This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Even Steve Wozniak, the Co-Founder of Apple, Made a Freudian Slip Extolling the Virtues and Inevitable Dominance of Android!
Sometimes people are just so honest and frank that you really have
not choice but to give them credit. I happen to think that I am one of
those people. There (though there may be a few who disagree). Well, it
appears as if i have come across another such person, with a statement
you just don’t hear everyday from someone in his position. I have been
touting the virtues of Android and how it will end up eating Apple’s
lunch and anybody who follows me knows I have been keen on Google, via
Android, knocking Apple off of its perch, see:
- The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
- Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
- Android is gaining preference as the long-term choice of application developers
- Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!
- More of the Android Onslaught: Increasing Handset Revenues and Growth
- iSuppli Continues to Validate BoomBustBlog’s Original Thesis: Android as the Viral Game Changer!
It is one thing to have Reggie Middleton or BoomBustBlog warn of the
Android eating Apple but it is a totally different matter when the
actual co-founder of Apple itself (STEVE Wozniak) actually comes out and
admits it. Check this out from Endgadget (hat tip to BoomBustBlogger
& programmer extraordinaire Indy):
Woz then moved on to the topic of
Android saying that Android smartphones, not the iPhone, would become
dominant, noting that the Google OS is likely to win the race similarly
to the way that Windows ultimately dominated the PC world. Woz
stressed that the iPhone, “Has very few weak points. There aren’t any
real complaints and problems. In terms of quality, the iPhone is
leading.” However, he then conceded that, “Android phones have more
features,” and offer more choice for more people. Eventually, he thinks
that Android quality, consistency, and user satisfaction will match
iOS.
Endgadget quickly published a piece stating that Woz was misquoted by the Dutch paper that initially printed the comment. Here’s how it went:
Woz says he gave the De
Telegraaf reporter a lengthy demonstration of voice commands on iOS and
Android, pointed out that Android offered the ability to say “Navigate
to Joe’s Diner,” and suggested that Apple would catch up through its purchases of Siri and Poly9.
According to Steve, that’s about it — he says he’d “never” say that
Android was better than iOS, and that “Almost every app I have is better
on the iPhone.” Woz did say he lightly prognosticated that Android
would become more popular “based on what I’ve read,” but that he expects
Android “to be a lot like Windows… I’m not trying to put Android
down, but I’m not suggesting it’s better than iOS by any stretch of the
imagination. But it can get greater marketshare and still be crappy.”
He’s not shy, that Woz — listen to him say it all for yourself after
the break.
After reading this, my first thought was hmmm… That was one hell of a misstatement. Endgadget actual had a stream of the interview here.
After listening to it, I am still a little suspect, primarily because
everything that he said positive about Android was absolutely true. He
actually is in complete agreement with me regarding Android taking the
path of Windows in the Windows vs Apple battles of the 90’s and 90’s. I
discussed it in detail in the post A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple:
The Mac OS actually had the first
mover advantage and blew it doing the same thing that they are doing
now, which was trying to fight the commodization of their cash cow
platform by maintaining a totally vertical manufacturing and
distribution channel – controlling software, hardware and firmware
while refusing to license any portion out. The result was the
proliferation of PC clones that drove the costs of computers
considerably below $1000 per unit while Apple was charging up to $3000+
while having an inferior selection of 3rd party applications. Does this sound familiar??? Think of the growth of the Android platform to date.
It is absolutely amazing to hear the founder of Apple iterate such,
even though he did attempt to backtrack some. Even with the back
tracking, he still assets that Android will probably takeover the market
as did Windows. Apple investors should take note, and look at MSFT’s
revenues and profits as compared to Apple’s over that same time period.
Even Steve Wozniack is implicitly endorsing Google as an investment! He
also refers to voice commands, which is absolutely phenomenal and has no
comparison in iOS.
