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Exclusive: 4 Dealers Respond With "$1+ Trillion" To Fed Reverse Inquiry Into How Much QE2 Is Necessary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we made a big stink over the Fed's reverse inquiry into the PD community over how much QE2 it should launch. Today, we find out what the distribution is: as Merrill's Harley Bassman points out: "Four dealers are predicting a $1+ Trillion buy program." It is good to finally know what the bogey is.

From Harley Bassman's note, just distributed to clients:

I was feeling just fine about the world today.....until I was handed a survey of dealer opinions about next week's QE2 event (aka the FOMC meeting).

Four dealers are predicting a $1+ Trillion buy program with a smattering of $900bn and $600bn votes tossed in.   This would not have bothered me too much if not for the revelation today that the FED was asking dealer opinions.

This reminds me of how I tell my kids that our family is a democracy: They each have one vote.......and I have five !!!  Why is the FED asking ??

They are supposed to already have the answer.     

The result:
              std px   Nvol    breakeven          Terminal Breakeven      Sep 28 Low
 FVZ        1-00     97nv   +/- 23½bp        T5yr ~~  1.01%  to  1.48%     1.10%
 TYZ        2-02    126nv   +/- 27½bp       T10y ~~  2.39%  to  2.94%     2.39%
 USZ        4-00    131nv   +/- 28½bp       T30y ~~  3.76%  to  4.33%     3.66%

Considering the uncertainty, I would NOT call these options rich. Two points for at one month straddle on TYZ is a much better long than short.

Keep in mind this is a number most likely over a 6 month period. Double for full year impact.

At this point, if the Fed does something so stupid as demonstrating independence (whether from D.C. or the primary dealers), and does not announce $1 bn in QE2, well... welcome back gravity.

 

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Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:42 | 684012 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If they are mumbling about $1T, then it will really be $2T. Since my wife tells me I tend to underestimate things, I'll amend that to $3T. GS was hinting as high as $4T so that's maybe the high end, but not out of the ball park.

Ah fuggit. We are so screwed.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:10 | 684132 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Nobody, and I mean nobody, is stopping to consider what the JCS & military industrial suppliers have to say about a strong vs weak dollar policy. On & on the finblogs go on about the Fed, bankers, Wall St, ad infinitum, without regard to the fact that the USA has national security goals centered around military control of ME oil supplies.

If these mission objectives can be satisfied with a weak dollar, then there isn't any theoritical limit to printing - just fire away at will. However, I find this extremely difficult to believe, if for no other reason that the $USD is not just a means of exchange/unit of account but a fucking store of value.

So, I ask once again, can the USA achieve its national security objectives, which includes NOT fighting other resource intensive wars occurring due to pissed off/aggrieved creditors, with a weak dollar policy?

If not, then all this talk about QE is just a massive waste of electrons firing through space.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:52 | 684330 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

B9K9,

I appreciate that you keep reminding me about the geopolitical and military variables to the puzzle. As much a I agree with you, it seems that the military is either sidelined or keeping quiet for a reason. We haven't heard much from them since admiral Mullen went off about the national debt in August. It appears that Bernanke listens to the bankers 1st and everyone else 2nd.

Some might argue that the U.S. empire has crumbled much faster than the military would have ever expected. Maybe they're not throwing a hissy fit over QE because it might allow for a more controlled crash vs. a collapse. 

If the military and ME oil are paramount, why are they letting Ben loose? Does the military take orders from the banks or vice-versa?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:19 | 684693 zaknick
zaknick's picture

The banks own everything including the pentagon. How do I know? look at who Robert Gates is and where he came from. Hint: he's a Bush stooge from the CIA as Ray McGovern, his boss at one time and outspoken critic of the CIA banksters, wrote a while ago on www.consortiumnews.com.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:22 | 684698 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

the $USD is not just a means of exchange/unit of account but a fucking store of value.

Those who believe and act as if that were true will providing appropriated value that transfers through QE2.  This is not an accidental side-effect--this is exactly the purpose.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:33 | 684789 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

+31.1034  Got to get your mind right in order to Fight the Fed

The Reichsbank shamelessly punked the holders of the freaking War Bonds, just to make sure that the military wasn't the only losers of the war. What are you holding that will punk you from the lost War on Terror/Drugs/Poverty?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:30 | 684865 Korg
Korg's picture

That's right...nobody is thinking about the US military...as in coup!  Mullen floated a warning in August about money printing and it just was ignored. Come to think about it, if the military took over the govt, banksters, etc. and righted the wrongs and reset this country back to a sustainable level it might be a good thing. We need another MacArthur to kickass and take names, bring the elite to their knees, and right the ship of state. It worked for Japan....

