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European Silver Shortage Spreads To UK
On Friday we disclosed that major PM distributor, retailer and trading house BullionVault.com had run out of physical silver inventories in Germany (and possibly elsewhere) and was advising clients to seek the precious metal elsewhere. Today, we find that the UK joins Germany in what is now becoming the second round of the global silver shortage (the first one occuring in May 2010 when it was unclear just how the ECB would deal with insolvent PIIGS). Below is the warning by British BullionByPost notifying clients that the company currently has no silver bars in stock. Inventories are expected to be restocked later in February. In the meantime, as before, we urge customs agents to do a quick check of the cargo hold of all private jets (and time shares) registered to any banker making over $25 million. After all, surely the Tunisian president didn't come up with the idea to flee with 25% of Tunisia's gold entirely on his own.
Note: BullionVault did not at any time advise its
clients to seek silver elsewhere. Obviously only the most sarcastically-impaired would take this statement seriously. Carry on.
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Cargo Hold, Bitchez!
Looks like Max Keiser just got paid. xoxo
I'm a bit confused by this claim that BullionVault ran out of Silver in Germany - they only hold the stuff in London. Can anyone explain?
The original story appears to have come from a German-language Bullionvault page. Identical pages were also displayed in English, but that's where the confusion arose. Bullionvault only holds silver in London.
This is not the first time that BV have been unable to source wholesale silver in London - a similar "Price and Liquidity Warning" was displayed in the ticker on their "Markets" page on the previous weekend too.
When a billion-dollar LBMA member, with Rothschild-linked companies as shareholders, can't buy silver at any price in London - draw your own conclusions as to the tightness of the market.
Thanks, that clears it up :-)
This happens despite that goofy VAT tax on silver in Europe.
So much for silver ain't money.
Fortunately; the 20% VAT on silver only applies if you take delivery. Transactions inside a VAT-registered company are currently exempt.
"surely the Tunisian president didn't come up with the idea to flee with 25% of Tunisia's gold entirely on his own."
Are you insinuating that Goldman advised him on this matter?
Are you insinuating that all roads lead to The Goldman Sachs?
All the crooked ones evidently.
Nah , Mogul's back yard moguls are not just pretty things to ski over.
The elites call me every day to dig another hole for them.
Cripes, I'm running out of room out there.
I couldn't figure what the limo's were doing out in the field yesterday and the blackhawks buzzing around.
I thought buddy said it was from TUNIC - now I know what he said.
A sliver of silver soon to be worth more than a ton of fiat. That reality si coming, perhaps sooner than many can even conceive.
Gold is the name, silver is the game.
Count on it.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/10/18/an-opportunity-and-a-golden-w...
""Gold is the name, silver is the game.""
Sorry no..."Oceana versus Eurasia" is the Guaranteed next World War.
That is where the "billions and billions of people" are.
Oil will be the excuse for war, Gold and Silver will be sold for food in those regions.
New World Order friends...
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/01/next-world-war-great-game-and-threat-of.html
ADF, of course PM action will be an effect and not a cause.
Four More Reasons Speculators Should Sell Their Gold Now...
http://www.investmentu.com/2011/January/why-speculators-should-sell-their-gold-now.html
Just like I remarked on the other string you posted this link - it's a dumb article. The author (perhaps yourself?) has no idea why gold has value, and suggests that not only is Ben B not printing money, but could unwind his policies at any time. This article was a waste of time.
I just asked the author to rename his site from Investment University to Investment Kindergarten
Gold or silver - if you don't hold it, you don't own it!
One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Silver and Gold as a safe investment? The problem today is that the price of precious metals is not derived by it's physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.
The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.
The price of everything including Silver and Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
................ "The problem today is that the price of Gold is not derived by it's physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency. "......................
Bingo -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMRo5XCKddQ
Pull up the skirt and .................. Stanky' derivatives. A sea of paper and chum.
smelly:
do you think that is going to make them stop buying physical silver? How is this consistent with Jamie's explicit orders?
So the Spalding suggests we buy AIG?
unwind for what? a paper promise?
You are correct with identifying the fact that price discovery is dead. It's been dead for a long time. Basically, prices are influenced not by real supply and demand, but rather buy speculative supply and demand. For the longest time, prices were artificially being suppressed by the flood of paper equivalent flooding the market. So, take soybeans or rice. For every 2 tons of real soybeans or rice on the exchange, there was 98 tons of paper influencing the price down. Farmers were only able to get paid what the paper was trading at.
Now, every now and then, the guys at Wall Street would play the opposite trade and drive a price up using the HFT computers. Take oil for example. Even though there was a glut of supply out there, prices were being driven up to the crazy level of $147 a barrel, purely due to speculation.
The problem with doing that with resources that are fixed, is that you can't eat paper or use paper to run your car. So, when a real physical shortage kicks in, the game of selling future promises of grain or oil or silver sorta looses all meaning. The paper game only works as long as you can deliver needed product today.
Simply demographics prove that this game cannot last. Real production levels for food, gold, oil, have either peaked already (as per the peak-oil folks) or have reached a plateau. Increasing supply will require a huge investment, which may or may not be possible at even current price levels. Now, world populations are sill increasing, while resources are not. Worse, overall standards of living are going up in developing countries. So, demand is growing even beyond population increases. Some resources can wait for delivery. But, others cannot. You cannot feed people with promises to feed. Eventually, the leverage game of speculative paper breaks down. When it does: game over.
Well for one thing a business like ArcelorMittal buys up assets/mines and then idles the assets keeping a bid' ( thus no real shortage ) like rare earths, most really not that rare'.
Soros started purchasing land in Brazil many moons ago just for the food production/ aquifer - No real peak in food production coming - this heavyweight is not even " online yet ".
Got Cat ?
..... " The potential for expanding the agricultural frontier is vast. Brazil has one of the lowest planted-acres-to-total-area ratios of all major producers—with just 7% of total potential arable crop land in use, compared to around 18% in the US. Environmental pressures, high costs and poor logistics in frontier areas are among the factors constraining expansion. " ..............
