Everything Old Is (Really Not) New Again
By Marla Singer and Geoffrey Batt
Everything old is new again. Except... not really. Go back, for instance, to September 1974.
Black and white television is not, as it happens, new again. True, Steve Jobs is already wearing black turtleneck and glasses, but he's named William Simon. A Secretary of the Treasury rejecting a loose monetary policy: not new again. Alan Greenspan describing lower interest rates as a short-term fix and inflation as "here to stay?" Definitely not new again. Appealing to the housewife (then the key consumer force in the economy)? Very very dated and prone to get you sued to boot. The idea that the administration cannot do much about worker layoffs ("just ride it out folks!")? Ancient history. An economist refusing to speculate on how much higher unemployment would go? Did that ever really happen? (Yeah, it's at 2:24 min in the video).
Well, maybe that video is just too old to have anything that's new again. How about some newer old that's new again? How about March 1982?
Jane Pauley kinda hot in a massive white collar? Yeah, not so much anymore. (The collar or Jane Pauley). The Great Depression as a romantic newsreel fantasy? Ok, no chance of that being a fad again. Odds of depression: "1 in 10?" No revival in that sort of prediction. Paul Volcker in position of real authority? Right. Once you smiled next to the podium a few times, you'll get your dead-end tax advisory board position and like it, Volckster. Administration official even using word "depression" in public? Certainly, still ancient. No revival of that habit. Deep voiced, deep joweled, fat men even permitted to testify on the administration's behalf in front of Congress? Was that only 27 years ago? Wow. New England and California leading the country? Yeah, that's not back yet. Recessions self-correcting? Riiiiight. Depression caused by high interest rates? So quaint! Paper cutout animations? Ok, that one's back. (South Park). Cutting spending to get economy back on track? Wow, were you born in the Roosevelt administration or something? The first Roosevelt administration?
(8 votes)
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on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:18
#126692
God damn, were things really that bad back in the 80s?
I am Chumbawamba.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:48
#126769
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.- A Tale of Two Cities
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:16
#126841
The Wallstreet Journal is giving out Chumbawamba advice. Check it out:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870401300457451804084837726...
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 06:24
#126890
Doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Ted approach is the sensible one in this day and age. Integrity doesn't buy you anything anymore. Neither does a good credit score. For the last couple of decades the stupid finance industry has turned the FICO score into a substitute for your conscience. Don't fuck up your credit or your FICO score will drop! Pay your bills on time! Don't max out your cards! Don't carry too high a balance! Don't carry too low a balance! Don't pay off your credit lines too fast! Your entire existence has been rendered down to one 3-digit number that determines your worth in life as a entity that can be exploited for finance charges.
Fuck That Noise.
Max out those credit cards, buy the essential stuff, plow a good chunk into gold and silver and guns and ammo, and then default.
I am Chumbawamba.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:02
#126913
Dude, I know you're going to think I'm crazy, but buy someone their farm back. We've got the influence of quadrillions of dollars on this site. Some of you out there have gamed the system to your profit. Buy someone their farm back from the bank and just give it to them. We're loosing the back bone of America. A few hundred thousand dollars will return some multi generational family' farmstead. For what your suggesting here, to charge up your cards and buy gold? Someone out their has a credit limit that could return America's soul to those that deserve it. You're going to end up with gold or something material that will just get stolen from you, or pulled from your dead body when you start shooting. Charge your cards to their limit, find a farm auction in say Iowa, buy the original farmstead, and give it back to the ones that got America here. And in addition to buying some insurance for your soul, you'd be guaranteeing your family an income of food for a long time.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:54
#126945
Sorry Chum, but integrity is worth something only to people who have it. People who don't have it always undervalue it. I don't expect you to understand, because your comment suggests you don't have it. You can't understand. Maybe someday you will.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:52
#127274
A cheap crook is a cheap crook and always has been and always will be,its just rationalization on his part, notice how happy he is talking about his rip off schemes.
p.s You can also face fraud charges if it is determined that you deliberately ran up your credit to game a bankruptcy
Do the right thing!
Waldo
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:19
#126924
In the old days it would have been assumed that there was a toasty spot in hell for Ted, and this would have been a huge motivation for him to live up to his obligations.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:57
#126947
Just because that sort of thinking is out of vogue doesn't mean that it still isn't true. What's integrity worth? I don't know, but there's something very special about saying that I do what I say I'm going to do. It sounds a lot better than he fucked me so I fucked him back.
The thing is, as most of us get older we begin to realize what total jackasses we were when we were younger. Things you did that didn't bother you then tend to bother you now. Something to think about as you game the system. You can run, but it'll find you.
