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EUR Shorts Return, As Commercial Gold Net Short Positions Hit All Time Record
A week after the EUR posted the biggest short covering rally in history, expunging every single weak hand after a move wiped out 44% of all net shorts, the bearish speculative bets on the EUR are once again rising, according to just released CFTC Commitment of Traders data. After dropping from net -111,945 to just -62,360 contracts in the past week, net non-commercial EUR shorts are once again rising, and have increased by 8,614 in the week ended June 22, to -70,974. The easy short covering is over: at this point shakeouts, as claimed last week, will require something much more effective than a Goldman downgrade of the EURUSD.
In other COT news, gold fans will be happy to know that the number of commercial gross and net short positions in the precious metal has hit a new all time record of 475,678 gross and 288.916 net shorts. It is getting increasingly more expensive to the commercial players to preserve the price of gold at current levels, even with unlimited paper shorting capacity. As ETF's such as GLD accumulate increasingly more (hopefully real) gold inventory (yesterday's record number of 1,316 tonnes in GLD has not be updated for today yet), it will, in turn, become increasingly more difficult to push down gold price even as all the big players try to gold paper gold down.
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It apears that the retail investors will eventually come in to support this position. Read here...
http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/2010/06/confidence-collapsing-gold-rocket.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ExpectedReturns+%28Expected+Returns%29
It is important to note that CoT #s are only updated through the close of Tuesday each week. Therefore, the large increase in the short position can logically be assumed to have occurred on Monday, the 21st, as the gold market was jammed down almost $40. Monday, the 21st. The Monday before option expiration. Hmmm.
Gee, Turd, are you claiming that The Evil Empire took it upon themselves to unfairly manipulate the gold market lower through the addition of record amounts of new naked short positions on the Monday of option expiration week?
Yes, as a matter fact, I am. Does anyone who believes there is no gold market intervention by JPM, GS et al care to disagree when faced with these obvious conclusions?
It's the mother of all shorting ponzi's...
if you don't hold it, you don't own it.
Dear Turd;
Another element of the Evil Empire's (the greatest trick the devil ever...) insidious design is it's ability to sell GLD shares -as custodian and an authorized participant- while shorting gold itself.
Can you imagine being able to convince other people to buy your gold for you? 'GLD buys 3 more tons...'
Its ingenious, it all comes together with the diabolical symetry of a pentagram or swastika. These guys are smart!
Zero Hedge Thanks for today's postings! Keep the good work.
BP Spills Coffee ---> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM
Thanks Pamela, That was really funny!!!
also if you're not worried yet, check out the last few minutes of the trading day in the very liquid widely held large caps - intc, csco, ko, msft, wmt, pg in particular look really scary
liquidity squeeze anyone ?!
Thanks for pointing those out. Tanked at the last minute on a volume spike. What's your interpretation? Define "liquity squeeze" for me. Thanks.
options expiration? Max PAIN? - Ned
...however the banking sector had a great day thanks to Obama's "victorious" financial "reform".
I'm still waiting for someone in the mainstream media to point out the irony of today's rally in financials ...which happened on the same day that they were supposedly reined in.
Well, their victory was that they aren't reined in. That's why they rallied.
Of course, the MSM won't state this.
There were also some stocks, like Ford, that spiked up at the last minute. My guess is the Russell rebalancing is to blame for at least some of the strangeness. On the other hand, it does again illustrate how thin the markets, sans hft, really are.
commercials/dead head fed goons can't keep ahead of golds paper crimex rise! Naked shorts with no metal to deliver must be standing near stark in the buff as the tide goes out here; the goon20 in toronto burnokio can have his desperate 14 central reserve paper ponzi bankster gangsters hit the paper gold market hard! Synchronize your cracker jack price manipulation/PM price suppression rings now or we're dead! Treason season coming soon!!
Now we get to listen to how the smart money is betting against gold.
Well, when the truth came out on Comex only holding 1oz to 100oz ratio, one can only imagine the ETF's are in NO Way taking physical.
WHY would they?, they are under NO contractual obligations to proivide physical metals.
The only one that is, is PHYS, that I know of, and then it's in 400oz increments.(bar)
Love those short positions in gold. Promises, promises. Keep promising AU to people, it just makes those of us with actual physical possession of AU look all the wiser.
The COMEX paper 'shield' is becoming increasingly thin. Why, you can almost read tomorrows headline through it! "COMEX Forced to Settle Demands for Delivery in Paper Fiat!" Uproar ensues for heads to roll!
goona be fun!!
Out,
You got it...............the only way this (IMHO) could happen, is if the BIG banks, dumped tons, and I mean a LOT on ther mkt.