............ " Warren Buffett's tie-up with sugar magnate Rubens Ometto Silveira Mello over alleged plans for a farmland buying spree in Brazil may avoid the US tycoon falling foul of a drive to keep out foreign investors. Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has put the brakes on a wave of foreign investment in the country's farmland, estimated by Brazil's central bank at $2.4bn between 2002 and 2008, by approving a rule that restricts the ownership by foreigners. " ............... ........... "AgraFNP, the Sao Paolo-based farm consultancy, has estimated the jump in farmland prices in frontier areas of the north east over the last three years at 54-70%. However, Mr Buffett's tie up with Mr Mello and oilseed magnate Blairo Maggi to buy up soybean and sugarcane farmland may allow him to sidestep Lula's restrictions, which are limited to foreign individuals, or companies owned more than 50% foreign-owned." .........
Anymore cut'n'paste garbage to plagerize?
" Anymore cut'n'paste garbage to plagerize? "
If assange can do it ....
Did you buy Nvida yet ? It's on fire ~~
'Brazil for Brazilians' However, the scale of investments, by buyers from hedge funds to state-baked Chinese companies, has prompted a local backlash. "Brazilian land must stay in the hands of Brazilians," Guilherme Cassel, Lula's agrarian development minister said.
You fail to point out the difficulties faced by farmers. The Brazilian rainforest is not farmland. The soil is very poor in nutrients and would require extensive investment to produce various crops- especially grains.
Land that is naturally grass, is usually the best land to develop for grains. Presently, the converted land is used for cattle or sugarcane. The sugarcane is used for ethanol. Cattle is nice, but a glut of cattle will just drop the price of meat. Worse, poor people cannot afford to keep or eat lots of meat. That is why they prefer grains.
Additionally, the fertilizers, herbacides and pesticides required by modern farming are very costly. As is the equipment. The environmental changes could be a problem as well. Then there is the seed technologies- especially terminator technology. In an area where farming may be marginal- inputs determine profits (as well as subsidies).
This is much more complex a problem then following the tycoons...
The land is much cheaper in Brazil as is the cost of labor. Tons of rainfall and the sun shines 95% w/ ideal weather. They are building/ have build railways for transportation.
With the prices we have seen over the last 6 years will cover the startup investment. But yes they are going to need tons of equipment.
This is not happening overnight but its coming. Many parts of South America are great for farming.
................. ( January 21, 2003 ) " During a recent trip through Brazil, USDA/FAS personnel met with numerous official agricultural research agencies and private sector agribusiness companies and consultants in an effort to learn more about the future of farming in the country. Collectively, the individuals and organizations represented the entire supply chain from research and production to consumption and exports. The key observation gleaned from this investigation is that the future of farming in Brazil has enormous potential, and that previous estimates of the scope for possible agricultural expansion have been grossly underestimated. There are in fact few natural limits to the future expansion of grain and oilseed production which cannot be overcome by astute planning, research, and adequate investment capital. It is conservatively estimated that Brazil could increase its total cultivated land area by 170 million hectares or more if key legal, technical, and financial developments occur. Specifically, this entails the eventual legalization of GMO’s in Brazil, widespread adoption of newly available high-yield crop varieties, and intensified investment in the development of transportation infrastructure. Each of these factors would act to significantly lower the already low cost of production of Brazilian crops and substantially increase the average farmer’s net return per hectare. In time, regions currently considered to be too remote for commercial farming owing to their distance to market would become viable, while alternative agricultural lands used for less profitable enterprises (i.e. pasture) could readily be converted to cropping. The existing scope for agricultural expansion in Brazil is equal to (if not greater than) the total cropland resource in the United States (NASS, 1997 Census of Agriculture), and this expansion is possible without any additional deforestation in the Amazon Basin. It is apparent that the underlying potential for growth in Brazil’s agricultural economy over the next century has been seriously underrated to date, given the nation’s wealth of available land resources and its highly professional and enterprising agribusiness community. " ................
.............. " To provide some perspective on Brazil’s land resource situation, it is helpful to compare it to the United States. Though both countries are nearly equal in size, the U.S. devotes far more land to agricultural production (both crops and pasture). The U.S. is estimated to have roughly 19 percent of its total land area under crops (174 MHa), and 22 percent under pasture (199 MHa). Brazil, by comparison, devotes 5 percent (41.8 MHa) of its land resource to crops and 21 percent (177 MHa) to pasture. In purely environmental terms, however, Brazil has the potential to have a far larger area under cultivated agricultural crops than the U.S. owing to its more favorable climate (warmer and wetter), relatively flat topography, and enormous supply of arable soils that are conducive to mechanized farming. The majority of Brazil’s existing pasture lands could readily support rain-fed crop production, whereas those in the U.S. cannot due to soil and/or climate limitations. In addition, portions of Brazil’s vast Amazon Basin could support both crop production and pasture for cattle if they were not strictly protected from deforestation by law. Brazilian forests occupy an estimated 53 percent (444 MHa) of total land area, whereas in the United States forests cover 33 percent (302 MHa). " ....................
........... " FAS agrees with this evaluation, and estimates that 70-90 million hectares of Brazil’s existing pasture acreage could be converted to cropping in the future. This represents about 40-50 percent of the nation’s total pasture. These lands could be converted owing to their advantageous proximity to existing crop production, their generally level topography, and favorable soil properties. In addition to this ample resource, Embrapa estimates that 65 million hectares of virgin Cerrado (savannah land) which is capable of supporting mechanized commercial grain and oilseed production remains undeveloped in 2002. There are also up to 10 million hectares of degraded pasture or deforested land that is available in the Amazonian states of Rondonia, Amazonas, Acre, Amapa, and Roraima. These lands are already being targeted by agricultural researchers for restoration, with the goal of developing viable grain and oilseed-based farming systems that are tailored to their unique conditions. Given these details, FAS conservatively estimates that between 145 and 170 million hectares of land is potentially available for future field crop expansion in Brazil. It is also conceivable that the cultivated area under soybeans could increase by 50-100 million hectares if supportive political, macro-economic, and agricultural policy conditions prevail over the next few decades. " ......................
http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2003/01/Ag_expansion/
The report is dated 2003. It is from the USDA, the propaganda arm of Monsanto and Cargill. If the land was so capable, why hasn't it been developed?