Someday.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:37
#127253
Integrity is a luxury we have given up in this country. Helping your fellow man is no longer a prudent measure - it's dog eat dog by god, bought to you courtesy of almost 40 years of greed, corruption, and government growth. Once we moved off gold in '71, it has been all about excesses and profits. It's way too late in the game to care about your fellow man. Best to care of those you love and have strong ties with. Watch Detroit closely. If you decide to buy someone a farm thereabouts, better take a gun with you. No good deed goes unpunished. And, if the US dollar should actually collapse, you may find yourself in a world of hurt. Have you ever seen the movie Platoon? A great scene in this movie:
Don't be a crusader, Dude.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:51
#126942
No they weren't that bad, but newspeople have always been newspeople. They take a story and beat on it and it becomes bigger than it is. There is no comparison between the 1980s and now. They are two fundamentally different problems.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:32
#126706
5.4% unemployment! Things were rocking back then...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:34
#126708
Wait wait wait, Cutting spending to get economy back on track? They are spending like there is no tomorrow. The unemployed might as well be on government salaries. Healthcare for everyone? So if cutting spending is supposed to help and increased spending is supposed to help, what does this tell you? Correct, crap happens no matter what is done.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:28
#126761
Actually, they basically ARE on Government salaries, but I mean lets not get too technical here...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:35
#126710
Well now I'm depressed...
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 05:21
#126880
Don't be depressed, look at the humor that abounds. Why, this was on the Bloomberg.com front page 30 minutes ago....
“I believe deeply that it’s very important to the United States, to the economic health of the United States, that we maintain a strong dollar,” Geithner told reporters in Tokyo today.
And when I looked for it again, it was gone. Timmy must have had a change of heart.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:40
#126722
They had color television in '74. John Chancellor was actually Black and White in real life.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:54
#127277
True what he's saying, most young people are not aware of this fact
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:40
#126723
Is it just me or is Volcker testifying before the Senate with a lit cigar in his hand! Man, the good ol' days
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:51
#126730
Greenie - "But if it occurs, it is already too late to do something... in other words the structure is in place, and it is vulnerable, and something will happen, and we won't know what it was until after it has happened."
Great... guess what...
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:56
#126736
I forget now; was Greenspan part of the Ostridgian School of Economics?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:50
#126852
I don't know Ostridgian, but Greenspan was the "official cunnilingus offer-er" in the Rand Dynasty. He has since sold out to a higher and more moral ground.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 07:35
#126906
The Randian fluffer?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:08
#126919
Fluffers give head, not face.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:18
#126923
lol..
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:57
#127285
Link please!
As long as the link contains absolutely no grapghic depictions of any kind for the obvious reasons
TIA
Waldo
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:54
#126734
Debt levels were only moderately high in the 70's and 80's. Nothing like an expansion of credit to get the economy humming again.
This time, methinks not so much.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:58
#126738
"There is nothing Government can do about it..."
This coming from Greenspan about inflation and unemployment?
My, how times have changed.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:08
#126746
Here's what Greenspan had to say about gold way back in caveman times. Try not to faint:
The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which -- through a complex series of steps -- the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/greenspan.html
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 05:18
#126879
Thank you for this Greenspan quote Isbumblebee, I was debating Hansel on another post and here you drop a quote that says just what I said, "The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets."
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:08
#126745
Is this really ancient history to you guys?
I remember Chancellor replaced Huntley Brinkley...
Irving R. Levine was the Jim Cramer financial reporter of his day.Too bad the clip did not go to his signature sign off.
Flamboyanrt, snappy dresser with the bow tie, falically challenged like our cow bell ringing CNBC dipshit... only things is, Irving knew what he was talking about.
Forget Simon... I remember Earl Butz Secretary of Ag.
Big Paulie Volker. Crank that fed funds rate up to 20% and squeeze the falluja out of goddamn inflation...
Marla is that Jane Pauly or you in your Doonesbury college days? Your pics look awfully similar...
I remember all that like it was yesterday... Loius Rukeyser on yet?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:18
#126750
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 10:50
#127066
Yeah but Rukeyser and Irving R Levine were the only financial guys on tv in the 70s pre cable days...
Rukeyser with his phony leather couch round table discussions, Wall Street as British Banker Club days...
Trust me, my high school days were something out of "That 70s Show." I remember all this... sort of...
Then when Rukeyser was on vacation who was the guy, Frank Calpella? would sit in?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:25
#126791
Talk about a trip in the "way-back" machine. I'll tell you guys how old I am, I voted for Nixon! THAT'S scary.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:43
#126849
Earl Butz could spin his words with the best of them. Remember his comment about the Pope's admonition about the use of condoms?
"He no play-a the game, he no make-a the rules."
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:22
#126752
Louis Rukeyser in '87
before the crash
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34
and after the crash
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFn1G2goDQw
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 06:33
#126893
Wow. It's amazing what I overlooked in my ignorant youth. That is one of the most unsuccessful comb-overs I've ever witnessed on public television.
