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Euro Jumps On News Of Latest Agreement Between Germans And French As Market Prices In Nth Greek Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture


The EURUSD is pushing higher in the low volume afterhours session after a Reuter report that the German and French delegations have reached an agreement over Greece. Since this is about the 6th "pricing in" of Greek  bailout, we can't help but be extremely skeptical that this short-lived bounce will promptly reverse especially since the USD is about to pop on comparable good news to come out from the Obama meeting with Boehner.

From Reuters:

Euro jumps half a cent to $1.4260 in Asia on news Germany and France had reached a joint position on a financial bailout for Greece . Adds to hopes Thursday's EU emergency meeting might actually make some progress on the impasse over Greek debt. Top private bankers will attend the meeting, which is due to start around 1000 GMT. But dealers all too aware that the market has been disappointed before and euro vulnerable to a pullback. Support at $1.4133 with resistance now at $1.4282.

Still plenty of uncertainty over the US debt ceiling talks, with much political manoeuvring going on. The Fed has been drawing up plans should the country default . USD broadly softer as a result, with its index off 0.5 pct at 74.849. It also edged down to 0.8197 Swiss francs and 78.88 yen. Asian focus on HSBC's flash PMI for China due at 0230 GMT, amid talk it could dip below 50.0. Such a result could rekindle worries of a hard landing, even though recent upbeat GDP data suggested the overall economy was still travelling well.

And from Bloomberg:

Merkel, Sarkozy listened to arguments brought forward by ECB
President Jean-Claude Trichet, who attended part of the meeting,
Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s spokesman said. They exchanged views
with EU President Herman Van Rompuy by telephone,
Seibert said. Joint Franco-German position will  be presented to
leaders at today’s summit in Brussels by Van Rompuy, Seibert

And from the FT:

No immediate details were available but Steffen Seibert, a spokesman for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said “a common German-French position” had been agreed and ­discussed with Jean-Claude ­Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, and Herman van Rompuy, president of the European Union.

The breakthrough came after Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, rushed to Berlin to hammer out a Greek rescue plan that could include €71bn (£63bn)
in bail-out funds from global lenders and a €50bn tax on eurozone banks, proceeds from which would be used to buy back 20 per cent of Greece’s €350bn in outstanding debt.

The proposals, included in a plan circulated by the European Commission ahead of an emergency summit on Thursday, also include a bond exchange programme under which private owners of Greek debt would be encouraged to swap their holdings for new 30-year bonds. The swap plan could reduce Greek debt by an estimated €90bn. It would be offered, with credit sweeteners, to owners of bonds due in the next eight years.



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Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:01 | 1475518 swissaustrian
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Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1475847 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 +100 Very. Sell the EUR short; right now.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:32 | 1475965 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I went short euro at $1.44, sold that last week@ $1.40 and I am ready to go in again!
But I would have made more if I simply went long gold...
This time gold may stay steady for a week or so, tough.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:00 | 1475519 camoes
camoes's picture

I think George Constanza is running the market, seriously!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:36 | 1475602 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

That was the best Jerrry!.. THE BEST !!!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:07 | 1475527 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Rock Rock Rock the boat, slowly down the waterfall...

This all is Novacain for the soul.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:08 | 1475533 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

sd as belgian, you should be a happy man today

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:20 | 1475558 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Today it rained again over here...

I have 2 kids running like they're on speed around the house who really need to go out and play...

My wife is all stressed out because of it, so chances are I ain't getting any tonight.

Best summer ever... it hasn't stopped raining for weeks now.

I just had to go on vacation when the weather over here was like all heatwave and come back when it started raining...

I'm going nuts over here and by this time around tomorrow, I'm out of beer and the shops will be closed because of the national Holiday.

The most funny thing was watching our King yell to everybody on television about our government and that we all have to get along or our economy will go down the shitters. WHERE HAS THIS GUY BEEN FOR THE LAST 3 YEARS?!


But hey, I bet they'll have beer at the fireworks tomorrow.


Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:22 | 1475570 koeleköpke
koeleköpke's picture

is it correct that he has a bastard daughter


Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:25 | 1475581 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I was visualizing Benny Hill there for a second running around and prostrating himself before a king like on Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:42 | 1475618 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I guess you just drank all your beer to he?

I'm European... over here, not everybody is 400 pounds overweight.


Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:33 | 1475593 mynhair
mynhair's picture

SD, NO BEER?  Poor Planning makes for Pissless Performance...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:40 | 1475611 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I had 2 friends coming over who drunk my supply... I didn't really count on that.