This is the crux of the issue and one all the internet will never reveal to you Spaulding- you have never farmed. You have no idea what land requires to produce a crop. Further, additional deforestation will decrease rain in the region and have major ramifications, possibly the desertification of the Amazon. The USDA assumes massive fertilizer inputs, because that is the only way they know how to farm. Any idea how much it would cost to develop the resources to create the fertilizer? Notice the GMO reference?
As the Union of Concerned Scientists have just finished a ten year study on GMO production versus standard seed production, your report would not have this- there is NO difference. So, why was this report written? I'd say to create new markets for Monsanto and Cargill. The same markets that they recommended in Africa- and which are now failing, the same markets as in India- where farmers are returning to standard practices.
If you were a farmer, you would understand this. If you questioned the efforts of the government, you would understand this. Remember, until 1939, the USDA were telling farmers there was no need for fertilizer on there farms as long as they properly husbanded their soils. Then the chemical lobby showed up and voila! They completely changed their tune- without a single independent report to back it up.
You might have additionally known, that Brazil is now attempting to protect large tracts of land within the Amazon as they are finding that the environmental costs are greater than the meager benefits.
A 2003 report is ancient history in the world of today.
So your saying Brazil will not become a farming powerhouse ? Soros , Buffett, Rogers are wrong or they are the dumb money ... ?
............ " You have no idea what land requires to produce a crop. Further, additional deforestation will decrease rain in the region and have major ramifications, possibly the desertification of the Amazon. " ..............
The Guaraní Aquifer, located beneath the surface of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, is one of the world's largest aquifer systems and is an important source of fresh water.[1] Named after the Guaraní tribe, it covers 1,200,000 km², with a volume of about 40,000 km³, a thickness of between 50 m and 800 m and a maximum depth of about 1,800 m. It is estimated to contain about 37,000 km³ of water (arguably the largest single body of groundwater in the world, although the overall volume of the constituent parts of the Great Artesian Basin is much larger), with a total recharge rate of about 166 km³/year from precipitation. It is said that this vast underground reservoir could supply fresh drinking water to the world for 200 years. Due to an expected shortage of fresh water on a global scale, which environmentalists suggest will become critical in under 20 years, this important natural resource is rapidly becoming politicized, and the control of the resource becomes ever more controversial.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guaraní_Aquifer
Soros and Buffet have the benefit and the restrictions of being part of the elites. Will the elites be attempting to secure and profit from the Brazilian resource opportunities? Absolutely. This does not address the difficulties of farming a sandy soil depleted of nutrients from thousands of years of huge rainfalls that flood the Amazon by 30 or more feet on a regular basis.
The Aquifer you speak of is at the other end of the country from the farms you speak of. Are they going to pipe in all the water? Are the other countries going to give up their share? I think not.
The aquifer is dependent on rainfall, which will diminish as the forest is destroyed. The land would sink and pollution would create large problems. We have huge aquifers in the US as well and some are so polluted as to be dangerous to consume.
You assume that mankind can manage environmental problems, but the history says it will fail and kill the residents through cancer and disease. They will destroy species needed for the food chain and the ability of plants to reproduce. The impact would be greater than you think.
There is tremendous difference between locating a commodity and bringing it to market. Ask any miner. It is even more difficult when the commodity must be produced through labor and inputs while hoping the weather will be benign.
The agricultural development of America took 200 years to get to where we are now. 70 of which, we had some form of mechanical advantage. We started with land that was ideal for farming. The Great Plains were a huge grassland fed with centuries of river overflows and sediment deposits.
Brazil has no such advantage. Mechanics will help, infrastructure can be built, but it will require tremendous investment. It will require capability and knowledge of techniques. It will require environmental challenges be defined and solved. It will require a willing people. We shall see.
The miracle of the cerrado
Brazil has revolutionised its own farms. Can it do the same for others?............ ( Aug 26th 2010 ) " IN A remote corner of Bahia state, in north-eastern Brazil, a vast new farm is springing out of the dry bush. Thirty years ago eucalyptus and pine were planted in this part of the cerrado (Brazil’s savannah). Native shrubs later reclaimed some of it. Now every field tells the story of a transformation. Some have been cut to a litter of tree stumps and scrub; on others, charcoal-makers have moved in to reduce the rootballs to fuel; next, other fields have been levelled and prepared with lime and fertiliser; and some have already been turned into white oceans of cotton. Next season this farm at Jatobá will plant and harvest cotton, soyabeans and maize on 24,000 hectares, 200 times the size of an average farm in Iowa. It will transform a poverty-stricken part of Brazil’s backlands.
Three hundred miles north, in the state of Piauí, the transformation is already complete. Three years ago the Cremaq farm was a failed experiment in growing cashews. Its barns were falling down and the scrub was reasserting its grip. Now the farm—which, like Jatobá, is owned by BrasilAgro, a company that buys and modernises neglected fields—uses radio transmitters to keep track of the weather; runs SAP software; employs 300 people under a gaúcho from southern Brazil; has 200km (124 miles) of new roads criss-crossing the fields; and, at harvest time, resounds to the thunder of lorries which, day and night, carry maize and soya to distant ports. That all this is happening in Piauí—the Timbuktu of Brazil, a remote, somewhat lawless area where the nearest health clinic is half a day’s journey away and most people live off state welfare payments—is nothing short of miraculous.
These two farms on the frontier of Brazilian farming are microcosms of a national change with global implications. In less than 30 years Brazil has turned itself from a food importer into one of the world’s great breadbaskets (see chart 1). It is the first country to have caught up with the traditional “big five” grain exporters (America, Canada, Australia, Argentina and the European Union). It is also the first tropical food-giant; the big five are all temperate producers. " .....................
