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European Race To The Insolvency Bottom Round Two: Contestants - Spain, Portugal And Belgium
The round robin stage of the European championship to determine the most insolvent country ended with two very clear winners: Greece and Ireland. And with that stage over, we are now clearly entering the direct elimination rounds. Meet the first thre contestants, whose sovereign bond prices, after a healthy pick up in buying from the ECB, are once again hitting the skids. That said, it is difficult to determine who has a leading position: it appears that all three countries' economies are just as shitty. And the coolest thing: the winner, takes the runner up with them, as one insolvency wipes out what little backstop capital is left to prevent the house of tilted dominoes from falling.
Spain 10 Year bond prices...
Portugal...
And Belgium:
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These charts kinda remind me of the US 10 yr treasury price action...
C'mon...could it be any more fucking obvious now!?!?
The dollar starts to break through support overnight and here come the Euro problems again. This is all nothing but completely manipulated nonsense.
TD: If you can, you should construct a chart or timetable of the USD/EUR and overlay headlines. Their manipulative intent would be clear for all to see.
Excellent idea. I'm right there with you, turd!
HE! Don't call Turd a Turd!
he has feelings to you know!
Yes, please. Also overlay the prices of commodities and precious metals in your analysis. Has everyone else gotten a piece of the Lithium pie yet? Remember, all that lithium has to be transported too. Anyone know who is moving the metal?
Manipulated? sure..."beggar thy beggar" etc...
but i'll still put 3 maples on Spain to "win"
Turd,
The euro is a big circle jerk around 1 rate. The euro issues will continue and get much worse over the next year. Pepare Accordingly.
and like that the dollar crap is solved?
Before the launch of the euro in 1999, Milton Friedman predicted that the Eurozone would not survive its first economic crisis.
He noted that in a world of floating exchange rates, if one country faces a shock, it could simply respond by letting the exchange rate change. But with the arrival of the euro, that option is no longer available.
Also ....
......"In substance, the current eurocrisis can be summarized to the systemic flaw that a single monetary policy for economies with highly different growth rates is not sustainable and leads to the leveling down of growth prospects. On average, the growth deficit due to the single currency can be estimated at a yearly 2 to 3%. For Spain and for Ireland particularly, the introduction of the euro caused an abrupt end to a most prosperous period of 20 years of unprecedented growth. As both a differential interest rate policy and a change of exchange rates are unfeasible in a monetary union, De Grauwe now recurs to the third instrument of monetary policy in order to contain future growth differentials. In order to control excessive credit expansion and the emergence of new bubbles, De Grauwe advocates differential reserve requirements. He proposes to impose higher reserve requirements to banks of fast-growing economies. This idea would indeed be most appropriate if only the practical realization would not presuppose restrictions on the free movement of capital. The promotion of the free movement of capital was the prime objective and justification politicians used to justify the euro project. Or how the single currency increasingly gets entangled in its own contradictions."......
And in the movie Back To The Future II, when Marty visits the year 2015, the is confronted by the fact that a cup of coffee costs 50 dollars. Funny thing because before that he visited the year 56 and there a cup of coffee was 4 cents.
Looks like I'll have to see that movie again to see what the reasons for that inflation where.
Good point, Spalding. However, for me, as long as the $ remains the reserve currency, then everything is about the dollar. Period.
The USDX moved from 75 to 81 after the announcement of QE2. Why? Suddenly the eurozone contagion was big news again. That all quiets down and down goes the $. As it breaks support overnight, confirming that the dead cat bounce is over, suddenly all PIIG cds skyrocket again? Way too much coincidence for me to swallow.
Irish sovereignty was sacrificed on the altar of Fed policy last time. Who's next?
Do you think that the Dollar will be the last fiat to die then? That they will do their best to pull down everyone else first to keep the game running?
Yes.
We will make a new deal with China. The others will get monkeyhammered beforehand.
Yes, shameful, I think that's exactly it.
Turd,
How will this play out in regards to gold/ the dollar. The breakup or reset of europe/euro will not be puppy dogs and ice cream. ( Hows the new biz ? Kids are happy I bet, Ice cream everyday !!!! Free- thanks dad)
How will gold play out as fear in euro crisis grips the globe but a rush into dollars plays out also .... ? I have been wondering this ....
Thanks for all the info you provide. Because even if I think this or that I always try to read/listen the thoughts from the otherside ... Thats the only way you learn and you give out a lot of information.