I've never been in the army... I guess it's there that you learn how to cope with problems like that...

Bad logistics can cripple even the best armies.

Another line in the book of life lessons I guess.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:22 | 1475707 mynhair
mynhair's picture

My sincerest sympathies.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 02:35 | 1476266 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

A Belgian without beer. The world is truly coming apart. Hang on, SD!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:43 | 1475620 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Raining here too.

Ask me about that democracy thing - never voted for the Euro, was never asked if I want to give up that Deutsche Mark, never asked to bailout anyone, never asked to vote for any of these clowns in Brussels  - listen, things aren't sunny here as well. Low income Germans lost a staggering 23 % of their income since 2000. There is only one group in Germany - the well earning group that benefited since 2000 (so just >10 % of the population).

I look around and all I see here in my country - more closed shops, more closed public baths, more closed kindergartens, schools - sure, we don't need them. Oh, we don't have any debt at all...

Ever heard of that agreement in Germany - where West Germany sends money over to former East Germany - to rebuild it? Soli - as in solidarity? How did that turn out?

I give you a hint: Things in Western Germany got worse since then - West German cities are on the brink of bankruptcy, while some Eastern munis just payed off all their debt (with the money of that soli of course). Look, I am not saying everything went good for East Germans - it was hard time for them too...

Now I am in this union. Hey, I am not an enemy of the European idea - but do I think the EU is the best we can accomplish in Europe? Nope. It's not.

I do not want to rebuild Greece as they say now in every German newspaper - do you know what kind of words they use?


Hey, what happened? Did we invade Greece again? I might have missed the part.

Because I didn't see those over Athens?

Why aren't we honest - just declare that there is no German nation anymore - no Austria, no France, no Greece, no Belgium - they ceased to exist - just the United States of Europe (you may like another name for it)

Or we go the opposite route - back to where everything was before the Euro - which according to some German analysts would mean the end of the European idea / union / culture - whatsoever - the end of everything else...

Just imagine, Sudden - dream with me - we might have a good chance to win that Soccer world cup...

sorry for the rant part - hey I've nothing against those Greek people, nothing against any other just pisses me know - the last decade - for a normal German it was a lost one - no investment at all, closing everything we liked or had (trying to solve our debt issues), losing income, more tax, our society breaking more and more apart, getting ridiculed for that manufacturing (and our business elite are busy to ship that part to China too - they always tried to copy their American cousins)...

And now they want to switch off the lights on the Belgian highways...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:25 | 1475709 Reptil
Reptil's picture

That's pretty dangerous with all the potholes. Nearly killed me once when I hit one with the front wheel of my old bike.

I think I get their plan: They're shit scared of the bond market, and now do a funny dance to distract from the issue of their huge mistake, while they hope the repugnidemocraps in the new world finish their drama play. Because they really expected summer 2011 to be like summer 2010. Pissmonkeys.

What irks me the most (FWIW) is that they destroyed a perfectly good idea.
Eliminate bank tariffs, enable trade, let nations grow towards each other slowly (or not, if it doesn't work out)

But noooo, they had to corrupt everything and everyone they dealt with and wreck free capitalism in the process. Reward hollow promises with wads of community cash. Try to build empire on sneaky small print in treaties with the purpose of replacing Constitutions with a pieces of crap. Open backdoors to destructive forces that no one really wants here. Fuck them and everything they stand for. If tomorrow they mess it up, or pretend and then in 2 months fuck up, that means conflict. I'm not going to let them do a fucking TARP on us.

Rain here too. I welcomed it, working in a room with hot equipment. The birds seemed to like it. Got my M2000 NATO issue Gasmask in the mail today. The attire of modern man.

Hey, at least it's not black rain.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:06 | 1475920 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

"If tomorrow they mess it up, or pretend and then in 2 months fuck up, that means conflict. I'm not going to let them do a fucking TARP on us."

I am with you.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 07:02 | 1476364 PeeTee
PeeTee's picture


I always liked the European idea.
And I somehow still do. Peace and cooperation and so on.

Except for the fact that the political technocratic elite is just too keen to fuck everybody in the ass. But what's the alternative? Back to backward nation states?

