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Euro Decoupling, Inverse Style

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update 2: think tank report making rounds saying SNB cannot keep intervening in CHF.

Update: fresh round of euro weakness due to rumor that the ECB will recommend further unlimited Long-Term Refinancing Operations (liquidity providing) in a major dovish reversal. This is very EUR negative as is just more fuel for the currency debasement game.

Just as the EUR decoupled from risky assets two days ago, with the broader market dropping far more than the EURJPY pair suggested it should, so the opposite is occuring currently. The far too obvious trade, which in this market is apparently the right one, is the buy the EURJPY and sell stocks.

 

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Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:27 | 391631 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Again the paradox:

The $ rallies on the "strong" job report tomorrow. But the EUR correlation suggests that a stronger dollar will cause stocks to sell off.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:29 | 391635 quintago
quintago's picture

in other news, i was just watching the feed from Skandi ROV1 at the spill, and they lifted something and the exiting plume seemed to just get more intense.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:31 | 391640 VK
VK's picture

The BP jerk-off continues unabated. 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:46 | 391701 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The oil leak will not get fixed any time soon.  Why?  Things just are not fucked up enough.  We need to have a full blown crisis with people running out of buildings waiving their arms in the air and screaming.  After that happens, then the oil leak will get fixed. 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:33 | 391886 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I think it hasn't been fixed because it can't be fixed.  We always assume we can fix problems, and if they aren't fixed its becuase 'they' aren't trying hard enough.  But sooner or later we're going to hit problems that we just can't fix.  Maybe this is one of them - relief well in August is the best bet.  Appropriate thing would have been for BP to have drilled the relief well BEFORE they started pumping, which is in fact required in some jurisdictions, but of course they lobbied to have that requirement removed by US regulators.  This was completely avoidable, but now may not be fixable any time soon.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 13:21 | 392171 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The other issue working against us is that the president has already used the oil spill as a rallying cry for round 2 of cap and trade talks.  Strike while the iron is hot...  In the end, cap and trade will be far more damaging than the oil spill from the gulf...  but then again, he wouldn't have been elected if we weren't prone to cutting off our nose to spite our face.  In short, there is political incentive to prolong stopping the leak.

Further, the worse the leak gets, the higher the likelihood the US of A will get some good ol' oil infrastructure added to its books.  As a strategic measure, I would think having some government owned oil wells on huge deep sea deposits close to our shores would be a no brainer.  And, although a drop in the bucket, it might help reduce our requirements on foreign oil...  (which is what will have to happen before we can pull out of the middle east).  We've done far worse in our short history...

I'm not sure whether it can be fixed...  at best it's incredibly difficult and requires ingenuity and foresight probably lacking at BP...  but, either way, there are counter incentives to stopping the spill...

PS, this is complete spitballing and I realize it would seem strange for BP to usher in cap and trade, which would increase BP's costs...  but again, in this case, a single actor can fuck an entire industry...  and we operate with less than perfect information...

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:31 | 391643 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

I see an inverted "V" on the Dow, just now

poet and don't know it.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:29 | 391866 FortyTwoIsTheAnswer
FortyTwoIsTheAnswer's picture

But your feet show it...they're Longfellows.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:32 | 391650 Rider
Rider's picture

What is this "inverse style", comes in the kamasutra of finances?

Is like the "Double Kangaroo Sloppy Pocky"?

 

 

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:34 | 391657 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I've got 1.2189 $/Eur

So...who is going to step in and do the intervention this time? ECB? Fed?

We should know soon.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:38 | 391665 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

 Are they building in some sort of buffer? The market is still considerably higher than where the EUR was at this level yesterday. Do the lack of volume yesterday indicate that the market is due for a fast fall to catch up?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:42 | 391680 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

No, it's just greed playing out on the JPM and GS prop desks. They're playing with "house money" and are getting punchdrunk on their power to drive the market higher through blocks of SPY.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:39 | 391670 Rider
Rider's picture

Most likely the Erozone ECB. Sounds like nobody is using Ben's currency fluids swapping facility.

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-the-chart-you-need-to-watch-to-see-if-a-european-banking-crisis-really-breaks-out-2010-6

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:55 | 391740 Trichy
Trichy's picture

Ben just put in the first bids. He told the broker to nibble on the dips.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:37 | 391661 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

wow that was quick

dropped below 1.22 lets see if the 1.22 pump kicks on...

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:46 | 391686 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Come on Ben hit that easy button again!  No whammies, no whammies, no whammies... Ah shit.  Wha Wha Whaaaa

http://video.adultswim.com/frisky-dingo/no-whammies.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnTbO26u9bQ

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:44 | 391693 reading
reading's picture

we'll see what happens at 1.2175...see if it was just a ploy for some swiss torture.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:38 | 391666 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Have no fear for the Lolercopter will be dropping off Timmah and Big Ben any moment.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 10:54 | 391732 Trichy
Trichy's picture

Trichet's days are numbered and his fall will bring the D-mark back.

I estimate the bank write offs from the Spanish housing and building sectors alone to top 40BN EUR a year the next tree years, under the new rules from the government. Should they do an american style stress test they would need Timmay and his team to hide the 200 BN EUR hole as is. The banks are directly and indirectly sitting on 2,5 m built or unfinished houses. Wonder how Portugal looks and France is probably not much better?

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:02 | 391769 Mako
Mako's picture

Decoupling was one of the biggest lies told by the paid advisors.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:07 | 391782 DW
DW's picture

Anybody know hoe to get my hands on that think tank report? Thanks

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:29 | 391870 Trichy
Trichy's picture

Just heard that Ben can't get to the trading screen right now, his tie is stuck in the printing press.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:45 | 391922 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

He uses FXPro on his Blackberry.

Thu, 06/03/2010 - 11:51 | 391939 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Is today Flash Crash Thursday?  I would like to order a Flash Crash with a side of Oh Shit sauce. 

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