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Everyone Loves Stocks: Like 1999
Despite the horrific tech stock crash of 2001-2002, and the greatest crash in our generation in 2008, people still love to chase stocks, no matter what. And like dirty old men, they always go back to the same old hookers over and over again....
Sorry, I've been locked away on a project in an office with no wireless, the Robo updates might be sporadic....
First thing I saw as some huge moves in these tech plays, amazing how people still love to chase stocks after two of the greatest bear markets of all time.
Right out of the box, some of these stocks took off like an Shanghai bottlerocket, with Google getting the "holeshot" of the day:
All I can say is that these types of moves are going to bring the retail investor out in droves, particularly when they hear that their unemployed friends are making vast fortunes daytrading these Nasdaq stocks, even after they are up 200% - 300% off the lows.
Reminds me of the heady days of 1999:
Fight Club
Spice Girls
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Scary spice.
Speaking of fight club ...how about Mike Vick's pregame disaster. Quotes like,"whats this loser doing on my team" don't help the cause. I wanna be trunked with the spiced muffins
I hope Vick drops dead.
vick needs to be euthanized.
I knew it was all bullshit in 2000 when I saw the secretaries running down to the local E-Trade office to deposit checks before 4pm so they could make their latest margin call.
I haven't quite seen that yet, or gotten stock tips from cab drivers, but it's gotta be right around the corner!
I protest! I never go back to the same old hookers!
I protest too! I dont go to old hookers at all!
People remember 99 for $30 stocks going to $100. The moves are actually bigger and faster now its just that the prices are more single digit type stuff so not as impressive. With afew exceptions like GOOG & AMZN of course.
My first trade ever was 1000 shares of AMZN in 98 at 4.20. I saw the bubble and took it for a ride.
GOOG & AMZN are nothing... if you wanna get the taxi cab drivers and secretaries (and the pool boy) excited, just tell them to look at CAR and DTG in the YTD for 2009...
They'll steal a car in order to get to the local E-Trade!
Good analogies. Specially the hooker one =)
Exactly.
The first thing that crossed my mind was "I don't know much about investing but the thing about hookers makes sense"
The Spice Girls do not count as one of your normal images, RT.
Google's market cap makes zero sense, much less the others.
WTF is happening in afterhours?
The 3rd letter of your question.
Ah yes....the dotcom bubble.
When sheeple bought cool names like Gadzooks at 50 bucks with no earnings. Anything that sounded stupid like Google didn't even need to have an understandable business model. The next Google just needed a silly name.
Glorious times.
I had (no longer have) a young doctor friend who during 98 and 99 had one word any time you talked investments.
Cisco.
He had grown his $250,000 investment into $2.2 Million by putting everything on red (Cisco) and keeping it there.
Of course, you know the end of the story. I begged him on numerous occasions to take out the original $250,000 and set it aside and play with the houses money.
But he was a genius and I was but a fool. You know what happened to Cisco after the bubble crashed. I and his other friends felt bad for him and while we tried to talk to him and tell him it was OK but he couldn't deal with it.
He was so humiliated and embarrassed by his own greed and stupidity that he left his group practice, sold his home and moved to another state. Now that's an emotional cripple for you.
Your parable sums up the 99's perfectly...I knew the party was over when a friend who didn't even understand what a mutual fund was (I gave him a quick tutorial) was spouting Cisco too....
My brother's brother in law worked for a dot bomb back in '99. He retired at 30 when his stock options vested and he was worth about $3 million. He was a low level manager. He spoke casually about buying a boat and sailing around the world with his young family.
Year later, he spoke of sailing around the world when his stock recovered.
Six months later, he was looking for a $25k year job to feed his family.
How typical was this story??
As our favorite TV personality Jim Cramer says: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. Got to admit, there is wisdom in those words.
ubs trying to throw water on the bank party.
October 7, 2009 6:12 PM EDT
UBS has initiated coverage on the large regional banking sector today, slapping a Cautious rating on the group. The firm believes that these stocks "have run too fast" recently.
Started at Neutral:
Started at Sell:
deadhead here, not UBS: in fairness to presenting both sides of the issue (i already spoke today about my new favorite sell side analyst, Chief Equity Strategist pumper, David Bianco of BAC/ML) I would like to reiterate that Jim Cramer has a buy on CIT.
You won't see any of that nonsense highlighted by the MSM tomorrow...they only cover upgrades. Stick with the program.
