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The European "Subprime" Contagion Arrives: Portuguese, Belgian And Spanish Bank CDS Rout

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Forget Greece: the European "subprime" contagion is spreading. The biggest daily movers in CDS land are now not some irrelevant Greek banks which the world has now given up on, but Portuguese Caixa Geral de Depositos, S.A. (+32 bps, 12%), Belgian Fortis NV (+8 bps, 11%) and Spanish Banco de Sabadell SA (+20 bps, 8%) and Banco Pastor SA (+23 bps, 7%). But. But. GDP is only 2% of GDP? (more like -5% when EuroStat is done with them). But it's all good - the IMF's Strauss-Kahn, who is always on top of stuff, sees no threat of contagion. Buy the pre-bankruptcy dips. Or is that DIPs?

 

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Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:05 | 314297 Genzero
Genzero's picture

Not to worry, it's all contained.

hmmm...where have I heard that before?

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:05 | 314667 BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

yeah, it's all contained, in a wet paper bag.  Or perhaps it's all contained in Warren Buffet's Depends!

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:09 | 314303 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We seem to be caught in a never ending showing of the "Night of The Living Dead", complete with zombies, vampires and the undead. Now I understand why the dealer suggested I purchase silver bullets with my SIG 226.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Living_Dead

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sig_226

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:28 | 314328 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

"uh, they're dead--they're all messed up..." LOL

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:34 | 314337 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Fired a CZ 52 the other day and it is a very nice hg. They are only $100 to $150 bucks, very affordable. uses 7.62 x 25mm cartridges

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:45 | 314355 Franken Stein
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I'll stick with my HK 45 thank you very much.

German engineering at it's finest.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:19 | 314400 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I brought  up the cz because of its affordability. Many unemployed folks on zh.

 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:33 | 314418 Cognitive Dissonance
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I wasn't aware of the CZ until you mentioned it. There are a few reviews on the web that speak reasonably well of it considering the price. In fact, I find it a remarkable value and will purchase one myself to add to my collection as a sort of low worry piece.

I own numerous pieces from multiple manufactures, including three SIG's. The SIG 226 I own is the 226 Elite Stainless and while it's a wonderful weapon, it was expensive and it's not something I would throw around in the dirt or mishandle while messing around like I would an older Glock.

The high cost of the SIG 226 Elite Stainless reduces it's utility to some extent because I don't wish to damage it. The CZ appears to solve that problem in the same manner my Glocks do, though even the Glocks are getting expensive.

http://www.sigsauer.com/Products/ShowCatalogProductDetails.aspx?categoryid=7&productid=169

Thank You Hulk

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:32 | 314443 RobD
RobD's picture

I have a number of friends in law enforcement that carry SIG's and they have nothing but good things to say about them. Never owned a SIG but I have a number of Glocks from 9mm through 10mm. I reload .40s&w and 10mm(they use the same bullet which is convenient). What is nice about the 10mm Glocks is that with just swapping out the barrel($115 or so) you can also fire .40s&w and .357sig.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:12 | 314494 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I started with the Springfield M1A (highly recommended) and also own and highly recommend the Rock River Arms LAR-8 A4. We leg holster hg's as backup and therefore hg's aren't my forte.

With that said, the CZ was a very comfortable weapon to fire, as opposed to my S&W ported 45, accurate and I am told by its owner is a very reliable weapon.Let me know your thoughts on the CZ after using...

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:46 | 314601 RobD
RobD's picture

I would love to get a M1A but they are out of my price range and I'm pretty much limited as far as black rifles go as my retreat is in California(inherited site so I'm kind of stuck with it). The M1A is about the only thing simi auto that is legal in Ca in .308 but like I said it is currently out of my price range. Instead I have purchased two Kel-tec SU-16CA .223 carbines that along with the SKS I have will make up my family's battle rifles. The Kel-tec is a neat little carbine that uses the AR-16 bolt face/lockup and the AK's gas operating system, kind of the best of both worlds. It also uses AR mags so you don't have to buy some proprietary magazine like for the Ruger Mini-14 which is the other option in Ca for a .223 carbine. As for something with more punch down range I'm sticking with my .270 bolt action.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:46 | 314775 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

If you want affordable, long range accuracy, may I reccomend the Mosin Nagant, i got one for 75 w/ bayonet.  Fires 7.62x54, largest shell ever deployed as a regular infantry firearm.  Makes a big bang and impressive fireball.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosin%E2%80%93Nagant

For up close, shotties and high capacity mag eastern block rifles are good on the cheap.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:26 | 314408 RobD
RobD's picture

Nice, and the ammo looks cheap! About half the price of 9mm but unless you reload them I would stock up while you can.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:41 | 314434 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Don't forget the ever trusty AK-47.  A fine compliment to any handgun - Cheap, indestructible, and ammo is peanuts. Great "truck gun".

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 12:47 | 314780 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

I have the Chinese variant. Mak-90.  Plenty of 30 round banana clips and 75 round drums.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:44 | 314438 ZakuKommander
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Have you tried a PLR-16? 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:09 | 314479 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like a hybrid. Some interesting video on YouTube. Nearly everything I want in my S&W AR-15, including the rounds, but more compact.

http://www.kel-tec-cnc.com/plr16.htm

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:15 | 314498 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Police chief friend started outfitting his force's cars with them.  Easy to maneuver in a stop-the-car-uh-oh-heavily-armed-druggies situation.  Better than a handgun or shotgun, but there's a tad bit of recoil, as you might expect.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:12 | 314307 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If those other PIIGS country bonds start catching fire....