Which would be suicide for them,because it would lower the price to where everyone and their dogs, would be snatching it up.
Globally.
Common sense told me that 28 months ago when I began accumulating gold/silver and every other store of monetary value as history repeats deep, deep, deep, depression II !! GATA post no reason founding Fathers were so adamant about 2nd amendment gun rights!! No such word paranoid when 100% possession is the law among the lawless goons!!
Treasury claims power to seize gold, silver -- and everything elsehttp://www.gata.org/node/8766It looks like the 'power' of confiscation applies to times of war, but this country hasn't declared war since WW2, so there should be no problem... The peacetime power is limited to "property in which there exists a foreign interest". It shouldn't apply to precious metals held by Americans in America. There, I have successfully interpreted the law and am satisfied with my decision.
Unless you have lived in a cave over the past 25 years you have a foreign interest.
'or declared emergency' well there sure as hell is gonna be one of those when the USD pops.
DosZap - Yes and guess who is the custodian of GLDs bullion? Ding! Ding! You got it! JP Morgan. Now, guess who has a massive short position in gold? Yup. Right again! JP Morgan. Ready? Here's the kicker - If JP Morgan were forced to cover that massive short position, then who gets the gold? Go to the head of the class! JP Morgan would look after their in house obligations first, as a matter of self preservation. What about GLD? Why, they get to keep all their pretty pieces of paper, as JPM & Co. walk away with their pockets heavy!
That will never happen.
Gold contracts can be settled for GLD or cash-settled.
And before it gets to that point, they will increase margin requirements for futures contracts.
Remember, when they feel threatened, they change the rules - just like they did to the Hunt Brothers.
Never, ever, say never!
Thisson,
GLD can be filled with metals?.
Pls show me the part in their prospectus/link that says so.
Either way,while I have respected, obeyed, and have never been in trouble,confrontation with any Gvt authority, or LE agency, I can assure you, they would not get my PM's...........
This set of clowns have laws in place that are directly in contradiction to the Laws in the Constitution/Amendments,m and BOR's.............and ANY law, that is in effect, and goes against the Supreme Law of the land, is NO LAW, and therefore is NOT to be OBEYED.
I was thinking today that if they ever do finally crush gold, I'm going to melt mine down into some 7.62 squid killers. Should be good for a few dozen of the parasitic s.o.b.'s.
Silver bullets ok on vampire squidders; FT? LOLOL PTB thinks dead head decades of goon schooling keeps us constitutionally illiterate? I do know how to spell Treason Season!
I think silver will work just fine, too. I figure 5 or 6 per coin, if everybody chipped in we could clean house. Sort of like a turkey shoot.
Gold putting in shallow dips... contraction is on the verge of an imminent breakout thru 1300 - 1330 range !!
Gotta agree with ya. Looks like it will break out very early next month if it doesn't break out wednesday.
Interesting - at some point in time the layer of paper of gold will probably crash, but it will probably be at the very worst time. Best to take physical possession.
Quitting time draws nearer. Buy physical only. Au, Ag, Pt and Pb (in bullet form) are all just fine.
Diversify now!
Gold fans please go to:
fofoa.blogspot.com
and participate in his poll. Make the right choice. I already did.
Disclosure: I am not fofoa nor do I know who he is. I am a fan of his site.
.....
Tyler!
You should consider another option re donations to ZH. Like a P. O. Box in Dubai or a cut-out or something. Many of us do not trust sending money out from our computers.
and the service "delays" or "outages"? I was in Chicago this week with lovely Marla telling me to take a chill as she worked on the problem. I am smart enough (and stupid enough) to know when to jiggle the shooter's elbow and when to put up the shield.
But I'm also wondering whether there is a "ZH Traffic Indicator" which would be like a real VIX/VXO/VXN but with sensitivity.
Can't backtest that, though. 'course any backtest these days...
- Ned
New Meat,
Same here................I see Marla a lot,which is ok, she's easy on the eyes........
I wish Tyler would just let us know the # of hits on this site for the last month..............the servers have to be burning to the ground.
Those commercials must have corresponding longs vs. the metal SOMEWHERE...seems they can play this game endlessly until one day some significant portion of thei backers demand real metal...
You're missing the important point.
The bullion banks do NOT have corresponding longs. They can, however, play the game indefinitely, as you state. However, when they are finally overwhelmed by physical demand, the entire house of cards will come crashing down. Sadly, the effect will be that of 100 Lehmans in its implication for the financial system, the Fed, interest rates and our "markets".
