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Eurogroup Approves Fifth Greek Bailout Tranche - Complete Statement And Math Fail

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The very critical, and very insufficient 5th bailout tranche to Greece, has now been approved. From Reuters: "Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to disburse a further 12 billion euros to Greece and said the details of a second aid package for Athens would be finalised by mid-September. After a conference call, the 17 euro zone ministers agreed that the fifth tranche of the 110-billion-euro bailout agreed with Greece in May 2010 would be paid by July 15, as long as the IMF's board signs off on the disbursement. The IMF is expected to meet on July 8 to approve it. The payment will allow Greece to avoid the immediate threat of default, but the country still needs a second rescue package, which is also expected to total around 110 billion euros and which will now likely only be finalised in September. Between now and then, finance ministers will work on the "precise modalities and scale" of the private sector's involvement in the second aid package, which Germany hopes will eventually total around 30 billion euros. Greece said it expected a final decision on a second bailout programme by mid-September to keep the country financed. Eurogroup decided through a teleconference today to work out a new programme on time, before mid-September," Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said shortly after the finance ministers approved the 12 billion euro disbursement." More importantly, "The 12 billion euro payment will help Athens cover
a 5.9 billion euro bond redemption in August, but the government still
has a monumental hill to climb if it is to return to debt
sustainability, with its debt-to-GDP ratio above 150 percent."

Another update on the MLEC that failed with US subprime but is expected to rescue Greece:

Private financial institutions held talks with finance ministry and central bank officials in euro zone countries last week to discuss under what conditions the private sector would be willing to help finance Greece and by how much.

Those discussions continue, with the involvement of the private sector in the next package a must for several euro zone countries as voters grow increasingly opposed to shouldering the burden of bailing out Greece on their own.

But private sector involvement must be voluntary to avoid triggering another downgrade of Greek debt to default status by ratings agencies, a development which could put the whole Greek banking sector at risk.

The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, said on Friday that the "private financial community is ready to engage in a voluntary, cooperative, transparent and broad-based effort to support Greece given its unique and exceptional circumstances".

Schaeuble has said German banks wanted to roll over 3.2 billion euros' worth of Greek bonds maturing to 2014.

The full statement from the Eurozone is below, but in the meantime, here is a repost of the math involving the 5th bailout tranche:

Greek Math: €12 Billion In, €18.2 Billion Out... And That's IF The Impossible Happens

Here is a simple summary of the Greek bailout math explained with just 2 numbers. First, the country has to do the impossible. As Citi's Jurgen Michels summarizes: "Once the whole new cabinet is announced, parliamentary discussions ahead of the vote of confidence will probably start on Sunday, with the vote actually taking place next week on Tuesday evening. Even if the new government manages to pass the vote of confidence, it will still have to submit to Parliament the new austerity package for approval, probably sometime later next week or the week thereafter. This will be key for the smooth disbursement of the next tranche of EU/IMF loans, of €12bn." In other words, the Greek government has to pass 2 near-Sysiphean tasks before it can even hope to sniff the IMF's €12 billion in rescue funding. That's number 1. Number 2 comes from the chart below, which shows the debt and interest payments through August. This number is €18.2 billion. This number does not include the billions in deficit spending that will also have to be funded somehow over and above debt paydown. Ergo, the math for a viable Greece is as follows: €12BN > €18.2BN + X. Simply said, unless somehow Greece discovers how to tax its citizens and actually record net revenue in July, the best the ECB can hope for before it has to mark its tens of billions in Greek bonds to about 45 cents on the dollar, is one month. So will someone please explain to us why again the EUR is up today? Actually the only possible reason is that Europe is now pricing in the fact that China will be the de facto owner of at least 2 European countries by this time next year, however not in an Asset Purchase Transaction but Stock, whereby China also acquires the liabilities. Which in turn may explain why Russia's just announced minutes ago that China may turn into "zone of risk" for the global economy.

