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EUR Shorts Plunge, As CHF Goes Net Long For Only Fourth Time In 2010, JPY At Most Bullish
The CFTC reports that in the week ended July 13, speculative EUR net positions dropped once again, this time to -27k, the lowest since mid-January, and the fastest plunge every recorded since the all time biggest net short position recorded in May. In other non-EUR pairs, net spec positions in the Yen spiked to a 2010 high at 47k, while the CHF posted its first net bullish spec exposure since January at 15k. Lastly, the decline in GBP bearishness continues dropping to the lowest since January at 35k positions. Obviously, the speculators are aggressively betting against the dollar and in favor of other crosses. Then again, with even Goldman joining the EURUSD bull crowd, we are now fairly certain the bullish trade is heavy.
EUR CFTC COT:
All other pairs:
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CHF, bitchez
Freedom bithez.
OT
Story developing...could be nothing...
"This is alarming. Torrent news site TorrentFreak is now reporting that Wordpress host Blogetery has been shut down by United States authorities… along with all 73,000 Blogetery-hosted blogs.
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http://www.geek.com/articles/news/73000-wordpress-blogs-shut-down-by-u-s...
Whoa WTF?
That's what I said.
They are saying copyright infringement.
Seems like "killing an ant with a nuclear weapon" to me. There had better be something a little more to this than pirated crap for knocking out 73,000 blogs in one snap.
Censorship. Great....
HUF, bitchez
This story reminded me of Kyle Bass doing his mortgage in yen.
http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass-is-so-bearish-on-japan-he-finan...
whats the deal with the yen?
Some people have yens, the rest have FRNs.
Ok, leaving now.
All in the plan, my friend. The Fed can't rely on the GBP or the EUR to hold the DXY between 76 and 88. The yen has done the heavy lifting for quite a stretch here and it has cost the Japanese a lot of political capital in the country. That trade is coming to a rapid end facing all-time USDJPY lows. Now, watch for the yen to tank against the dollar in what will be a bona fide once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy dollars on yen.
Then, buy Japanese stocks dirt cheap: Honda Motor, for example.
look at the monthly of XJY; huge ascending triangle; if 116ish gets taken out it is off to the races. i dont understand the so-called fundies.
very bearish week for USD - looks to revisit 75ish; weekly MACD cross-down
this is interesting. everybody thinks the yen will tank. however if you look at the 5 year chart of the yen, it looks beautiful up up up......almost as nice as the gold chart. could it be the yen will defy your expectations?
The USDCHF pair looks to be retracing a move in the monthly charts back to 1.006, which is a 450-pip downside move from here. The sentiment of traders, in this case, seems valid in that they are long the Swiss Franc.
But... the CHieF was sentiment-long in February of 2010 and quickly proceded to give up an 800-pip move to the greenback. That was the front part of this protracted, six-month, round-trip move that is now closing.
It seems like a repeat of the original story, only in reverse. Once this formation has completed, a new direction will form. It is also important to note while you're thinking of trading the franc, that the gains lately in the Swissie have had more to do with a speculative trade than anything. (Even the SNB chairman said he was going to ruin the speculators...)
Once the "risk" trades begin to unfold- and, sorry gold lubbers, PMs as well- the revaluation of the franc to more "normal" levels is definitely in the cards. There will be reversion to the mean and then some, leaving a Billy Idol Whiplash Smile in its wake.
:%
THe YENUSD is a crowded trade; the CADJPY, AUDJPY are ugly. Deflation is a bitch and it will squeeze so hard that even gold bugs will be forced to complain.
I watched the AUDJPY trade all week. Carry unwind.
"we are now fairly certain the bullish trade is heavy."
What bullish trade?? the speculators are net short the euro as per the info you just posted yourself.
What use is a "fiat" currency? Well I can think of two primary uses:
1. To repay debts in that currency
2. To pay taxes in that currency.
The Yen has been a funding currency for a long time. Perhaps in recent weeks the Euro has become a funding currency as has the Dollar.
So - these 3 major currencies have two things going for them:
1. Lots of people have borrowed in the currency
2. largest economic blocs - so taxes are correspondingly large.
On the other hand the smaller speculative, risk currencies like the Aussie Dollar ? Definitely at risk as money flows home into Dollars, Euros and Yen.
Updated DOW chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com