You're now on the archive server. Commenting has been disabled.
Time to recalibrate all those long stock-weak dollar correlation engines.
Contact Information:
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Suggested Reading:
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
KING DOLLAR.
*ALL* paper is collapsing.
King wine; King oil.
BUY ON THE DIP!
wait.. am I in the right place?
yes, and it would be 'buy physical on the dip!' ;)
I have $24 Feb calls on UUP. Who's with me?! Hoenig, you da man!
LOL!
I have the Mar 24's - waiting for another runup like last week...
This is good, right?
Can someone please tell me wtf happened at 2:45?
No way to be sure, but I can't help wondering if all the leveraged ETFs (ProShares, iShares, Direxion, etc) simultaneously switched all of their derivates to bullish.
Because really, we have no way of knowing that the bearish derivatives covering the bearish ETFs are actually going bearish, now, do we? Nor that ProShares, iShares, and Direxion are really making bullish derivatives bets on their "bullish" ETFs.
This is just a wild-eyed guess not backed up by any actual evidence, but I can't help thinking that if I were an unethical person, and I were in control of the back-end derivatives for all these ETFs, I could suddenly plug everything into one direction anytime I wanted to, thus effectively forcing the market to go in that direction.
Then my same-direction derivatives would remain covered as usual, while I would make money from having secretly switched over the derivates from the opposing ETF.
Imagine, for instance, you switch all the bearish ETFs to bullish. You not only eliminate the bearish volume, you switch it to bullish, driving the market upwards, pocketing the difference from the gain on your bullish ETFs and not needing to use the derivatives proceeds to cover the bearish ETFs that just got short-sqeezed.
Interesting theory. Thanks.
That would be evidence that ETFs are just a scam, which is what I have suspected all along.
"what happened"
A bounce to back test the trend break has started. The "team" is going to "inject" some support for Bernanke and The State of the Union.
Nice EOD ramp. Is the president giving a speech tonight?
Got out of FAZ just before the FED announcement. (Not skill, just luck--it hit my price target). Once you get used to this market being totally irrational and just trade with the momentum (Thanks, RT) you make money. Don't think, just feel.
I feel the power! - Bruce Almighty! beat and rhythm included
we can still think just a little bit.:) I bought FAZ at 19.10, just to see if it pops tomorrow in the pre-market due to Obama-bashing of the banks tonight...we'll see if I am correct, or if I get handed my tasty shorts.
Good luck all...pikledbill
they jamming market up - right on schedule. no dollar correlation anymore. gotta make State of Union look good, of that Bernanke is a positive, or that piigs can fly.
no more martyrdom for me.
Pyrite, bitches.
+1 for geology based humor.
andy u do know that rating oneself is akin to attempting a hans solo reach around.
There must have been an agreement between central banks to allow currencies to tank and strengthen in turn, thus minimising any real long-term impact on trade balances.
Sarkozy coming out today and paying lip service to Bretton-Woods III was just that- lip service. I can't imagine that the French president was left out of the loop on this one.
The dollar went through its tumult and now it is the Euro's turn. I don't believe that they can really afford to do it with the Cable, but we'll see. Dollar weakness has lasted about six months, so expect dollar strenght vis-a-vis the Euro to last six months, as well. The EUR/USD pair will bottom at about 1.250.
The movement in currencies smacks of back-room agreements and cigar-smoked deals, so just play along with it and you'll make money.
close near hod.......change you can believe in, version 2.0 premiers tonight.
andy what is a strars? :)=
more likely don't zh after 1/2 a bottle of scotch.
Now that the stars are gone all I can do is junk you... so be it!
Gives andy's kindergarden teacher a raise.
"The star system worked on him. Let's keep using it."
The unwinding of the DoeLarr carry trade continues, but for how much longer? What happens when the monitzation of US debt is at par with debt 'production'? (for lack of a better word) Does the bottom drop out? We are at the apex of the most massive monitary expansion in the history of the world! Silver bitches! Presidents warned of this. Presidents said they hoped bankers would never be able to ensnare the American people by control of the money supply! It happened and we are at the end of the story. Soon they either declare QE DOS or raise rates (catch the skyrocketing inflation if you can), and either way 'Merica loses-"there are no jobs" and the land is worth a lot less than you thought, unless you want to farm it.
How much longer will the doelarr bleed, but not die? Or is paper money done now, and we are in denial? Maybe this is "Weekend at Bernie's", and the Oligarchs are propping up an already dead SOB.