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:51 | 684891 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

Your theory implies that there is some sort of comprehensive plan or that the military can supplant the laws of economic reality.  Not so.  This is a bunch of powerful dogs (various special interests) fighting over a too small scrap of meat (the productive, tax paying class of US citizens), and the US military industrial complex is just one of these dogs.  We will leave the ME the same way the soviets did and for the same reasons - bankruptcy.  We will leave our tanks and our buildings to rust there just as they did.  Look at Rome, it was the same.  Look at the British Empire, it was the same.  Military overstretch is the classic end of all empires and is usually combined with some sort of welfare-state at home.  This is the end game for the US empire and there is no plan, only a schizophrenic combination of hubris and desperation.  All nations fall in the end for the same reason, the system of wealth redistribution from the working class to the parasitic class becomes unsustainable and the whole thing falls apart.  Socialism, communism, capitalism, fascism, feudalism, democracy blah blah...  These terms are rendered meaningless as the nations which own the term change underneath them over the decades.  The "capitalist" America of the revolution is unrecognizable from the America of today - nevertheless the masses use the same words to describe it.  But the principle that never changes is that all these systems of wealth redistribution collapse when they become unsustainable.  We have reached that point.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:01 | 684997 thermroc
thermroc's picture

Maybe the JCS have been clued in on a strategy. Maybe it's their strategy. That's what they're there for, aren't they?

Here's a clue. Who has control of USA's real treasure? (And it ain't the Chinese).

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:04 | 685003 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

Currency isn't wealth, that role is reserved for gold.

 

When Trust Matters

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:12 | 685011 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

duplicate

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:11 | 685019 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

triplicate

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:01 | 685078 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

without regard to the fact that the USA has national security goals centered around military control of ME oil supplies

The concept of "national security" is absurd when you consider the context: private central banking control of the military.  The FED and BoE are private globalist corporatist concerns that only give a rat's ass about nations when they can jingoistically rattle the flag to have brainwashed slaves sacrifice their lives and families for the wrong reason.

Frankly, they probably get off the most on this fraud.  More blood sacrifice to their demonic values to accompany their sociopathic vista at the top of the pyramid.  

The real store of value for these hucksters is the gullibility of the average person.  The faster people wake up to the fraud, the faster constitutional values and prosecution by rule of law can end their carny ways.



Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:14 | 685092 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Hank Kissinger: 'Military men are dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns for foreign policy.'

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:11 | 684138 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Lol, your comment reminds me of a consumer economics class im currently in.

About a week ago my teacher taught us a rule for debt to income ratio which should be less than 20%. I laughed and thought to myself I dare not ask her how we will pay off our national debt (not including obligations) which is around what, 35k per every single man woman and child.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:05 | 684378 packman
packman's picture

Actually the Fed's income-to-debt ratio is only 17%.

Wait... you said debt-to-income ratio, didn't you?

Nevermind.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:07 | 684386 packman
packman's picture

(For reference - the Fed's debt-to-income ratio is actually 627%.  And rising really, really fast.  Three years ago it was "only" 351%.)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:42 | 684960 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I'll take $500 billion ANNOUNCED over 1 year to burn the dollar shorts, gold longs, commodity longs, and calm the idea of consumer inflation down for the next 6 months. Remember that with the elections over with they can screw with us as much as they want. China has already told the Treasury Dwarf to hold the line on the dollar or else. They don't have to sell their Treasury holdings, they can just dump their MBS on to the market demanding repayment at par and the U.S. goes apeshit.

I might be wrong but I'll go conservative. The Fed doesn't want to screw the world that bad that fast and anything more than $500 billion would do it. Watch for large positions in UUP, DXDBX, and SPY puts Tuesday afernoon at 3:55 p.m. If you see large moves there, then the fix is in. Not to mention with everyone (translation: Sheeple) having their focus on the elections the Fed can pretty much do what they want until 2:15 p.m. on the 3rd.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:42 | 684015 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Maybe its just me but I thought thought the details were already leaked.

