Excelsia's Cliff Draughn Goes In Search Of Your Sleeping Point

Tyler Durden's picture

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vote_libertarian_party's picture

So is there some reason why the peaks occured late June 2009, late December 2009, late June 2010?

Is this when leasing decisions need to be made so the suppliers jack up rates knowing when the buyers are caught in a crunch? 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I've nurtured a similar long standing theory that oil prices move the same way, up just before long term contracts are signed/renewed, back down afterward. There can be a "conspiracy" among producers without a single word being exchanged between any of them. Since they all work in the same field, attend the same conferences, the executives and other personel move between the various companies, it's not surprising they would act in concert without overt collusion.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

(I was speaking about BDIY)

stickyfingers's picture

"Fair value on the S&P for me is 950, which would indicate another 7% decline in stock prices from here."

Markets always over shoot the mark, on the upside as well as the downside.

Mercury's picture

Our focus is to preserve wealth by controlling our exposure to risk assets...

Great, bigger downside risk in this environment than upside.  No news to this choir. So what is your favorite store of value then? What asset isn't a risk asset these days?  $Cash is king I guess.

Another prominent plug for that Reinhart/Rogoff book I see.  Gonna have to check that out.  I like the sweeping historical analysis stuff.

Kind of funny - if you read this off the Excelsia site the B-berg screenshots are a bit bigger and you can see Dick Mayo (GMO founder) shooting him a message.

jaiball's picture

Or, as one of my clients stated recently, “Cliff, I do not want to go back to eating spam.” We are here to make sure your investment process protects against the spam effect.

Dude, whats so wrong with spam?

Kobe Beef's picture

Dude, Spam is made of people meat! They started doing it first in the former Yugoslavia, then Somalia, Iraq. hahaha Just Joking, Dude

 

Excellent Article! Thanks, ZH!

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