I am Chumbawamba.
on Sun, 11/15/2009 - 07:25
#131108
Anyone remember public television?... yea that was awesome. Back when a channel could sell itself just for some donations. Lawl.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:28
#126760
and the Nightly Business Report from 87 with a quick appearance by Kudlow as an expert guest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5ILBwQ-gW8
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:44
#126771
I used to watch Rukeyser with my dad... not that I knew what it was about, just watched whatever dad was watching. I do remember when he passed, though... some of the eulogies written by colleagues and competitors were awesome.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:53
#126775
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:36
#126795
Ok but can i borrow money for a house and a car and a chainsaw on 4 easy pay payments andt THEN buy stocks with unborrowed money? LOL
I like the blessing in disguise but I'm confused. Do you wear the disguised blessing costume on halloween or christmas? Can I open up a unibomber store and sell hooded sweatshirts and bombs undre the guise of it being a blessing disguise store? I love that wacky wacky good stuff. Always dressing up as something horrible and TRICKING us into it's blessing!!!
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:33
#126830
Mabe if Ben spoke__real__slow__too__every__thing__would__be__ok__.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 06:37
#126895
You also need to add a nasal quality and raise your voice an octave so you sound appropriately old-timey.
I am Chumbawamba.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:54
#126854
Nice Robo. How do you find this treif?
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:57
#126777
Great animation about what causes a depression, it looked just like "school house rock" from Saturday morning cartoons.
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:40
#126803
"Simon said"
on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:57
#126815
Hot damn, 5.4% unemployment
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:18
#126840
Talk of depressions at the end of the bear market in 82 : a classic contrarian indicator to go long.
And there have been many contrarian indicators of a topping market over the past couple of years...
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:24
#126843
I'm oooooold! And I'm not happy! And I don't like things now compared to the way they used to be. All this "progress" -- phooey! In my day, we didn't have these cash machines that would give you money when you needed it. There was only one bank in each state -- it was open only one hour a year. And you'd get in line, seventeen miles long, and the line became an angry mob of people -- fornicators and thieves, mutant children and circus freaks -- and you waited for years and by the time you got to the teller, you were senile and arthritic and you couldn't remember your own name. You were born, got in line, and you died! And that's the way it was and we LIKED it!
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 02:42
#126863
Don't forget to note the painfully obvious comparison of today's Health Care bill with that of The Great Society ... 1966 Inflation Adjusted Peak in the DJIA and the 1968 Nominal High for the broader equity markets via the Wilshire 5K.
"history never repeats itself; but it often rhymes." - twain
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 06:50
#126898
Quicktime? That is just wrong.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 06:56
#126899
Interesting viewing the Sept 1974 clip where Greenspan is presumably talking the conventional wisdom of the day, i.e. the American people are cutting back on purchases because of higher prices.
Well it did not take the American people too long (about 4 years) to figure out that if inflation is persistent, it makes more sense to borrow and buy all you can because with inflation 1) you can pay back what you borrow with cheaper dollars and 2) what you buy today will just be more expensive tomorrow.
By the early 1980's, inflation made any long term investment extremely risky, no one could adequately assess the return on investment with the uncertain affects of inflation. Hence Volcker and the 20 percent Fed Funds rate (a result of the Fed targeting the money supply) and the clip of the deeper recession of 1982.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 08:37
#126930
My award would got to Buffalo Springfields, Stop children, whats that sound, everybody look whats going down. Marla should have a back to the late 60's nite. Probably crash the server.
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:18
#126968
Remember how Reagan used to hold all those press conferences and blame the previous administration for the mess he inherited?
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 11:06
#127082
Remember how Obama used to hold all those press conferences and blame the previous administration for the mess he inherited?
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was...
I think Madison Ave slick Alzheimer's puppet Reagan and Madison Ave slick Obama have more in common than we realize...
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 11:53
#127123
The left < >right paradigm is a fraud....
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:32
#127249
It got even better on, well, November 5th, 1999, with repeal of Glass-Steagall, herewith following the NYT article on same, with celebratory comments by Larry Summers of a new era dawning for American business competitivness..
CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/05/business/congress-passes-wide-ranging-...
''Today Congress voted to update the rules that have governed financial services since the Great Depression and replace them with a system for the 21st century,'' Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers said. ''This historic legislation will better enable American companies to compete in the new economy.''
[um, yep....sure...that'll fix it all up..]
Today's action followed a rich Congressional debate about the history of finance in America in this century, the causes of the banking crisis of the 1930's, the globalization of banking and the future of the nation's economy
[as Sundance said, "You just keep thinkin', Butch...It's what yer good at."]
In the House debate, Mr. Leach said, ''This is a historic day. The landscape for delivery of financial services will now surely shift.''
[careful what you ask you, buddy...]
''I think we will look back in 10 years' time and say we should not have done this but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930's is true in 2010,'' said Senator Byron L. Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota.
['nuff said..]
Senator Paul Wellstone, Democrat of Minnesota, said that Congress had ''seemed determined to unlearn the lessons from our past mistakes.''
[R.I.P. Paul Wellstone -- you are missed]
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 15:32
#127447
Marla I kinda wanted to see Khadafy on oil
on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 20:09
#127835