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Everyone Jump Back Into The Pool
With the regional banks and small caps rocketing higher, and various commodity sectors ignoring the dollar strength, the poor "Money Manglers" who cashed out early are now scratching their heads wondering whether or not to jump back into the pool.
After all, many gamers are getting jittery and do not want to wait until January to determine which sectors they need to jump in order to "make their year" in 2010.
KRE finally took off today, led by a 15%+ leap in City National Bank, which was lavished with the honor of swallowing the rotted carcass of the failed Imperial Capital Bank of La Jolla this weekend. No doubt, the FDIC must have given them a fantastic guarantee against any and all losses. Once again confirming that the Fed is the lender of first, last, and only resort.
Note the "California Center for Plastic Surgery" on the ground floor..
LOL...
And speaking of bankrupt banks, notice how the "worst of the worst" Irish Banks which were the first to come off the lows in March were v-bottomed today:
And amazingly, some commodity stocks were rocketing non-stop all day despite the continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar:
Keep an eye on the retailers to see if they break out of this range:
Watching India to see if this was a reversal play today:
And watching to see if Japan can break out to new highs and end the horrific 20-year bear market:
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Brother, jump back into the pool, get out, put on your shades, some sunscreen and enjoy the rays:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=asti,csiq,jaso,LDK,sol,solf,stp,tsl,yge,
Copenhagen is now behind us and solars are still sizzling. Those solar shorts are scrambling, nay SCRAMBLING for cover! LOL!
Yes, yes, we can see the symptoms:
1) $$ sign flashing in the unfocused eyes
2) yelling and manic laughter
Calm down or somebody will bring the straight jacket. Solar stocks will correct in due course.
I know, it's tough to admit that I made the right call on solars. Dont worry, we're still in the early stages of an explosive secular bull market. BUY, BUY, BUY as many solar stocks while you still can and don't say I didn't warn you!
Full disclosure: Despite their volatility, my long-term portfolio is made up almost exclusively of solars and every time the big hedgies manipulate these stocks lower, I just add to my positions.
February is going to be your worst month ever.
Thanks for the heads-up, I'll cash out and wait for the solar eclipse to pass through. :)
Just make sure you cash those chips in before st. valentine comes to throw them at the former hedgies living outside Tiffany's begging for wifey diamonds.
edit: and great play work on playing that sector thus far.
St-Valentine's is such a commercial holiday. And Tiffany's? Like, gag me with a silver spoon! LOL!
Wow, Leo. When did you become so annoying? I could swear you didn't used to be like this.
Let it go. Irrational exuberance. Your comments at GW's columns are missed, ML.
Leo,
You have written in these pages that your retirement account is 95% invested in solar stocks. If that is so, how are you continuing to buy more? Five percent cash is a trifling amount and DCA-ing with that 5% can't make up for the potential 10 or 20% correction to which these stocks so often succumb. Please elaborate your position for those who are trading alongside you.
Never said "95%". I invest in my tax-free RRSP, keep contributing on a monthly basis and tax-free savings account. Ok, I lied a little, since I also buy solars in my short-term trading account for "quickies". The point is that if you're relatively young, and have money to invest that you do not need any time soon, you should be building up positions in this sector. But as I have warned many times, you need to stomach extreme volatility when investing in solars, the kind that will make you puke once in a while (wild swings of 20%, 30% or even 60% are not uncommon). This is not fun for anyone, especially not for novice investors who don't know the bs manipulation going on in the background by the big hedgies. If you can ride out these dips, adding to your positions when they occur, you'll profit over the next three to five years.
Many of these solar stocks won't even exist ten years from now. And, it won't be because they get bought out, it will be because they went bankrupt.
The technologies in this space are changing rapidly and or becoming commoditized. The best alternative energy plays may not be even understood, developed, or created yet.
Just because there will be solar energy in use within human society doesn't mean stock market investors will make money on the batch of publicly traded solar stock currently in existence in this time period.
We all use the internet ferociously everyday. Did any internet companies go bankrupt?