.............. " The increase in Brazil’s farm production has been stunning. Between 1996 and 2006 the total value of the country’s crops rose from 23 billion reais ($23 billion) to 108 billion reais, or 365%. Brazil increased its beef exports tenfold in a decade, overtaking Australia as the world’s largest exporter. It has the world’s largest cattle herd after India’s. It is also the world’s largest exporter of poultry, sugar cane and ethanol (see chart 2). Since 1990 its soyabean output has risen from barely 15m tonnes to over 60m. Brazil accounts for about a third of world soyabean exports, second only to America. In 1994 Brazil’s soyabean exports were one-seventh of America’s; now they are six-sevenths. Moreover, Brazil supplies a quarter of the world’s soyabean trade on just 6% of the country’s arable land." .....................
http://www.economist.com/node/16886442
2 farms in an area that has already failed once previously. You cannot extrapolate that to a whole country. What are they growing? Corn and Soy. People cannot live on corn and soy. Heck, we have to heavily subsidize farmers here, just so they can make a profit. Meaning, we pay for this in our food prices.
Let me make this simple, commercial farming exhaust soils, requiring greater and greater inputs to produce. Where will the inputs come from? Brazil cannot afford to subsidize their farmers as the US does. There is no infrastructure of mills and grainaries. No transportation lines. Where does the investment come from in a marginal crop?
Most of the money made on corn and soy is from finished products, the ones you see in the store or behind the meat counter or in a fast food outlet- see any of this in Brazil?
Brazil has great potential, much greater than China- because it is resource rich. Still, you do not create a farm economy overnight.
No, it will not happen overnight but over time it will be a powerhouse...
Brazil Feeds the World - ( The Daily Reckoning )
07/16/10 San Antonio, Texas – Cheap labor and a good climate for crops have positioned Brazil to make gains in agriculture. This week we sent global strategist Jack Dzierwa (pictured here) south for a look at opportunities.
Brazil is currently #4 in the world in agriculture, and the sector is the largest component of the country’s $2 trillion economy. It employs more than 20 million people, or one out of every five workers in the nation.
An extended period of good weather this year has cultivated hopes that this will be Brazil’s best harvest ever, but that’s just the start. According to a recent FAO-OECD report, agriculture in Brazil is expected to grow 40 percent between 2010 and 2019. That’s the fastest rate in the world – far ahead of China (26 percent) and India (21 percent) and nearly four times greater than the U.S.
( Brazil is already the world’s largest producer of coffee, oranges and sugar cane. It’s the second-largest grower of soy, and third for corn. The country is also a major player in wheat, cocoa and beef.
Beef producers in Brazil have a cost advantage over the U.S. and other countries because their cattle feed on grass as opposed to corn. This is significant because estimates shows grass-fed beef costs half as much to produce as grain-fed beef. )
But Jack got a sense that beef isn’t the meat with the brightest future. ( That would be poultry because of cultural and dietary preferences globally. Poultry sales have increased 5 percent each year for the past two decades. )
The ag boom is also big for heavy equipment and service providers. Sales of tractors, combines and other heavy machinery (like the one pictured below) are up 60 percent from this time last year. However, this has been fueled by preferential tax treatment likely to end once the government changes hands in October.
New technology has increased crop yields in the Mato Grosso region, which Jack visited, by 33 percent over the past three years.
Infrastructure is also important for profitability. The breakeven point for soy producers varies by as much as 30 percent depending on their location. The government is putting in two new roads in Mato Grosso to make transportation less of a cost variable. The State of Mato Grosso is important because it harvests nearly 500,000 tons of cotton per year, representing more then half of the country’s total crop.
Major consumers like the U.S., China and Germany are already on board to receive Brazilian farm exports. Once the government addresses infrastructure issues, Brazil should be better positioned to become the breadbasket of the globalized world.
Read more: Brazil Feeds the World http://dailyreckoning.com/brazil-feeds-the-world/#ixzz1BJkuiAPa
I have no doubt Brazil will become a powerhouse, it has been projected to become a powerhouse since the 1960's. It has all the potential in the world. Yet, it has failed to develop that potential. In 50 years, it has become a member of the BRIC's- a second world nation and economy.
Why is that? Perhaps it requires more than resources to become a powerhouse? Perhaps it requires an educated and trained workforce? Perhaps it requires a manufacturing capability and design capability?
China has benefited from the transfer and theft of technologies, low wage rates and an increasingly educated population and export driven economy, yet it is now so polluted- its agriculture is failing and must be outsourced. It is the kind of toxic brew that devastates land for decades. They have empty cities and CRE. They have no middle class or internal markets and it is all starting to stall.
Is there a lesson here for Brazil? We shall see.
I have done a little research. They are set.
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil may hold the world’s third- largest potash reserves, following discoveries in the northern and eastern parts of the country, Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes said.
Large potash deposits were found in the Amazon region and in Bahia and Espirito Santo states, in eastern Brazil, Stephanes said today in Sao Paulo, citing data from state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA. The resources may help the country become self-sufficient in fertilizer within 10 years, Stephanes said, without saying how much each deposit may hold.
Brazil, which imports about 90 percent of its potash needs, is seeking new sources of fertilizer to fuel production of soybeans, sugar, ethanol, coffee and other agricultural commodities. The soil in Brazil, the world’s biggest grower of coffee, oranges and sugar cane, lacks nutrients and requires chemical additives. Potash is a generic name for several compounds containing potassium, used mostly as fertilizer.
“This is something new, not included in our country’s reserves,” said Luiz Alberto Melo de Oliveira, who oversees potassium resources for Brazil’s Department of Mining. “All of our known potassium reserves are in Sergipe state and the Amazon,” he said in an interview from Aracaju, Brazil.
