentrated short positions, such as JP Morgan, may soon see their silver positions incur even greater losses  and we may see the much heralded short squeeze propel silver to much higher prices.

Our long held target for silver of $140 per ounce, the real inflation adjusted high from 1980, remains viable and becomes more likely by the day.

NEWS

(Bloomberg) -- Gold May Gain on U.S., European Debt Concerns, Survey Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-21/gold-may-gain-on-u-s-european-debt-concerns-survey-shows.html

(MarketWatch) -- Gold, silver tick higher in electronic trading
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-silver-tick-higher-in-electronic-trading-2011-07-22?link=MW_latest_news

(Bloomberg) -- Silver May Rebound to Test $100 Level, Citigroup Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-22/silver-may-more-than-double-to-100-citigroup-says-technical-analysis.html

Silver May Rebound to Test $100 Level, Citigroup Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-22/silver-may-more-than-double-to-100-citigroup-says-technical-analysis.html

COMMENTARY

(MarketWatch) -- Silver Will Continue to Win Investors’ Attention Along With Gold
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silvers-a-worthy-gold-rival-2011-07-22?pagenumber=2

(Financial Times) -- Financial Times - Moore, Wienberg and Jessop on the Outlook for Gold Prices
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/84edf710-b395-11e0-b56c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1SoteSdsn

(ZeroHedge) -- Guest Post: David Morgan On Silver Price Manipulation, Delivery Default & Supply Shortage Risks
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-david-morgan-silver-price-manipulation-delivery-default-supply-shortage-risks

(24HGold) -- The Global Physical Gold & Silver Reserves Race is the New Nuclear Arms Race http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-global-physical-gold--silver-reserves-race-is-the-new-nuclear-arms-race.aspx?article=3576863098G10020&redirect=false&contributor=JS+Kim

(ZeroHedge) -- The Fatal Flaw In Europe's Second "Bazooka" Bailout: 82 Million Soon To Be Very Angry Germans, Or How Euro Bailout #2 Could Cost Up To 56% Of German GDP
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fatal-flaw-europes-second-bazooka-bailout-82-million-soon-be-very-angry-germans

(Mineweb) -- Jury rules US Govt. confiscation of rare double-eagle $20 gold coins legal
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=132055&sn=Detail&pid=102055

(Bloomberg) -- James Grant: Return to the Gold Standard - "This is not a threat, this is not a promise, this is going to happen"
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72621750/

Psychological Barriers In Gold Prices? ($1,600 Gold) - Brian Lucey and Raj Aggarwal
http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/psychogold.pdf

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Ancona's picture

That's old news Daddy-O.

I've been long physical for years.

High Plains Drifter's picture

i got on this bull early and its been mostly fun except for 2008. but i kept the faith, armed mainly with the knowledge that these criminals are going to do what it is they do and when they are done, then we have to do what we have to do.

narapoiddyslexia's picture

I didn't start buying physical silver until I stumbled across this site in the Spring of 2010. So I am a little in debt to this locale. Right now, I'm still buying although I try to pick short-term lows. Its hard for me to do this successfully, as it always seems to go down more after I add to my cache. Still, buying more silver coinage of one type or another is not a bad idea. Unlike fiat, it will always have some value, and for this reason alone its a good buy. All of the various analyses have little to add, it seems to me, and are of little value except to traders.

Ghordius's picture

I would meddle in silver if the CB's would, too.

Never forget how small silver is (compared to gold), yes, it makes it more volatile and exciting, still, it is "softer" money.

The Silverites, if I understood it correctly, where against gold because it was too "hard".

Cole Younger's picture

TSilver and gold go hand in hand. you need both.

High Plains Drifter's picture

they say that this bull may last 25 years. i say it will last forever. so my advice. keep buying what you can when you can. you will need it soon........

dark pools of soros's picture

nothing wrong with selling some on a recent spike..  since it jumped from 35 to 40 i sold a few this week..  keep your piles separate.  the big pile and the small pile you can move so you can make more for the big pile and anything else you need

 

it's a long journey, have fun along the way

 

goldfish1's picture

Yeah, silver has been like that as tbtb work to supress the price. That alone lets you know something about the value of paper currency.