The most common speculation is $100B/month for at least the next 12 months.

I'd be stunned if the formal announcement was much different from this.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:50 | 684054 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

$100B a month is definitely QE prat fall. Thats not good news at all as the number was portrayed as being diamond encrusted $4 trillion at least.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:05 | 684120 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I think there will be a statement like - 'we will whatever necessary to create inflation in the economy.' A sort of statement that will promise infinite POMO's until it either works, or they drive this sucker into the ground (I think the latter will happen first). The 'market' will focus on the infinite nature of the statement. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:35 | 684468 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What I find shocking is that $1.2tn of printing isn't "enough". That's basically 70% of this years deficit printed (not counting POMO's, which should add another considerable chunk), and somehow this isn't "enough"?

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:28 | 684707 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Watching the extortionists negotiate their bounty is disgusting.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:03 | 684832 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

you know what...you're right...and we're playing right into their game.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:56 | 685116 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke is thinking, 'How long can I get away blatantly monetizing the debt?'  And so it has come to QE II.  In order to maintain any semblance of a market $100 billion a month is needed.  But if $100 billion was thrown at the market, wouldn't the next month's price increase?  And so any QEII will be revised and revised again, every meeting doubling the previous.  Bernanke will issue $100 billion now, and next meeting it will be $200 billion, then the next $400 billion.  This because these are the numbers that are needed.  So that being said, who in their right mind will not try to run into the bid?  By March when Bernie is issuing $1.6 trill just to run the ship into his 20th iceberg before sinking.  I say QE II is announced at $100 billion a month and within the month there is either a) a run on bank stock b) a run on the dollar or both.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:08 | 685189 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And I will also say that the QE II rumor was a brilliant way to float the market for the last two months.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:44 | 684021 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL and at the same time the obama channel is touting cutting backs on tax breaks for military personnel, churches etc and selling national parks.

but we have unlimited funds for POMO, so-called stimulus to unions, blue states, big banks, europe and obama campaign contributors

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:55 | 684082 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

....selling national parks.

First dibs on Yosemite.

Now, about those entrance fees.............

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:01 | 684102 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

You'll never get it.  If you think getting a clear title on a house is hard, try national parks!  If there is an indian treaty land within 1000miles, you will be locked in litigation for years.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:09 | 684131 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But....but....but the entrance fees.....

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:16 | 684179 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

You could squat!  As the park is in litigation to determine ownership, you could charge, and keep, entrance fees.  Much like a landlord collecting rent as the property is being foreclosed.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:04 | 684375 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Good.

I hereby award you a free pass good for your lifetime..........or as long as I'm squatting.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:19 | 684426 His Dudeness
His Dudeness's picture

Don't forget the toilet paper... to conclude your squatting.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:28 | 684447 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Now tube-free!  Much easier to hide price increases that way...

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/environment/2010-10-27-1Atube27...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:34 | 684462 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Michelle,

Not only do I like your unique point of view and sunny disposition in the face of all this insanity, but you're always a remarkable source of alternative information. Not only that, but I would never have thought about making bigger holes (now that the "tube" is gone) to decrease the amount of product. Your mind frightens me.

Thank God your married or I would inflict (yes, this is probably the proper term) myself upon you. :>) 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:48 | 684630 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

;)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:04 | 684113 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

I'll take yellowstone, glacier and mesa verde

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:08 | 684129 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

How about the buffoon talking about 'alternative uses' for the Washington Monument. Since it doesn't earn any fees, we could tear it down for the $50 million condo-developer value. 

Is that really our best idea for cutting the deficit?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:12 | 684149 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Is that really our best idea for cutting the deficit?

Nope and it's not intended to be the best idea. While everyone argues about the Washington Monument, the thieves just stole another $1 Trillion in Federal Property.

Take a close look at how the Russian people were raped when the "wall" came tumbling down for a primer on how it's done.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:17 | 684181 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Should have added a '/sarcasm.' ;)

CD, did you read the comment over the weekend by someone on disorganized resistance? It was interesting.  

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:31 | 684249 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Should have added a '/sarcasm.' ;)

My bad. You changed your avatar. Since I rarely look at names now, I didn't recognize the avatar and thought you were new. So I didn't hear the sarcasm.