Democracy is failing, in EU and US. So what are we going to do about it?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:52 | 1475644 Bob
Bob's picture

Yes, you still have plenty of time to restock on beer, fer godsake man!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:28 | 1475722 caerus
caerus's picture

goddam if belgian beer aint the best in the world

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:51 | 1475758 Trillax
Trillax's picture

Always been partial to German beer myself, but Belgian definitely doesn't suck.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:56 | 1475894 caerus
caerus's picture

agreed...Reinheitsgebot...fine pilsners, etc...depends on my mood but 14% abv belgians warm my blood  im also keen on good ipas we're getting our brewing shit together here in the states finally

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 23:20 | 1476079 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

+1 Belgian beer...very crisp. I like Canadian beer, but only in Canada.  The States waters down the imports, but they make some good brew in hockeyland.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 00:46 | 1476203 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

My boyfriend introduced me to Hoegaarden.

If you haven't tried it, I seriously recommend. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 06:54 | 1476360 PeeTee
PeeTee's picture

Since I'm Belgian, too, I have to jump into the discussion.


Try Hoegaarden Grand Cru. That's the stuff.

(been drinking that mainly when I was 16-17 though).

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:39 | 1475854 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Does the King speak Flemish, or Walloon? Don't you have a neighborhood pub?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:33 | 1475969 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You seem, to have found your Pub? 1.45   How does it feel to sit in your personal (OVAL OFFICE ?)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:05 | 1475528 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Can't believe that market believes it. Insane. Even if it works, it is about a month before we are back to the bailout table?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:09 | 1475538 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In 2 decades from now, we'll all make jokes about this.


Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:38 | 1475606 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

with you around i haven't found myself ever waiting.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:46 | 1475628 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

will it be a big joke when oil is priced in Euro's ?

This is Euro freegold transpiring right before our eyes.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:08 | 1475536 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Its all about the rally bitchez!!!! waaaahooooo PAR-TAY!!!!!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:09 | 1475539 Aductor
Aductor's picture

Let's pretend saving Greece say 99 times and I am confident everyone will feel the warm and cosy wealth effect.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:00 | 1475661 max2205
max2205's picture

Beatleguese beatleguese.... I am NOT saying it the third time

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:11 | 1475542 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

er, i thought Italy was the problem now, or is that fixed? or is it next weeks problem? or was it never a problem?

This 'world economy' is just one steaming pile of the worst kind of stinking s**t.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 02:40 | 1476270 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Italy can't be the problem yet, too big and skittish to handle for profit now.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:11 | 1475546 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Germany and France reached a "joint position"?  WTF does that even mean?  They are smoking a spliff?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:17 | 1475557 caerus
caerus's picture

the proper "joint position" is to the left

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:39 | 1475610 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Puff, Puff, Pass... Bogart..

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:35 | 1475599 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

We wuz gonna bail out Greece, but then we got high.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:20 | 1475941 KrugmansChauffeur
KrugmansChauffeur's picture


Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:17 | 1475560 camoes
camoes's picture

Markets freaking up about Spain in 1...2...3...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:18 | 1475565 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

It's all clownage ... Now back to Godzilla, Rodan, Mothra ...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:20 | 1475569 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The Greek bailout has been priced in so many times surely the entire debt is paid off by now.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:24 | 1475578 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


They might even be running a surplus by now :)

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:27 | 1475575 chump666
chump666's picture

48 hrs before the chaos erupts, low volume bulltrap.  There will be no bailout for Greece time-warp redux.  Germany and France (particularly France) have lost the plot, trying to push out rating agency influence in a bizarre old Europe communist asset cartel supporting thang.  The attempt is managing a full default without calling it a default...The EZ is a mess.  Germany should know better that socialist asset supporting conjobs collapse re: East Germany. 

Gotta love those French CDS's widen...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:26 | 1475583 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I am guessing that no one from Greece was in the room.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:06 | 1475676 Superslam
Superslam's picture

Exactly. Just as there were no Czechs at the Munich Conference.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:42 | 1475863 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Ouh! That 's harsh.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:27 | 1475584 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I can't believe people still short the Euro.  It is the braindead "I watch TV trade".  I have said it countles times and I will say it again.  The Dollar is an infinitely worse structural position that the Euro.  But people continue to watch TV and misunderstand they are being fed a distraction--A costly distraction.

Examine reality.

Beyond the fact that California is in exactly the same position as Greece, and far larger, all the Western central banks are working together to maintain currency pegs.  Beyond the fact that USA can print and Greece cannot print, all paper money is exactly the same thing.  You are looking at the new SDR/global currency in action.  It is cooperating central banks.  And it is all going down in flames in the end.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:27 | 1475585 Logans_Run
Logans_Run's picture

Agreement between the French and Germans? Impossible!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:29 | 1475588 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Of course it's possible.  They were buddy buddy in WWII (until we showed up.)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 02:43 | 1476272 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Invasion: the best way to make friends?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:48 | 1475632 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Renew!  Renew!  Renew!

