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Even Lab Rats Have Become Habituated To Expect The Last 15 Minute Meltup On No Volume
No volume melt ups have become the norm under the Bernanke regime - everyone is forced to expect the most ridiculous, manipulated excreta possible from the primary dealers. When people realize, soon enough, that the fair value of their 401k are about 95% lower, maybe, just maybe, something will change about this broken record. Until then, just bet on the chopper - Benny will make it all good until everything ultimately blows up.
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rats... hahaha GO PPT
More like Pavlov's dogs. ( : Ring the bell and the fools come running.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jprI7U_hk6E
Dinner bell dinner bell ding ding ding.
Shouldn't there be some sort of volume if there is PPT buying ? This looks like the odometer is disconnected from the wheel and is connected to the drivers asshole.
are you expecting me to give back the money made on a few dozen AUD/JPY contracts today...last hour specifically?
No, sorry....Ben stages this little game precisely to allow us to reap a few pennies.....crumbs to the peasantry.
401k holders don't care about the "fair value." They only care about the present value. And that's where Bennie and the Jets come in. They play the game well. 511 Dow points for a 4-day week. You gotta tip your hats. They can do this at will, and probably forever.
you cannot hold it up for good..fair value always wins..
Forever? Nah. Even Rome fell - and they didn't even need a discount window!
Rome also didn't have a printing press.
sure they did. they just debased their currency by way of the silver content.
just picture ben with a smelter, in lieu of a keyboard.
That would be fine by me.
Then perhaps we could bank on a collapse spread out over 300+ years rather than 1000 or so days.
Indeed they did. There's a number of charts floating around with the silver content of a denarius over time. A quick google turned up this one: http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/historical-perspective-the-us-doll...
Short version - 95% silver to a few percent in a couple hundred years. Sounds an awful like a slower version of what's happened to the dollar since the Fed took over.
Ben's methods are clearly nothing new.
I admit.. PPT scared me off for shorting prior to Monday AM. I can't compete with the Fed's unlimited bankroll. I can't risk the market going up triple digits on the possibility Obama holds a press conference to tell us the economy is improving.
Blaming the PPT for your inability to trade is a false excuse, because if you truly do believe that the PPT exists, then you simply go long. If anything, a belief in the PPT should make trading exceptionally easy.
I believe in the PPT and they do make it easier to trade. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets..
No, believing in the PPT is as simple as KNOWING there is manipulation afoot. Clearly, there is. However, to know that the manipulator exists does not automatically extend itself to knowing the motives of the manipulator, or the depth of his toolbox.
Most of us assume that "going long" means the PPT will eventually run out of tricks (and whalla! fair value finds the light of day). But we do not know the lengths or the depths to which the manipulator might go. Thus, we're paralyzed with fascination. What will happen next?
Wrong.
According to its name and the manner in which it is always talked about, the PPT always moves the market up.
The when/why doesn't matter. Simply stay long. It's always up, and apparently it happens all the time. Plunge protection, right?
When you don't understand something, blaming the mysterious desires of the gods always fills the unexplainable void.
I think given your simple (yet illogical) logic, it's not hard to figure out who understands something and who is the unexplainable void here. "When/why doesn't matter" - Um.. Errr... That comment was so silly I refuse to elaborate on it
..and it's Homer Simpson with the SLAM DUNK!
+woohoo
I notice you only reply to critique others but offer nothing constructive yourself. Why don't you try to "elaborate on it" and share your genius with the rest of us?
"I notice you only reply to critique others" .. Then you have selective memory and obviously only pay attention to my "critique" comments. And no, I won't elaborate on your last question since your view of me is already skewed.
I am a fan of your posts, homersimpson. Keep them coming!
When one doesn't understand something, proclaiming that other people don't know what they are talking about can also make one look foolish.
Simply stay long. It's always up ...
Nobody here is claiming that the PPT behavior can be reduced to that simplistic notion. The ups and downs of the market itself demonstrate that your simplistic notion is not true. The PPT may always move the market up, but the level from which they start their move varies. And around here, using the term PPT is a quick way of making reference to government intervention in the markets, regardless of who actually does the intervening or what form the intervention takes. There are many ways the government can make the market move, or simply influence it to move, which I'm sure you are aware of if you've been reading here for any length of time.