Yes, I saw the comment about disorganized resistance. One of the benefits not easily seen of controlling the masses is controlling and corralling resistance into organized dens or splinter groups. As I wrote about in "Welcome to the Insane Asylum" since the PTB promoted illusion is that people must raise huge forces to resist the PTB, most people don't understand that it's the large scale resistance that when placed in front of the PTB feeds the power of the PTB.

Disorganized resistance is exactly what is needed, though not exactly as was outlined in the comments. Everyone must simply empower themselves by removing their tendency to transfer their own personal power to the PTB and simply resisit using their own personal fulcrum and it all comes quickly down. A personal example of that is for everyone to stop paying their bills.

The PTB have convinced us that we will die if they die. This is the BIG LIE. We don't need them, they need us.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:09 | 684839 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

"We don't need them, they need us."

this is the essential point methinks.

"Where attention goes energy flows."

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:28 | 685042 Double.Eagle.Gold
Double.Eagle.Gold's picture

Starving the Monkeys, excellent read on this theme.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:46 | 684025 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Watch for an increases in volatility in all markets once QE2 is announced. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:18 | 684185 chet
chet's picture

Yeah, Wednesday is going to be really exciting one way or another, isn't it?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:44 | 684285 frankTHE COIN
frankTHE COIN's picture

Just like before the first Gulf War when Terique Azizz and James Baker met to avert the american attack in Iraq coming in one weeks time. Crude oil had already sold off $4.00 days before ( it was the 4th largest decline in history at the time ) factoring in that there would be no invasion in one week.

It was like " Trading Places " waiting and watching the tv for the OJ crop report.

After the meeting James Baker came to the podium and the only words he got out of his mouth were " I regret to inform you....." Crude Oil lost its mind ! The next 10 prints in order were $18.00, $19.00,$ 20.00 and so on. Each print was a whole $1.00 print and finished the rise at $27.00,then $28.00 then finished lower.

It was Crazy. Then a week later we started bombing and the mkt crashed Locked Limit down, even though we would'nt know the outcome for a month because of bombing then a ground invasion. They sold on the news.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:46 | 684029 Rick64
Rick64's picture

This is just the FED covering their ass, so when this doesn't work they can spread the blame around.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:47 | 684030 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I think we need another stimulus.  The size of the checks this time needs to be enough to really help Americans.  Let's make it for $1 Trillion each.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:59 | 684095 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Can I get that all in ones, please? 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:05 | 684108 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ummmm

A Trillion in hundreds stacked flat (not end to end) is 680 miles high. Get it in thousand dollar bills and it's only 68 miles high.

At this point, it's really beyond human comprehension and has entered cosmic proportions.

To provide some perspective on just how big a trillion dollars is, think about it like this: A trillion dollars is the number 1 followed by 12 zeroes. Or you can think of it this way: One trillion $1 bills stacked one on top of the other would reach nearly 68,000 miles (about 109,400 kilometers) into the sky, or about a third of the way from the Earth to the moon.

 

http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-04/living/trillion.dollars_1_trillion-john-allen-paulos-stimulus?_s=PM:LIVING

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:06 | 684125 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Here's a nice visual (for a trillion in $100 bills):

http://www.dailycognition.com/index.php/2009/03/25/what-1-trillion-dolla...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:11 | 684145 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Great visual, Michelle, but as you pointed out, nickels would be worth more, and present more problems for the beast;)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:19 | 684190 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

If my math is correct, that stack would reach to Venus.

 

 

I'll take it!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:21 | 684196 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How are you and the baby doing Michelle?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:22 | 684203 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Very nicely, thanks for asking!  She started sleeping through the night last week, thank goodness.  Now if I can just get our oldest to stop sneaking into our room every night...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:38 | 684273 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Boundaries are so difficult to set and even more difficult to enforce.

We want so much to love and protect our children that we are often our own worst enemy when it comes to stopping a learned behaviour without emotionally harming the child. Where is the line and how much will it hurt them and ourselves when we set/enforce it? These are the questions they don't answer very well in all those baby books.

Good luck.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:00 | 684828 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

My 16 month old daughter does not yet sleep through the night.  In fact, she gets up at 4 am and thinks it's party time.  For the first few weeks, my wife and I thought it was cute and brought her in our bed.  Now, we let her "cry it out" and all three of us are miserable.  We are straddling the "enforcement" line.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:52 | 684893 Blano
Blano's picture

Enforce now, or pay later.  Trust me.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:58 | 684911 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Ugh.  Our 19 month old was doing the same thing from 1 to 3 every night.  We had to cut out his nap during the day.  It sucked because that was prime homeschool time for our 3 year old, but at least he's sleeping through the night again. 

