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Even Goldman Admits Its Spin On The PMI Collapse Makes No Sense

Tyler Durden's picture




 

You have to feel bad for Wall Street's eCONomists: suddenly their 2011 record bonus is in the hands of some very angry German taxpayers. But they sure provide for some good humor. Here is Goldman with spin du jour #2, which even it admits makes no sense:

The Chicago purchasing managers' index fell to 56.6 in May from 67.6 previously. The 11-point drop was the fourth largest in the index's history (which begins in 1967). All of the sub-components of the index except for inventories declined during the month. Drops in the production and new orders components were especially steep. While all the components remain consistent with growth in the region's manufacturing sector, the sharp reversal indicates a substantially slowing in activity-similar to the message from the other regional manufacturing surveys. Our simulations suggest that supply chain problems in the auto sector resulting from the events in Japan should have their largest effect on the Chicago index. We therefore think a portion of the decline reflects this temporary shock. That being said, the rise in the inventory component looks somewhat at odds with this explanation. We are holding our forecasts for the national ISM at 56.5 (Consensus: 57.6).

And we are holding our forecast for QE3 to be well underway by the end of 2011.

 

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Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:36 | 1325245 GoatETF
GoatETF's picture

Bill Oh Reallllyyy would be so proud, we're on the verge of a No Spin Zone.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1325263 Dolemite
Dolemite's picture


Top in place after today?

Oil, equities, and eur/usd looking like it

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:54 | 1325326 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

It's an excuse, not an 'explanation'...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:36 | 1325246 Rainman
Rainman's picture

What to do when all the channels get stuffed, Mr. Squid ??

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1325255 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

We call in the Army corps of engineers.

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:54 | 1325314 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

This can't be, Barry said we're on the path of recovery and look, McDonald's just hired 70,000 people. (!)

House of cards baby, bitchezz

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:31 | 1325474 sabra1
sabra1's picture

where do you think they get their meat from? did anyone see hank lately?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:05 | 1325369 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

punt

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1325248 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Does anybody know why Rhodium is up 8.69 % today ?

Everybody pile into Rhodium, follow me, pussies !

Apmex sells it by the flask.

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:57 | 1325333 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Isn't it an anti-diarrheal?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:15 | 1325406 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Rhodium popped on news of increasing industrial demand.  BMW was the one who reported increase use for rhodium this morning

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1325252 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Lol.  Economic data is probably improving, then again all the data has been shitty, so we might be wrong but maybe we're right after all. 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:03 | 1325358 aheady
aheady's picture

lmao

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:19 | 1325434 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

things are "somewhat at odds" with other things

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1325253 rajc
rajc's picture

Transitory bitches. ..it was the weather too  many god damn tornadoes.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:30 | 1325654 Cynthia
Cynthia's picture

Neil Young found something good to say about hurricanes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Obfci1CIqq8&feature=related

I imagine he would say the same thing about tornadoes. I wouldn't expect anything less from the man who's widely known as the Godfather of Grunge.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:38 | 1325254 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

But I don't want qe3. Is there any way it can be stopped? Can congress or somebody do something for main st America instead of helping the wall St crooks all the time?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:57 | 1325324 Pepe
Pepe's picture

Congress and the ones you call Wall St. crooks work for the same corporation. So, the answer is no. It cannot be stopped

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:42 | 1325257 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DANG you know things are about to get wild when GS admits their own spin is nonsensical bullshit! 'Target- Still stable'....LOL!

Hey anything to keep the CNBC viewing 401K Bathrobe Brigades placated a bit longer.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:42 | 1325259 BC6
BC6's picture

And /tears for the GS 1.3B Libya loss or trying to do God's work.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:42 | 1325260 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

That being said, the rise in the inventory component looks somewhat at odds with this explanation.

Sounds like a cognitive dissonance to me. But what do I know. They are the experts.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:40 | 1325268 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Brother Cog,

You know that you love government cheese....and big brother.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:50 | 1325311 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Brother Cdad,

I'm running a little low from the long holiday weekend. Burgers just aren't burgers without government cheese. Could you send some over with my next "Making Work Pay" refundable tax rebate.

BTW I prefer 'sharp', but I'll take what I can get.

