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This is going to end well.
Well, PIMCO is raising an equity fund, so the capital is going somewhere....
Pimco going all in on the top of the equity bubble? Good luck to em!
QE 3 is now in question. i give it 50/50 chance now.. and any selloff will happen without any annoucement, because the crooks at the top know before we do.
But.. what if there is QE3? then the little guy gets screwed again, missing out on all the stacked up buying before the announcement; before we even get wind the DOW will be at 14,000.
Hand of blackjack bitchez...
fuck it: just go to vegas and get free drinks.
At this point, I am quite bullish on cocain, hookers, and the entire self inebriation sector.
The market surged on the Jackson's hole speech. It did not surge prior to the speech, although insiders may have been buying before Bernanke signalled QE2. Any little guy could have gotten involved in the surge.
you really think that ben wont get together with Goldie Sachs and JP Morgue brass over Opus X's and 20 year and mention, "oh, by the way...the chair is against the wall"
Trust me, the announcement (if any) will be made when the little sheeple can't trade. And the DOW will open up (or down) so far that it will be unattractive to buy or our portfolio's will be collapsed.
The Bernank doesn't smoke cigars and drink scotch it snorts shredded FRNs and drinks the blood of unborn children.
The Bernank is simply a puppet, a useful idiot, a stooge, who is the front man for those who snort shredded FRNs and drink the blood of unborn children... e.g. the Wall Street TBTF bankster class...
That is why he mutters, stutters and his lip quivers...
Batting Order on Bastille DayI suggest Jamie, Lloyd, Rubinite, and Uncle Warren lead off ...
Jeethner, Obummer and the Bernank are just the Bat Boys...
Highly compensated bat boys... but bat boys none the less.
there's an image for our william to work with.
I agree 100%. "just trust us to manipulate the markets in a way that is good for you because we love you" is the monetary policy in this country(and all the central bank controlled countries). If you think that changes should be made to fix this then you are officially "an insane uneducated wingnut".
But are they not our benevolent shepherds.
Always watching over the flock. Surely they
fleece us from time to time, but how could anyone
think they could slaughter us, their fluffy white
I give it 90-10 odds there will be no QE3, initially. It will be a repeat of 2010 where QE ended, for awhile, then all started to unravel....then, QE II.
It will be the same, worse this time...because the end game gets closer, and ramped up prices will have even further to fall....plus, T-bonds go bidless, so QE3 will be imminement. Cash will be fine during this transition....which is where Bill Gross is going. Right when you get then next jackson hole moment, go very long PM's, Oil, etc.
Bernak is trying to save face with "self-sustaining" bull-shit statements about the economy. It will fall apart but he'll be able to blame congress and the deficts and bidless bonds and try to save some dignitiy in the History books for the Fed.
But anyone following knows the Fed will ultimately get what they deserve.
I thought the same, they will not do it initially, letting things drop and then when they do announce it, there will not be as much backlash.
He could be selling bonds because he expects inflation to accelerate and that without China's backing the QE3 bond-buying play is unfounded. Of course you have to sell bonds for cash - who says he isn't going to use that cash to buy other assets?
Without QE3, the Fed's interests would have to end their military expeditions immediately, and banks with leverage ratios of as high as 20:1 (some of whom are direct shareholders in the Fed) will collapse.
QE3 won't happen, and military expeditions will keep on a rollin'. Why, because higher oil prices will require it.
Think about it. I'm not a conspiracy guy, but am I the only one who sees the NA/ME situation as the perfect out if the Fed/WS/Gov think a second collapse is inevitable? Oil will be the fall guy.
QE3 will happen. There will be a delay just after 2 ends, but when the bottom begins to fall out, they will come rushing back in with 3.
They've got to let a bunch of stuff break first in order to create the media pundit led mandate for QEIII.
Like say, a few blown-up munis, for instance.
I'm with Ironmaan... QE3 is coming right up, announced or unannounced by the back door if there is too much political resistance for more Bankster TBTF welfare...
where's the bid for USTs gonna come from w/o QE?
If the Fed stops printing and there is serious geopolitical turmoil, I think there will plenty of bidders.
bidding up the bonds of an insolvent state...not a great plan
Since when in the last 15 years has the critical mass of money managers had a great plan? Mutual funds are run by bandits to fleece idiots. They make a fee and justify their career by chasing benchmarks.
Trust me, I think our shit stinks plenty...just not as bad as everyone else's. In previous flight to quality moves, the market has agreed with me. Maybe it will be different in the future...maybe not.
Not enough physical gold to handle the demand once the proles figure out what's what.