Richard
ZeroHedge has done a remarkably fantastic job detailing and exposing how our markets are ruled by algos. However, belief in a government-controlled PPT that buys S&P futures is a little too conspiratorial for me, but it makes for interesting cocktail conversations.
Seemingly unexplainable movements in equity markets are nothing more than algos creating momentum in the direction that they need to unload at a profit, whether that's up or down. These algos can easily create momentum when the market is - for all practical discussions - nothing but a vacuum.
Far too often, people aren't able to explain random market movements, so they create market ghosts (PPT's) which surely must be responsible for their losing trades. Sometimes ignorance leads to delusions, like trying to explain thunder by using god and bowling balls.
algos ?
"It's always up, and apparently it happens all the time"
One little problem, the S&P 500 is right where it was in July.... 12 years ago. Adjust for inflation and loss of buying power and "it's always down, and it apparently happens all the time".
You didn't read my post correctly.
The quote of mine that you referenced is in regard to the supposed PPT, and their supposed affect on the market. According to those that believe in the PPT fairy tale, the market is always manipulated upwards, and it does it all the time.
Except when they want a bailout, want to scare congress away from regulation, or as I half expect in the next few weeks, want to justify their latest scheme to pump another 5T into the 'economy'. Then its down HARD.
Also I dont sleep well knowing that a press release can come out over the weekend... no traded.. but the threat is there.. after last week..
If and only if one believes that intervention works indefinitely.
Your advice is akin to always doubling your bets on a blackjack table when you lose. Therefore the quality level of your advice ranks "up" there with Robert Kiyosaki and Suze Orman because you assume one's bankroll is unlimited or easy to replenish.
Inability to trade? More like your lack of awareness of what can happen if the timing is wrong. I just don't want to be crippled doing shorts when the stock market rises triple digits on crappy Obama-inspired speeches about how he's looking for an ass to kick.
> Red Neck...#461187
If anything, a belief in the PPT should make trading exceptionally easy...
Yup...
It's the Lebron Economy stupid
The American sheeple have suffered a Lebronomy.
Quick! Look over there! A basketball player is moving to another city!
...and the peasants rejoice... or not..
Haha. Professional sports is getting attention whory. Because it's dying.
Is this Fed induced move the same as last year? If so, then the USD is about to lose some serious value from now till EOY. So much is at stake right now. I can't believe these clowns are going to be able to pull this off two years in a row.
I think the idea is to make everybody THINK this is going to be a repeat of last July, to draw in some retail volume buying so the prop traders can dump their positions. Problem is the similarities between this year and last are really only superficial and to me this looks more like a 'sell the rallies' market than a 'buy the dips' market.
..."this looks more like a 'sell the rallies' market than a 'buy the dips market...."
Hah. Depends on which week. Traders are selling the rallies and PPT pumps each dip. Be nimble during the day ; move to cash overnight: my two trading mantras for the dog days of summer.
Depends on your timeframe. I've found that playing options with at least a 2 month expiry window works for me, as long as I'm on the right trend. In any case, my comment was based on the technical condition of the market, which to me looks quite similar to late 2007.
With no Volume, only the best offer has to move to start a 10-share meltup. No institutional buying at all.
It's kinda like watching a sci-fi movie about a post-nuclear apocalypse: the machines are still working their HFT magic like clockwork as if everything is normal, but all the people are already dead and vaporized for quite some time..
Oh crap, that may be too close to the truth. I've always worried that the "machines" are evolution in real time and we are being subtly dislocated by them. TGIF, I can drink away that image in my brain tonight.
Exactly! We've been watching this for weeks, and it's getting kinda creepy. I call it a holographic market, as if the actual market died in 2008, and what we're experiencing is a holographic recreation, an amalgam of trading days recorded before the living market's untimely death. The volume seems ungainly and synthetic, as if produced by two sets of computers in the basement of offices on Maiden Lane, programmed by feckless gamers to give a life-like impression of actual trading.
..Except that it's dead and two dimensional. Furthermore, it's obvious there's a desired PPS to be achieved by whatever means, regardless of volume, so it's not even a true interactive computer game which changes direction based on fresh input and new information. You can also now simply ignore most news or fundamentals...those are empty datapoints, mere static to be disregarded. Technicals don't seem to count for much either, as they can be created and altered at will.