Amazonian Deposit
The Amazonian deposit in northern Brazil contains an estimated 1 billion metric tons of potassium, said Helio Diniz, a geologist and manager of Falcon Metais Ltda. Only Canada, Russia and Belarus have larger reserves, Diniz said.
Potassium is one of three key elements used in fertilizers. The others are nitrogen and phosphates. Brazil aims to produce enough nitrogen to supply domestic needs within five years and enough potash to meet demand in 10 years, Stephanes said. It is also working to increase phosphate output, he said.
“The issue of fertilizer is strategic for Brazil,” he said. “The government is preparing a self-sufficiency plan.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=axWs4cd5GiqE
The soil "lacks nutrients and requires chemical additives". Now, do some research on agriculture and what is required to grow products. Chemical fertilizers leave soil depleted over time as plants require a full spectrum of minerals and microfauna to produce healthy plants. If you start with a good soil (US, Ukraine, Argentina, Australia) the soil will weather the effects. When the soil is deficient, the results are less predictable (Africa, India, China).
This also means they will be using petroleum additives for their fertilizers- no extra cost there, huh? If they are to meet needs in ten years, it probably means more- when was the last time a government made a real prediction stick?
Again, talk to a farmer, really. Even a commercial farmer- they know more than all the internet sites you can find.
Brazil's greatest achievement, IMO is the development of the Super Magro, but that was just one man's effort.
I wonder, have you ever grown anything?
Slightly off topic but relevant: Because of the astronomical corn prices today, some farmers have abandoned the traditional bean/corn rotation that helps to keep the soil condition up. Instead, they make up for the lack of nutrient with fertilizers. The way things are going, if the lights ever went out at the local Cenex and they couldn't get their fertilizer, it would take God only knows how long to get that soil built back to productive.
Course they can always sell the land for subdivisions. Oh, maybe not. Course they could build giant RV parks. Or maybe tent cities.
On my farm, it has taken about three years to get the soil back to a productive state. It will continue to improve, but the loss of organisms, natural predators, worms and the like take a long time. When I started, you couldn't find a bird anywhere. Now, they are all over the place.
The critters are coming back and the soil is no longer excreting weird slimes. Soil depth is building and my erosion has been brought under full control. I use green manures, not fertilizers. It takes three years of organic practices to get a farm registered.
More important, most of those farms are now so large, they are not capable of being farmed in any other manner. They cannot be profitable with the necessary labor it would entail. They need the big machines. They need the simple two commodity rotation.
Farmers are also starting to store their crops on site, rather than with the coops, so they can sell when they can maximize price. It was a big mistake two years ago when the coops stopped giving farmers set contracts.
There are a lot of changes happening in farming.
Thanks for the info -
Just might be America's last real source of wealth generation. I also keep Brazil in mind, there are some excellent opportunities. Especially when you consider Chile and Argentina. Good posts, Thanks.
sean,
you might like this site i just discovered today - apparently certain rock dust can be used to provide the minerals crops need without resorting to chemical fertilizers (also google 'salt water for fertilizer')...
http://soilminerals.com/AgricolaI.htm
You might like Acres Magazine. Great information on all aspects of small and large farming from an organic bent. Michael Kinsey writes monthly as well. Thanks for the citation, I'll check it out.
i was just checking it out yesterday - thanks! i think i'll subscribe.
you farm? if so, what? i want to but afraid of biting off too much (currently live in a large city). the new 'food safety" bill also has me worried....
Well said, particularly:
Some resources can wait for delivery. But, others cannot. You cannot feed people with promises to feed.
JWR from www.survivalblog.com has advised for people to get beans, bullets, and and bandaids secured first, then, and only then, can one turn attention to acquiring silver/
The same can be said of any 'investment' traded on an exchange, including equities. With basic commodities, underlying physical demand ultimately drives price direction -- although speculators can make a mess of short term pricing. The same is true for precious metals.
You fail to understand the purpose of speculators and arbitrage. You fail to consider the effect of leverage and what happens when it is exposed. The crash of 1929 was an exposure of leverage on the market.
Unwinding a position requires a buyer. What happens when there is no buyer? For worthless paper? The price falls. For a commodity now in short supply and high demand? The buyers multiply and the price skyrockets.
Your failure to understand the difference might just be your undoing.
Well said Sean7k, the dynamics of a transaction that nullifies an arbitrage should be the least any market participant needs to understand, viscerally.
ORI
RIGHT Sean thru all of this print n pump fiasco where now stocks can only levitate daily, thats fine until the bubble bursts and there are no buyers! In silver and gold the only ones hurt by leverage will be the ones holding the paper PM's with nothing to back it! Pay off in blown out currency sucks.
As the saying goes, gold is not in a bubble, it is paper money that is in a bubble.
People like to claim that gold will rise as the US dollar becomes worth less, but they forget that it’s zombie money that has been buying gold, and that has thus lifted gold prices. Once daylight comes and the zombies are gone, there's only one way left to go for gold prices too.
From Automatic Earth:http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/
Newsflash: Gold does well during inflation OR deflation.
Don't know much about gold, do ya?
Thank you for that eloquent piece devoid of logic and common sense. "Zombie money" of all forms have been buying gold which is why it is making news highs in every currency. The only zombies I know of are the banks who managed to con the FASB into changing accounting rules. Funny how those rules are only changed to benefit and never harm monied interests.
It doesn't matter if you've used zombie money or "real" money to buy your PMs. If and when the dollar hyperinflates, do you think gold and silver will be worth more or less, in dollar terms? This is the question you should ask yourself.
Why buy gold and silver? Simple, the physical price can, is, and will continue to decouple from the fake exchange price. I mean jeez, look at APMEX. Generic rounds are still selling there for more than $30. Brand name stuff is going for $31 or 32.
Have no doubt, the spot price will drop, likely to zero as the exchanges start going "bankrupt", and the rules are changed to allow them to continue operating as a paper only exchanges. They can then claim victory over inflation even as the street price for the metals skyrockets. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like this start in the PM markets, and spread like cancer to the others, as they see the benefits of being able to claim that there is no inflation, even as prices of real goods explode.
