This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record
A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill - it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world's largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO's holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross' thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a "gold" asset holdings line item.
And another side effect of the firm's scramble away from debt and into cash is that the effective duration of TRF is now down to 3.6: only the second lowest since the 3.38 posted in December of 2008... when the world was on the verge of ending.
That Bill Gross is willing to risk a surge in redemptions (after all who would be wiling to pay PIMCO to manage a third of their assets in the form of supposedly devaluating cash) in order to make a statement about the credibility of the US government, and specifically the viability of its IOUs, is easily the only thing that the US government has to consider when evaluating the prospects for funding trillions and trillions of US deficits at "acceptable" rates in the absence of further quantitative easing by the Chairman.
If Gross is indeed right, something very wicked this way comes.
»
- 51582 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
TammyWanger...I mean Hammy,
You are delusional....
Fuck off you piece of shit.
What higher interest rates would do to GOLD AND SILVER.
he is buying euros?
"Permagloomers like Jim Willie CB who hasn't been heard from in months."
A little delusional are you Robo T
You have not been "seeing" if you make that statement.
Willie's made 10 fortunes in silver, let alone gold. Robot cannot possibly be this stupid.
"Robot cannot possibly be this stupid"; oh yes she can; go visit a cowboy bar on Friday night; there's no natural lower limit to "stupid".
The Legacy TreasuryDirect service is shutting down. This means that anyone holding money with The Treasury who is not comfortable doing business over the internet will have to do something with all the money they had stored at The Treasury. I have no idea if this influenced Gross's decision. I wouldn't expect a huge amount of money to be tied up in Legacy TreasuryDirect, but who knows? You can buy up to $5 million at each auction through that service. Maybe there's more money there than anyone thinks.
Bill Gross short Treasuries? This sounds like People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, who shorted Treasuries last year and then fled the country. I read that here, too. Since that story was never corrected, it had to be true.
http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?p=2623669
Michael Ruppert says 3 months tops!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDWqODmoU0Q&feature=watch_response
Patti Smith – Rock ‘n’ Roll Nigger (LIVE @ EXIT 09)
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VFz1PUFyyo&NR=1
CIA HAS 16 MILLION SECRET DOCUMENTS! REVOLUTION NOW!
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqM7wq0W_kw
Gerald Celente Loses It – When This Man Acts Like This It Means – WAKE UP!!!!
+100
Isn't this bush for the dollar and bearish for the euro?
The Fed wants to play hard to get with QE and with each one they stretch out the gameplay a little longer. What guarantees another QE is simply for the Fed to step away from the market for a short length of time. When the Fed steps away, quite simply, the market is weak and cannot sustain a rally all summer long, therefore the Fed can begin to usher in a QE3 or QE500 in order to save the market from plunging. Spain will probably ask for a bailout during that down time since everything will be so bad anyway, why not do it then. Dump all the bad news at once. Then crank up a big ole reflation rally right before the elections. Inflation, Barnank doesn't even care about that. Let the politicians use it as something they can spin into their platform in some ridiculous way.
i've said it b4, and i'll prob say it again: are you not aware of the fact that w/out QE (funding the debt, printing the money borrowed), US Treasury checks would bounce?
This might be the single most important ZH article re: actionable trading info. Gross is loading up with cash - keeping his powder dry for a reason. He sees a freakin huge buying opportunity coming soon. There is no way he is going to stay in cash very long in this huge inflationary environment unless he knows that he can put that cash somewhere profitably and within the next few months. My bet is that he sees the end of QE2 with no announcement of QE3. Markets tank, commodities tank, and there is a short term buying opportunity until the fed capitulates and fires up QE3. Makes sense , and corroborates with much info on ZH and elsewhere. Oh yeah, I doubt that Bill Gross is making any kind of political statement with his trades like the original poster said, Gross is just trading to make money - bottom line. Yours, Maverick
Good points. The Fed won't mind much yet as the dollar was getting trashed too hard for even for their liking. This will prop it up a bit, and they can make sure POMO goes towards buying the trash Gross dumped to prevent rates from getting out of hand. Either way, the fed will sacrifice equities to keep the rates low; they have no choice.
In my view the Fed will do what the banks tell it to do.