My prediction is that JWN, MAR, COH, HD, LOW, etc. will be up another $3 - $5

 

Check out COF, they are already buying that one today.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:15 | 314311 RobotTrader
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Looks like they are already fleeing gold today and piling into the safety and security of AIG

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:41 | 314347 Internet Tough Guy
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Fleeing gold? It's down less than half a percent. Stop hyperventilating.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:17 | 314316 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

DECK up another $7.

An acute shortage of UGG boots?

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:17 | 314317 Kina
Kina's picture

I suspect even Ceiling-Cat couldn't fix this coming mess.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:39 | 314432 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

About time lolcats got some play on ZH.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:20 | 314321 yabs
yabs's picture

I guess as sick as it is NOONE will default

thats the not the plan

The plan is to get EVERYONE on an IMF loan.

I guess the smart money knows this

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:59 | 314643 SlowLoris
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"The plan is to get EVERYONE on an IMF loan"

Why do you think so?

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:29 | 314332 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Bernanke sez:

No sweat - We will provide ZIRP to the planet.

In fact, ZIRP has done so much to ramp our equity market that phase 2 may very well be NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:46 | 314357 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

This has to be the greatest plan ever!  Its so simple - what do people need to buy stuff? Money!  What's peoples' biggest problem everywhere? Not enough money!  How do we fix that?  Print more money and give it to them! 

Why didn't somebody think of this 230 years ago?  This is going to be awesome...

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:36 | 314341 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Rally?

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:46 | 314354 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Naaaah. Those pesky durable goods orders ("Look Ma! No Recovery!") tanked. Look out below!

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:47 | 314358 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Somehow this will construed to be bullish in some way.  Close in the green, and up again on Monday.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:10 | 314389 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Its ok Ned CNBC told me it was a huge gain if we ignore aircraft sales. Also please be sure to ignore the lack of food by choosing not to be hungry..It helps I promise.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:23 | 314405 Sisyphus
Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:49 | 314445 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This is the magic of spin. Exclude what doesn't support the current meme and I can make shit smell like rose petals. As long as the majority wish to believe, they will accept irrational thought because it supports what they wish to believe. The ultimate in positive feedback loops.

We must always remember that the true believers are addicted to the chemical releases of the brain, which occurs when they hear, read or see information that confirms their preconceived notions. These psychotropic chemicals are a hundred times more powerful than anything man made and there's no problems procuring them because they are manufactured on site and are instantly mainlined into the blood stream.

The ultimate junky.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychoactive_drug

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 20:14 | 315683 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Well said. And as you and I know, the brain of the junkee (let's say credit card in this case) goes ballistic with "feel good" chemicals when that card is swiped in return for some  shiny crap or something to wear!

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:47 | 314359 Kina
Kina's picture

Must push down gold. But it seems reluctant to stay down.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 09:49 | 314364 Kina
Kina's picture

You would think even the dumbest money would begin to see the EU is ferked for this year and maybe a good idea to take profits, while they still exist.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:58 | 314368 SlowLoris
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[deleted]

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:05 | 314381 John McCloy
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  When historians reflect back on this moment in market history they will laugh at how a rally could be predicated on hopium after banks have been diluted, losses still not taken, favorable accounting rules with so many not so dormant time bombs such as rates with nowhere to to go but up, prolonged unemployment, prolonged unemployment benefit extensions, frivolous government spending and tax credits on homes that are still clearly too expensive, small business contraction within an economy without manufacturing jobs that are not returning to America anytime in the near future. 

   When you toss in the angry populism and refusal of the politicians to acknowledge how detrimental these banks are to our society and their actions which are the definition of monopolistic I believe insanity will be how they best categorize this foolishness. You cannot have that kind of unprecedented wealth destruction globally and expect the wonders of unrealized paper gains to do anything but provide artificial false buoyancy.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:22 | 314403 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Historians? How about most of us here in the real & now? I think the real focus of many examinations will be the reasons why the government is/was the primary instigator, and that indeed, has become a criminal enterprise in its own right.

Tyler/Dan and a lot of the ZH crew tend to focus on banks and their perceived control of 'our' representatives. That is, they seem to believe that 'our' reps are so corrupt that they will do whatever their true masters tell them.

But I think it goes deeper than that; in fact, I think 'our' representatives actually like the nominal feeling of being in control. And this has deeper implications than just corruption and vote buying. It suggests that 'our' government has progressed to the point where it no longer believes in its traditional role subject to certain restraints, but is now the one & only source power.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:03 | 314469 John McCloy
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McCarthy should have been on the look out for the Plutocrats but being as chummy as he was with the Kennedys that would not have bneen likely.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 10:49 | 314444 Franken Stein
Franken Stein's picture

Remeber, the winner writes history. And this battle is far from over.

I do agree that the insanity is extensive though.

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 11:26 | 314536 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

 

William K. Black testifies to complicit wolverines.

http://fdlaction.firedoglake.com/2010/04/20/transcript-video-bill-black-...

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."
--Joseph Goebbels

 

 

Fri, 04/23/2010 - 18:28 | 315508 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I knew that the other PIIGS where just hiding behind Greece and know that Greece asked for this IMF/European whatever (I still say it won't work, might as well let it go bankrupt), the others will need assistance also.

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