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:03 | 684919 impending doom
impending doom's picture

CD, Do you respond to people like this face-to-face? Verily I say unto thee, when one waketh in the morning, it is not uncommon to find oneself burdened with a rather sizable erection. Certainly it is difficult to discharge/unload one's bladder under such circumstances.  And yet these are the questions not addressed by the MSM...

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 02:13 | 685244 merehuman
merehuman's picture

also a bad time to check out that third I.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:35 | 685052 kkam
kkam's picture

'We want so much to love and protect our children that we are often our own worst enemy...'

Well said, CD. Wish more parents realized that coddling and pampering thier child is a poor preparation for the harsh realities of the world. Tough love is what they need.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:23 | 684204 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Get a few friends together, and you could build a tower that reaches to Mars and be free of this crap.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:23 | 684209 -Michelle-
Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:53 | 684639 Paul E. Math
Paul E. Math's picture

Ben Bernanke wants to know how many hundreds it takes to reach Uranus.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:35 | 684719 Rusty Shorts
Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:11 | 684399 centerline
centerline's picture

It's value as currency at that point would be moot. But a stack that big, and some glue, and we could make one hell of a bunker! Plus furniture too. Cool. Laminated FRN beams, columns, etc.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:56 | 684643 legerde
legerde's picture

There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.
- Richard Feynman

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:11 | 684684 nonibaby
nonibaby's picture

another way of looking at it is at 1000 $gold, it is the equivalent of all the gold that has been mined in the last two thousand years

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:15 | 684770 piceridu
piceridu's picture

I know it's all green but it isn't "green"...what a waste of so many trees and flax plants.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:11 | 684137 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Take it in nickels. The melt value is higher then the face value. Think of the arb opportunity!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:15 | 684169 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sadly it's a felony to melt (aka deface) your legal tender.

I can't wait to hear and see news items of some desperate family who burned their house down because they build a blast furnace in the kitchen sink.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:28 | 684237 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You don't have to melt them to profit from them.  Get them now, and others will pay you for them once they are out of circulation, just like with silver coins.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:41 | 684289 CU1981
CU1981's picture

+0.07

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:33 | 684258 tallystick
tallystick's picture

If they change the composition and debase to a cheaper metal, you are allowed to melt the old design.  They are out of circulation at that point.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:10 | 684387 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think you may be wrong. It's my understanding that all currency/coinage is in fact "owned" by the government/Fed and we are simply "using" it. Thus we can not deface or melt that which is not ours.

Again, I most certainly could be wrong, but this is my understanding of the currency/coinage laws.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:43 | 684482 tmosley
tmosley's picture

They pass specific laws while they are still in circulation, but their melt value is higher than their face value.  This happened in the 70's and early 80's with silver coins, but once they completely disappeared from circulation, they let that law sunset.  Currently, it is illegal to melt pennies or nickels, but once we switch to steel or aluminum or some such base metal, that law will likely sunset as well.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:10 | 684682 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

On coinage:

I would agree with you. They have even 'branded' their pieces before they set them loose. The inscriptions on coins are not all that much different from the brand on free range cattle.

The silver confiscation (late 60's) was global. And fairly well orchestrated in the time domain. Slaves don't have any business walking around with the silver of their master.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:36 | 684793 tewkatz
tewkatz's picture

Defacement of currency is a violation of Title 18, Section 333 of the United States Code. Under this provision, currency defacement is generally defined as follows: Whoever mutilates, cuts, disfigures, perforates, unites or cements together, or does any other thing to any bank bill, draft, note, or other evidence of debt issued by any national banking association, Federal Reserve Bank, or Federal Reserve System, with intent to render such item(s) unfit to be reissued, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than six months, or both.

http://www.moneyfactory.gov/historicallegislation.html

So, there are literally MILLIONS of felons walking the streets, right now; anyone who ever put $.51 into those penny squished into a tourist attraction novelty copper thingie!  I think we've just found a conspiracy bigger and older than fraudgate!!!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:29 | 685044 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

coins aren't currency.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:53 | 685117 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

hmmmm, notice the wording here:

any bank bill, draft, note, or other evidence of debt issued by any national banking association, Federal Reserve Bank, or Federal Reserve System.

admittance that their currency notes are debt notes?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:48 | 684031 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

10,000 trillon dollars is what is really needed. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:14 | 684165 espirit
espirit's picture

Just make it a Gazillion, and get it over with already. Move along.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:28 | 684238 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

a Gazillion still may not be enough, we will need more

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:25 | 684704 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

We need a googooplex of QE!