Keep in mind this feature came out 2 entire revisions ago (a 3rd,
major upgrade – Gingerbread – is due out any day now). In addition,
stating that “almost every app I have is better on iOS”
is not a glowing endorsement from the guy who literally started and
owns the company makes iOS. Parsed semantically, it is an admittance
that the apps he doesn’t have, and cannot get are
superior than what is available on the iPhone. Before anyone jumps on me
for that analysis, take a look at the apps that are unique to Android
and let me know if I have a point:
For the record, I use this app regularly on my HTC Evo, and it is not
only quite multi-linguistic conversation starter, but literally
amazing. I have muddled through conversations in Taiwanese, Mandarain,
Hatian, Dutch, etc.
This is also a revolutionary product that is unique to Android in
terms of full integration. It can be used indirectly on other platforms,
but the Android implementation/integrations is far superior.
I invite all to take a look at the power and capability of Google Voice via their Youtube Channel.
Those of you who can’t see the potential in this will probably never be convinced, so I won’t even bother elaborating…
While the effects and templates are uber cool in this app, the
reviewer failed to elaborate on what is by far the most notable feature
of this Android camera replacement app, and that is the ability to set
Android to record images nearly uncompressed in JPEG and at max
resolution. On my HTC Evo, that is 3264×2448 pixels using the 8 MP
camera. The highest settings create 5 to 7 mb files, but the pictures
are absolutely phenomenal when taken in adequate lighting. I have had
several professional photographers (as in more than 2) say that their
next phone will definitely be an Android after seeing how this app
combines with the Evo’s 4.3 inch screen and 8 mp camera. The range of
real time processing settings and templates are very, very extensive as
well.
So, does all of this Android stuff really make a difference? Let’s excerpt Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!
. 
Below is a graph showing the longer term trend of Apple market share
in the smart phone space. It illustrates the explosive growth Apple has
had through its iPhone series, and it also shows some seasonality (ex.
lull before hardware upgrade season, etc.). As you can see, the growth
trend, viewed either directly or as a moving average, shows marked
downward momentum. Of course, it is highly unreasonable to expect a
company to continue to grow at the pace that Apple has, but that is
exactly what many Apple valuation models that I have come across have –
literally hard-coded in. This is folly, in my opinion – particularly
considering the effect of the Android competition that is already
showing up. If you look closely, Apple’s smart phone market share is
already showing NEGATIVE growth!
Since I know that the chart may be a little difficult to read at the
tail end encompassing several years of data, I have taken the liberty
to drill down to the past year to get a closer look. Remember, Android
sales didn’t really get started until 8 months ago, and the big surge
didn’t occur until the Evo/Droid X/Samsung Galaxy series were launched
in June, July and August – most of which is not captured here. The same
is to be said for Apple and the iPhone 4.
Click to enlarge to printer size!
Despite increases in both the overall mobile market and more importantly, the smart phone contingent’s penetration of said market:
- Apple’s smart phone shipments are showing a negative growth trend
- and more importantly, Apple’s smart phone market share is
experiencing a very sharp downward trend as shown by both direct
observation and that of the 2 period moving average.
The game has been changed ever since HTC released the Evo, which is essentially a networked pocket supercomputer. We outlined the technically superior features of HTC’s flagship phones in “A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple’s Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC’s Google-Powered Phone”
as well as supplying a graphical comparison of the major Android
handset releases compared to their most potent competition – Research in
Motion Blackberries and the Apple iPhone:
Note to Subscribers, this chart takes precedent over the one included in the Apple business strategy document, 
Apple business model note. This also ties in with 
Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model.
This has not been lost on the market either, reference Big Money Starts to Dump Apple After I Warned of Margin Compression on CNBC Hours Before Apple Announced Compression Friday, November 12th, 2010 and Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010 and most importantly A Quick Peek Into the REAL WORLD Logic That Went Into Building the BoomBustBlog Apple Model: It’s Called Compression!!!Tuesday, October 19th, 2010
You see, I thought it was rather prescient to call margin compression, live on CNBC
(3:40 into the video), just hours before Apple announced… Margin
Compression… At a time when just about everyone who could spell Apple
shouted Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!!!