You know, some days I wish they would just go ahead and tell us the parameters allowed in our new diminished trading universe of 50 stocks: AAPL only from $248/$252, GOOG $440/$458, BAC $14/$15, and never FAZ on penalty of an extreme haircut with a chainsaw. The only movement allowed is in the first 45 minutes of trading (disregarding the zombie trading from 3:30 pm - 4 pm, which is moot for us as options traders anyway). No deviation from these prescribed values is allowed except with an express 1 day release from the Komissar of Market Stability and Reassurance.
It reminds me of a little kid playing Monopoloy who is cheating, but forcing the other players to go through the rounds until he collects every dollar, even though it's quite clear who owns the bank, Boardwalk and all the hotels on Park Place.
Why do we even go through this torture? Just to satisfy the ego of the kid who owns all the pieces? When I was a kid, at that point we'd throw up the board and scatter the pieces and at least make the little chit scramble under the sofa and work to put it back together.
Stick a fork in it - this market is done, imo. Even hedge fund guys are getting out and only leaving a bot army of market Roombas to scoop up any crumbs left behind by fleeing carbon based life forms. I can hope things change in the fall, but somehow I'm not entirely optimistic.
just a friendly reminder of technical analysis 101:
http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety.com/2010/07/bear-takes-a-bite-out-of...
fractal geometry is stronger than the fed...
Mandelbrot was on to something.....
BP being shopped?
http://www.benzinga.com/global/10/07/368630/is-bp-being-shopped-bp
I honestly thought with the dow up only 30 or so a few minutes before the close that we might have some profit-taking from the longs into the weekend...Guess not.
Many thanks to the hard working super computers, algos, and computer science interns left behind in the office for teeing me up for next week. Fantastic job!
I AM AMERICA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0heL2Czeraw WHAT MORE CAN BE SAID! BE WISE!!
Economic indicators and trends are not pushing forward toward recovery; they are pushing backward toward recession. They point to an end to this market charade. Nobody has faith in the market because it’s manipulated.
As Durden says: “Will the three blind mute retarded monkeys who actually still have any faith left in our ridicuously manipulated market please follow all the other lemmings over the cliff, not forget to pay Goldman Sachs the $200 suicide fee, and shut the light on their way out.”
Wall Street manipulators can’t have two years of bad news, the indexes going down all day on the bad news, and then spiked up at the end to get the results they want. The people won’t play that game with them.
The Dow can’t save us. The economy is bigger and more important than the Dow Jones. What is coming are the cold, hard figures. Volume is so low, manipulators can spike the market whenever they want but, eventually, all the people are going to lose faith in the market…and it becomes irrelevant. Investors are leaving, with their money.
In short, these privileged manipulators aren’t so smart; they are destroying the golden goose.
The public is on notice that it is dealing with an enemy and it is watching the moves. Fortunately, it is not the docile and trusting public it was back in the days of Lyndon Johnson and Nixon. “In God We Trust,” yes, but no longer in the government, its money nor the stock market.
Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points predicts the government will attempt to solve its problems with a geo-political event within the next 90 days as “cover to execute its predetermined agenda.” That agenda, described yesterday in his excellent article Extend & Pretend: Stage I Ends, is “to move public opinion towards further ‘stimulus spending,’” another $5T (minimum).
If the politicians try something of that order, IMO, it will be a backlash against them. You can tell by the way these “servants” of the people talk and act that they don’t know the public, nor how informed some of the people have become.
The point is, this country is founded on voluntary support of the government—that voluntary support can be withdrawn at any time. The government’s mantra is that the highest form of life is to be a good citizen; and that to withdraw your support or rebel against its abuses is not to be a good citizen. If you don’t support the government, the media tells you: You are not cooperative. You do not want compromise. Or, best of all: You are not bipartisan; you are a political faction. You have put your interests above the common good. This is a filthy trap and it starts when you are in kindergarten. It is the opposite of being an individual; of bootstrapping your way in a land of opportunity.
The truth is, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance. At the time of the writing of the Constitution, there was no such a thing as a Federal Citizen.