And we may just get it,

 

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:49 | 684040 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Yeah.  Like the guys getting the money at 0% and able to buy equities for no interest and make whatever return on investment that they want would say anything different!  "How much money do you want, there fellers?"  "I dunno, more and lots?"

Are these idiots at the FED really this stupid or corrupt?  The ought to put a bullet in the own freakin' brain.  They would problably point the gun backwards and kill somebody else.  MAN!  What a bunch of putzes.  Sorry, that is an affront to putzes everywhere. 

These MRers need to GO, by WHATEVER MEANS NECESSARY.  This is beyond ridiculous.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:50 | 684041 Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

I'm your puppet. Pull my string.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:02 | 684049 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Something has to give. I believe gold and the dollars decline will be the roadblock. Its all about the DXY. The story should get more interesting if the DXY goes below 70

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:51 | 684052 deliciousirony
deliciousirony's picture

Here's a blank fucking check.

I'm shocked at the brazeness. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:52 | 684064 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I read the article as 4 dealers each saying they want $1 trillion? Or is it a poll that each PD guesses at the TOTAL amount thru each of the 18?

No I think these 4 just said $1 trillion each please....

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:15 | 684170 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

They ought to pose the question on the next episode of "The Price is Right". where at the beginning of each round the contestants guess the value, instead they can guess what the stimulus will be.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:53 | 684065 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

100 Billion a month is to small. I say blow the whole Trillion wad at once. Odds are still good at 15% it will work.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:14 | 684160 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Work how? Creating jobs?

Or simply creating more commodity/input inflation thereby squeezing corporate margins (leading companies to lay people off to maintain profitability). QE has been, always will be about re-liquifying the insolvent banks...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:15 | 684411 centerline
centerline's picture

Big, mac daddy party in the Hamptons.  Trickle down economics of course.  What's wrong with you Joe!

 

</sarcasm>

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:54 | 684072 pat53
pat53's picture

LOL... the Fed disappoint?  No chance. Just keep buying the dips, this is almost too easy !

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:56 | 684084 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

erin burnett has the answer - lets give the dealers trillions and we can tax churches

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:59 | 684097 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Make the dealers churches. After all they are doing "God's Work".

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:05 | 684115 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL +10

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:18 | 684571 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Jesus reportedly not amused.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:03 | 684109 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Tax Foundations

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:58 | 684088 swissinv
swissinv's picture

I like the song and I think the text somehow fits well to the current economic situation:

Dilated people - worst come worst: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sevZEOUXpw4&feature=channel

Yes - california streets ain’t paved with gold! ...and there will be no alchemyst running the FED going forward...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 14:58 | 684091 Jean Valjean
Jean Valjean's picture

That should do it.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:07 | 684094 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I understand this might not be popular here on ZH, but the Fed might just be setting up the market for a major disappointment.

Always remember that there must be political cover and plausible deniability when making moves that could be percieved as "bad" for the general public. Tank the markets, then everyone will come begging for $10 Trillion of QE 2.0

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:13 | 684155 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

CD - I am very much in agreement.  Only because it allows for public perception and so forth.  I hadn't thought about the "big bat" option - but that would fit nicely into my take (yours and others, too) on this....I like the  "hey, you came to me - remember" aspect.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:16 | 684174 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Even if they aren't "planning" it that way, if it happens and the markets are blown they'll be dancing a jig at 33 Liberty.

The only way this goes badly for the oligarchs is that nobody wants QE2 and it never happens and the markets then blow up and sink and then nobody cares that they sink and the President doesn't panic as things sink and Congress doesn't do something knee-jerk stupid as everything sinks.

Though yeah in that case 33 Liberty shits a brick.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:59 | 684656 Paul E. Math
Paul E. Math's picture

I think you make a good point but I also think that's what the WSJ article of a few days ago was about.

