Europe Goes From Worse To Horrible: Ireland Broker Than Expected, Greece Mulls Splitting Up Into "Good" And "Bad" Greece

Tyler Durden's picture

Greece hasn't even filed for bankruptcy yet and the "unexpected" consequences are already coming. In comments to The Sunday Times newspaper, Irish Transport Minister Leo Varadkar said the country will likely need another "unexpected" loan from the troica, after he became the first cabinet member to cast doubt in public on Ireland's ability to raise cash. In other words once on the temporary bailout wagon, always on the temporary bailout gain. Reuters reports: "I think it's very unlikely we'll be able to go back next year. I think it might take a bit longer ... 2013 might be possible but who knows?" Varadkar was quoted as saying. "It would mean a second program (of loans from the EU/IMF)," he said. "Either an extension of the existing program or a second program. I think that would generally be most people's view." We wonder how German taxpayers will fell now that they realize they have not one, not two, but three (and soon 5 or more) heroin addicts they need to clean, wash, scrub, and feed on a monthly basis (with their, and US money, but Americans continue to not care that the biggest source of capital for the IMF is them). And speaking of ground zero, Greece is now scrambling after the Independent said that even Sarkozy is now prepared to let the Greek chips falls where they may. Following earlier news that the troika believes that the privatization plan it itself set up is not ambitious enough, Greece which now realizes that Germany, the EU, IMF, and Franch all are prepared to let it go, the country is now coming up with last ditch ideas faster than a speeding bullet: according to Reuters: "A Greek paper reported on Sunday that the government was considering setting up a Spanish-style "bad bank" to clean up its lenders' accounts from "toxic" Greek bonds and make them more attractive to potential buyers." Of course since it is toxic Greek sovereign bonds we are talking about, this implies that the country will somehow be split into a "good" and "bad" version of itself. And who thought financial innovation only comes out of the US.

From Reuters:

A 'bad bank', formed to hold risky assets owned by a state guaranteed bank, could be set up to absorb the risky Greek bonds held by state-controlled lenders slated for privatization, such as the Savings Post Bank, To Vima said.

"With problematic, Spanish savings banks (cajas) as a model, the finance ministry is examining proposals to implement the idea in the country," it said, without citing any sources.

Spain's Bankia, created from the merger of seven cajas, said last month it would create such a unit in a bid to attract investors ahead of a stock market listing.

Probability of success: 0.0%

As for Ireland being broker than expected:

Deputy Prime Minister Eamon Gilmore told broadcaster RTE that fears of a domino effect from Greece's problems were overblown. The possibility of a Greek default has sent bond yields rocketing for indebted Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

"It's not a situation that if Greece defaults then there are immediately implications for Ireland," Gilmore said.

"If Greece defaults there are implications for the wider euro zone and obviously we are part of that."

Ireland, meanwhile, wants to tap investors for funding in 2012 before its 85 billion euros EU-IMF bailout runs out the following year.

But investors believe Ireland will be unable to return to the market and instead will have to tap the European Union's permanent rescue fund in 2013, which might require some restructuring of privately held sovereign debt.

Reflecting this medium-term risk, Ireland's two-year and five-year paper are yielding close to 12 percent, more than its 10-year bonds on the secondary market.

Some 50 billion euros of the existing EU-IMF bailout has been earmarked for sovereign funding requirements with the remainder set aside to prop up the country's ailing banks.

Earlier this month, the IMF said whatever was left over after recapitalizing the banks could be channeled to the sovereign if there was a delay in returning to markets.

At the end of March, the Irish government said the banks needed 24 billion euros to bulletproof their balance sheets but Dublin hopes some five billion euros can be raised from imposing losses on junior bondholders and asset sales, meaning that 19 billion euros of the 35 billion would be tapped.

Gilmor's best defense: "It is wrong to put Ireland in the same basket as Greece."And coming soon to a theater next to, the story of the deputy PM who cried not bankrupt wolf.

The US may be on vacation, but the EUR, at a third of its regular volume and with substantially more volatility, sure won't be come 5 pm EDT.