I agree. It's painfully obvious it takes serious manipulation to keep the PM prices low when there are shortages in the marketplace. I have to wonder if it is being done to let big purchasers by at low cost before the shit hits the fan.
Keep buying. Don't let China and India get most of it.
Don't take it personal, but please stop writing any time in bold and linking any time to the same site..
But the main problem is, your posts seems logically incorrect:
...speculative positions standing long or short...
...price of everything ... is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions...
Are you working in fear-mongering business?
What is your fee for any scheeply redirected to some TBTF bank found or unallocated gold account ?
Are you a human at all ?
'Fear mongering'? If youre not scared by whats going on all over the world, then youre a fool!
"Don't take it personal, but please stop writing any time in bold and linking any time to the same site.."
Thank you, for I don't take it personally.
ref. comment: #881776
Quit posting this statement please. I got it the first time on another thread. I'm not going to unwind. I am stocking up on the only thing with value. You can push around your wheelbarrow of ass wipe and see who takes it.
At some point, the physical and paper price will seperate. This is already happening on eBay. I will be looking for the highest bidder!
Clearly you fail to understand that silver does have actual use(s) in multiple industries.
You do know that...
Don't you?
This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.
In my opinion anyone here who owns paper silver or gold owns nothing but paper. If you don't own the physical you don't own the metal. Stay away from ETF's and especially offshore vehicles such as GoldMoney which while I'm sure they hold the metal they are still an internet company and you have to have an account in order to buy and sell or whatever they do. Do Americans really want to have an offshore account (Canada is also considered to be a foreign account) and risk not declaring it to Homeland Security every June 30th or risk heavy fines, confiscation of the account or jail? Don't believe this?
Read this and you'll see why you don't want paper representations of precious metals.
http://ezinearticles.com/?FBAR---Form-TDF-90-22.1----Report-Of-Foreign-B...
Seemingly strong demand for Silver everywhere and yet the price continues to fall.
the paper price is falling yes.... don't be concerned with such manipulation, buy and hold the physical. This market is defunct of supply and demand. Let them print more money and short more silver in paper...
In time silver will see an exponential move upward.
Yup. Curious juxtaposition.
Nothing to see here, bitchez
Funny that silver in euros is at a 3 month LOW, need to buy more ASAP
Agreed. BTF(Ag)D.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJDLZRv1otE&feature=autoplay&list=FLjAWptc6azYo&index=4&playnext=3
I would also like to note that ScotiaMocatta has just sold out their 1oz bars after being relisted 2 weeks ago. All that is left are 1Kg bars made from Valcambi in Switzerland. This leads me to believe that The Sunshine Mint was not filling Scotia's orders and may be short on silver as well. Valcambi 1Kg bars will be sold out in T-minus....
London merchant Baird & co. out of Silver Britannias until mid Feb.
http://www.goldline.co.uk/investmentBarsPage.page
Next, the MSM will *not* mention the wave of counterfeit bars that will show up.
get short paper / stocks in banks... get long metals... Oops, wait until the officail investigation begins in the US then get short..
get short metals?
can you read? and if so in what fucking language?
nice avatar, you Are the same guy who bashed gold constatantly, aren't you?
Get with the program and start shooting some clear anti gold garbage, here, this obsfucating stuff is not going to scare anybody
WTF? Your avatar is highjacked and upside down. Now if that was something to do with 69 then proceed good sir
"....registered to any banker making over $25 million..."
there isn't enough time and not enough people to check that many banksters...
At last, we are approaching the endgame of metals manipulation. There are so many signs of shortage to those prepared to see, that it's unmistakable. The silver market is becoming like a Soviet era Moscow grocery store. Prices are low, but the shelves are empty despite regular official declarations of 'Record production' and 'Plentiful Supply'.
The only question in my mind is how, exactly, JPM and their cartel buddies are going to rearrange the rules to get themselves off the hook when the inevitable happens.
I feel sure that even though the manipulation will be broken and the metals will be free to find their proper (much higher) price level, those responsible for decades of illegal profiteering in the metals market will not suffer a jot. In all probability we will find out that they are actually in possession of vaults stuffed with metal that they've accumulated at the artificially low prices they themselves engineered. Their clients, on the other hand, will be left with worthless GLD and SLV certificates which, in years to come, may acquire some value as curiosities that people will sell on ebay similar to those quadrillion zimbabwe dollar notes.
Finally, in a much delayed and poorly attended final act, long after the cartel is broken, the CFTC will ride in to 'Save the day' with some half-assed rule or other which will, by then, be as utterly irrelevant to the markets as the CFTC themselves are today.
"worthless GLD and SLV certificates which, in years to come, may acquire some value as curiosities that people will sell on ebay similar to" ....soviet memorabia ...in all fairness those soviet style grocery stores (empty shelves - artificially low prices) continued for many, many years...i dont see why this cant go on for at least a long awhile...
Read the fine print. In certain circumstances cash settlement is allowed backed by full faith and credit of jpm. It is a difficult read but that is essentially what it says.
Indeed. In a best case scenario, if/when Comex formally gives up all pretense of being a metals exchange as opposed to a paper exchange, holds of paper contracts will receive cash for the value of the contracts immediately before the default is announced and metals go parabolic.
In a worst case scenario, the bullion banks will let the price of a Comex contract fall to its true value (probably damn near zero in the chaos and confusion that will be reigning by that point) then set the value that paper longs will receive.
Quintus, I think you more or less nailed it with your post. For those for whom Quintus's post is not clear, let me rephrase and summarize.
Regardless of what happens now or in the future, the corrupt federal reserve and banking cartel rewrite the rules to benefit the elite at the expense of the public. Markets are not "markets", they are simply rigged casinos designed to pilfer the weatlh of the population. While the casion may give the masses the impression that the markets are free by allowing small gains from time to time, in the end, they will always change the rules, collapse a market, or do whatever it takes to suck up all monetary value, however that may be measured.