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1325317 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Makes one helluva grilled cheese I hear! I can hardly wait for my blocks of Gubment cheeze.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:54 | 1325327 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Sure thing brother Cog...just as soon as Tyler updates this thread with the link to sign up for food stamps.  I'm not a "member" yet, and I'm too stupid a sheep to figure out where to go to get my freebies.

But I do so love big brother.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:04 | 1325350 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like I would need to sell my Vespa scooter to qualify.

http://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/applicant_recipients/eligibility.htm

 

Households may have $2,000 in countable resources, such as a bank account, or $3000 in countable resources if at least one person is age 60 or older, or is disabled.  However, certain resources are NOT counted, such as a home and lot, the resources of people who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), the resources of people who receive Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF, formerly AFDC), and most retirement (pension) plans.

 

Below is a picture of the wife and I looking for work last week. We normally stand on street corners with a cardboard sign that says "Will work for SNAP" but we got tired of the banstas pissing on us while we napped.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:44 | 1325271 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and the 'experts' are paid by the biggest manipulator criminals on earth. 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:24 | 1325460 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

aren't they the same people?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:39 | 1325262 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We attribute a portion of the decline we missed to the unexpectedly reasonable temperatures in the US. 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:45 | 1325278 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

 :D

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:45 | 1325276 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

We are dealing with ANALysts here who shower us with their crappy ANALyses day in and day out.

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:41 | 1325277 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The faster the economy deteriorates....

The higher the XRT goes.  Was just a few cents of punching through to 52-week highs this morning.

And the more we exceed the debt ceiling, the faster investors pile into Treasuries.  I watched the 5-yr. yield drop nearly 5 bp in one hour this morning.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:44 | 1325283 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Economic deterioration'? What, how can that be? 

Only 2 weeks ago you said 'The market is not pricing in QE3, it is pricing in a rubust consumer driven recovery'

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1325330 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

If the market was not pricing in QE3 before, it is now. MSNBC reported $5 gasoline is possible by end of summer. Is it all that demand? I for one rush out to buy all the $5 gasoline I can afford. The pin is starting to apply pressure to the dollar bubble.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:02 | 1325357 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Problem is people cant pay higher prices with everyone broke and on Gubment cheeze. Prices have to go higher, but cant go higher. This should be interesting to watch lay out. Theres going to be some kind of ultra violent blowoff.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:31 | 1325485 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

We need more green technologies to capture gas from lactos intolerant people on government cheese.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:15 | 1325622 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

If prices can not go higher then you have scarcity as produces refuse to produce goods at a loss.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:10 | 1325377 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture


The faster the economy deteriorates....

The higher the XRT goes.  

And yet somehow, I still feel empty and unfulfilled.....like a little kid getting sick eating too much sugar...

We need to see stars! I want IPOs that rise 500% in a day! I want a 'new paradigm'! I want 'killer apps'! XRT, yoga outfits and running shoes....that's dull

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:18 | 1325414 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I want $15 rice burrito stocks!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:50 | 1325298 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Ben's Frankenstein of a recovery is now behaving just as it should, Totally Dysfunctional.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1325308 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

FrankenBen monster now down in the village tearing down houses and mangling the people... 'Said a give' needed but will also kill FrankenBen.

Its funny...the entire world today has already been totaly explained in Mel Brooks movies!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:04 | 1325348 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Don't forget the touching moment where The Monster is soothed and charmed by the innocent little girl: Greece! 

After this interlude it's back to tearing things apart in the PIIGS village: "gnnnnnnah!"

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:53 | 1325323 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Timmy said the brain was from Abby Normal!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:58 | 1325335 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

I think it was from the scarecrow...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:30 | 1325814 Shitters_Full
Shitters_Full's picture

Bernanke is insisting that it was the brain of Hans Delbruck.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:56 | 1325331 The Heart
The Heart's picture

And now for a commercial break please.

In Japan 80% of the people do not trust the govt information and how they are handling this disaster. The majority are not happy at all as the cover up continues.

“The poll conducted by Fuji Television Network also found that nearly 85 percent of respondents said the utility that operates the stricken Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant is dealing with the crisis poorly."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/05/30/general-as-japan-earthquake-po...

So does anyone have a guess as to what a poll in the US would say?

5% Think radiation is good for you.
5% Think there is no problem in Japan.
20% Know nothing.
70% Don’t care

People must get really jiggity and start inundating the US govt and those other places that were doing the animations with questions of why they are covering up the truth and WHY THEY ARE DOING NOTHING TO PROTECT THE PEOPLE OF AMERICA and other countries. People should demand the truth from them.