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gkm's picture

You lost me at 'broker'.

knukles's picture

It means that the Greeks are openly entertaining discussions with "brokers" to attempt to take all the bad shit that's on thier books, transfer it to another specially set up entity that they say they will guarantee, which means all of the crapola is the collateral, have the ratings agencies rate it investment grade, sell bonds against it to morons, fools, little old ladies, infirmed children that have no chance whatsoever of getting their money back, promising profusely that they'll never fuck it up again so that they think that they can sell debt into the open market without the baggage which everybody knows is immaterial, for which the ECB will pay 100% for the collateralized hocus pocus since it's highly rated (anything backed by ouzo and stale baclava is money good) as well as the new reformed (heh heh... whose ever gonna trust the people that invented and had named after their counrty, Greek sex) country.  Where everybody will still be on vacation, protesting, not paying taxes, screwing the system and otherwise just not giving a fuck all about that shit in any case.

Easy as a fee to Goldman.

 

your neighbor's picture

have they considered selling the naming rights of the countries?

knukles's picture

LOL
Like name the Acropolis the "Goldman Arena".  I can just see it now, bright neon lights plastered over the returned Elgin Marbles...

 

                      Goldman Arena
               "Another Day of God's Work"

your neighbor's picture

I was thinking of Xe or Kellogg Brown & Root. They need to recruit more cost efficent labor... 

disabledvet's picture

no, but they have considered enforcing copyright on various Greek God's and names.  For example "it's now Adonis(tm)" and "Democracy (patented)."  Each time either a Greek name or system is used they are allowed a "Royalty (sic)"  Rumor(tm) is "Nike's first."

knukles's picture

"You never forget your first Nikeing."

speconomist's picture

So con we expect the Euro plummeting at the opening as much as last week?

bugs_'s picture

maybe greece will split into "bad" and "indifferent" rather than :"good".

(h/t ren/stimpy)

margaris's picture

good = everything other than ATHENS

bad = all the places where big fat greek weddings took place

topcallingtroll's picture

The euro will strengthen if greece leaves and ireland pegs to the pound.

It is really not a huge amount of bad debt from a pan european perspective unless portugal joins brazil in a monetary union and spain is forced to leave.

Spain being extremely feudalistic and slightly nazi in its character will clamp down on its population and squeeze them harder to remain in the euro, but there is no way in the long run if the amount of hidden spanish debt is anywhere near estimates.

Fiat2Zero's picture

Sorry, but no.

This is a house of cards. They are all indebted to each other. Greece and Ireland leaving will simply confirm that the rats are jumping ship, and the Euro's days are numbered.

Spain will be the nail in the coffin. Why do you think we are hearing nothing of violent protests (in rich places like Barcelona for Chrisakes).

Spain is just the beginning. The people on the bottom have figured out the game and the jig is up. Expect _massive_ change as everyone realizes that the Arab spring, is really the beginning of the war of the poor against the rich.

disabledvet's picture

I hear "kereitsu" ain't doing so well right now either.

BorisTheBlade's picture

It is really not a huge amount of bad debt from a pan european perspective

The whole system is one big house of cards, you let one card fall, the whole system goes crumbling. That's because system reached debt saturation level, one has to issue new debt to pay the one already on the books, in that situation all debt is bad as it can never be repaid from the taxes, was never meant to be.

serotonindumptruck's picture

Black Swan event may be imminent.

Sudden Debt's picture

Whatever they say, whatever they do, bond rates like theirs can't be afforded for a long time.

Yep, they're doomed.

Question is: who's next.

 

Motorhead's picture

When is Belgium's number up?

takinthehighway's picture

I was thinking more along the lines of "When The Levee Breaks".

equity_momo's picture

Yup.  Increase in draconian capital controls.  Savers of fiat should start to worry , i know i am.   I doubt any Greeks or Irish with more than a simple 100k or so have it left in their institutions.   System is going into its death rattle.

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...have no doubt! This train has sailed right into the ''well timed'' masonic tomb.

Hacksaw's picture

I have an idea, why doesn't these countries just spend whatever they are receiving in tax revenue? Can you say Iceland? Tell the TBTF financiers to stick it up their asses, refuse to pay debts, have however much government the people are willing to pay for.