Turd,
I agree, and that time is so close, it's spooky..........they can handle the US, but NOT the entire world going physical.And it basically is...........
One day this week(I think it was the Comex), had a YEARS supply of Silver removed from their stores........physical.(the entire planets yearly production), 21,600 Tons.
For what it's worth...
http://news.coinupdate.com/possible-run-on-comex-silver-inventories-may-...
and this, too...
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/06/21/the-story-thats-gata-be...
It's not only PMs (and by derivative oil) were there is massive price suppression it's also in food commodities. I appreciate this guy is talking his book but the USDA is complicit in fraud here.
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
All this price suppression is causing a massive overvaluation in the value of the dollar. When the house of cards does come crashing down it will cause hyperinflation in a matter days -
Similar to the Argentina crisis where the international banks paid off the politicians to keep the Arge Peso pegged to the USD (causing massive overvaluation of the AP) when they shud have let it devalue overtime naturally...eventually the 'house of cards comes crashing down.' Because market attacked the currency valuation forcing a devaluation which caused hyperinflation within 4 weeks (then the IMF sale in and hold the tax payers ransom effectively looting the country).
This is where America will be soon.
Yeah they're "hedging" their short positions in cash, ETFs, OTC derivatives and long the "repo" from the IMF, BIS, FED, ECB, etc....
It looks like JP Morgan, et. al, are expecting to make an enormous paper dollar profit one day when the economy 'recovers', demand for precious metals drops and their shorts pay off.
The bet seems to be that, when interest rates rise a la Volcker 1981, the paper currencies will stabilize or rise and gold fall, to enter into another 20-year bear market. Will this wash-and-rinse actually work?
Let's just hope that what we face is ten years of 1929-39, not one year of 1980-81.
Please understand, they have no expectations of profits or losses, though profits and losses certainly happen within their book. The Bullion Banks (JPM and GS) are only doing they're price capping work at the behest of the Fed. The Fed MUST keep gold down because if its doesn't, a fair-priced gold will signal MUCH higher interest rates. And exceptionally low rates are the only thing left propping up the entire government ponzi house of cards.
So, the Fed demands that The Evil Empire manipulate the gold market as much as possible. The Evil Empire obeys because even if, on balance, they lose money doing so, the Fed will still keep them on the discount window gravy train. What's a hundred mil in losses when the Fed is greasing you 2-3 bil in free money every stinking quarter?
Kred,
I would forfeit all my holdings in PM's if that's ALL there was to this.............happily.
There is only one way for this to end, BADLY...........
They are shorting at the request of the US Treasury to keep Gold and Silver down and confidence in fiat currency up. Rising Gold and Silver removes confidence in fiat currency and threatens the powers that be (TPTB). They take profits, yes, but that's secondary to doing favors for the gubermint. They are a "kept man" in that sense.
It is my contention the Silver market will blow up first. They (SLV - Stock Symbol) sold all the Central Bank inventory into the market, delivered it and are out of the leasing business as of a few years back. So the physical Silver market is tight. In the past 6 months it's apparent that 1000 ounce bars are scarce to gone. If you find one on-line you have wait weeks before it can be delivered. When you see the same happening in the 100 oz bars, you know the ballon is going up. It won't be long.
The Gold market is not as tight. Active Leasing is still happening in the Gold Market (GLD). However, as this is the financial reserve of the affected nation(s), it's unclear when Central Banks will pull the plug on leasing. I suspect if the Silver market blows it's top, leasing will end in the Gold market very quickly.
I remain to be convinced that they are shorting solely at the behest of the treasury...the only thing they are deathly afraid of is a run on the US dollar and the consequent flight to (physical) gold...
Then nothing will ever convince you. I'm moving on, obviously I wasted my time here.
My bet is that the shorts will lose the coming year. Shorts meaning hedgies and other funds.
When things get out of hand the leveraged paper longs will get squeezed out in a year or 2 with higher margin requirements. From 3500USD back to Alf Fields 2500USD. JPM and GS will be doing very fine then. This game aint over till its over.
Interesting tidbit here:
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=106850&sn=De...
Outsourcing gold ore refining from North America to China. i'm trying to wrap my mind around that 'idea'. Sounds more like a political scheme for placebo's for china.
China adds value to the gold bars by mixing the gold with finely ground tungsten. Like having your cake and eating it too.
Kind of like a body builder bulking up.
First off, let me say that I am long both Gold and Silver in the futures market.
