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Euro Drops Below $1.36

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The recent intraday low of 1.3586 was hit in the prior week. We will likely take that out shortly. Yet even this EURUSD level goes back only to May 2009 levels. There is much more room to go as the posturing in Europe continues, and no definitive bailout plan is announced. If Van Rompuy wanted to send a "clear political message" he sure succeeded... if that message was that cohesion and a united understanding are sorely lacking, or that Europe will now really lean on the euro. In the meantime, we can't wait to see just how excited the broader Greek population will be about the upcoming austerity measure.

 

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Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:03 | 226709 godfader
godfader's picture

Where is the "USD IS TOAST" crowd? Hiding? Dead? Blown up?

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:11 | 226734 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

It still could be, just it isn't going to happen today.  Personally, I'm not sure which way it's going to go, I just know the probably for both happening is almost 100 percent.  That's how wild things are going to be, or probably be.  I can see 300 gold and 5000 gold with even it then deflating back down again and then perhaps surpassing 5,000.  This is one long process, and just when you think one side has won out, it changes.  Where it eventually ends up, who knows, but it will be hell for the average person finding out. 

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:15 | 226740 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

+1000

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:15 | 226741 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya 330 million people's money are going to be a HUGE deal on a 7 billion population planet.

Live in the moment and the moment is saying slap euro to pieces. The dollar will have it's moment too. Dollar is months away from it's next stressors. Budgets that didn't work to start being torn into urgency as they distort even beyond thier orginal wishful thinking. Just like ordinary people who run out of money days before they run out of month. So too will our state and local governments.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:20 | 226755 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Have you ever heard of Last Man Standing?

I guess that you turned off the Super Bowl after the first quarter?

Until The Last Man Standing, put a damn sock in it.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:21 | 226759 Justin Credible
Justin Credible's picture

Who cares where they are?

Currency valuations are now simply based on "the leper with the most fingers"...

And I don't even think they're counting fingers correctly anymore.

 

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:16 | 226853 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

funny...but since were dealing with central bankers and politicians, shouldn't we use the leper and prostitute analogy or does the tip only apply to GS?

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:22 | 226760 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I wouldn't be gloating just yet. Schadenfreude at the Euro's predicament is a little like laughing at your neighbour's misfortune in having his house blown down, even while the tornado is heading straight for yours.

As with the contagion that swept Wall St. in 2008, the problems will be exposed first at the weakest point, but they will grow and expand throughout the system until they get to the top.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:29 | 226769 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

They lost their money buying physical gold at premiums above the peak price.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:44 | 226782 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Peyton = DXY

WHO DAT BITCHES!!!

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:50 | 226807 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Actually, even who dat was a "borrowed phrase" from the Bengals in the 1990s.

The Saints are the most boring and unoriginal team.  I'm just glad that they won so I can stop hearing about 'how much it would mean to this community ravaged by Hurricane Katrina.'

Also, isn't it lame that everybody likes the Saints now, when they used to like the Patriots before that, and the Cowboys before that, and the 49ers before that?
See where this is going?

Also, I'd rather have Peyton on my side in this current DXY uptrend.  I could always buy physical gold and watch it stall at 1080 before it falls again, but I don't like losing money.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:48 | 226920 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'm sure you meant 1092.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:55 | 226814 D.M. Ryan
D.M. Ryan's picture

Surprisingly, gold held up. Put the two together and you get the bailout announcement being bad for the Euro and good for gold.

When the U.S. Dollar Index backtracked, gold took off.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:19 | 226859 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Gold is currently a currency option. Your choices today are US$, Euro, Yen, Gold (with a few smaller choices, too). When 2 or 3 currencies are collapsing simultaneouslym, then gold will become the best option.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:38 | 226886 bad.bank (not verified)
Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:43 | 226904 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The So Larr Doe' Larr is toast!

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 17:34 | 227407 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Does the amount of other worthless fiat paper it "buys" today have any relevance to its declining REAL value?

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:04 | 226713 alexdg
alexdg's picture

Geometrically perfect. Approaching the tangent mode!

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:09 | 226727 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya it's just begging for a nice equation to map it out perfectly.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:07 | 226722 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

If you push a sled over that I think we could gather up enough speed to solve our energy problems

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:08 | 226724 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

KING DOLLAR (euroleeriness).

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:10 | 226731 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Almunia's latest message is "there is no bailout, and we will announce it next week".

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:11 | 226733 10044
10044's picture

Compare 2 pieces of worthless paper, now that's classy

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:20 | 226757 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Exactly, you can bet the Euro's like Germany are happy their currency is down, we are in a period of currency wars where everyone WANTS to debase their own currency, it is the modern day equivalent of Smoot Hawley, meanwhile commodities have doubled across the board since Bernanke started firing his debasement bazooka.

The collapse of the current fiat currency system is coming, it can't be avoided at this point.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:41 | 226901 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

interesting comparison of competitive tariff wall building with competitive currency devaluation.  even if not absolutely rigorous, a provocative metaphor comparing the international linkages  of the two deflationary depressions.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:12 | 226735 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Meanwhile, Gold is up too. Keep monetizing that debt, Europe!

