Eurogroup Approves Fifth Greek Bailout Tranche - Complete Statement And Math Fail
The very critical, and very insufficient 5th bailout tranche to Greece, has now been approved. From Reuters: "Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to disburse a further 12 billion euros to Greece and said the details of a second aid package for Athens would be finalised by mid-September. After a conference call, the 17 euro zone ministers agreed that the fifth tranche of the 110-billion-euro bailout agreed with Greece in May 2010 would be paid by July 15, as long as the IMF's board signs off on the disbursement. The IMF is expected to meet on July 8 to approve it. The payment will allow Greece to avoid the immediate threat of default, but the country still needs a second rescue package, which is also expected to total around 110 billion euros and which will now likely only be finalised in September. Between now and then, finance ministers will work on the "precise modalities and scale" of the private sector's involvement in the second aid package, which Germany hopes will eventually total around 30 billion euros. Greece said it expected a final decision on a second bailout programme by mid-September to keep the country financed. Eurogroup decided through a teleconference today to work out a new programme on time, before mid-September," Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said shortly after the finance ministers approved the 12 billion euro disbursement." More importantly, "The 12 billion euro payment will help Athens cover
a 5.9 billion euro bond redemption in August, but the government still
has a monumental hill to climb if it is to return to debt
sustainability, with its debt-to-GDP ratio above 150 percent."
Another update on the MLEC that failed with US subprime but is expected to rescue Greece:
Private financial institutions held talks with finance ministry and central bank officials in euro zone countries last week to discuss under what conditions the private sector would be willing to help finance Greece and by how much.
Those discussions continue, with the involvement of the private sector in the next package a must for several euro zone countries as voters grow increasingly opposed to shouldering the burden of bailing out Greece on their own.
But private sector involvement must be voluntary to avoid triggering another downgrade of Greek debt to default status by ratings agencies, a development which could put the whole Greek banking sector at risk.
The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, said on Friday that the "private financial community is ready to engage in a voluntary, cooperative, transparent and broad-based effort to support Greece given its unique and exceptional circumstances".
Schaeuble has said German banks wanted to roll over 3.2 billion euros' worth of Greek bonds maturing to 2014.
The full statement from the Eurozone is below, but in the meantime, here is a repost of the math involving the 5th bailout tranche:
Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out... And That's IF The Impossible Happens
Here is a simple summary of the Greek bailout math explained with just 2 numbers. First, the country has to do the impossible. As Citi's Jurgen Michels summarizes: "Once the whole new cabinet is announced, parliamentary discussions ahead of the vote of confidence will probably start on Sunday, with the vote actually taking place next week on Tuesday evening. Even if the new government manages to pass the vote of confidence, it will still have to submit to Parliament the new austerity package for approval, probably sometime later next week or the week thereafter. This will be key for the smooth disbursement of the next tranche of EU/IMF loans, of €12bn." In other words, the Greek government has to pass 2 near-Sysiphean tasks before it can even hope to sniff the IMF's €12 billion in rescue funding. That's number 1. Number 2 comes from the chart below, which shows the debt and interest payments through August. This number is €18.2 billion. This number does not include the billions in deficit spending that will also have to be funded somehow over and above debt paydown. Ergo, the math for a viable Greece is as follows: €12BN > €18.2BN + X. Simply said, unless somehow Greece discovers how to tax its citizens and actually record net revenue in July, the best the ECB can hope for before it has to mark its tens of billions in Greek bonds to about 45 cents on the dollar, is one month. So will someone please explain to us why again the EUR is up today? Actually the only possible reason is that Europe is now pricing in the fact that China will be the de facto owner of at least 2 European countries by this time next year, however not in an Asset Purchase Transaction but Stock, whereby China also acquires the liabilities. Which in turn may explain why Russia's just announced minutes ago that China may turn into "zone of risk" for the global economy.
Full statement from the Eurozone.