The biz is getting close to open but not yet. Keeping me very busy. Small businesses always do.
IMHO, all fiat are headed toward zero. Debts cannot and will not be repaid at current valuations. Gold will continue to rally as it is the only global currency that cannot be defiled by central banks. It can be manipulated, certainly, but in the end, the trend higher continues.
Since 2001, this bull market has annualized at about 25%. Absolutely no reason not to expect that trend to continue in 2011. 1400 + 25% = $1750 by this time next year. Hmmm, sounds just like TungstenMan Sachs latest prognostication. What a coincidence!
See I think we will see a handoff with China. We cant have global trade,global finance,forex, with just gold backing this up. Maybe after the new deal is done gold will be 15% of a new basket.. ?
But most of the world China, India, Brazil, U.S., Germany, Japan all want something close to the statis quo. Everything must balance over time China(EM) consumption/our (G7)spending.
Please don't get me wrong, Spalding, I'm with ya on this one.
China is converting their dollars for hard assets for the sole purpose of using those assets to create an at least partially asset-backed global reserve currency when the dollar finally becomes inviable.
Just like the US pimped out the $ from 1968 to today in order to create this great welfare state, so will China when they have the opportunity. I'd say the NWO of the China-created/backed SDR or currency will happen in this decade.
Not sure if you caught this yet, great info-
REUTERS 2011 INVESTMENT SUMMITJim Rogers ~ He covers many,many topics.
1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNGTxSUrwV0&feature=related
2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hevMUQVsprI&feature=related
3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZDVJ4L0Lbg&feature=related
4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOzU5d5I1p0&feature=related
5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7uYhnkYpFo&feature=related
thanks for posting these Spalding
+1
Yes, I think it is likely that the Dollar is the last fiat standing. Reason being that all the big speculators and Wall Street firms do live in the US. So why would they break the very environment they are living in. Don't misread this as patriotism, it is simly their self interest to not live through the chaos themselfs.
If there were more Amerikans like Jim Rogers (aka people that visited the world and actually even life abroad) then this might look differnt. But do you really expect the Wallstreet circus to mass-immigrate to Switzerland, Asia,...?
The dollar being the reserve currency/stength is also driven by the growth in other parts of the world. Oil, trade, ect ...
good idea.
+1
Very good observation!
Maintaining a position in bonds today requires
a keen eye and fleet footwork, no?
THis is gonna make THE Chairman very angry
Chairman MAObama?
:)
Good humor so early in the AM!
ECB BOND BUYING IS WORKING... or not!
I wonder when the sheeple of Europe realize, their tax money is being used to support the bankers and Wall Street banks and no one else -AND- their money will never be paid back.
everything will be bailed out....
did you hear of Mervyn Kings secret plan to bailout all the banks in 2008?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/13/wikileaks-mervyn-king-bank-bailout
Looks like a downtrend that is about to accelrate, for sure.
Time to put the "plan" in to action again.... ( Edit :@ doomandbloom greatminds & all that :-)
King said the G7 was "almost dysfunctional on an economic level" as key economies were not included. "It could be a temporary group and he suggested that perhaps the central banks and finance ministers of the US, the UK and Switzerland could coordinate discussions with other countries that have large pools of capital, including sovereign wealth funds, about recycling dollars to recapitalise banks," the cable went on. "King said Japan might not be included because it has little to offer. King noted though that including the Japanese might force their hand in finally marking to market impaired assets."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/13/wikileaks-mervyn-king-ban...
Those are all outliers (the new CNBC key word nowadays).
Goedenavond Nederlands
Ik heb een dokter nodig
Waarvoor?
Hier zit je gezellig tussen andere neurotische koekoeks die ook geen dokter nodig denken te hebben.
Weggesmeten geld, koop er zilver mee :)
My Belgiumeez is poor.
What did you say?
That all Americans are nice people :)
dank je wel mijn vriende, ik hep geen doctor nodig en ik ben niet neurotische. koop zilver? klopt. doe het ook in holland, wij zijn ook zilver aan te koopen hier in engeland en in het VS. Kapot maaken JPM!!!
Kaput machen JPM was enough for me to understand :-)
THAT'S GERMAN!!
NEVER!!!
EVER EVER!!
SAY THAT OUR BEAUTIFULL LANGUAGE (DUTCH)!!
SOUNDS LIKE THAT GERMAN DOGTALK!!