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:31 | 1475590 chump666
chump666's picture

"50 billion tax on EURO banks" hahaha what the f*ck does that French midget smoke...crack?  Rather than haircuts on greedy french/german banks holding toxic PIIGS, a tax instead?  They have gone we get to short EURO banks/bank indexes now.  Fine.  As a liquidity crunch for the EZ gets closer and closer.  Goverments are dumb

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:46 | 1475630 Quintus
Quintus's picture

What he means is a 50 Billion tax on European banks, i.e. the City of London - where all the f*cking big banks are.  Now, we're not in the Eurozone, but that's never stopped the Eurotards sucking us dry (with the complicity of our treasonous politicians) to support their latest fantasy.  

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:15 | 1475697 chump666
chump666's picture

wont work. banks are genius at avoiding tax.  dumb idea, haircuts are better, thats a market tax/punishment for greed...and it works.  but the Eurozone have found communism again, bless them.  rating agencies will slam this down though...

Germany better pray China's PMI isn't sub 50 next few hrs

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:59 | 1476040 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

All taxes are paid by consumers. A hidden bailout the cost of which is borne by taxpayers, of course...

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:33 | 1475594 platoslast
platoslast's picture

The fundies haven't mattered in some time. With a quick look at the technicals...and based on one's particular objective...short term (tonight) or longer (next week), we could see a small pullback short term but longer, we will blow the $1.4282 out and head to an area closer to $1.4400 with clear potential for $1.4500. Reading the technicals as a leading indicator to the findamentals would say this budget deal with fall apart this week and we could see the boys in DC sweat the markets for another week. JMHO

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:34 | 1475597 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

those sons of Vichies

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:35 | 1475598 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Is this bullish, or just bullshit?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:42 | 1475613 Cursive
Cursive's picture

The Euro has had about 50 last meals before it's day with the executioner.  Pity that it might enjoy another 50 last meals prior to that relief....

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:46 | 1475629 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

we knew it would come to this. what else can we say? what else can we do?

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 19:55 | 1475649 Flounder
Flounder's picture

Really...Franco-German position?  I think I tried that once just for fun.  I can see Sarko being called on the carpet by the French bankers...vite vite allez allez nous n'avons plus d'argent.  Desperation.

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 20:25 | 1475718 carbon based unit
carbon based unit's picture

the € rallied and the people rejoiced on word that germany and france agree.  no word on what they've agreed to ... just that they agree.  isn't it flat-out amazing just how excited people can be over two parties agreeing ...


tthis could get interesting

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1475811 chump666
chump666's picture is now selling on rallies.

the deal essentially means banks will  be writing-down greek bonds via a massive tax bill to fund a Greek Bailout. 

total flop on confidence trick fail

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:26 | 1475820 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm on sabbatical...  Call me when the Bankstas get back from { Ponzi Central }

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 21:48 | 1475881 Goldtoothchimp09
Goldtoothchimp09's picture

just zipped off a message to the sales folk at --------

"There is no underground economic fight club - you understand?  Or we will cut off your balls.  We are the people who prepare your food."
Wed, 07/20/2011 - 22:41 | 1475987 chump666
chump666's picture

*HSBC China Flash PMI for June came in at 48.9 - the first reading below 50 since July 2010.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 01:01 | 1476216 chump666
chump666's picture

...and another thing so the banks get the hefty tax bill for the Greek bail-in, the EU lowers yields.  Wouldn't the banks then sell or rollover debt into higher yields.  Can't see banks wanting to hold Greek waste and also taxed for holding it.

Still smells like a default

Any bond nerds on here?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 04:14 | 1476297 Doc_Silver
Doc_Silver's picture

whatever is the solution after their todays will cost money and they throw euros out of the window because the infrastructure in Greece is still the same... nobody is paying taxes, you only have to work up to the age of 55 and if are a ticket seller in the metro you earn 6000 Euros a month. There is no possibility that such a system can work :-)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 06:47 | 1476357 luigi
luigi's picture

6000€/months? Where have you such fantasious information from? Nice bunch of clichées anyway...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 04:44 | 1476305 chump666
chump666's picture

EZ PMI extreme slowdown...and EU want to tax the liquidity providers i.e banks? EUR is sell

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