PLENTY of idiots will buy Treasuries to get out of everything else. Until some magical moment when nobody wants anything but items of intrinsic value. Food, silver, ammo, gold, the Vanessa Williams issue of Penthouse kept in a pristine plastic envelope...
In this game of Global Jeopardy, I'll take the Bank of England with a Bermuda twist for $50 billion. We got presses, they got presses, just to keep the ponzi even-steven.
Why Trav? Think outside the box. Pimco wrongly assumed QE2 would be bond bullish. They were wrong and they lost money on the bet.
So now he's sold out at a loss. It could mean he thinks QE3 WILL START ON SCHEDULE... which will continue to ramp up inflation expectations, and continue the bond selloff.
The crowd thinks no more QE means a bond selloff, i.e no bids until much lower prices. Maybe. Maybe it takes the pressure off inflation and restores confidence, which makes it safe to come back to bonds... which certainly jives with the last 6 months trade. That would be bond bullish and commodity/PM bearish. (Of course the math of compount interest still goes on so it would be wise to BTFD on commodities/PM's)
started a rush out, maybe a stampede - where did that happen before... ? oh yea, a redshield dropping british bonds like waterloo was lost. remember the outcome of that? QE3 and a bond reversal is where gross picks up the debt for pennies on the pound, with the expectation that nobody will see the coming ramp after this bloodbath he's precipitating.
Well-hedged, Mister Skin.
Well we all know who the interests of the Fed are - its shareholders and their arm of power, the government. Here some examples of the leverage ratios among the Fed's shareholders:
JP Morgan : 12.6
Goldman : 12.9
Citi : 11.7
That means these banks will be wiped out if their investments depreciate by values less than 10% - you really think they're going to willingly stop QE?
Plus I fail to see how the US government can continue to finance military operations all over the world without debt monetization. Plus the absence of the wealth effect will could easily cause sudden revolt.
1) I think the banks you mention are able to position their books to profit from any scenario if they are either smart enough or informed in advance (take your pick)
2) From what portion of society do you think the revolt will come? Does this portion of society benefit more from the wealth effect, or suffer more from the inflationary aspects of QE?
I've long been in the camp that believes the Government's game plan for getting out of the debt pickle is inflation. What I'm saying above is that IF (big if) the Fed/Gov/WS believe there is a coming collapse regardless of QE efforts, they now have a fall guy in NA/ME turmoil and higher oil prices. Conveniently, this also justifies additional military operations in the region.
You could be right but I think they would find it very difficult to avoid counter-party risk in that environmnet - I don't believe the system is capable of absorbing a deflationary collapse. The absence of debt monetization could cause the control-grid to completely disintegrate within a very short period of time. I agree that revolt will arise in either case but my point is that the wealth effect helps to keep people docile as the media can points to rising stock prices and propells the myth of recovery. However I would argue that in either case precious metals are the safe haven since they're a hedge against counter-party risk as well as inflation. Your bank is probably going to default in the case of deflation so unless you fill wheel-barrows with dollars, only hard assets are a safe-haven.
Those leverage ratios are grossly understated.
Could be "going in" massively short.
Big PIMCO funds cannot afford to go "massively short".
They can hedge, but going massively short is a gamble that may run out of liquidity before things unfold and you should know it.
Gross could hand out dollars like Robin Hood did gold. Helicopter drops over Times Square? Shit, he could fly to Tahrir square and do some real good. In the US the 20% unemployed might get a kick out of that, and it would steal any thunder Bernanke was considering. Get to the choppa?
not if its a long-short equity hedge fund.
Good luck guys!
forex robot online trading
The cash has to go somewhere, and that somewhere almost has to be fully-hedged equity and futures positions. Certainly Gross can't risk parking it in banks. He'll be selling off the losing side of those hedges long before I first hear the incoming shells screaming down on my position. It seems natural to retreat to the equities markets from bonds now, given flexible hedging in the equities world, and sovereign bond risk in every bond market that counts. Can't trust CDS counter-parties with that kind of money and coming volatility, can you? Criticism welcomed.
Ah, the gross 1, i'd guess he's had a heart to heart talk with blythe and is buying Silver! we'll be the last one's to know what he's doing with all that cashola-
Remain calm.....all is well.
If he sold all of it, then whose the dumbass on the other side of that trade??
I think I know who.
Eaxactly, it is where everyone shoots out their (US Debt) load...
Ben Shalom Bukkake
Maybe they decided not to bring Bill into the loop this time, hadn't he leaked certain info early over the past year that he seemed to have insider knowledge of, as mentioned before by TD?
Oh cum, cum ...surely Ben doesn't swallow it all ?!!!
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