There goes the War Charts projection shot to he'll. The market said Fuck you charts, Ben just gave us free money. It's like Jesus handing out the loaves and fishes.
Let's not drag Jesus into a Bernanke analogy. Not safe.
Like I said, charts, Technicals all mean shit. Traders don't even look at that shit. Apple was up 7.00 from the low because of the news. They didn't say, I better not buy Apple, there's going be an asset bubble. They buy what they please. I've had it with fucking war charts.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/construction-in-chinas-ghost-tow...
this is not the article about the ghost town that was reported on al jazeera
Scrap Davos.
Scrap the FOMC.
Scrap the EUR/USD.
None of it matters.
The only thing that matters is the iPad, the success of which will determine the fate of global financial markets and world civilization.
Now, if only somebody could rope this bucking bronco..
LOL....
volume 'splosion screams monthly inflection, at the least.
Q: which direction ?
A: what's crapple's weighting within the Q's.
VIXie Normous
*****
5-Stars! IPad and American Idle! LOL!
Robo, you slacking off on us? We need more trading ideas and eye candy.:)
Leo, with the eye candy i'll try to help out.
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-48767-7.html
With trading I would wait until the direction becomes more clear.
To get the direction of the market I use a refined version of Dow Theory with INDU and TRAN and as reality check RUT and BKX. The original pair made a new high and is in correction mode now; the other pair gave a strong warning with probable downturn.
Gold and silver in euro scratch the low boundaries of the uptrend but for now did not break the trend and Dow/Gold goes nowhere.
I wait and see until Mr. Market makes up his mind.
I give her one strar
Kinda reminds me of Frankenstein...
Saying super phenonomal and incredible more than 20 million times in your life causes liver disease?
Any anti-Euro trade is working well now. They are apparentyl taking turns trashing their currencies, are these central banks.
EUR/USD to 1.250.
EUR/JPY will break the support channel it has been in as early as Friday. After that, the floor's the limit!
:D
Can you do a chart with prevalence of Gekko posts on the vertical axis and the price of Gold on the horizontal axis? I'm not a Gold hater, in fact I have about 15% of my money in AU, but I find it amusing how 100% confident people get in markets which are never 100% clear.
*****
GG pretty quiet on bad gold days.
+1.1
call me when it hits .96
*GOLD*
sUPPORT STILL STANDS. $1040-$1080.
The markets will soon begin to go up again, lead by gold. They will go back down soon too, as the FED pans for gold. This constant revaluing of metals and commodities to equites will be done over and over to keep asset prices "normal". What it will do long term is to have them increase but not in comparison to commodities. Near term, gold will "test" it's support (shown above). DJ will see 9,500 as the low. Then hype! This constant revaluing of all assets against gold will likely mean gold par with DJ by 2013.
"Because really, we have no way of knowing that the bearish derivatives covering the bearish ETFs are actually going bearish, now, do we? Nor that ProShares, iShares, and Direxion are really making bullish derivatives bets on their "bullish" ETFs."
For a long time I suspected that those etfs and (under threats or pressure)were changed to something else. To prove anything one would have to go through a lot of computer modelling. But from noticing their value,at least the bullish ones should be a lot lower than where they are now,simply due to all the gyration in the bench indexes. One fact at least stand out;the FAZ and FAS reverse split happened on the Friday before the Jul next sp index propulsion to the thousand territory. One might ask'and what is the purpose"?. Well,the FAZ was reversed 10:1
,and I heard a rumor that one of the big guys was recommending shorting it(big IB). So of course (and probably for margin and psycological impact)shorting a $40 share is much more tempting endeavot than shorting a $4 share.So I honestly think that there is a lot of inner dealing that goes on between Direxion and the gang. Shorting or longing is I believe is much better through individual stocks,at least you know what you are buying or selling. And frankly in my opinion,this applies to all etfs whose underlyings are only known by the management and GOD and nobody else. At least with xom vz or any other company,we know what those guys business is,and while they certainly can manipulate earnings,their business model is pretty well known for years and you can simply discount their balance sheet and set a cheap price for entry,or a high price for an exit...
1.3940
Stocks bitches!
12% up, 6% down... has been the rough pattern.
About to happen again.
-BBH
FOMC left things unchanged.
We have a mountain of treasuries to hock on some Chinese people
The Economy is rolling over...as if it wasn't before
The FED is not going to raise interest rates for 10 years and it still won't save the economy
A DOW/SP500 counter trend rally started on Wed 27th: aka a dead cat bounce.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0