Best advice-----there is none. The corrupt federal reserve and banking oligarch own you, get used to it because there is nothing you can do about it. If it makes you feel better to "think" buying precious metals frees you from the corrupt cartel, great, sleep easy, but "extending and pretending" is just that----it changes nothing. In the end, when the U.S. allowed the cartel to seize the banking system with the Federal Reserve act of 1913, the game was over.
You seem ignorant of the concepts of revolution and black markets. You are assuming they have won. We shall see...
Bingo, CraigsList is more important than SLV for millinois of people.
+barter
Don't be so gloomy WSP. The cartel will destroy itself as the currency implodes. These are unpredictable and uncontrollable events.
The solution is:
Fine. All the rest of it doesn't matter anyhow.
1+++++ tell it like it is mate.
Let's not be hasty.
Too many deposed dictators selling their stash will lower prices.
Correction- Too many deposed dictators will be stashing and buying at lower prices.
probably technical correction.
head and shoulders top will send down to 27.50ish, no lower than 27.
before resuming the fireworks.
you know the drill, baby, drill. buy more.
Or in other words:
BUY THE EFFIN' DIP!!
iAPPL ?
none of this really matters.
Those who need real silver will have to buy it from miners at whatever negotiated prices are. Nobody else will get any. The paper futures market will just move paper around. And everyone will pretend
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It's out of character for you to be agreeing with folks.
Stick to what you do best!
(Didn't junk ya.)
Nothing like a good artificial shortage scare in attempt to prop up the price....
Prop up the price? I think you need to reference a current Silver chart..
Would that chart be one for tons or tonnes?
Well, I can guarantee that they have "pretended" a shortage since early December, as I've posted updates from this website continuously since back then. For a period of time, they were even seriously short silver coins (mid December).
Go mine some fucking silver, conquistadora!
I don't have that much cash but I do want more silver. Think I will trade 1/2 my palladium store for some today.
Negative Sum Question:
Ask yourselves, how long until Carlos Slim says, "Fuck it, I want in!" and buys up a million ounces off the COMEX? Oh wait, he did that on the 7th? Well, so then how much silver does COMEX have, left? How much is the House of John Pierpont Morgan short? How many vaults are empty? What is inside Fort Knox? How much gold has the Federal Reserve Bank leased? What else happened on September 11th, '01 (hint, it concerns gold)? I find it funny that people are very concerned about certain conspirecies (Al Gore is an alien, didn't you know!?) but do not look right under their noses as to why any disinfo is spread...everything happening, from AZ to Tunisa, has to do with the Black and yellow....
I understand the concern for the conspiracy theories. If Obama is not a US citizen then he would not be President. Imagine the ramifications there. If Scull and Bones has a notebook with a list and checkmarks next to them then maybe we should be concerned that the world's most privileged families go to a frat that has static power over world politics, has for centuries.
The thing is none of the trivialities matter at the end of the day. They make nice conversation pieces, sure, but there is only one question; why all the weird behavior from the "elites"? What if they knew they had a limited time to do whatever they felt they needed to do, and had an end time frame? What if they like many people knew that oil was finite? 1859 to......?
Was it ironic that the price of oil spiked right when oil hit its then peak during the summer of '08? Or did the "elites" spike it to crash it? Right before any trade crashes, it spikes, how ever volatile. The price was spiked to 1) take as much monie from America as possible right before the epic and planned demolition of the global economy 2) create a range for the algos to trade on the way back up. This leads us to today. We are in familiar territory, with little time left. What level do pensions need the Dow to number for them to stay sustainable? What could the dollar vs. oil be post peak production? How would people mine gold then, too?
It will be hard to do anything post peak production, let alone find the rarest minerals in the world. Is anyone ready for it? Some people think they are, but as we know, wealth is hard to transfer. There are only a handful of families across the world that have managed to hold on to their fortunes.
What is monie again? What is wealth? What lasts forever? How many diamonds does Da Beers hold locked up to keep supply low? What is Hubbert's peak? How can we mine gold after peak oil?
Back when Sur America was first captured, it would take 30 Natives under "supervision" (call it what you want, many chose to leave with the Spanish 'adventurers') one month to accumulate...you ready.....
1 ounce of gold. It would take a whole search party one month to find one ounce of gold. And that is on a good month! Many search parties came back with nothing or did not come back at all. But they searched. The first thing the conquistadoras did when they found land was head straight into the jungle. They got off their boats and did not even look left or right before descending into the wiliest jungle on earth. Brave or stupid, the men were on a mission. So does anyone question that todays business men are any different?
"We are fleeing the country. I need you to go to this address and get the country's gold out of the vault. They will have it ready. Just tell them this code...."
What is horsepower? What is an IOU? How much bullion is in the world?
and your point is??
Here let me keep this simple. None of that shit matters. Buy physical. If they run the price down, buy more. Gold in grams, silver in ounces. Obamacare 600 dollar reporting requirements start in 2012. Bet on QE3.
When the asswipe they call the dollar is rendered useless- you will have something to barter with.
First of all, it is not QE3, it is like QE5 or something. You forgot TARP and Stimulous, and now that I think about it, you forgot QE Light. Also, you are not yourself keeping it simple as the Obama Care required limit is exactly what I am telling people to see past. Thank you for pointing out how dumbb it is to listen to the call of their whistle. Cover your ears from the siren. Lastly, keeping it simple should be done with yourself, in private.
Carlos Slim is massively short silver.
http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2010/10/15/update-1-tycoon-slim-hedges-some-new-gold-copper-output/
Carlos drilled some holes in the ground, called them mines, and hedged their output just before the silver supply shock. Carlos will die penniless just like Warren Buffet. Both are just connected hacks who don't want the game to change.
Someone should tell him hedging forward is so 1990's. Well, somone is buying COMEX....
Carlos sure needs to do some buying if those mines don't pan out. That may be why he is rumored to be looking for a real mine with actual output.
