EUR Top: Goldman Revises EURUSD Target From 1.38 To 1.55
Goldman's FX team, which is by far the best contrary indicator in FX trends has just issued its revised currency outlook, which now sees the 12 month EURUSD target up from 1.38 to 1.55. Which means the pair is about to plunge. From Stolper: We are revising the majority of our FX forecasts to reflect broad Dollar depreciation. We have been emphasising for some time that structural US imbalances are the main reason for USD weakness and this remains our key theme. In the near term, a number of factors could still provide a boost for the Dollar, but these no longer form the base case for our 3-month forecasts. Instead, we expect the USD TWI to decline gradually from current levels, by about 4.7%, over the next 12 months and to get quite close to historical lows. Importantly, with USD weakness shared globally, the trade-weighted impact for other currencies would likely be relatively muted. Most other countries would experience relatively little appreciation. For example, the EUR TWI would only appreciate by about 3.9% from current levels, although we project EUR/$ at 1.55 in 12 months. Asia will play an important role and we now expect trade-weighted appreciation in key countries, such as China and Korea." The simple take home: buy the dollar.