So, following up on the piece that I did just a few hours ago – Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He? along with this cute chart…
- A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple
- Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple’s (Short-lived?) Dominance
- Apple on the Margin
- How
Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the
Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without
Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue - An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
- After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
- The BoomBustBlog Multivariate Research in Motion Valuation Model: Ready for Download
- The Complete, 63 pg Google Forensic Valuation is Available for Download
- iSuppli Continues to Validate BoomBustBlog’s Original Thesis: Android as the Viral Game Changer!
- BoomBustBlog Research Hits Another One Out the Park! Google up nearly 10% after hours, true blowout earnings unlike JPM
- As
I Warned in June, DO NOT DISCOUNT Microsoft in This Mobile
Computing War! Their Marketing Campaign is PURE GENIUS! and it
Appears as if the Phone Ain’t Bad Either - Reggie Middleton Wasn’t the ONLY Openly Apple Bear in the Blogoshpere, Was He?
- A Quick Peek Into the REAL WORLD Logic That Went Into Building the BoomBustBlog Apple Model: It’s Called Compression!!!
- advertisements -
yawn, all my phone needs are taken care of by a linux netbook running skype.
it's kind of like an ipad but it cost half the price and has a camera, keyboard, usb, multitasks, and the guys that made it dont have porn issues.
ipad 2010: THE YEAR WE MONOTASK!
Reggie,
You would get a kick out of this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvA8Hdmit-U
I have an insight to share.
Ever since I got an iPad, I stopped using my phone for surfing and email activities since the little screens give me a headache.
I now have a simple compact phone that has excellent POT features for voice. I am saving a shit load of money on monthly fees by following this strategy.
Buy a new phone every year or the terrorists win?
This is hilarious, the world now has ANDROID FAN BOYS....???
Lol!
Get a life - Apple is like BMW or perhaps Mercedes. It will never be the biggest, but rather a solid performer for a more expensive product.
Of course there will always be more less-rich people who choose a cheaper generic product.
And as someone pointed out above - this ranting about "Voice!" from Android Fanboys .. who cares? Consumers plain DON'T WANT voice operated apps. Its' a non-issue. Indeed the iPhone has the stupendous "face time" system, but who uses it? Nobody.
The other thing is .. who cares about smartphones? This news is three years old. The next fad will be here soon enough.
Finally - the prediction "Apple stock is overvalued!" has got to be about the most obvious prediction in 20 years. OK, so it's going down.
Yup.
Jobs just came back to refill his wallet with his vertical market integration skills learned in the 70's-80's.
He doesn't need the work anymore....
I would check your head about caring about smartphones. They are rapidly replacing business process that was normally done with a laptop or pc. The marriage between personal and business time was one of the 80's this tool is further proof of that..old news but news that still is applicable. IMO, MS has brought at smarter phone concept wise to the market and while not groundbreaking trend wise, is going to be a more forward looking platform than what we currently have with apple/android. Theres nothing definitive for apple, beyond the trend of a "must have", and androids platform at best is erratic. Simply put, I don't think theres enough vision beyond the marketing for apple/android.
As a developer... I have to say that Cocoa/Objective-C is really addictive. It is a great language and API. Going back to my Java programming, not droid but web stuff, seems so unexciting, a bit old, and not nearly as 'cool' as Objective-C.
With the advent of the AppStore for desktop Apps, developers are going to have a great little boom as all those iPhone/iPad apps suddenly become available. And with Apple's strategy of offering things for Windows (iTunes, etc.), we have some killer potential for all little developers.
Apple is very sharp Reggie. Remember they are looking where the puck is going.
And for my own shameless plug.. check out my iphone app at www.BarterCalc.com. It is a simple little app for all you Gold and Silver bugs, present company included.
cheers
As a PM dealer, I'd buy your app in a heartbeat - for my Android.
Ported it over yet?
I still don't see how a uniform platform from Apple will be taken over by a fragmented market for Android(s plural).
As a developer, I know which one appeals to me and my bottom line (who wants to do N-times the QA and support?).
It's a quantity vs. quality issue. It's a pain in the ass to get an app approved by Apple. You need an actual dev budget of a non-trivial size to make it happen. Android is the "guys in the basement" platform of choice, because it's easy to use and approval is catalyzed appropriately. Guess what drove the last market domination? The "guys in the basement" making hit software on a platform that wasn't a complete bitch and a half to work with.