Full statement from the Eurozone.


7 2 11 Eurogroup Statement

 

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Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:24 | 1422560 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Still doesn't create solvency nor solve the underlying problem about to hit the PIIGS with the second wave of truly major problems:

My Big Fat Greek Housing Crash

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:49 | 1422574 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Banks Sovereign toxic debt pour over on top of Greek clueless taxpayers heads. I would call this hard rain while the rainmaking deceptive Political elite throw the Greek taxpayers under the bus.

Hm.....Let the asset buying begin...debt slave bitchez....

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:39 | 1422577 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

To the Greeks:  Yamas!

To Frau Bundeskanzlerin Merkel:  Here's to ya, toots!  And "auf Wiedersehen" to the CDU in the up-coming state elections.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:14 | 1422626 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Yep...last nail, meet coffin.

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:48 | 1422701 They are all we...
They are all well Capitalised's picture

Yep, they'll be dancing in the streets in Berlin tonight.

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 01:51 | 1423624 malek
malek's picture

Well, the two upcoming state elections are in states where the CDU either never has been part of the ruling coalition, or not in a long time...
So who cares about those.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:42 | 1422580 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

problem: too much debt

solution: more debt

problem: weak/absent real economy

solution: break-neck austerity

makes no sense, but good for bankers.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:44 | 1422584 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

This is pure NWO folks. It is that simple. The sooner it collapses, the better off we will all eventually be. Chicoms can prop this up only so long. At some point reality WILL manifest itself. Keep in mind that ultimately it is human beings tasked with achieving the goals of this NWO design. Now imagine what their souls must look like?

Rot will fail.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:48 | 1422586 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

The first 2 near impossible events have taken place.

The 3rd will also happen. They will have to sell assets to raise the remaining 6.2 billion.

And the banks will waive part of their bond repayments.

They will take the haircut.

 

So where is the can now ?

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:43 | 1422824 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Let's be honest, asset sales are not going to happen any time soon, so the answer seems to be that the banks must agree to a "voluntary" debt swap,  done in a way that does not  trigger an ISDA event of default, or a ratings agency declaration of default.

The fact that this "voluntary" decision is essential to prevent a real failure to pay is going to make it very hard for the ratings agencies to let this one past, especially given what has been said previously.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:50 | 1422591 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

IMF = Ignorant Mother Fuc?ers

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:13 | 1422625 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Idiots Moving Fungibles

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:06 | 1422745 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

"IMF = Ignorant Mother Fuc?ers"

Quite the contrary...The ignorant hat is being worn by the Greeks. My hope is they get their head out of their ass, however they are not in enough pain yet.


Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:53 | 1422595 SloMoe
SloMoe's picture

I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a gryo today...

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:54 | 1422600 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Would you like cheese on it and how about a large order of French Fries?

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:12 | 1422622 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Fuck it. Mix up a fat and MSG hotshot and slam it here; I'm late for my cardiac appointment.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:51 | 1422596 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

"Precise modalities and scale"

Which PhD shithouse do I have to attend to get away with speaking badass mumbo jumbo like that.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 11:55 | 1422602 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

BillClintonisum 101

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:05 | 1422606 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Princeton, Oxford, preferrably with a Rhodes scholarship attached to it.

Or here in Germany first a BWL/VWL diploma (comparable to an MBA in Anglo-Saxonia) and then Dr. oec. (PhD) with an internship at the EU parliament in Brussels attached to it.

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:51 | 1422603 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Surely there is some type of pick-a-pay option Adjustable Rate product for a deadbeat sovereign. There must be more efficient ways to kick the can down the road forever without perpetual theater performed by bad actors who mix up their lies and their math. Put the whole damn country up for auction....Israel would jump right on it.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:55 | 1422608 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Bansters will not waive squat, Euro bond will save the day.