Nice post Robo! One of the salesmans used to say of the trade shows: "Free beer, free food, life is good". Seems to me that psychology pretty well describes WallSt, except, its "Free money, flash trades, life is good"... O, and BTW, nice avatar too...
Sara Evans is still hot as hell, Robo. Mindy's a basketcase. Greetings from Music City!
Becks was duped, the dumb London boy...
The greenback is going down faster than a cokeslut on a bankster - rahmp it up!
Yeah, I don't get it. This post, I mean. I don't get the post. What is the point of this post? What point are you trying to make? Are you trying to point out something that anybody with 2 eyes can't already see for themselves? ("The market is over-valued/going-up-too-far-too-fast?" Wow, now THERE'S an original thought!) Are the charts supposed to lend some gravitas to whatever point it is your trying to make? Like, "Ohhh, fancy.... uhhh, charts." Or was this all just a lame excuse to get to use the line about dirty old men and hookers? (Which, by the way, wasn't funny.) I don't mean to be an asshole. But, seriously, what the fuck is the point of this post?
You talk about your "updates." As if we all sit here in breathless anticipation waiting for you to post charts of what we've already been looking at all day. You don't add any insight. It'd be one thing if once in a while you maybe were able to give a heads-up that these charts you relentlessly post lead you to believe the stock in question is going to make a move one way or another. But you never do; all you ever do is... post charts AFTER the fact, as if to say nothing other than: look at this. Period. What a waste of time.
Oh, and, incidentally, on top of it all, this particular post really does make NO sense:
"First thing I saw as some huge moves in these tech plays, amazing how people still love to chase stocks after two of the greatest bear markets of all time."
Did you mean to write, "First thing I saw WAS some huge moves in these tech plays?" And, if there was a semi-colon after the 1st part of the sentence, instead of a comma, then maybe it'd make a little sense. But, once again, the 2nd part of the sentence makes even less sense in relation to the 1st - did you mean to write, "... chase THE SAME stocks...?" Even if that were your intention, it's not like it's some blinding epiphanic realization.
I feel like the pictures of women and the charts and what-not are just an attempt to deflect notice of the lack of sense in your posts.
Solly, Charlie - Epic Fail.
"I feel like the pictures of women and the charts and what-not are just an attempt to deflect notice of the lack of sense in your posts."
That was deep bro, nice use of "what-not" to deflect notice of your glaring paucity of insight.
Sure looks like you were waiting around for Robo's post just to sling some unfounded vitriol at him. So why did you read and reply? Oh yeah I forgot, you're a dick
vicelord: If you don't like Robo's posts, then don't read them bonehead.
When a major crash occurs (1987,2000,2008 and maybe 1990 Japan), pundits tend to remark that "this will turn investors off the market forever". And with the exception of Japan (nineteen years and counting), this has never been the case. It's thrice burned, still not shy. I believe that was RT's point and the comments and charts are merely a way to illustrate the action and probably represent RT's incredulousness.
While I happen to follow the market closely and view many of the same charts RT posts real time, many folks on this side probably do not, so perhaps they benefit from his selection and postings.
There's something for everybody on this site, though probably not everything for everybody. The number of comments and the eyeballs RT draws indicates that he has a sizeable audience. I'm one of the crowd.
The market keeps moving up, and while it continues doing so, it makes sense to be in. But when the tide turns (and you'll know it through market timing systems raising flags) watch out below!
I think Robo is a great observer and articulator of the obsurd. People might confuse his posts as trivial observations, but in that act they demonstrate just how unique an awareness such as Robo's is. All of the contributers on this site and the others like it 'get it'.
It is the observation that one should stay in/buy/sell that is short sighted. I hope everyone on this site makes money, but more importantly I hope they become aware that they are witnessing the most avoidable collapse of a nation in all of history.
I don't mean to single you out, but there are so many posts out there that are mistaking this site as information for trading purposes. No, the information is for you, the person behind the computer monitor.
Keep up the great posts RobotTrader.
It is 'obsurd' you think it's spelled with an 'O'. Looks like the sun is starting to fry your brain...I'd drop down closer to sea level.
I both enjoy and wait for RobotTrader's posts. The one the other day about the migrating animals and the Goldman crocodiles was especially enjoyable. For guys like me who work long days and like to do some trading for fun, a summary of interesting chart action is nice.
"People might confuse his posts as trivial observations, but in that act they demonstrate just how unique an awareness such as Robo's is."
Uhhh, excuse me? That makes about as much sense as one of his posts. In fact,...
-2
Isn't there only one h in uh? Or do you stutter?
