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Everybody Long (and Wrong)
As we suggested 2 days ago, gold looks good for a retest of the highs, while the SPX looks rather toppish. Some Technicals on the Market. The no volume melt up, driven by Algos only, not considering other risk assets, today got an abrupt ending. The trader has argued of buying vol, as there simply are too many possible “bumps in the road” going forward. For a detailed look, please read, This Time is Different, or will The Next Financial Crisis Be Even Worse.
Today’s NFP figures disappointed the market totally. We are still rather fascinated by the pundits, of whom one outstanding, raised his estimates from 100k to 175k, only yesterday, just to find the answer today, 18k. These guys earning six figure sums yearly, per default, should be reconsidered. But, being that wrong doesn’t matter on Wall Street.
So while people all want to believe in the recovery scenario, the Economy is falling off the cliff. With Fed having pumped up asset prices, we could be heading for the Nirvana Collapse, later this autumn. When people understand the Economy is in a serious double dip, Greece needs to default and the US looses the credit rating agencies support, people will be running to the hills. We still believe in buying vol on declines, as the market is pricing in risks very “strange”. Irrational exuberance is here, and the black swan won’t be the Greek Default, it will be something much bigger, while Obama will try quick fixing the Economy, in order to win the Elections.
For this year’s still absolutely best analysis of why volatility is “mispriced”, please read a Refresher of the Artemis volreport.
Some charts of the NFP.
Charts, Jessie
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h/t Mark
by MarcusAurelius
on Fri, 07/08/2011 - 19:33
#1438673
You know this is mind boggling that people even remotely consider that this is anything but a dead cat bounce. What recovery in the past fifty years was quatitative easing used? What recovery had unemployment this high and with no end in sight? What recovery had consumers in so much debt? What recovery happened with no corporations hiring and afraid to hire. What recovery happened where proper accounting was thrown out the window? What recovery was there where housing was contracting like it is still? I mean this is as obvious as the sun rises that governments are dealing with a global depression becuase of debt. It won't be solved until the debt is purged.
Major problem is that there is way to many people making this way to complicated.
All people , companies , Countries fail when that happens.
The solution will require all to go back to the basics of making honest, long term , value added and prudent decisions . There is no one answer and it may take decades to fix our economy and the system that surrounds it but now is the time to start.
Test every choice with the four values and BTFD's and hope for the best.
Most of the people on this board know what is going to happen, as surely as they know one day the sun will stop shining. The moon grow dark along with it, and if the earth is still in its orbit, all life will cease within a very short time.
But if this were a heat map and there were only two things on it---one, the events, and two, the timing of those events---- the red portion, representing Time, would be 99% of the total.
Predictions are easy when only one vector if being used.
It is clear that the Economic
theories in place are outdated, just look at the unemployment report, 99.99% of
professional economist were completely wrong and are all wearing their rose coloured
glasses rather be realistic. The US economy is in huge trouble, that’s a fact.
Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute (CRI): Creative Destruction – A New Economic Order
www.capitalresearchinstitute.org
CRI is a joke, and they want donations.
The Austrian hope that they survive and can buy cheap in a crash is alive and well funded by those exempt from the travail. Exploitation is the virtue, not the social contract. The lions don't want the sheep to get away. Not only that, they want their worship.
I'm not so sure they do believe it.
Peeps around me are loosing jobs left and right, fuk all.
~out
thevictoryreport
Everyone is 99.999 sure that the debt limit will be raised by Aug. 2nd. Let's take the other side of that trade and say it doesn't.
This is the black swan.
Spooks the hell out of the markets with massive shifts in positions. Global heat maps turn red everywhere. Greece hoists the big finger. Pundits dish out tons of told ya so. Sheep can't believe they let it happen. GW type Shock 'n Awe reigns over the land.
But then..........
King Barack the 1st invokes the 14th Amendment, only pays interest to the chosen few as congress falls into a morass of finger pointing. Belzebub Bernanke serves up QEtouffe to the joyous illuminati as mothers and children huddle to ponder their plight.