I don't see why ending POMO will help keep rates low. It's the right thing to do, but I don't think that factors into the decision.
Your right. The fed. reserve is a private bank just like it's constituent banks, but with more goverment authorized power to create credit with a key stroke. They all work together for the betterment of each other as their primary mission. However, my point was that the banks have been using POMO to prop up the stock market; if treasuries start to tank and yields rise, the fed and other banking cartel members could sacrifice equities driving themselves and investors to the supposedly "safe" alternative of bonds. The fed knows that higher bond interest rates will hurt them worse than lower stock prices.
Thanks. The Fed may be painted into a corner but their bank masters are very long hubris!
I agree with your analysis.
PIMCO has not been shy taking advantage of their "informational advantage."
Seems like Gross knows something unless he has finally gone off the deep end.
this analysis really proves gross knows something we don't and is sitting on the cash b/c he knows something "better" is coming right along (i.e., there can be no "other" reason) unless he has simply lost his mind?
can i smoke some, too?
Well Gross is the best performing bond manager over the last 30 years despite lugging $100's of billions. What's your major accomplishment rat-boy?
Is he converting it to nickels and constructing a giant money bin Scrooge McDuck style?
I think he's converting it all to quarters which he'll store in the form of a giant Batman statue in the middle of Kansas.
you don't seem to understand the wisdom of blake's idea, here, asswipe!
You're right, I don't. Last time I checked, copper and nickel (75% and 25% of a nickel's metal composition) were both in abundant supply in the earth's crust. Maybe Scrooge McDuck is a commodities genius, or maybe he's just a cartoon character. I'm curious, do you know which?
Added: Holy crap! I did the math and a nickel is worth 7.1 cents at current commodity spot prices, a 40% premium over face value. I believe it's illegal to melt it down though...
I like the batman sculpture though. Maybe after the money bin...
Gross is messing with some dangerous people
I felt this way just before the Massad Moma on Military Road left truned her Honda http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72s3BBtnI0I a few months before http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WYdAJQV100 the 911 call. I see we all pay her new AIG insurance premium and now she's got a new Porsche. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQT_v3R9vvE Strange how the pattern http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9Syi12RJo of POMO combines with disasters, or maybe not, ...just business as ''unusual'' and we are to jaded to be Gross'd out by the gross point Blankcheck Fee Fine foe thumb work because... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJJB2k695iE ''Fight Club is on Bitchez''
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUQvnQilH1s&feature=related
with 6 separate links and a 1/2+ blue post, i don't care how hip you are abt "Massad Moma" B_hole_D, you may not belong here. pls, pls try to break it down cogently, unless totally inappropriate, for some reason, which can happen here, and state yer case, ok? all of it. under these conditions, no one minds a good video or supporting link. just abt ever, i would say. some people in the world we reach, here, have phone modems, due to "chance" or even (gasp!) choice.
if you want to see a site designed to reach people wwwide, look at agora's "The Daily Reckoning" ok?
actually i kinda like what it seems to me you are trying to say, here. other than that, let me say that Z's who say "this is good" or "i love this" and post some article, period, are pretty weak for this site and quite possibly deflector trolls.
i'll stf up now. peace.
Oh good: Another newbie youngster who think he runs ZH!
Here's are the only ZH rules, Sparky:
1) You, specifically, aren't allowed to use the word "cogently." It violates the maximum irony threshold.
2) Texting abbreviations = douche chills.
3) You missed the 60's-70's; shove "peace" up your arse.
Forgive me, I understand your point but, I junked you back. You are correct to feel a bit outside of the multi dimentional parable, you are not crazy. I am beyond nuts, the helmet did not help much when my head bounced of the ground, obviously. I was hoping I would at least have some sense knocked into me. You have a keen eye, there is no doubt. Just to make things a little clear err for you, I was not joking and I was riding on my motorcycle, working for a national news company in D.C., when some Lawyer's wife made her effort to kill me in her left turning Honda on Military Road. She lied about what she did and when I called her, after I limped out of the hospital, to confront her, that's when I found out she was going to ''church'' that Saturday. She's not a Seventh Day Adventist but she drives like a dentist. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOtMizMQ6oM ''Is it safe'' you ask? ...to ride in the D.C. metro area, not around that house. I informed her of the home made sticker on the back of my helmet ''Fear Not Go With God Judgment Cometh''. Anyway, that's about enough info for you. Thanks for the peace and yer alright with me man, no big deal.