Vice - What say you - where are you in all this and what is your contribution?
vicelord - Just start reading RT's posts? Maybe you missed the recent one about the wildebeest crossing the river full of crocodiles as an analogy for the day's market action?
That was art, and hilarious, and said more than 10,000 graphs could.
So, different strokes for different folks. Reading these posts is not compulsory.
Now, I might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer; or the brightest bulb in the lamp. And I might not have a double digit IQ like some of the brighter folks around here. In fact, I don’t know my ass from a hole in the ground. Hell, I can’t even tie my own shoes! I don’t know a damned thing about the markets, and I couldn’t care less -- I work at the carnival as “JoJo the Dog Faced Boy“!
But, due in no small part to this site, there are three things I do know:
1) Gold is going to $1,000,000,000 an ounce.
2) Some fellow named Goldman Sachs was on the grassy knoll.
3) Stock charts, old hookers, wildebeests, and chick pics are never trivial or pointless!
The market serves to maximise the number of idiots at the table. Buy side types are forced to spend the cash they get in to their funds. Supposedly astute investors get short to early and are forced to cover in shame. My guess is there is still a mountain of money waiting to get in. I'll sell when hedge funds start making headlines again - by imploding on their shorts.
As a grizzled coverage trader told me twenty years ago, "Don't let 'em scare you out of your longs". And, of course, "don't fight the tape".
I'm guessing that Vicelord is either Felix Salmon or a GS lackey.
From cbsmarketsplatch:
Yes - the mood is indeed like 1999. But this time it is different, because the rats have immunity. I know, because I read it on the interweb just this morning.
It's the Credit Default Swaps - in the "olden" days GS would have to watch carefully for a market downturn and unload their stocks before they lose their shirts.
Now, with derivatives, they can hum a merry tune and watch these junk positions collapse and still make back their loses from the derivatives coverage.
This is a game changing outcome and may shape all of our future views of how the market move in rallies... then again maybe not... it might all backfire brutally on them (and us??)
OK, assume the folks at GS aren't the only smart guys and gals at the table. If they are all smart, then presumably they are hedged to the downside. Who pays off when the market goes down? Oh, right! John and Jane Q. Public, who else? No doubt, we're gonna get boned again.
Ah yes '99. Every jackass was an expert. The active traders generally got decimated. I saw accounts; at least 99 out of 100 got killed including industry pros like investment bankers. Meanwhile, the 1 successful person out of 100 or 1000 turned 40 grand into $120 gazillion.
Buy and holders were definitely the most arrogant and saw the most personal damage. They were the ones that moved the market with their hefty investments in AIM growth funds, internet funds and Cisco and Yahoo shares. The doctor story was on par. I keep thinking of my dad that got loaded up on tech at the behest of his totally brilliant wirehouse brokers in mid '99. Keep in mind that his previous investments were in conservative stalwarts like utilities. Things went well, visions of retirement in Florida were told in conversations and then he went through a divorce in the fall of 2000 where funds were frozen. I rememeber talking to him in early 2001 and him asking how low I thought Nasdaq would go. I said 1500 and he laughed at me still drunk on the garbage his advisors were pumping intraveniously.
The retail daytraders coming back would be a blip. The buy and holders coming back would be far more significant, but many are "out of the market for good."
It does feel like 99 again. There's one additional aspect of it. We have Cramer every evening brainwashing the uneducated masses looking for easy money without the work. These people probaby consider themselves sophisticated investors right now and buying everything Cramers says. That in addition to equally dumb financial advisors who believe in one thing: over time stocks go up and for that reason one should not do any market timing and sell. These advisors have no clue about modern aspects of markets but yet they claim to be experts with access to great resources. I have that acces too. It's called my brokerage account.
Robo, gotta luv your writing style... reminds me of wndysrf, from doc's old site
@ #92863
I've long considered my dad to be the ultimate contrarian indicator. He's a late adapter that is overly occupied with status and synthesizes 100% of information through a prism of other peoples' opinion. In addition, he believes in cliches, generalities, themes, etc. Most are at least a generation outdated if not always fiction. For example, my dad would believe that relative success equals competence in unrelated disciplines. ie. Stock brokers know their salt and can predict the future because they work in wood paneled and marbled offices and make lots of money. Similarly, because a market guru is on TV he or she is an expert and should be heeded instead of someone without a conflict of interest.
Everyone should find such an excellent contrarian expert. Countless market tops have been predicted. God bless him!
Good stuff robottrader aka t1000 heh heh