If this way of thinking swept the globe I doubt there would be any $trillion bailouts for the TBTF financiers, no big tax breaks for the international corporate fascists, and serving in the government would be like jury duty, they would have to draft folks to be congress critters. What a wonderful world it would be.

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

You said it, bro.

I have a feeling I'd get laid more too.

scatterbrains's picture

or better yet Ireland should take one more massive toke of ecb/imf loan money and buy physical gold then throw a managed revolution, default on the loans and dare them to swoop in with their US/BANKSTER cruise missiles.

DonutBoy's picture

Yes, that's the right approach before you nationalize the debt.  Once you turn the TBTF financier's debt into the taxpayer's debt its too late.  In the case of the Fed, they largely bought the bad debt which the banks who replaced it with treasuries, so there's no repudiation possible.  In the case of a guarantee, which I believe in part is what's happened in Ireland - a repudiation is still possible with a new government rejecting the guarantee. 

dwdollar's picture

Bipolar Financing

breezer1's picture

they could all seek economic union with iceland. new currency could be called the herring.

Burnsy's picture

It certainly should plummet. But in bizarro-world, which I must remind everyone that we now live in, it could just as easily hit 1.45 as Papawhatshisface announces that they'll sell the Acropolis for a much needed 60 Bn Euros to Goldman Sachs. Fuck this bullshit.

Burnsy's picture

One minute you're making some random shit up and the next minute your ramblings are confirmed by a major news source. Seriously now, fuck this bullshit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/29/greece-poll-idUSLDE74S03420110529

Somebody please be an adult and inform Greece and Ireland that they are

1. Broke

2. Not benefitting from this bailout crap in the long run

This quote from a great article in Der Spiegel sums up the facts. One quote in particular stands out:

To ensure its national survival, Ireland should reject the European rescue effort and, instead, accept the failure of its banks as a necessary evil, Morgan Kelly recently said. The renowned professor of economics at University College Dublin knows who would be especially hard-hit by such a step: the ECB.

"The ECB can then learn the basic economic truth that if you lend €160 billion to insolvent banks backed by an insolvent state, you are no longer a creditor: you are the owner" Kelly wrote in the Irish Times earlier this month.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,764299,00.html

 

 

 

 

 

downwiththebanks's picture

They're only 'broke' if you believe the 'money' 'owed' to Banker-Gangsters is legitimate.  

It's not.  

Urban Redneck's picture

Surely you don't think the bankers loaned their own fat bonus bucks to the deadbeats?  No, they risked their depositors' paychecks and pensions - M.A.D. 

 

If ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril.

 

Muir's picture

@Burnsey

thanks for link, answers a lot of questions.

What assets and how.

_http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,764299,00.html_

"About 48 percent said Greece's first priority should be boosting growth, 38 percent suggested proceeds from assets sales should be used to kick start the economy and 35 percent said the money should be used to help pay down its towering debt.


European Union officials have asked Athens to step up privatisations urgently and suggested setting up a trustee institution to help oversee the process, similar to the body that privatised East German companies after the fall of communism. [ID:nLDE74K046]


First in line for privatisation will be divestments in Savings Post Bank (GPSr.AT), OTE Telecom (OTEr.AT) and the country's two biggest ports.


A second wave next year will include an up to 34 percent stake in gaming firm OPAP (OPAr.AT) and an up to 17 percent of Public Power Corp (PPC) (DEHr.AT).


Some 71 percent agreed with Greece selling its stake in OPAP with 65 percent favouring PPC's stake sale.


The nationwide poll conducted with a sample of 1,264 people May 17-20 also showed that nine of 10 Greeks backed the government's plan to redevelop the site of the capital's old airport at Hellenikon. Officials have said the project could raise 5-7 billion euros.


In another opinion poll on Saturday, the ruling Socialists lost their lead for the first time since 2009 elections, while another showed them slightly ahead of the opposition. [ID:nLDE74R0BW]


Struggling to impose austerity measures to pull the country back from the brink of bankruptcy, the ruling PASOK socialists are seeing their popularity wane, while the main New Democracy opposition party is not benefiting their opponents' decline.


"Citizens seem to be disappointed and exhausted from the ecomomic policies," Pulse head George Arapoglou said. "PASOK continues to slide so New Democracy was expected to come ahead although it shows no marked improvement."