P.S. ...just had that feeling [motorcyclist's intuition<< if you ride you may know what that is(can't explain this one, it's the crazy in me)>> combined with prophetic vision] that something like this was going to happen, and I was also telling people that I thought they were gonna do the WTC as an exuse to do a bunch of things, like go to Iraq. When I got tagged on my bike it was a few months before 911. I ended up on that same bike (with a dented tank imprint of my knee) at the Pentagon that day. I was able to get the tape from our crew, then I ran it(road bike), through all the seized up traffic. There is so much shit I could tell you it would blow your mind, best I could do in a short manner was what offened you.
im beginning to like Bill Gross. ..now if he'd just call Bernanke a bearded useless cunt on TV we'd be there.
Basically, that's what he just did; in polite terms, of course. I like Bill Gross, and he's correct; his main problem may be that he's too smart for his own good. The treasures will trade down; it's a given.
heh, yes I know figuratively he did, but Im still holding for the literal.
..love to see the CNBC bimbos faces on that one
I think it's strange that he has disgust for US debt but a love for US currency.
Maybe, perhaps, someone can explain that to me please. There must be something I'm missing because Bill is a pretty crafty guy.
+1
Indeed. Probably hooked up with Rogers/Soros and buying grain silos, gold, etc.
I've got a grain elevator I'd like to sell someone.
1) Stocks will go down as well as recession is coming due to oil prices, and will be priced in very soon.
2) Recession starts in q1 2012, continues throughout 2013.
3) No revenue.
4) Interest can not be raised due to debt payments and deterioating economy (no revenues)
5) QE3 can not be launched due to impact on inflation and oil and food prices all over the world and USA.
This will have major internal political consequences in 2012 elections.
6) USA debt is going to crash correct in 2013-2014. Reduce by 20% in one year. by any means, but not hyperinflation, as USD is world reserve currency. Its not Weimar mark.Cash will be protected. M1 is safe, bar normal inflation ( 10%?) .
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=100#p31678
This will have major geopolitical and international political consequences, as well as internal political consequences in countries holding USA debt, or having high own debt ratios.
Only good assets are commodities, real stuff. Gold as well. Silver after temporary correction in 2011-q2 2012. Short everything else.
Nothing FED or Obama or congress can do. They are like Fukushima operators now.See comparison here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=100#p31697
They will continue in the same vein in vain, and be found guilty by voters for second recession in 2012. Democratic president and senate, republican house, all guilty. Who will win the next elections? None of these 2 parties.
edit
The rats are starting to jump from the sinking ship....
Confusion=Volatility=Flight to Quality
Gold basher note:
Yes, you can eat treasury shorts.
A short on US-T denominated in mickey mouse currency: where does that get you......
unhh,...cash, less a bit of interest you need to cover on the borrowed T's. if this is true, it may simply mean gross thinks the downside gain fron being short (T-prices fall) is greater, maybe much greater, all things considered, that the risk of the price going upwarly ape-shit, at this point.
if you short something, you think the price prob will go down, exactly the opposite of why you might buy the same thing, go long, at a diff time and under diff circumstances.
if you want to sell something which you do not own, you borrow it thru the broker, and sell it. at least those are the rules, which, as we know...
...well, perhaps you've read or heard about the "failures" in clearing certain T-transactions, here & there. basically, some of the "sellers" could not/would not deliver the actual treasury instruments to clear. tyler has gone 2X on this since at least, this calendar year.
yes, virginia, counterfeit T-instruments! some physical copies, some e-entries, seems to me. no one could ever audit who's got what, where, any more than the dept of defense could be audited. the GAO tried and declared it utterly impossible, years ago! audit the FED and other Reserve Sytem Banksters and primary dealers? Hahahaha! the idea that any large corp's financial statements are anything but smoke and mirrors doesn't do too well, these days. accounting standards for criminals, everywhere.
many, here, still haven't "got" this, as you can see. here! try my bong!
thx for listening. peace.