Please start writing, calling, and e-mailing those agencies that are supposed to protect the people. Same with your congress critters and senate toads. Call them, fax them, write letters, and email them all. Make as much noise as you can. Demand the truth. It is downright CRIMINAL for this COVER-UP to continue. This is a disaster that is far beyond comparison to anything else and it is getting worse every day.

Also, how many of you signed this petition and passed it on:

http://petitions.criirad.org/?For-a-total-transparency-on-the

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:23 | 1325435 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

You are missing one point the Governments don't care about you ,me ,or anyone else but themselves . As long as they can make it to September all is good

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:03 | 1325344 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Please start writing, calling, and e-mailing those agencies that are supposed to protect the people.

Why go to the source of the problems to solve them?

In the course of human events...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:07 | 1325359 Tense INDIAN
Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:07 | 1325361 Tense INDIAN
Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:04 | 1325363 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Inflation Causes Boom, the Bust  (we are entering the bust phase, caused by pulling demand forward during initial inflation)

http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=3895

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:11 | 1325380 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And the real funny part is 'QE3-infinity' has already been factored in for months so its effect will be nothing. Same with debt ceiling. Theres no one left for it to fool, so the only real effect will be a tanking dollar. Firmly in the downward spiral.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1325382 slaughterer
Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1325386 UGrev
UGrev's picture

No, he's taking a break from the golf course.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:17 | 1325411 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Personal announcement'...he's telling the country he bought a new set of Big Bertha golf clubs?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:26 | 1325452 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Watch gold a silver tank

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1325383 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Reminds me of the 3 headed knight in the search for the holy grail: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4SJ0xR2_bQ&t=1m49s

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:15 | 1325413 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

In other words...we have no fuckng idea what we are talking about, and the smoke we're blowing up your balloon knot, is thick, hot and pitch black.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:22 | 1325450 johny2
johny2's picture

USA may go down in history as the biggest Ponzi scheme ever. Unless EU or China don't beat them to it.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:36 | 1325493 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Barry to announce "Summer of Recovery II" at 1:15pm EST.  ALL-IN, go all-in now, buy, buy, buy.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:41 | 1325500 Kina
Kina's picture

The American economy appears to have Aids.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:52 | 1325532 svc101
svc101's picture

Where is the nanothermite when you really need it?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:53 | 1325536 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

With WTI at $102 and Brent sniffing $117, WHAT THE HELL DID THEY THINK WAS GOING TO HAPPEN?

It is a profession that is desperate to persuade people it is relevant.  It is a pseudo science whose practitioners depend on obfuscated complexity to get paid.

It's not complex.  If there is fuel in the engine, it runs.  As the fuel flow slows, it sputters.  Oil is the alpha asset and nothing else matters.

Most certainly not CERA's absurd quotes in the NYT article last week.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:52 | 1325556 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone

 

 

A new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Federal Security Service (FSB) says that former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn [photo with Putin top left] was charged and jailed in the US for sex crimes on May 14th after his discovery that all of the gold held in the United States Bullion Depository located at Fort Knox [photo 2nd left] was ‘missing and/or unaccounted’ for.

 

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1489.htm

 

Oh, oh.

There's trouble ahead.

Alpha Dog Putin strikes back.

 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:11 | 1325608 monopoly
monopoly's picture

What is the matter with you guys, it is all "transitory", benny said so. I am buying PCLN as so many will take vacations with their mortgage money they are not paying.

 

lol

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:12 | 1325613 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it's a man baby

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 13:39 | 1325836 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'm surprised they didn't manage to work the word transitory in there somewhere, since that's the new buzz word that seems to explain away all the badness.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 15:19 | 1326136 Jim Lahey
Jim Lahey's picture

If we spin the spin enough eventually it coincides with the distorted reality of the markets we manipulate.  Any further questions will be referred back to this statement.

 

- The Squid

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 15:48 | 1326206 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

We attribute this miss to some factors which we failed to incorporate or others we blatantly misinterpreted. And now, our prediction for next month based on the same incomplete set of misunderstood factors.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 20:01 | 1327074 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Their (Goldman's) simulations? What did they buy out the Project X lab?

I wonder what it says about bailouts for bankster bonuses?

 

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