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EURCHF Plunges To All Time Lows, As Gold Keeps Hitting Fresh Highs, And Computers Bid Up Stocks
Risk bid up as investors buy stocks and hedge by bidding up the two biggest safe havens: gold and the Swissie. In other words, total insanity. At this point the check is most certainly to the CHF, which is now seeing an all time record low in the EURCHF. Absent intervention, the next stop is much lower.
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Nobody expects the Swiss-ish intervention?
Euro +0.14% 06/18-10:53 0.8071 1.2391 1016.72 +10.41 +1.03%Rogers had been calling this a few weeks back...soon this trade will be crowded and he will liquidate. He said that this is a short term rally. First it was the USD tanking and then rallying and now its the EUR. Only thing thats been going up during all this time is Gold, which makes sense...that and stocks, which makes no sense whatsoever.
Right, stop that. This sketch is getting silly.
"Our chief weapon is surprise ... surprise and fear ... surprise and fear. Our two weapons are fear and surprise ... and ruthless [Swiss] efficiency ...."
That bit never gets old.
haha, very good, i liked it at least.
Could one even begin to imagine the phychological effects that a Washington Post style robo-trading melt-up could have if shifted to Gold ETF's and it's numerous derivatives?
Ouch!
A flash dash in GLD would be epic.
Why don't we put in some limit sell orders up 90% on a few of these and see what happens? I'll sell the GLD at 215 for a trade...LOL.
The intervention is late because Tricky Trichet is busy watching a woman having a shower across the building......Perverted Peeping Tom!
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01646/trichet_1646...
Tim and Ben just pulled their cocks out of his eye sockets. That is why they are called, "fuckheads."
And the last thing Tricky said to them was "I'll keep an eye out for you!"
With no data, indicators... whatsoever, what would expect on a quadruple expiration day. Just wait for the blood bath at the end of day....
GOLD, BITCHES!
So I ask again, what exactly is the bullish argument now? Really. If we were to break out of our own perspective for a moment, are there compelling (NON-TECHNICAL) arguments as to why the market is rallying?
I'm asking because I so agree with the sentiments and posts on this site, but I don't want to get lazy about the opposing view. I could make conspiracy and HFT arguments about why things are rallying. But what is the fundamental reason, cause I don't see it. But I miss stuff... too often...
I heard a guy on Bloomberg yesterday presenting the bullish case. To paraphrase:
'If you can just ignore the noise - the oil spill in the gulf, the European sovereign debt crisis, the tension between Israel and Iran, the tension between North and South Korea, the weaker than expected job numbers, the State debt issues, the weak retail sales numbers - if you can just ignore that and focus on the fundamentals, then stocks at 12x EPS are looking like a good buy right now'.
Seriously, thats a reasonable approximation of what the 'analyst' /trader interviewed on Bloomberg said. Draw your own conclusions...
"If you can ignore the rising possibility of an extinction event, this could be a good time to buy"
What else could go wrong? Wait, wait -- I take it back. I did not just ask that...
Uncertainty and money printing are rampant, so it is only a matter of time before the sheep realize there is something wrong with their money, and stampede into gold (and silver).
Agreed - no fundamental reason for the market to be rallying (or even trading sideways) in my view in light of all the recent indicators pointing down not to mention the news: GOM & gulf-state economies tremendously fucked up; moratorium on offshore drilling (or at least deep-water); EU is broke with the big banks having significant exposure to sovereign credit risk in the broke-ass PIIGS ; Broke European states rolling debt by borrowing more at higher rates ; Central & Eastern Europe also broke ; China maybe tightening ; US running presses 24-7 ; Persistently high unemployment in developed countries ; huge impending tax increases ; massive unfunded liabilities at state and national levels ; and a Democratic administration and congress determined to sell our future to the largest voting block
I am, by the way, not a pessimist, by nature - I look for the good in things - but one cannot ignore reality and the headwinds that we (and the rest of the world) are facing
at least the Lakers won - ha! told you, I am an optimist...
I look at it this way. For anybody who's ever been broke and unemployed with no savings and with sizeable debt service (as a metaphor for the nations in trouble out there), you can't save your way into prosperity and you can't borrow more to pay off your existing debts - what you need is more income or less debt. Get a job (in other words, grow your income-producing power enough to cover your basic needs and service/retire your debt), or write off your debt (bankruptcy).
What is micro is macro. This is why I think we got problems. Just my two cents and I welcome any input or competing versions...
"What is micro is macro."
^That should be the motto of every economist who wishes to be taken seriously.
Seriously. I just love it when people try to "explain" why fundamentals of household budgeting and finance can't possibly be applied at a global level.
just ignore all these things Clayton, everything is fine.
This is the "noise" that investors need to ignore at the moment.
Everything is fine, just ignore it, it will go away, everything is fine
It is noy why, but how. Volume has come in on down days, telling us that rallies are to be sold. Sell the curent rally and profits should be made.
Here's one bullish argument making the rounds:
http://investingcaffeine.com/2010/06/18/marathon-investing-genesis-of-ch...
I can imagine how awkward it will be to explain the US stock market to future generations.
Son: Dad whats the stock market?
Dad: Its where computers trade stocks back and forth in order to run up the price of several stocks.
Son: Why would computers do that?
Dad: To make lots of money for the people that own those computers.
Son: Do we own those computers?
Dad: No we don't own those computers.
Son: So how do you make money in the stock market dad?
Dad: I don't make my money in the stock market son.
+1 LOL
I don't even want to think about how difficult explaining the bond market will be.
Try teaching someone that bonds can have negative earnings and you will know what I am talking about.
hahaha
lol
So much for option ex smashing gold.
I've told you should buy gold.
gold is going to 3000-5000 over the next 10 years.
fiat currency.
anyway chf, yen strength. I don't understand this rally in stocks.
can't win them all
Swiss-ish?
Are you related to George Bush?
The selloff is coming... E-mini 1,111
well you could see 1150
or double top
or 1275
so eventualy sell off will come
but when ?
So far PCLN anti-Goldman trade is holding down nice. Initial gap up from couple nights ago is being eroded and Goldman may even sell their short term position to get something out of their manipulation upgrade (if they haven't already).
When the market gets caught with its pants down, I expect PCLN to be first in race to the gutter.
My sentimental favorite indicator is the VIX. If you check it, it has fallen from 37 to 23 this month. I think of it as panic ammunition. High number equals panic. Panic comes from anticipated selloff. There seems to be a lack of concern in the price of options based on this atari rally from early June.
As for an easy ES sell target, 1060 would be red velvet, as that is area where the EUR/JPY-ESU 60 day decoupling would re-unite.