Can you cover the part about what a person expects when they short something one more time. It had the makings of brilliance...
And nobody like a liar. You said you would "shut the f#ck up" in you last useless post.
Don't kid your self. Gross is a Treasury/Fed Shill who is doing what The Bernank is telling him, i.e., scare people out of treasuries into the stock market so it won't crash. Alternatively, scare people out of treasuries bonds into RE which is still plunging in a downward spiral since no one wants to own a massive lead weight around their ankle anymore---higher prop taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc....and only getting more expensive to own a depreciating asset called, a house.
If Pimco gets burned who will bail them out?
Gross has no idea what he is doing, that much is clear.
I'll be a chap too since Bill is.
I'm overloading up on NatGas
How do we play it?
So I have a question for all the people so convinced the dollar is dead.
Are you smarter than Bill Gross? How much is your personal opinion scewing your view
What if..
Bill G sees a massive dollar rally coming. Goes to cash to wait for the run on debt. The only response for the US is raising rates He steps in to grab high yield bonds with cash.
Simple. Short the stock market.
.
I just sent this to my 2 NJ Senators after Boehner blew it Friday night and Pimco has dumped T bills:
President Leadership is required to prevent IMF and G20 control over our economy – this summer!
Richard Nixon, a renowned stark hawk paved the way to relations with China. No way could this have happened with a liberal Democrat. This “China opening” resulted in many benefits. We feel one right now. They, along with the Federal Reserve have financed our increasing debt. However this may end very soon (think Summer) and a dollar collapse may lead to IMF and G20 control over our economy. This can result in a drastic change in life as we know it in the US. IMF/G20 may impose 50% or more entitlements cuts due to a bankrupt US. Our best chance to avert this is for our radical leftist President to come out and state:
My dear Americans:
Our economy may collapse in a few months due to our ever increasing debt. We can no longer borrow 43 cents of every dollar we spend this year. Our creditors may soon balk at buying T bills. They may have better investments elsewhere or need to address their own internal economic investments. Due to the economic consequences of Japan’s earthquake/tsunami, Japan’s leadership has informed me that their ability to continue to finance our debt has virtually disappeared. Our other foreign creditors have gotten to a point where financing US debt may result in steep investment losses, unless we act now.
We can not let our total government debt double 4 years to 18 trillion dollars. I will not allow this. I have painfully learned hard economic facts. I will do everything possible to improve our financial status to the point where our creditors will view the US T Bills as an investment that will result in positive returns. I therefore am calling for immediate action on Paul Ryan’s budget plan. Although I have some differences with it, I applaud Mr. Ryan’s meticulous economic analysis and genuine attempt to save our entitlements, and more importantly our nation as we know it. Let us work together, revise it so that it reaches broader support. Nevertheless let us agree on the trillions of dollars it calls for over the next decade. Once we pass this I am confident our creditors will view the US as a stable place to invest in.
If we do not act before this summer, time may run out. Why?
Our creditors have witnessed our fight to decrease our budget by only 1% or $38.5 billion. This is only good for no more than 10 days as we increase our total debt by 4 to 5 billion per day. Investors in China now may increasingly view internal investments as their middle class has been growing, instead of buying our T bills.
The dollar has lost 14% of its value past 10 months. This may accelerate. Our Fed has been averaging $4 billion a day financing our debt since November (our debt increases 4-5 billion per day). No wonder the 10 year T Bill is only 3.5%. If the Fed backs off QE2 in July, rates will increase and we may witness a severe US Dollar collapse. Pimco, the world's largest bond fund, already sold off all of their T Bills few months ago.
Let us not look back and blame wars, tax cuts, sincere but economically naive attempts growing entitlements. Let us not blame Democrats or Republicans. One factor for this stark change in policy is due to the economic consequences of Japan earthquake/tsunami. Japan’s leadership has informed me that they their ability to continue to finance our debt has virtually disappeared. Let us address the present and future and save our nation. I therefore have asked Secretary Geithner to closely work with Congressmen Ryan, Boehner, Pelosi, Senators Reed and McConnell to finalize a deal by the end of June. I have also asked several consultants to assist in this process. These consultants are our (or have been) our key creditors. They include investors from Pimco, T Rowe Price, Fidelity, sovereign debt managers from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, China.
pledge to you today that improving our economy is priority #1.