I wonder what the cataclysmic event released to the media at the same time as the declared shortage of precious metals will be revealed (although this might be declared as a "suspension of delivery until further notice").
All my friends are jelious of Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner
At least your friends know who Ben and Tim are.
HAHA! I HAVE NONE WHO KNOW THEM! :) For them everything that comes from America isn't important.
They only know Obama :)
2/3 don't even know the names of who's in parlement and about 4/5 don't know all our royals by name here in Belgium.
'Jelious' why? I bet when they see Bernanke and Geithner swinging from piano wire theyll be less jelious.
The Sprott silver fund is now trading at a premium of 15.81% to NAV.
Shanghai gold premium over spot is now at $23.00 per ounce.
The U.S. Mint reports 3,407,000 silver eagles sales for the month of January thus far.
We are now seeing a massive disconnect between the physical market and the paper gold and silver bourses.
These are the facts that people like Robo and Spalding ignore when they make their ridiculous comments on these threads.
Yes, unwind all right. You mean the years of naked shorting and suppression?
Epic paper fail. COMEX and LBMA may literally burn to the ground as the shortages become more widespread.
And Sprott managed to acquire his Silver at a $26.00 oz cost basis.
I am telling ya the intermediate top is in. if berskanke has any control left then we are headed for a deflation scare soon. expect silver to retrace to about 24 with an all out effort. they dont call me topcalling troll for nothing.
You don't get it. Those paper prices DON'T MATTER. Silver is going fast troll, do you have some yet?
just buy it...avg down..
Paper silver can be shorted in unlimited quantities.
No doubt, Blythe can simply order a few more dozen pallets out of Ft. Knox.
Note: Ft. Knox has no gold or silver, it is now loaded with pallets of "short silver at market" COMEX order tickets, or the gold equivalent.
She can simply fire away and drive the paper price down to any level the Fed desires.
The small guy holding physical will be unfazed.
However, there are thousands of overleveraged hedge funds that could dump their physical holdings in order to meet AAPL margin calls.
So be careful out there. Could be a huge whoosh down just like 2008.
I am glad you only use one avatar.
You mean the mega helium bubble is looking quite unstable? Oh no...
Providing that those hedge funds have any physical. The nature of leverage speculators is to trust in their ability to stay ahead of the game. This would lead me to believe that the hedge funds have paper. If Sprott takes 21/2 months filling an order, then hedge funds attempting to cash in paper will be cashed out- not taking delivery to dump on the market.
RT.
Could be a huge whoosh down just like 2008.
Yep, and the smart folks that held the line, rode that Whoosh straight back up.
Bitchin eh?.
There is a big difference between now and `08 but someone like you wouldn't need to be told that right?
The thing about robots is they don't have a brain, they are only good at repeating mindless tasks...like spouting drivel endlessly.
Precisely. I believe the next whoosh up will be much larger than the 2008 whoosh up. Not margined and prepared to ride that roller coaster again, just as I did in 08. This time though, the gains are going to be much, much larger...
See Robot, Junk Robot, Never ever read Robot.
All these shortages and yet Tulving is selling bags of junk silver for fifteen cents under spot. Someone should tell them about the shortage
I remember Tulving (and everyone else) was out of metal when the price went from $20 to $9 a couple of years ago. Nobody had anything to sell. One coin dealer I talked to shut his shop down after that fiasco. He said "This is complete bullshit, I am swamped with orders and can't get anything in. Why is the price going down?"
Indeed. BTFD while you can.
Ya the price was 9 but nobody and I mean NOBODY bought a damn ounce of it till it hit 10. 9 should be erased from history books.
the premiums on silver eagles went to $5.50.
Too expensive to melt those coins down and separate the silver from the nickle. Wait until $200/oz silver.
He-he
Junk silver is usually 90% or less and is not investment grade. This still includes a healthy profit (10% or greater). As a large broker, Tulving has access most dealers do not. Apmex has silver as well, though they are light on monster boxes.
The point is, supply has a tendency to dry up at the outside and then move towards the center.
The spatial difference between Europe, the UK, and the United States is not trivial. Nor are the sociological differences.
All these shortages and yet Tulving is selling bags of junk silver for fifteen cents under spot. Someone should tell them about the shortage
Large supplies are gone. Try getting 100 million ounces. You can't. Ok 10 million ounces. Maybe, but you'll wait MONTHS. Of course there's a shortage.
The small stuff (holed, damaged, bent, beat up crap and UNDERWEIGHT from circulation) is still around. Of course it's discounted.
What the hell do folks think is in those bags? Numismatic rarities?
Sheesh.
That my own broker is out of silver and can't get any is testament to broken markets. Perhaps Blythe knew this was going to happen-that silver was not subject to the laws of supply and demand.
Remember, the Obamacare reporting rules for exchanges of 600 or greater occur next year. Buy all of your gold in small gram sizes and silver in one and five ounce sizes.
Ok I lied, I had to read at least one of your simple yet brilliant comments. You are worried about Obama care reporting requirements?
Bahahahahaha! And you tell me to keep it simple?
Bahahahaha!!!!!!!
I am too much of a simpleton to understand your snark. Do whatever you'd like smart guy.
Obviously we got off on the wrong foot. Calm down big guy. Do not worry about reporting requirements, relax, and hit this shit.......
Isn't the reporting aspect a valid concern, if one doesn't plan to pay taxes when they sell?
While I always pay my taxes, I understand and sympathize with those that don't. ;-)
In our world of the "ever changing rules" and where ignoring the rule of law is possible when convenient- all you can do is look ahead and see what the future will look like. That is all I can do. I've been buying in small amounts thinking that the spineless Repubs will not ull the plug on Obamacare. Who the fuck knows what they will do next. I simply cannot ignore that our government wants to tax every possible revenue source...and if you want to operate a business you will probably try to comply.
I don't know what the future will bring. It certainly has brought no shortages of smart asses.
If we get to the point that it matters and there is not violent revolution I have already left the country. So much can happen before they force coin shops and the like to report the sales that I do not think it matters.