High Plains Drifter's picture

why in the world would they talk about little old siver for?  hmmm?

sunnydays's picture

Whenever a big bank becomes bullish on metals, I get worried too.  Setting up for a huge push down to make some money?  No doubt silver will go to $100, should be there already if it was not for the manipulation.

gmrpeabody's picture

Maybe CITI sees they are being thrown under the bus, and have decided to fight a different style fight. A crack appears in the financial brotherhood?

KlausK's picture

Silver $100 long term. No shit.

BeerWhisperer's picture

That means it is a good time to sell if sources like that are saying buy.

goldfish1's picture

What are you selling yours for?

fuu's picture

I agree with Goldfish, I'll take whatever he leaves you with.

wsmith's picture

Silver?

Gold?

Who gives a fuck?

We need ideas.

My idea?

Tune in, turn on, and drop out.

Fuck the corporate assholes.

But who fucking died and made me boss?

Anyway, so long.

And God Bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

doomandbloom's picture

agree...change of 'money' from paper to gold...will benefit a few..and we will still have our overlords...

no change.

wsmith's picture

That's what I say, brother.

Fuck all the overlords--gold and paper--right in their assholes.

Perhaps I'm a Marxist.

But I'm fucking tired of bending over.

Fuck 'em all.

Anway, so long and God bless.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

doomandbloom's picture

do not identify yourself with marxist, or socialist or capitalist....these are definitions used by people who dont want to think differently..

u are thinking differently...maybe we need a new name for ur beliefs...

scratch_and_sniff's picture

"u are thinking differently...maybe we need a new name for ur beliefs..."

 

No, the name exists.

High Plains Drifter's picture

yes any sort of gold standard will be more of the same because the same ones that own the FED also own most of the gold and the means of production. They figured that one out a long time ago. We can do what Lincoln did and do just fine......but any and all "debts" acrued during the fiat regime must be declared null and void. now doing this, there will be some anger in the world. but that is the way it is....this is why i don't trust ron paul with his jewish inspired austrian economic school and his gold standard nonsense.

doomandbloom's picture

I view Ron Paul as an insider, who was put in place long time ago...in case people realised the charade...

In which case he would be seen as a champion. It took us nearly 30 years to realise this paper charade.

I dont trust him...mainly because he is still alive ( if the establishment really saw him as a threat...he would be taken out long time ago)

We need people to realise we no longer need leaders to tell us what to do...

 

High Plains Drifter's picture

correct observation imho. anyone that gets off the reservation becomes obsolete. that is the way the game is played. anyone that continues to exist, means they are playing their parts. it is troubling to see so many well meaning people get duped and put their trust in a old man who has been inside or the beltway for almost 20 years now, without effect. do we hear fire breathing oratory from this man? no, we don't. for example, let us look at what happened to jim traficant. he kept trying to be mr independent who didn't care about what "they" wanted and vola, suddenly he is brought up on bogus charges, convicted by a kangaroo court and sentenced to 7 years in federal prison. out of sight, out of mind.  this is the way things work. people should know that by now. i hate to sound so cynical, but that is the way it is.....

DosZap's picture

SD-O,

saw that, funny I did not see any crackers flying jets on 9-11, did you?.

Between these fools and the SPLC, we have quite a trio.

Everyone is always looking for a scapegoat, and a scare tactic, for job security and funding.

High Plains Drifter's picture

strange acting white guys running around dropping off suspicious bags.......hmmm, maybe it is truel. maybe we will all be "terrorist" one day......

Silver Dreamer's picture

How is Ron Paul a threat?  He's one statesman on a stage of nearly 500 bankster puppet politicians.

Hearst's picture

I agree.  A lot of people want to associate Paul with the bad guys but that's just crazy talk.  Look at his track record of voting.  Look at what he stands for.  It's all against the status quo.  He is one of the only politicians that speak up and care for the people.  I know it's difficult to look at Washington and not group them all in as a den of thieves but Ron Paul's actions speak for themself.  

High Plains Drifter's picture

that is the point. ron paul is not a threat.  then one may ask , why not?  why is he still alive?  listen man, you have  to understand the kind of people you are dealing with. the kind of people that will kill 3000 americans at the drop of a hat, on 911 and not think a thing about it, so they can affect american foreign policy and our mercenary actvities.......and make money at it all the while.....

DosZap's picture

Marc Faber was interviewed a week or so ago, and he was asked if he had to choose only ONE asset/commodity to put all his eggs in,which would it be 100%.