“It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance; which condition if he break, servitude is at once the consequence of his crime and the punishment of his guilt. – John Philpot Curran in a speech upon the Right of Election (1790)
Americans deserve equal opportunity in the economy...and the market.
Excellent post, JR.
The truths in JRs post applied when we were still an agrarian society and most folks earned their living from working the land. They hardly apply today, in our post industrial society (said industry having been offshored), when most folks earn their living from working the government.
Those former farmers are turning their pitchforks into a movement, and modern weapons… like the Internet.
Your post made me laugh. We STILL work the land, just in different ways. That's why the GoM is a fucking mess. Oil is from the land. Gold is from the land. Everything that a Chinese factory pumps out is from the land. Real value is land converted through labor. Econ 101. I don't know what you do, friend, but if it doesn't involve the land it's gonna end, sooner rather than later.
To all ZH shorts: the economy is improving, earnings will be great, and the liquidity tsunami will drive risk assets higher. Only pain out there will be felt by naked short sellers. You can whine, complain, but I suggest you join the algos and make some money.
Maybe, but I've made a pretty good return over the past 2 months being short the market. Statistically, you're better off being out of the market between May and October anyway, so I think I'll leave the long side 'profits' to the algos for now and play the seasonals and the trendlines.
Leo, this game is far from over. We were over sold. Earnings or no earnings, this market is sickly... Doug Kass will eat his words. Deflation has a firm hold and is not going to let go.
Leo, I want so badly to like you and then you go and post this shit. Join the algos? Seriously?
I agree with the strategy, but my problem lies deeper.
I hand Mr. Market my wallet, he takes out my cash and turns it into an even bigger pile of cash. And when I'm ready to go, he tells me that I'm rich but I can't have my wallet back.
If I can't stab it in the eye, I no longer trust it.
One of these days, a technician is going to go to the control interface, press a key, and the alog's are gonna respond back:
"Go away ugly bag of mostly water."
Should be a fun day.
Unless that tech's name happens to be Manuel Garcia "Mannie" O'Kelly-Davis.
Ooooh! Star Trek AND Heinlein. You're my Personal Short Term Personal Deity for the day!!
I too wonder how to read/interpret the "red", can anyone help with a link showing the "101" of this
LEO's solar call looking real good this week.
KABOOM
They won't let it crash. Watching Greenspan on TV talking about how important the stock market is as a tool to LEAD the economy was a clear view into the insane mindset at the Fed. They actually believe the tail can always wag the dog. I agree the tail can wag the dog, but it is not a tail. It is two dogs joined at the ass. And when one dog gets to wagging while the other is trying to sleep, a "flash assbiting" eventually takes place.
The fact is, most people don't have meaningful 401ks. So this market intervention stupidity is just more welfare for the bankers and the rich. Maybe you can't short it. But the market will eventually force them to sell one way or another. The chasers they were hoping for never materialized. The prisoner's dilemma will be upon them.
Besides, the state printing money to buy up the means of production...isn't that just a less violent path to Socialism?
They think the investor class is tail wagging the dog economy.
It's a form of Q/E too. And they'd like to negate the Head & Shoulders breakdown, I'm sure, it can be done by pushing the 20-day right here at 1080 up, it collides with the 200day, then all 3 -20-daysma, 50ema & 200ema come together.(SPY) Would take a week or two I would think. SPY has to break 1060 pretty much to cause breakdown.
Watched SPY most all day for short opp/ Bids kept appearing, looked at Level II in last 15 min, a 100,000sh bid kept appearing and gone, never filled.
SPY $108, DIA $102 was clearly the target even yesterday, no stopping it.
Now they have a cup & handle, to possibly breakout both on "better than expected" next week?
This rally started when the PDs found out FinReg is gutted, delayed. I bet after hrs Friday, this geared up on 4th holiday weekend, has to be it. They got the word, years to phase in, it's biz as usual from what I see. Something changed, that's it.
They dont even try to be subtle. No pride in their work. It is almost sad if I were not so angry.
More rally next week ?
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
I need these technical indicators! WTF. Does it really cost $1500 to get this stuff? I just want to measure the volume relative to price movement so I don't f myself.
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