_________________________________________________________
Far fetched – yes but not impossible. Obama is bright. What gains can he envision in a bankrupt US? He must step out of the belt way box, take a deep breath, and unemotionally assess our paths. He may then conclude that he is in a rare position to embark on a history making mission to save the US economy. If so then history will judge him in very, very high regard.
Senator – Please present this to our president.
you lost slewie @ "Richard Nixon... paved the way to relations with China."
what a fukin nut job! get some help!
You do know your Senators are Frank Lautenberg & Robert Menendez, right?
Try starting your letter again:
My Dear Americans,
Organized crime has always played an important role in our critical labor unions!
lol...you actually think NeObama is at all engaged in what is going on?
Besides, the left will never tolerate any cuts in the payola for their constituency, nor can they de-fund the wars.
Look at it this way, running 1.5-2T deficits has worked so far, so why not keep trying it? They'll throw overboard some art funding and shit like that, but the core problems remain unaddressed
go to blog Economics501.wordpress.com to read more about Boehner blowing it, including my comments to Dick Morris.
I'm not quite sold. Work on your pitch.
Can someone explain to me why he'd add an assett like gold to a "bond fund?"
I agree with earlier posts. Gross is positioning for Bernanke to end QE2 early.
Markets and commodities tank. Everyone screams for Benny to recrank the presses, Ben says 'Told you so', then commodities spiral, Gold and Silver to the moon.
In that time $ rises, Gross buys in to PMs and stocks while low and cleans up.
He's just waiting to fill up along with JPM et al.
Hyperinflation here we come. Anyone else agree with this seemingly simplistic view?
1+
I've been saying this for the last 2 weeks. A massive sell off is coming. It will take out PM shorts... we're looking at a correction.... then a ride to the moon over the coming months.
i take it's time to go long the dollar.
Hello 41 dollar silver right out of the gate. APMEX SILVER jumped 15 cents in the first minute of trading.
41.15 ask
Hello 41 dollar silver right out of the gate. APMEX SILVER jumped 15 cents in the first minute of trading.
41.15 ask
In the next 30-60 days I think gold and silver will be down 5-10% from current levels (no positions in either metal, I am closed out)
I think NatGas will be up which I have just recently started buying into.
I think the dollar will be up.
well, bob_d, i hope yer right about the LNG. since there are no more markets, only interventions, i hope your lack of "positions" in Ag & Au does not indicate lack of the physical and that you are "all paper, all the way". maybe you own a ranch or some antique cars, or a shitload of expensive rifles, or some nice boxes of estate jewelry and 5 sets of sterling flatware, and maybe a coupla racehorses.
or, maybe yer net worth is so astonomical and well-diversified you truly have no worries except to gamble on the criminally-controlled crimex, for fun.
i'm not arguing about what you "think" will happen in certain markets. and, if you closed out paper PM's and rang the cash register, great!
but, if no phys. PM's, and just after-tax "cash"? nuf sed, friend...
Perhaps I sold too early...
Doesn't mean I can't buy back at a more advantageous price.
It is, what it is, brother.
I have never been hurt by taking a profit while it was rich in the money.
(phys held from years back)
If u started buying in the late nineties there is no shame in taking profits.
I only quadrupled my money in gold and silver before.cashing out. I am happy. You cant time everything perfectly.
I am a terrible market timer.
Than again, I get lucky once in a while.
no disrespect, bob_d, just a bit agape that you might be quite successful and not have some physical "insurance" and admittedly slewie-ignorant of yer reality, to boot.
jaw now closed. t.y.!
I agree with his thesis except natgas going up past its highs for the year.
Paper has done me incredibly well. I have owned lots of gold and.silver but only have a small silver position well.
Anytime people have gathered on a hill waiting on the.end of the world because some.guru said it was going to happen soon.....well....they have always been disappointed.
I think paper has its place in a diversified portfolio. We will see in ten years, but i dont think from this point forward silver and gold will have the best ten year return of any asset class. Buying silver at 41 is an incredible act of faith.