Leo, my bad. I attached a mental number to "almost exclusively". I tend to interpret exclusively as "undivided" or "complete". It appears I succumbed to the old rhetorical flourish of adding a quantitative modifier to an absolute. Still I'd be curious as to what "almost exclusively" is in Kolivakis filth gear speak.
excerpt from: "The Great Unwinding" by Leo Kolivakis, posted 12/5/09:
"I happen to agree that energy and IT will outperform in 2010 but my long-term portfolio remains almost exclusively weighted in Chinese solar stocks as this is the area where I see a long-term secular bull market developing."
If your portfolio is almost
exclusively solar stocks then you,
my friend, have gone full retard.
If your portfolio is almost
exclusively solar stocks then you,
my friend, have gone full retard.
Really like Japan here..they have started to , but will officially devalue the Yen(soon) Fxy breaking down.EWJ should breakout.They have been in REHAB for 20 years.A place that everyone else needs to go.Lows arent made over a weekend March 6-9 , they take years.
Also like the Solars...
Jones Lang-LaSalle gaps away to new highs.....
Poor Raj is sitting in jail watching his most favorite gambling chip rocket to new highs:
LOL, and watch the USD make new 52-week highs:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=USD&t=1y
BREAKOUT THE CHIPS!
Leo what do you think of Garth Turner's latest
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/12/18/2010/
Interesting comment. Hope he's wrong but fear he's right.
AMD is awesome, it's worth at least $12.
Everyone's concern was that AMD couldn't get production up in time to pay the debt.
They got the production problem fixed AND Intel gave them 1.6B if I recall correctly.
If you cannot see that the fundamentals of the company improved, you shouldn't invest in it.
By my count, the S&P has traded between 1085 and 1115 for 29 straight trading days. Not sure what to make of that. If everything is as good as they want us to believe, shouldn't we have broken out to the upside?
This lack of volatility really sucks. I agree we need a breakout of this range, either way, who cares.
As for IRE, well GoldmanSquid upgraded them to a Buy on Dec 2 when it was $8.10 so maybe they got tired of being embarassed so they told Sergey's replacement to hit the gas.
Not to worry if you're going back in, these lifeguards will protect you, one of 'em has no problem floating;
http://joymachine.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451bf9f69e201156fcd2a90970b-800wi
"If everything is as good as they want us to believe, shouldn't we have broken out to the upside?"
SPY 666 to 1120 is pricing in at least some "pretty good". The "pre-crash" of 2007 topping pattern lasted about 14 months.
The title of this article is a call to Main Street who is still sitting on the side lines - "come on in the water's great"
Small caps on the brink. On the brink of what I don't know. It appears close to a bullish breakout, and razor thin volumes would support this. The bear in me says we almost always have complete wave 2 retraces before collapse however, and we do not yet have new highs on the R2K.
When I find logic in your comment that a breakout to new highs will be on razor thin volumes, I suspect the top is in. To speak of breakouts on no volume is lunacy and appropriate for this propped market where a company like AA with no operating earnings is upgraded. Last quarter AA beat by selling assets. WTF are they going to do this quarter ?.
Nikki.
The Irish banks fell today because of comments by the new Irish central bank governer that they were "friendless" and hinting that they will slowly be nationalised.
This new guy seems to be of a higher calibre then the previous cretin and may decide to end this macarbe game of pass the parcel on Dublins ISEQ.
Wow.
That Japanese model's name is Fuk-u-oka(y)?
Say it out loud....
Domo Arrigato, Mr. Roboto-Trader!
Your Chinese cookie fortune = "Your powers of observations will take you a long way"
Looks like no one wants to declare a short position at year-end...
ZLC
TA
Long Jan/Feb AIG puts for a month now. The water is quite nice. However, quite crowded. Also, long Jan SPY puts. GS is probably getting a good laugh up in their ivory tower on that call.
This market reminds me of the frog in the boiling pot scenario. Being long/short the market has definitely helped me sleep sound at night. Granted, not too great for getting exponential returns like the long-only crowd.
I'm continually amazed at the Exchange's ability to create an alternative reality. On Sept. 22, the S&P 500 closed at 1071. Now, three months later, it's at 1114, a 4% gain. However, the media would have us think stocks have skyrocketed during that time, making billionaires out of everyone who's been in the market.