Another feather in Google's cap coming down the pike: unrestricted internet TV. Currently, much of the internet TV products are confined to a few sites, none of which get you easy access to porn. Google's product will have no such issues. As with the Blueray battle, porn will be the driver.
What are the true findings as far as radiation in cell phones are concerned?
If someone could update me that would be great.
As someone who is beginning to believe that Apple is becoming a very attractive short, i'm mulling over any fundamental reasons.
Of course, my favorite-reinstating the DRAFT for cheesy 18-twenty somethings, probably won't happen.
Yeah. I have Google voice on my iPhone. never use it though. Who the fuck wants to wander around barking commands at their phone apart from those douchebags that think it makes them look like players (you know the ones that whip out their phones as soon as a plane lands and start talking about their ETA to the meeting and closing the deal).
I think you are on a loser with the Apple rant Reggie. Their shit works well and looks nice. Deal with it.
Yeah, but like Reggie I find it nice to dream of a nice big fat correction back down to say....$100?
I don't want to be greedy.
I agree 120percent. Look at the list of links at the end of my oust. I have warned at least three times that msft is not to be counted out of this.
70% of the smartphone market is resedential. This is the attack vector for MS... I wouldnt count them out. For a Gen 1 phone , Phone 7 smokes ios in congruency of application presentation , enterprise availability and execution. Coupling social apps with enterprise apps is sexy. While trends and the resulting money can buy market share, MS has yet to bring the fully operational Death Star to bear on this market. WM 6.5 was a lesson of not bringing a knife to a gun fight.
/2 cents
Who cares
Anything... ANYTHING but Apple please.
Careful what you wish for RE. the Android translator:
* "The Babel fish" said The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy quietly, "is a small, yellow and leech-like, and probably the oddest thing in the Universe. It feeds on brainwave energy received not from its own carrier but from those around it. It absorbs all unconscious mental frequencies from this brainwave energy to nourish itself with. It then excretes into the mind of its carrier a telepathic matrix formed by combining the conscious thought frequencies with nerve signals picked up from the speech centers of the brain which has supplied them. The practical upshot of all this is that if you stick a Babel fish in your ear you can instantly understand anything in any form of language. The speech patterns you actually hear decode the brainwave matrix which has been fed into your mind by your Babel fish."
* "Now it is such a bizarrely improbable coincidence that anything so mindbogglingly useful could have evolved purely by chance that some thinkers have chosen to see it as the final and clinching proof of the non-existence of God. The argument goes something like this:
`I refuse to prove that I exist,' says God, `for proof denies faith, and without faith I am nothing.'
`But,' says Man, `The Babel fish is a dead giveaway, isn't it? It could not have evolved by chance. It proves you exist, and so therefore, by your own arguments, you don't. QED.'
`Oh dear,' says God, `I hadn't thought of that,' and promptly vanished in a puff of logic."
* `Oh, that was easy,' says Man, and for an encore goes on to prove that black is white and gets himself killed on the next zebra crossing.
* "Most leading theologians claim that this argument is a load of dingo's kidneys, but that didn't stop Oolon Colluphid making a small fortune when he used it as the central theme of his bestselling book Well That About Wraps It Up For God."
* "Meanwhile, the poor Babel fish, by effectively removing all barriers to communication between different races and cultures, has caused more and bloodier wars than anything else in the history of creation."
What if Facebook enters the market with a smart phone. They will own the world. Don't you think? I wonder when they will go public.
Reggie, any news/views on the Android-based tablet from NotionInk - http://notionink.in ? I read their blog at notionink.wordpress.com and they have been steadily getting more comments over the last few months, up to 1200 per blog post, meaning many thousands must be reading them, indicating interest.
Until the hardware on the 10 to 12 inch form factor running Gingerbread is released, all bets are off as to the state of the tablet market. I am of the mindset that the iPad may face stiff, if not superior competition at price points that will force them to cannabalize its own sales.
The fact that Apple wants to integrate a hardware based SIM into the Iphones and Ipad is going to kill them overtime.
EU carriers don't want that en won't bow to apple to make these investments.