Inside report from Fukushima nuclear reactor evacuation zone
two japanese guys went by car to the nuclear power plant of fukushima and show the increasing radiation and the devastation of the evacuation zone. Its a real horror trip:
german site - just watch the video
Fukushima: drive to the deathzone
Thanks, that was incredible
ZH posted this last week.
My silver rocket just gapped open at $41.00 per ounce...
NEVER underestimate the replacement power of equities within a Zimbabwe-esque Spiral...and Bill Gross would have a tough time going long metals within a fucking BOND FUND...
The Cartel appears to have collared silver under $41 for now.
Blythe is flexing her brute force with an infinite supply of paper short tickets.
I reckon Billy boy could give them a run for a few days with his $73 billion
>> The Cartel appears to have collared silver under $41 for now
41.18 ask now @ kitco ... so much for collaring.
Yeah: $41.15. Looks like Blythe huffed and puffed and soiled her pants again.
I am very angry at Boehner and now more worried than ever about a US Dollar collapse. Today's politicians know zilch about finance. Many never produced a dollar for the economy. Incredible that politicians could not approve even a 2% budget haircut for a budget that has grown 28% in 2 years. The 38.5 billion is not a done deal. We must convince our representatives to vote it down, ask for more -- or have the IMF and G20 take control of our finances after dollar collapse and give all of America a 50% of more entitlements haircut.
Angry at boner?
His party controls 1/3 of the government.
He got an amazing deal, considering.
Be angry at the socialists and other leftards who control the majority of the government.
The tea party will reduce much much more if you will elect more of rhem in 2012 and get rid of the redistribitor in chief currently occupying the office
jeeez bbpitcher! wilya take a coupla tokes or drinks and just put a fukin cork in it, pls?
what you say may be more reality-based than 1/2 the psychoses, here, ok?
but the debbie downer mystique doezn't play well to this crowd, either, ok?
please be advised. peace.
In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt.
Fascinating. Gross has some brass cajones.
So, who still thinks that the bond market has not peaked?
Gross knows no matter how much quant easing the FED does, interest rates will go up.
Game over for bonds.
Unless he's an actor in some planned drama way beyond my conspiracy theory pay grade, Gross better stay out of small planes, cars and hottubs.
This worries me a little that gross.doesnt believe the end of qe2 is priced into the market.
I dont know how it couldnt be priced in. Ben has made it clear no qe3 right away.
How can the end of qe2 be a surprise and generate additional returns to his market timing strategy?
I guess we will see.
What way to play this? Go long TBT??
I think the end of qe2 is mostly priced in.
@"I think the end of qe2 is mostly priced in."
as is qe3. also armageddon, priced in.
No, TMV, or whatever the hell it is.
The 10 yr short.
(Sorry, just found out I'm allergic to the variant of mint I grow for catnip.)
I think the end of qe2 is mostly priced in.
I am long the TBT Sept. 40 call, trading at $2.40 and just $1.05 out of the money, this gets me through the June period and I think 2 more Fed meetings.
With M2 having surged over $1TR and those balances sitting idle as excess reserves at the Fed, could it not be that the Fed will "direct" its banking members to mobilize those reserves and begin quietly taking up the slack in treasury auctions left by their standing down? This would be tantamount to a stealth QE3. I'm not sure how this could be handled in the reporting, but I put nothing past those slippery buggers.
I must disagree with Gross...as long as Japan is WANTONLY printing Yen, there is an immense tailwind for all "risk" assets and for PMs and oil. The global yen carry is, more than anything else, what has driven EMs to where they are and this will likely continue.
If the Fed raises rates, this could paradoxically attract yen funding into our bonds. Irrespective of this, the US and various major debtors like Illinois cannot fund at substantially higher rates
But the FED will raise rates.
So fuck you
Well argued!
+++ these guys do have fun together and know how tf to "Z" too!
trav's real "hook" for me is: an immense tailwind for all "risk" assets... where he fails to differentiate between real assets and "paper" assets, while still mentioning PM's & oil!!!
well argued, indeed!
how is slewie positioned?
With his head up his ass...