He said GOLD.He said watch the Jewish people, they are super intelligent with regards to making money, and he had many friends that were Jewish.

He holds 20% of his total net worth in Gold and Gold stocks.

His Jewish friends, some held 20-25%,others 40-60%, and others 80%.

But the majority held more than 40%+ in Gold.He said doing what they do will pay off,ultimately.

Regardless of what you think or believe about them, they know how to make money, lots of it.

As for the Austrian Economics model.

I'll take it over the Keynes model that's FUBAR any day.

High Plains Drifter's picture

watch the jewish people.........ha ha ha ha........

so true. so true....

 

guess what. my jewish friends are buying metals hand over fist..........kapiche?

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

We should annex the European Union as part of the greater US Republic.  Since we are paying or just printing for it anyway.

Ghordius's picture

Start with giving Puerto Rico full state status.

Ah, and annex Israel. Oh, I forgot Iraq & Afghanistan.

Wait, make it simpler: annex all countries which have a US military base.

Do you know the location of all US bases, doughboy? There are 700+ of them.

DosZap's picture

Yeah, make Puerto Rico a state, get that extra million votes for Oblameuh, and add another 500k to the welfare rolls......sounds like a great plan.

earnulf's picture

Haven't you left yet?    You keep saying you are leaving, but you keep coming back.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Silverrrrrrrrrrrrrr! One more swoon, then off to the races, never to return to these affordable levels.

But like many have pointed out, $100 silver, today, means a world in shambles. Or close to Shambolic anyways.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/27/wisdom-for-warriors-6/

High Plains Drifter's picture

normally i wouldn't trust a company that should not exist, but i believe they are mapping the future for anyone with a ear to hear. yes , it is true. with the "success" of silver bug's "investments" so goes the world...........i am sorry to say. it is bitter sweet.......

SheepDog-One's picture

Silver should already easily be $100, just imagine things when it gets to $500.

Silver Dreamer's picture

The problem of course is that when it gets to $500, that $500 will still only buy you a gallon of gas.

High Plains Drifter's picture

correct?  what does it mean to say that silver will be at 500. does it really mean that much to us as americans?  one has to ascertain such things when taking inflation into account.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

FOA (01/10/01)

Silver, you ask?

Same old song for a brand new generation, all ready to hear those wore out verses being sung once again. Perhaps, a poor man's gold, no?

Ha! Ha! The last thing a poor man (or woman) needs is silver. Actually, any metal could be a poor man's gold, even iron! One ounce of iron is more affordable than silver and has just as good a chance at outrunning gold,,, percentage wise of course.

The only real argument all the silver pushers have is based on it someday outperforming gold and holding that gain for good,,, again percentage wise. This is the same old worn out logic all the various paper gold substitute players also use. Throw it into the same waste basket with options, futures, leveraged gold contracts, delta hedging both long and short paper positions,,,,, even gold mines, silver mines and the like. All of it is pushed because of the same thought; "why own physical gold when these items will go up faster in the next move"!

Yea,,,, somebody forgot to mention that the next move in gold may be of a nature like "noone" has ever seen before. Oh, you didn't hear that this time the entire paper gold marketplace may crash and burn,,,, taking all those above leverage vehicles down with them? Exposing silver for the play it always truly was,,,,, just another leveraged metal being pushed to poor people standing next to gamblers?? Yea, poor people shouldn't use gold,,,, that's only reserved for rich people hedging their big wealth. Ha! If ever there was a way to increase the gap between have and have nots,,,,, just sell the nots silver while the haves keep gold.

goldfish1's picture

The last thing a poor man (or woman) needs is silver.

Silver is money. Paper money fails. Do your history homework.

EvlTheCat's picture

yawn.... Specious argument at best.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

But your argument was incisive. lulz

EvlTheCat's picture

Tough Guy with thin skin, oxymoron.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Incisive arguments take time and space, not one line rebuttals.

Gold WILL Fold!

Fifiefofafum!~

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/an-opportunity-and-a-golden-warning/

101 years and counting's picture

so, the premise is that the hunt brother cornering the silver market was a normal function and due to repeat itself? i like silver, and will buy some more at $30.  but, come on ZH'ers.  what a dumb argument presented here.