I HATE GERMAN! :)
you cloggies are half german anyway, embrace the faderland.
TYLER-- THIS IS FOR YOU!
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
M3 is back in action...
Calling all prospective central bankers :
Do you think you have what it takes to keep inflation under 2% while maintaining solid jobs growth and strong production ? Then click on the link below and have a stab at the official monetary policy game of the ECB ( I shit you not , this is for real ) .
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/economia/html/index.en.html
I kept the rate at 2.5% and just let the chips fall where they may. Average inflation rate through end of the game: -0.38%. They said I got no stars, but it looked like a winner to me!
Kept the average rate at 1.93% with a couple of stars initially . However , by 2018 I had caused a stock market crash and a raging inflation rate near the 5% mark . Have to have another go !
This game is completly inaccurate! There is no option to dial up looting or direct and secret handouts to favored classes and banks! How can one run central bank policy if corruption is not one of the levers available?
No, no, no, it's ski season, these are just ads for great slopes.
Don't worry be happy.
lol
had to repost this cause its never gets old, just more relevant..
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201005/r570104_3512541.asx
AAHHH!!!
BELGIUM!
3th PLACE!
SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST!
@sudden
Just finished a delicious Belgian cookie for breakfast. Here in Amerika they tell us we are all suffering from "austerity fatigue", and that we should go out and spend more money on stuff we really don't need. I bought the cookies on sale at BigLots -- thanks Belgium, your chocolate doesn't suck like the stuff they make here!
Yes!
AND REMEMBER MY FRIEND!
Those cookies where made here by Polish immigrants who make 1 euro a hour and a free daily whipping!
Everything that the governments can control suggests things are improving, everything that they can't suggests things are continuing to deteriorate....
This is such old news..this is last week....its all good now..they told me so...move on now...the sheeple have...oh and another thing..there is no inflation..
*CNTRL ALT DEL* on Best Buy debaucle, nevermind all that we got a retail shoppin season BLOWOUT on our hands!! OMFG pass the Xanax and jacked up eggnog...
Plan B (a modest proposal from the Euro chapter of the International Brotherhood of Bankers):
Create a "Bad Euro" and a "Good Euro":
Let's pool Spain, Portugal, Belgium into a "Bad Country", with national finances and taxes managed directly by the ECB with total bailout provisions.
Create a "Good Euro" Zone of countries that are then in a position to issue more debt.
Why don't we just get familiar with a new term that will be tossed around in 2011: Too Big To Save. lol We need loss recognition... clear the decks!
I love the wording of your post. LOL!!
Eurozone experiment nears it's end. It was a good run while it lasted. Sort of.
Here's whats happenin in England. I don't know whats worse, the actions of the feckin cops or the wingnut from the BBC doing the interviewing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXNJ3MZ-AUo&feature=player_embedded
Let the countries go into default and kill the banking cartel. Countries will survive and restart. It's not the people's obligation to suffer for decades to prop up the banking cartel and their generational hegemony.
As paper money heads towards its inevitable end is it time to revisit the Gold story?
The Three Phases of Every Secular Bull Market in Gold – By Gary Rosenthal
http://rosenthalcapital.com/blog/
Credit is contracting faster now.. phase is 2 on.! A Trillion dollars 2010 RE losses has to show up somewhere. In the end its all about the RE /CRE.
The Banks Globally took good faith deposits and loaned it on pure speculation.
"The Banks Globally took good faith deposits and loaned it on pure speculation."
Well said! How a blatant,criminal, act such as this can go on without anyone being held accountable is mind boggling.
The only thing better than the indepth analysis and exposure of our (fraudualent) markets on this site is the whit in which the information is delivered. thanks for the belly laughs, you got a way with words TD: in a class of your own, many thanks.
I think I'll just hang out here by the finish line. Hey look, Spain and Portugal are holding hands.
3 way race to the toilet. One will make it, other two crap their pants.
1,867 billion of euro it is our record debt on October and Italy is not still downgraded. We are a very lucky country.
Bennie: There can be only one!
Gold: But it will not be you!
Right!
But the european equity markets are at two year highs !!!
Global currency, backed by commodities, run by the usual suspects. Coming to a country near you. The euro, just on a bigger scale.
Don't they know to just buy the fucking dips?!?!?!?
That was a fun game! I kept inflation low but prevented bubbles, by never dropping my interest rate below 2.75% and never rising above 3.25%. I got starz too!
Move over Trichet :)