This obviously makes getting to the office by 6:30 (PST) not a priority. Just call El-Arian, "Hey Muhammad, hows the cash? OK, be there soon"
BG is obv front running a "surprise" rate hike from Shalom n co a la JC "eurof*****" T. the only thing the Fed loves more than printing money is crashing the market with rate hikes
(Altho this time there will be backdoor QE3 for Dimon & friends)
Great way to engineer a selloff in PMs and oil while still printing trillions into JP/GS bank accounts
So, this is what Gross gets paid the big bucks for; to hold cash in a mattress for his clients. Oh well, I can’t say I blame him. It’s a sad state of affairs, though, when it’s the best option out there. If only someone could show me one retail investment product among the tens of thousands available that guarantees the purchasing power of my money after inflation and taxes, I would be all over it. I wonder, is that really too much to ask for?
A guarantee? Yeah that is too much to ask for.
Only two things are guaranteed in life....:.
Would that cah buy out some failed CRE for pennies on the dollar?
cash is king if Prints goes on strike!
the FEd will do anything to loot the US; that you can take to the BANK
I bought lots of junk silver jewelry this weekend ... about 16 troy ounces of 925.
Scrap buyer can't get enough silver.
yes, indeed! rivers of silver, now, maybe even flowing to blythe if she plays her hand a certain way, eh?
talked to a buddy, earlier, $550 profit, one day, on sterling. just hitting the right sale, and knowing his play. same guy said an estate sale blew out $2500 sterling in a heartbeat, just knowing how to price it, correctly, for the arbs.
rivers of silver. i said so over a month ago, too, when everyone "knew" what backwardization really means, even tho it seems, for some reason or other, pretty much gone, at least for now. i was in a coin shop picking off pre-'64 proof sets for melt + fitycentz, and just couldn't believe what i saw folks bringing in for cash, at $35+/oz! up 17%, even with rivers coming in!
personally, i think blythe, at least, is intelligent enuf to be long against elmer fudd when the crimex silver runs out. if she and the other criminal geniuses play it right, they will not be short, that month, and the fudds will not be able to declare force majeure. they do not have the right, do they?
i'm probably wrong. i usually am, and i never fall for the right woman, either. but, until blythe flames out across the sky, screw it! i want her! c'mere, blythe! wheee!
Eventually AAA corporate debt will yeild less than Treasury debt. Then the bankers will tell the governement what it can spend and what it can spend it on. And Jamie Dimon can send a note to the President just like old JP Morgan did to TR and tell TR to send his people to meet JP's people to work things out. A situation that is only informal now. And all the anti government people will look out and see that all we have is a new boss and the new boss wants everthing.
This is one of those posts that frankly, makes you wonder how different ZH is from CNBC. Screaming to ZH readers trying to put ants in their pants for months that the inflation buggy man is coming to get us, then tells us that PIMCO's holding cash is a protest on Bernanke. Wow Tyler, you have now become more full of shit than China's information bureau. Congratulations on achieving a new level of BULLSHIT.
unfortunately, ted, there does seem to be a bit of unreported inflation afoot and pimco does seem to be short T's and holding $71 Bil, cash.
so stipulated? or do you know better? if so, please advise, braniac!
if tyler has made a mistake in his factualities or his reportage, he can either admit it, or get his lights punched out by all & sundry, just like any other fukin zero, brainiac. Fight Club.
speaking of which, to attempt to hold tyler resp for either inflation or pimco's self-avowed cash position pretty much makes you just another moronic shitforbrained asswipe, doncha know?
I can't make any sense of your blatherings there, other than your ID name which seems highly justified.
First if you ("you" being PIMCO) think what Bernanke is doing is destructive to the U.S. dollar, the last thing on earth you would be holding is cash. Secondly, if you think inflation is an issue, you wouldn't hold cash or quote someone as "protesting government" for holding a large percentage of cash.
Thirdly, your mentioning Fight Club only shows your pansy like ditto-head following of Tyler Durden/Zerohedge without engaging your brain. I would say this makes you look like Robin the "boywonder" to Tyler's Batman, but the appropriate analogy is probably more like Batwoman, being that you are an empty skirt.
I see it going down something like this:
Gross, JP Morgan, GS, all take short positions in US bonds to the tune of 100 billion dollars.