Bernanke leaks that he's thinking about only $100B to start and a little more 'as needed' just to test the market's reaction, expecting a crash that would justify the $2T+ that he really wants and intends to use.

The problem is the market only dipped a little and then bounced right back, perhaps seeing right through this bluff.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:00 | 684101 Gimp
Gimp's picture

How about the Feds let the PD's print there own money...problem solved.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:19 | 684189 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They are already. What do you call POMO?

"Look ma, no ink stains."

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:52 | 684811 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Notgeld, bitches!!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:01 | 684103 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

This is Ben's way of getting the maximum number of people to think about and respect his power - this knife cuts both ways....Ben's just trying to keep 'em fixated on the edge facing "them".  I'm still in the "you'll be disappointed with QE2.0 camp".  Think about it, could you find a better way to broadcast this shit to the world?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:01 | 684104 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

1 Trillion....4 Trillion..... What does it matter now ? Ease away into oblivion.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:22 | 684433 centerline
centerline's picture

1 trillion = death by .38.  2 trillion = instant death by .50 to head.  4 trillion = death by cruise missle up ass.

I am more concerned that we get to see oblivion unfold a little at a time... death by thousand little painful paper cuts (made with FRN's of course).

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:04 | 684111 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Those trial numbers are "Dr. Evil" in magnitude.

I need to think about supplies.

Take care, LB :)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:03 | 684112 Hondo
Hondo's picture

All this corruption does is make money for the PD...it will not and hasn't helped the economy or any individual outside the cluster of corruption. 

 

Everyone is panic about the dollar....it was 7% lower than today back in 2008.  From Q1 2002 through Q1 of 2008 the dollar fell 32% and nobody said a word.  Stock only rose 28.6% over that period with CPI rising 19.5% ( a real return of about 1.5%..sort of like today with a 5 year TSY with zero inflation).

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:04 | 684114 flaunt
flaunt's picture

Maybe the fed already knows what they're going to do, but they just want to know how they and their friends should position themselves prior to announcement. 

One could envision all sorts of political reasons for creating a huge market rally or a huge market crash the day after a big election for the out-of-power party.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:05 | 684122 Wu-Tang Financial
Wu-Tang Financial's picture

We know what the PD community thinks, but what about the DP community?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:12 | 684146 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You need to diversify your bonds, bitchez!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:06 | 684123 Wynn
Wynn's picture

It's fourth and one, and Ben's going for it.

hold the line fellas, hold the line

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:11 | 684141 crosey
crosey's picture

Did you ever think that you would see such things in your lifetime?

For his next outrageous move, next week Ben may get drunk and streak.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:28 | 684240 mikla
mikla's picture

... and then later, Ben wasn't feeling so well:

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:13 | 684407 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

Is the cat under the hat? :>)

BTW an experienced drinker never lets go of the drink no matter what.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:12 | 684147 swissinv
swissinv's picture

To be honest I am surprised that the dealers came "only" up with 1 trillion. The FED will now try everthing to keep expectation low and stear information flow accordingly... B-Day is soon, and if your boss is going to ask how much you would expect, with what figure would you come up, honestly?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:13 | 684153 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont see it as the 18 PD's came up with $1 trillion, looks to me like 4 individual PD's came up with a $1 trillion each and we havent heard from the other 14 yet.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:15 | 684172 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

check out cognitive D's take on this above.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:20 | 684192 espirit
espirit's picture

+1  ...now you're reading every line and not every other one.  Jeez, now the cat's really out of the bag.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:56 | 684345 swissinv
swissinv's picture

I mean that I expect even the FED to come up with a higher number in the first half year... Being aware that some high grade people such as Faber believe that the FED will disappoint the markets I am not sure if Geithy can't afford this at the current votaile beta markets neither I believe he's got the guts to...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:16 | 684173 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Even if $1 Trillion is settled on, thats far short of other far higher estimates GS said at LEAST $2 trillion, high as $4 Trillion. So suddenly far less is good enough? Theres been a lot of baking in far higher.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:25 | 684215 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

exactly, but how better to be able to say "you came to me, remember" for a 10 trillion or whatever easing after a crash (that was heavily shorted).  When has the Fed ever been so talkative? Why?  Plausable deniability?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:31 | 684251 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea now the FED is going with 'encounter groups' with the PD banks?