The next election is due in late 2013."

serotonindumptruck's picture

Under that scenario, I would expect a sharp rise in the arms trafficking into that region of Europe. Both escalation in civil unrest and the level-of-force used by the state to mitigate such unrest would seem to be the logical consequence.

Use of Weapons's picture

Already costed in.

There's a reason Greece has been #4 in the world on arms imports for a while now. More importantly, they didn't gear up & help the coalition of the somewhat-willing, so still have them all. Somewhere. In storage. For their vast army. Ahem.

However, they do own 18% of the entire global shipping fleet, so who knows where that storage is. Apparently storing oil at sea in a tanker is cost effective, so perhaps it's the same with small arms.

serotonindumptruck's picture

I suspect that there are still a wide variety of arms available from the former Yugoslavian states. Macedonia and Kosovo being the likely transit corridor.

Use of Weapons's picture

Does The Company still have a vested interest in the KLA? If it were the transit corridor, I'd suspect more political protection of the fronts.

People forget / ignore that Greece still has conscription, and a 37.1 / 1000 available and 14.6 / 1000 active serving. This is three times the weighting of the USA. If/when the shit hits the fan, there's a large section of the population [i.e. most males] who actually know how to fight.

 

And there's all those imports. Somewhere.

YHC-FTSE's picture

Typical of the Greeks to come up with a schizophrenic solution. Good luck with that one, Victor/Victoria! Looks like Greece will be out of the Eurozone (Though probably not out of the EU) and into the Drachma. 

 

This describes most countries' economic plans perfectly: 

"Schizophrenia is a mental disorder characterized by a disintegration of thought processes and of emotional responsiveness.It most commonly manifests as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions, or disorganized speech and thinking, and it is accompanied by significant social or occupational dysfunction."

HamyWanger's picture

Greece is fine. Ireland is fine. 

Don't listen to permagloomers. A default can't happen because it would mean that the goldbugs have won, and the Pigmen will never allow such an humiliation. 

theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

We still win, just later and with more gold!

Muir's picture

"A default can't happen because it would mean that the goldbugs have won"

"We still win, just later and with more gold!"

__

And you are both wrong, worldwide defaults means goldbugs have lost.

Rossalgondamer's picture

How can you be so headless?

All perfect things on a downswing arise.

 

monkeys.pick.bottoms's picture

Mr. HamyWanger again in his enjoyable red herring role of taking a piss. Greetings. The only question is when Greece defaults. I'm betting mid June (what if Mr. Martin Armstrong is right, after all?)

Mentaliusanything's picture

Thursday 16th June ??

No - it will be because the advanced mid year reporting figures will be on the executives desk and they will hit the "sell all my shares button" on reading the bottom line. The big dip is baked in.

It will be ugly even with all the lipstick on the Pig

Comrade de Chaos's picture

You (HW) are missing one important aspect of the sovereign indebtedness. Unlike the corporations which avoid defaulting till the end, a government can chose to default due to considerations of a grave social impact of not doing so. As the matter of fact most sovereign defaults have happened prior to the government inability to pay those loans off.

 A government can chose not to tax, not to sell national treasures or not to undertak the extra round of austerity measures required by IFM. 

Also, it is very probable that the word default will be avoided and restructuring or some more politically correct term will be used, however for all practical purposes it will be what it will be - a default. 

In addition, the number of defaults world wide might exceed all of the expectations. It is always hard to take the first step, however once a certain country defaults first, it makes it much easier for everyone else to rationalize "hey they did it as well, we are not alone.." and go for a default before the technical default occurs.

 

p.s. let's not junk HW, he's entitled to his opinion. 

Muir's picture

"In addition, the number of defaults world wide might exceed all of the expectations. It is always hard to take the first step, however once a certain country defaults first, it makes it much easier for everyone else to rationalize "hey they did it as well, we are not alone.." and go for a default before the technical default occurs."

__

And how's this good news for silver?  _ edit: that was short for deflation

 

 

 

 

Smiddywesson's picture

Pigmen win by slowly buying gold and then announcing a gold standard, thereby making it their idea and presenting themselves as saviors of the world (when in fact they created all these problems)