TThey also buy CDS coverage on those bonds from AIG. Bonds Crash and it is called a black swan. Gov is forced to bailout AIG again, so they can pay the counter parties on their bearish bets on the US bonds.
Yuk, someone should back hand you for stating that! The thought of them getting away with that BS once again should genuinely piss off enough people that sincere organized violence would insue toward the federal government, probably by the states. I guess there was a reason for the executive order under Bush that placed the National Gaurd under the President's call.
Pimco is the lead, paid-in-advance government shill, ready to buy the first drink in the initial vigilante-raid bond collapse, and then solicit supporting purchases in the subsequent "Build America Federal Bond" program.
Or whatever they try to call the next level of fraudulent, fiat financing.
Watch gold (and treasury bonds) tomorrow when China dumps a few hundred Billion on the table.....
unhhh,... it already IS tomorrow, in china, Paulu. has been for several hours, too! gold is down $2.50 (kitco: 1472.50); silver up $.50 (kitco: 41.43) and the g/s ratio has plummeted another 75 "basis points" if you'll pardon the sloppy lingo, ok? link from merv burak's wonderful site & kudos for his work, too: Precious Metals Central - Gold Prices
do you mean they're gonna be selling T's and buying gold? if so, why not just say it, for pete's sake, you shithead? or do you mean they will be selling dollars, which might be "bad" for T's? kinda sick of the trollsters and their "innocent-yet-designed" never-ending ambiguities and deflections. really, shitforbrains! a clear sentence takes not 1 second longer, as we both know, unless you are a pretty sick person, eh? yes, oh asswipe, we shall watch as you command, for there will be "markets" in gold, USD, and bonds, just as you really tell us, asswipe! with china, too! gol-leee! thanks for telling us!!!
you may be dead right in another 15-20 hours, of course, whatever the fuk you are saying, ok? but right now, you just sound like an asswipe, if you can understand a simple critique of yer trolling, that is,... asswipe...
I am thinking that people can't be right all the time, and that if Bill Gross was correct before, doesn't mean he will get lucky twice in a row. Odds are he is very wrong.
OMG! they're everywhere! to trolls just punchin in, too: eat shit, lay eggs, and die young! nightnight, asswipes!
So if everyone knows that qe2 is going to end then why isnt it already priced into the market?
This may be the biggest non event of the year, and bill gross.has made mistakes before.
The beginning of hyperinflation and market tops.in commodities and.precious metals will look and feel the same to most people.
This may be a classic case of sell the news when qe2 ends, with tops established in real assets, for the time being at least.
What curriencies are Pimco holding in the 31% cash?? Just USD??
Perhaps PIMCO will follow others into liquidating it's flagship fund as it is no longer worthwhile to be involved in the sick masquerade ball known as markets that are now nothing more than Kabuki gone Wal Mart.
Meanwhile .. Bill .. cleanup on isle 7 -- Get to work bucket boy (and welcome to the flats here off South Main Street)
So how do I short the 30yr.?
Purchase and take physical delivery of precious metals.
The market operators ie banksters are driving the USD index down and pumping up everything else. This process will continue till there are no long positions left in the USD index and no short positions in any of the commodities, stock or currencies other than the USD.
The operators are then likely to take the long position on the dollar and short position on everything else. They would then use their money power to move the markets in the direction which would get them the maximum profit while screwing all other traders / hedge funds / investors.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
Hey TD, looks like you beat out the big's again and made a Fortune. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/10/pimcos-gross-betting-against-u-s-debt/?section=money_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_topstories+%28Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
Well done.
The lower echelons of a tyrannical regime who are responsible for (most likely) imposing unjust rulings against the oppressed masses are now scrambling over one another in a last-ditch effort to avoid their date at the hands of the lynch mob.
car loans
I heard the whole interview, and he said "if silver goes to triple digits this year that would make me think about selling. On the other hand, if the dollar is confetti while silver is $150, I'll keep my silver."
cheapest car insurance
It was the fault of the Japanese for allowing such a reactor to be built in that location without additional safety measures being required. That's the real story here. That and the shitty enforcement of already lax safety standards.
florida home insurance
All of these articles debating in/deflation are either disingenuous or misguided at best.
loans for bad credit