Bernanke: OK students, QE hiball or QE lowball....discuss amongst yourselves...

Gettin all freshman year college on our ass.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:29 | 684236 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Q.E. 2 = Jaw Boning ...

China rare earths shipping again into usa,europe,japan. Uncle Ben will not flood china with inflation. 500 Billion max over 6-12 months.

 

It’s not a perfect science.  But to the naked eye, it looks remarkably like changes in the positioning of large traders in the AUDUSD generally lead price changes.  It makes some sense.  If its hedge funds using futures to execute trades in the AUDUSD, then we might expect selling into strength and buying on weakness.  Whatever the logic, I reckon it’s interesting that the large traders have been selling the AUD since late September, even as the pacific peso has made its charge for parity.  If recent history is any guide, a deeper retracement in the AUDUSD can be expected.  If the AUD is going lower, then guess we can expect risk assets to join it.

http://pragcap.com/fed-sell-risk

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:59 | 684357 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

exactly - plus theres Uncle Mers who simply refuses to leave.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:07 | 684670 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

good point ... audusd has diverged with audjpy lately.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:20 | 684198 primefool
primefool's picture

Bennie does'nt know what he's doing. This is basically the monetary equivalent of New Orleans - and the WH running around calling metings and having conference calls - but basically They dont know what they are doing.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:21 | 684199 primefool
primefool's picture

Bennie does'nt know what he's doing. This is basically the monetary equivalent of New Orleans - and the WH running around calling metings and having conference calls - but basically They dont know what they are doing.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:23 | 684202 99er
99er's picture

"It is good to finally know what the bogey is."

And you will soon hear from the BRICs..."Mulligan!"

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:25 | 684216 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I say let's just print $10 trillion.  As well, reduce the age for Social Security qualification while also increasing every other social welfare program in DC...and just raise taxes.

Just light it up already and be done with it.  Go ahead and kill the beast.  Vote for Democrats on Tuesday while your at it.

Free paradise of bust....

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:33 | 684261 Dadoomsayer
Dadoomsayer's picture

I say give me a trillion dollars and I will create jobs.  I'll create 500,000 jobs and pay each person 50,000 a year.  After the year is up I'll keep the balance.  Deal?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:39 | 684280 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Seriously, what the fuck is this shit?  Okay, so, every time I need a few bucks for groceries, I'm going to break out my fucking "Heli-Ben Junior" printing press and run off a couple of Benjamins on a roll of toilet paper.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:48 | 684313 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well...sort of...but not really.  For you, nothing.  Now, if you were an NYNY robber baron prick with lots of buildings in your inventory, yes...Ben shows up with the presses so that your net worth does not experience "deflation."

So suck it up, serf!  Beans and rice, rice and beans for you...and those prices are ramping so go ahead and get your self a second job cleaning offices in one of the robber baron's buildings. 

Chop chop, serf! 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:24 | 685036 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

I sincerely hope to live long enough to see Ben get his presses rammed right up his chrome-domed ass.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:45 | 684298 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Got physical gold and silver? You had better!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:46 | 684304 primefool
primefool's picture

I got it. Nov 2 the Democrats lose big time. Nov 3 bennie wimps out on QE2 - market crashes. WH says - see I told you so - the "markets" are unhappy with these repubs.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:01 | 684365 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

If allot of anti fed reserve poeple get in , they will crash it.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:19 | 684424 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure seems to me thats what theyre doing, prime perfection exit strategy for them all to position short and plunge the markets the day after the election and blame it all on 'republicans' and dump the whole mess and blame in their laps 8 hours in. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:46 | 684306 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

Harvard! Princeton! Yale! Look out they're about to bail!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 15:46 | 684309 web bot
web bot's picture

So the prostitutes are running the condom machines. Lovely.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:41 | 684479 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Anything over a $1T and we will rally like a mofo. Market in wait mode on the off chance QE2 isn't more than $500B. Once the confirmation is in, I'm afraid this rally continues.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:47 | 684625 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Rally in PMs and PM stocks will be higher...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:20 | 684577 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Typically, when a line is drawn in the sand it is to divide.  That spells agenda, and in the world where the participants can do whatever outcome they want.   This is a setup for either disappointment or the contrary, or both.  These decisions are one of many steps ahead....  The amount is moot, it's the setup that's important.

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