What better way to speed the unification of the Matrix.
Just sayin....... after all, most Pundits say it won't happen. Only .001 chance (Really)
The only edit I offer, is that Hussein does not take any bold step. If he can hide in the crowd, he will, if he cannot, the pronoun "I", becomes inoperative.
It is always good to look at extreme scenarios. You can learn something, and it gets the mental wheels turning.
Bearings like wheels and things that turn.
As hammers like nails...
gh
The investment community knows QE3 has publically been taken off the table but there is no way around not doing it so its a chess game.
QQQ being beaten higher by algos since this morning! Jesus, what a blunt in your face manipulation! They are selling calls like crazy, VIX barely moved! I thought POMO was over!:)))
no I stated on this site that I have met my short term target level based on the use of speed lines, and hourly rsi the market was hugely over bought. I also stated that in regular trading the futires being up so high should usually be the time to start a short position. I maintained my shorts that I had started on 7/1, as those were about the top of my channels. I also say the euro channels. since I started going long about june 16th, I'l get some profits regardless of what happens.
need to be careful though as udn really hasn' hit much lower lows the past three days.
lastly, I mentioned tbt doesn't usually behave this way. it get to new lower lows then falls back. suggesting the market needed to fall back to go higher.
notice we are closing higher than we opened in many cases. !!!
Ya know, whatever dudes. Unemployed for 3 months now. Beans, bullion and bullets bitchez.
+7.62X.54r
+ (9mm + (7.62 * 39))
+.45
+.223
7mag
Buy PM on the dip. Even GS (naked shorts) can't make those PM coins in your hands worthless. In fact; The spot market for PM is it's own market. They can only substitute paper for metal with those who will take it.
It will be a "No Swan" event that occurs and later labled a black swan by someone looking for answers and or available scapegoats for the disaster...
Human Beings have evolved...we have now "perfected" control of human nature.
the 'Black Swan' callers are in a very specific catagory: those who can't see anyting coming (whack!) and always memberds of the beloved 'consensus' ..nothing like committee group-think with the rough (radical 'surprising' views) chipped away down to a mundane glob of average crone thinking to very predictibly get it wrong and be 'surprised' and 'shocked' when the Titanic strikes ice on course through iceberg alley
the Property Bubble was forseen (and forwarned) by a handful of astute observers (Peter Schiff et al)
Lehmans was forseen (and forwarned) by a handful of astutue observers (Reggie Middleton et al)
Govt and Muni debt domino debacle was forseen (and forwarned) by astute observers (Marc Faber et al)
Black Swans neatly excuse the consensus with a 'surprise' event when it was no such thing (if you look for astute people, not committees of crones or institutions which have proved themselvews worthless to listen to; vast majority of journalists; economists; ratings agencies, central banks; all and every Dept of Govt and its shills)
Govts, Central Bankers, Frank'n'Dodd, Paul Krugman, Larry Summers et al have never seen anything coming in their blinkered lives, is it any surprise they're also just as blind stupid at solving problems after the event too? ...we are 'governed' by idiots both sides of the curve
if we think the US markets are Fed rigged how come all Asian and European markets are moving in pretty much lock-step with each other?
..are all the Indexes worldwide pumped by the same central banks funny money manipulation! I agree they've all grinded up for an insanely long time, the Nasdaq has even recovered every Cent (100%) of its previous heavy drop. But given they're all doing it we must assume the investment community have now reached a state of over-confidence (delusion) which is pretty standard deviant behaviour for them down the decades
...and we know what always comes after that? Not an out of the blue shocker 'Black Swan' event but a very predictible human stampede to the Exits
Bold Glitchez!
+79
Irrational exuberance is here, and the black swan won’t be the Greek Default, it will be something much bigger, while Obama will try quick fixing the Economy, in order to win the Elections.
Irrational to some rational to others!
In the spirit of Peter King, here are three things I think I think. Apologies to those of you who see the comments section here as needing to be ____.
Although I disagree with your general all-mighty fed thesis, comment 2 is hilarious.