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European Banks Now Feverishly Betting Against Euro, As Bailout Fails, Gold Surges

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Thought experiment: You are the head FX trader at French megabank Croc Monsieur & Cie. (HFT: CMC) For the past 5 years, your bonus has been getting paid primarily in company stock. In the last two weeks you have seen the stock of your firm plunge as the markets have finally realized that those idiots in the Fixed Income desk have loaded up to the gills with PIIGS debt which is now worth 60 cents on the dollar at best. And to top things off, the euro has plunged to multi year lows killing any chance of buying that New York Pied A Terre which seemed so cheap when the EURUSD was 1.50 a few months ago. So what do you do? Well, you short the living daylights out of the EUR, knowing full well that the EU, the IMF and the ECB will not let Europe crash. You sell, you sell on margin and then you sell some more, trying to get EURUSD all they way down to 1.20, to 1.10,  even to parity if possible, to make it all that more believable that the end of Europe is coming. And, lo and behold, on May 9 your plan succeeds: Europe agrees to bail your bonus out, by flushing $1 trillion under the pretext the money will be used to stabilize the periphery and the euro. Immediately the stock of CMC, and thus the value of your accrued bonus (several million worth), surges by a record 20% in one day. So you think: "How can I get an even greater bonus appreciation? Why - I will short the euro again. At this point I know that between myself and the other FX desks at all the other French and German banks we can easily take the euro down to 1.20 if not much lower. After all we are only trading against the very central banks that are keeping us alive. And when that happens Europe will have to print another trillion, then ten trillion, then one hundred trillion, all the while the stock portion of my accrued bonus surges. Brilliant." Brilliant indeed - Zero Hedge has received confirmation that several of the largest French banks are now actively shorting the euro to take advantage of globalized moral hazard, which with every ensuing bailout does nothing but make the bonuses of French FX traders surge. In other words, the very banks that Europe is bailing out are betting more and more aggressively with each passing day against Europe's own survival! Even George Soros has shed a tear of pride in how beautifully his initial plan to take on the BOE has mutated for the Bailout Generation.

And overnight, the traders from the imaginary CMC, and other all too real French banks (and now US hedge funds), are succeeding, as the last traces of this weekend's $1 trillion bailout are long forgotten: futures are plunging, Asia is collapsing, the EURUSD is probing a 1.26 handle and we see it easily going back down to 1.25, even as gold surges.

We anticipate another record bailout to be announced by Europe within the month as Europe now has no other choice. And each subsequent bailout will only lead European banks to bet even more aggressively against the survival of Europe, which destroys more and more European taxpayer capital. Welcome to Global Moral Hazard.

 

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Tue, 05/11/2010 - 09:45 | 343249 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 Silver is getting ready to have a rodium moment..

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 08:53 | 343181 JacksCompleteLa...
JacksCompleteLackOfSuprise's picture

hmm whats up with that, JPM short covering?

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 08:57 | 343188 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I might just have to roll in my pile of silver today if this keeps up.

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 08:59 | 343190 qussl3
qussl3's picture

I betting on it doubling :P

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 09:00 | 343191 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

Instant Karma is correct indeed.  "better get your act together and join the human race." Do you folks even know what a school board meeting is? Oh, that's right.  That's "someone else money so we should spend that, too."  As Rahm's sign says, "GFY."

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:06 | 343283 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Instant karma is a prick head CIA profiler. She's not interested having you "join the human race" only in getting you coralled into your sheep pen.

Thu, 05/12/2011 - 02:15 | 343212 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 

H1,

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:01 | 343276 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

He picks up Gideon's Bible

It's open at page one

It says God, he stole the handle

And the train it won't stop going

No way to slow down

No way to slow down

No way to slow down

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:10 | 343290 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I'm about to have a Silvergasm.....

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:16 | 343305 drwells
drwells's picture

Amazing. $1T doesn't even buy you a full day. I suspect the world is going to look rather different by Friday.

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:25 | 343331 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Hmm, noticing a conspicuous absence of the can't eat gold posts...

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 11:00 | 343414 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

And MB's, "canned ham, bitchez".

Sun, shine on me!

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 11:43 | 343573 Hulk
Hulk's picture

MB and his canned ham lines, those were pretty funny.

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 20:37 | 344993 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The absence of MB and Harry makes the day twice as glorious.

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:45 | 343378 Arthur
Arthur's picture

You would think the Eurocrates would have watched and learned from the behavior of the big U.S. banks and implemented measures to prevent themselves from being abused by the very banks they are trying to save.  Greed before country.  Always has been, always will be. 

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 10:46 | 343381 Kina
Kina's picture

For banksters interest. Last public garroting was in 1897. Bringing down countries for personal greed would have qualified many of you.

 

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 11:15 | 343477 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

We can only hope and pray.

Tue, 05/11/2010 - 11:17 | 343486 JacksWastedLife
JacksWastedLife's picture

Time to relax and watch the next big thing - California.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 01:31 | 987706 shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

Greece To Place Request For First Tranche Of EU/IMF 110 Bln Euros Aid Today." The race to the bottom begins. Hell....I think I'll stop by and ask for 10BB (I hope my fat finger didn't get in the way)...that should keep me for a couple of months...nice to know

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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 05:23 | 1187212 shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

Greece To Place Request For First Tranche Of EU/IMF 110 Bln Euros Aid Today." The race to the bottom begins. Hell....I think I'll stop by and ask for 10BB (I hope my fat finger didn't get in the way)...that should keep me for a couple of months...nice to knowccnp security practice exam
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Mon, 04/25/2011 - 07:03 | 1202891 george22
george22's picture

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Sun, 05/22/2011 - 23:53 | 1301107 kummar
kummar's picture

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Mon, 07/11/2011 - 01:43 | 1442782 john310
john310's picture

The absolute funniest part of this whole thing is watching the pols scramble to try to manage the economy, which is, of course, impossible. What is revealing about it is this: they still have their heads stuck firmly in the old paradigm, the one they grew up with, inculcated in them by Greenspan, that the Fed has always got their backs, that the system can go on forever based on lies and borrowed money /scbcd braindumps/scmad braindumps/VCP-410 dumps/640-802 dumps/SY0-301 dumps/350-030 dumps/000-118 dumps/000-977 dumps/1Y0-A19 dumps/E22-275 dumps

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Wed, 07/13/2011 - 08:05 | 1451065 hama
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IMF and the ECB will not let Europe crash. You sell, you sell on margin and then you sell some more, trying to get EURUSD all they way down to 1.20, to 1.10, even to parity if possible, to make it all that more believable that the end of Europe is coming. And, lo and behold, on May 9 your plan succeeds.
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