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:25 | 226766 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It ain't just one defunct currency that sifts that soot.  Go team go! 

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:12 | 226736 godfader
godfader's picture

How come we don't see any SPX charts priced in EUR recently? Why did these genius bloggers only post them at DX 74? Why not now at 80?

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:31 | 226773 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Because the one sure way that you'll see a trend change is when 'everybody knows' what the next move will be.

Everybody knew, and now everybody is smarting from knowing.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:18 | 226753 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No SWIFT accord wirth US - according to the EUParliament / app 380 vs 200.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 17:31 | 227403 Brak82
Brak82's picture

Thank god for that. I thought the Eu was going totally nuts.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:41 | 226783 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What do you think a race to the bottom looks like? Like most races, there will be many lead changes, and almost everybody will lose.

...unexpectedly...

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:43 | 226792 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If the Dollar goes up it will be bearish for the stockmarket. A lower Euro will help the Eurozone which has been complaining for a while that it is too high.

It is all a mess and all currencies are toilet paper. The Dollar will fall soon enough as the debts are simply too big and growing.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 12:52 | 226808 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Euro today, the US$ tomorrow would be my guess.

Master B, like you new avatar.  But, I will be shopping for gold pretty soon.  Physical only.  But, I know it will make you feel better that I am keeping 3 months of long green here in the house and lots more in the bank.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:01 | 226827 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Classic joke re-tooled fill in the blanks:

Hey,__Greece__ which hand do you wipe with?

Answer:

I use paper.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:03 | 226830 SV
SV's picture

I ended up selling the rise yesterday figuring it would roll, but it took a bigger pair that clink than I have to do it with any magnitude given the stupid drama.  Nice 3R trade with low drawdown. I'm out until the market gets done with where it's going today...

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:05 | 226833 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

It feels a bit like when gold broke 1220 and all the chat was there was no stopping the inexorable rise.  I may get shot down here, but I have had a bottom for the Euro at 1.35 and it has got there very fast, maybe even too fast.  There is likely to be more clarity about the European plan over the weekend, monetization is definitely off the table and Greece will have to bite the bullet of austerity or face exit from the Euro (which would be positive for the currency and very bad for Greece.)  All this noise about Greece has certainly diverted people from the state of the US finances, and the strange dynamic is that the US objective is to maintain appetite for Treasuries (yes, the yield is crap but think of the currency benefit) but Europe is more concerned about exports, so were more worried with the Euro at 1.50 than at 1.35 so they have to some degree fanned the flames.

Anway, I may be wrong, but we have heard the story of the demise of the Euro many times before and I expect the Chinese to be buyers at the right price, which is something that has been largely ignored.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:17 | 226856 bad.bank (not verified)
Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:51 | 226929 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

i don't even know what that site is and i junked it.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:23 | 226865 indyamericanblog
indyamericanblog's picture

Euro goes down, Dollar goes up til Euro splits apart and we see France and Germany issue  Francs and DMs again. Then DM and maybe Franc rise a lot, relative to the USD.

Temporary respite for USD in my opinion.

 

 

 

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:33 | 226877 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

typical Elliot wave behavior. Would have come,and if the news didn't attribute the fall to Greece,then it would have attributed it to Spain,Ireland Italy or even to the full moon behavior. Just look at the last three legs down and how they were all followed by exactly three days of green candle slightly to the upside.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 13:37 | 226882 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm just happy to see that the Euro (or it's revived legacies) might bottom out just in time for my kids to take their grand tour. It might even be better than it was in the mid-80's when you could live like a socialist dictator on your paper route money.

How do you say "supersize that!" in Esperanto?

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 14:34 | 227077 the.spear
the.spear's picture

aaa--and de-ad.

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 15:33 | 227206 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How ya doin' with that 10 lot you sold down there+

Thu, 02/11/2010 - 22:59 | 227915 omi
omi's picture

Trade what you see in front of you and don't guess whether it's the IMF or another colloboration. The trade setups up in the charts 1st. News is just a confirmation.

Fri, 02/12/2010 - 00:41 | 228029 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

Choppy sideways action with mixed signals for DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER continues.

The  DOW / SP500 / EURO / COPPER downtrend will not resume until the ongoing support ceases.

So although trends on their daily charts remain down, more counter trend rally is possible.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

 

Fri, 02/12/2010 - 07:41 | 228206 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

Previous choppy sideways action for DOW/SP500 and EURO have resolved once again to the downside.

Very choppy mixed signals continue but daily trends for DOW/SP500/EURO will always remain down.

So the SP00/DOW downtrend and the USD uptrend reasert their dominance yet again.

This trend will get stronger.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

Fri, 02/12/2010 - 16:18 | 229000 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Euro continues to get hammered against most G-7 pairs

new 52wk low EUR/AUD
http://twitter.com/empirasign_fx/status/9022038456

same against Swedish Kronor
http://twitter.com/empirasign_fx/status/9015536784

and the NOK which is perhaps the most over-valued currency in the world

Mon, 04/19/2010 - 10:13 | 307826 Tom123456
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