I say this as because I believe there is NOT a 'conspiracy' to keep the price of Gold and Silver down. The banks that are short a lot of silver and gold by the futures are short because of the services they provide. Instead of a mining firm tying up its own capital by selling their gold and silver on the futures market, they go to an IBank and sell to them. The advantage of this is that they do not tie up any capital and can use that capital for their operations. The IBanks then use their capital and make arb profits from this (no risk).
Why do we not see huge short interests in commodities such as Natural Gas or Oil? In those markets, there are both plenty of buyers of the commodity (end users) and sellers. (side note This is where the IBanks make even greater profits, as they can line up both buyers and sellers and bypass the futures and otc market) In the case of Gold and Silver there are not many end users. Hence, this is why there has been and always will be a commercial net short position.
I think Gold and Silver goes higher for many reasons, which is why I am long.
That's garbage, 5th column. There's already been public admissions during the March CTFC hearing that they manipulate my goodness. Alan Greenspan has said it under oath in 1998. Gata.org has spend decades researching and debunking any idea other than the manipulation is deep, vast, and on-going. It's only recently come to light WHO was doing it - JP Morgan among others. It is plain as day if you watch the market, 12:00 on Options expire week every month, boom the price drops $25 bucks in Gold and .40-80 cent in silver in FIVE MINUTES. Plain and simple manipulation by sending thousands of phony naked short sales all at once to overwhelm the bid.
Your post is flagged as the Junk that it is.
jrh80 said, "The banks that are short a lot of silver and gold by the futures are short because of the services they provide. Instead of a mining firm tying up its own capital by selling their gold and silver on the futures market, they go to an IBank and sell to them."
Yes, they're providing the Fed and Treasury the service of keeping the price of gold and silver surpressed. Regarding their "hedging" is a lie; "The total short position represents almost 100% of the total visible and recorded silver bullion in the world, and 50% of the total one billion ounces thought to exist. These are truly preposterous amounts."
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message943942/pg1
Note that the above quote from the link is from Nov. 2009.
For what its worth, you are both right.
The Evil Empire does, in fact, provide a service to the moronic producers who still play the game of selling their gold forward. Fortunately, some larger producers are escaping this death spiral business plan.
The Evil Empire also does, in fact, openly manipulate the gold market, at the behest of the Fed, exactly in the way described above. At moments of light volume on the bid side, the Empire steps in and simply overwhelms it and drives hours of hard-fought gains back down in 5 minutes.
I find it interesting that so many of us here on ZH are fully aware of the now daily manipulations of the equity markets, yet so few believe in the daily manipulations of the much smaller gold market. If the Fed, through the Evil Empire, can lift the S&P almost daily by purchasing ES contracts during light volume, why is it so hard to believe that the Fed, through the exact same proxies, is doing the same thing on the short side in gold?
JLee2027, Went to Gata.org and found this. "It's admitted to the CFTC: London Gold market is a ponzi scheme"
http://www.gata.org/node/8478
On this page, I click on the first link to a Youtube video of Bill Murphy testifying. In the first 30 seconds of the video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wIMpe9SjfQ), he says one of my main points, Investment Banks borrowed Gold from Central Banks at low interest rates and sold it. How is that a naked short as you claim?
At the 3:50 mark, Bill Murphy testifies that the banks are short 41,000 contracts. Each contract is 5,000 oz of silver. Doing the math, that is approx 200 million oz not 500 million oz that is claimed.
Again, I am long both Gold and Silver in the futures market.
Ok, you took a one minute look at one link with one short video clip and disproved decades of careful work.
Great job troll. Do you think I was born yesterday?
The EURO buying support continues so far...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Good news for us gold holders, from one very experienced gold trader, Dan Norcini:
http://jsmineset.com/
"In one of the more remarkable displays of gritty determination and tenacity that the gold market has seen since it first began its decade long bull market, the longs have completely negated the bearish downside reversal day pattern that emerged on the charts after Monday’s significant sell off from a new record high price. This simply does not happen very often, in any market for that matter, and has never occurred in gold since 2001. If you are a short, you have to be reeling in stunned disbelief. There are serious buyers at work in gold.
"This performance is not merely impressive (that is too mild of a word), it is stupendously rare! Again, at the risk of beating a dead horse, the technical action in gold is telling us that the character of the market has completely changed from the pattern that we have grown accustomed to seeing the past 9 years and has now taken on a life of its own. This is acting like a market that wants to go higher, considerably higher."
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I my a little PHYS bullion in my back pocket.
Got Gold?
(Reuters Life!) - A Spanish precious metals trading company bought the world's largest gold coin for 3.27 million euros ($4.02 million), its exact material worth, from the estate of an insolvent investment firm at a rare auction in Vienna on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65O2S320100625