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:07 | 1422621 snowball777
snowball777's picture

If by 'Euro bond' you mean to say 'Chinese purchases of a Euro bond', perhaps.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:13 | 1422624 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And here comes the lying sack of s*it, Jun(c)ker, waving the NWO flag, out in the open declaring war against the member states. The actions so far by these eurofanatic kleptocrats have been just what he says now out loud. Every member state will be brought to the slaughter if there's noone to stop these lunatics. People of Europe it's time to act and defend yourselves.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/03/us-greece-juncker-idUSTRE7620Z...

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:12 | 1422632 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

The question remains...What melody will the Greek taxpayers play to capture the Devil?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5zELTa9Ris

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:28 | 1422656 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Here's a nice debate in the German Bundestag about Germany's exit from nuclear power generation.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm4oLXJH8K8&feature=related

 

As you can see our parliament is pretty spartanically designed, not as pompous as in other countries.

Down to earth I might say.

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 12:36 | 1422668 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

And for bending over, so that their creditors can be bailed out, Greek citizens get this statement from the man who lies when it is really really important:

"The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited," he told Germany's Focus magazine in the interview released on Sunday, adding that teams of experts from around the euro zone would heading to Greece."

"One cannot be allowed to insult the Greeks. But one has to help them. They have said they are ready to accept expertise from the euro zone," Juncker said.

Looking forward to the BWIC on greek assets. Or will is just go directly to China?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/07/03/uk-greece-juncker-idUKTRE76210120110703

 

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:51 | 1422686 silver surfer
silver surfer's picture

Eu's legislative bureaucrats is now working overtime to have new insolvency prosedings harmonised and simplified all over the Eurosone by the end of September!

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/econ/am/869/8...

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/FindByProcnum.do?lang=2&procnum=INI/2...

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//NONSGML+COMP...

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:27 | 1422786 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Assuming someone does not default by then.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 13:48 | 1422700 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And next year there will be elections and a right wing government will be elected who will promise heaven again and promise to "fight the greedy banks and IMF" and Europe will lose it's money.

 

unless they ban elections... but that can't happen.

 

Any government promessing to "fix" it all back to the old will be elected. Why would the Greeks not believe that and vote for them?

 

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:34 | 1422764 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Greeks will soon be at the crossroads. They will have a choice: Take the debt slave devils road to hell or pull yourselves up by your boot straps and take care of business.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Qgc_PNpdx8&feature=related

 

 

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:37 | 1422809 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Bootstrapping or booting refers to a group of metaphors that share a common meaning: a self-sustaining process that proceeds without external help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:26 | 1422781 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The can kicking is endless. Go ahead and default now. Take your lumps. They are coming no matter what your gov't does.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1422801 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

That's gold down a minimum of $20 tomorrow.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 15:09 | 1422869 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

"precise modalities and scale"

 

That is boilerplate I get in all those Nigerian SCAMS.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 18:44 | 1423168 swissinv
swissinv's picture

why is the eur up? here some wise words from jim rogers:

I still own the euro, it`s one of the currencies I own. The euro is in a much better fundamental situation than the US Dollar, which I also own. Europe has a balance of trade surplus for the most part, it`s not a large debtor entity, it has some large debtor entities within it. But no, Europe is not such a disaster. -in Bloomberg

forget the tiny greece - in august it is really getting serious with the usd and the us eu propaganda won't work anymore - the problems of the eu are minor when compared to the us or japan

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 18:46 | 1423171 maxcody
maxcody's picture

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 18:46 | 1423172 maxcody
maxcody's picture

Meet your new Over Lord - China.

Sun, 07/03/2011 - 20:56 | 1423308 Herbert_guthrie
Herbert_guthrie's picture

"The sovereignty of Greece will be massively limited"

Got news for ya, as the debt war progresses, the sovereignty of the entire planet will be massively limited.....

Mon, 07/04/2011 - 02:15 | 1423640 time123
time123's picture

Looks like it is about time to get bulish again.

 

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