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Exhaustion Rate Hits New Record: More Than Half Of Unemployed Exhaust Benefits Before Finding A Job
According to the BLS, the exhaustion rate, or the number of people who have used up their benefits, and will no longer be receiving unemployment checks, has hit an all time high of 52.40% for August. This is a staggering number, and whats worse it was grown in practically a linear fashion with not even a hope of a second (third or fourth) derivative green shoot in sight. In fact, the deterioration in "employability" is accelerating. And yet assorted "pundits" claim the employment picture is improving. We wish them and their newsletters (and, heaven forbid, LPs) all the best.
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Which explains the bill in the house to extend the double secret emergency unemployment benefits (yet again) by 13 more weeks.
Can't have unemployed and very broke people roaming the streets and spoiling the Fed's illusion of a rip roaring recovery.
Well put CD. Don't need a paycheck to vote.
Good way to put it. 2010 gonna be one wild election.
The practical question I have about Congress' latest action is will that provide support to the heretofore falling continuing claims number? Any insights Dissonance?
Also, vacuum tubes, heh...good stuff. Saw some in the Smithsonian on a highschool trip, thats it :-)
No, continuing claims figures do not count those on emergency unemployment assistance.
CD,
It's called a barn burner of a recovery...haven't you been watching Kudlow?
I don't mean to sound insensitive, but I wish I could ride out unemployment. I'm own my business, unfortunately.
Are these people included in the basic unemployment rate?
The interesting thing will be how the IRS navigates it come tax time. I always wondered why they tax you on money they just gave you. In the meantime, TD, can you tell us who's gunning the SPY?
You heard it here first: Bloomberg is reporting the Chicago Cubs will declare bankruptcy! Americas team!? They now join GE, AIG, CITI, Goldman, Bear, Lehman Bros. What can an unemployed steroid injecting baseball player do? Collect unemployment? Beg for a free taxpayor stadium?
Why not? Yankee's got one from citibank! lol
The Ricketts family of TD Ameritrade fame just bought the Cubs from Sam Zell for like 800 million, which was a couple hundred million less than big Sam thought he was gonna get.
On the bright side however - maybe now they can dump Soriano's huge contract.
I wonder if that'll make in on to "My Boys" next season. (it's based around the cubs/ a sports writer)
They have been watching the sales of guns/ammo, as just published (again) this morning.
They know that the FINAL checks are being spent on these two items. Hurry and extend those FINAL checks, ad infinitum.
They know what awaits them: Dr. Celente -- "When People Lose Everything & Have Nothing To Lose, They Lose It!"
This index may need to be rescaled before year's end. It's damn near vertical slope
switching over to a logarithmic scale will ably flatten that chart right out, then... voilà... another green shoot and another trademarked victory for the bulls. lol
off topic questions.
when people say, for example, "second derivative" do they mean that literally as in the second derivative of the graph function or is that some financial metaphor?
The former--the graph itself.
what bs said. second derivative basically means the rate of change. so if the second derivative is improving, then it means the year-over-year stats are still down, but declining at a slower pace.
The Bloomberg article was laced with decidedly optimistic commentary. How any of it can be viewed in a positive light is beyond me.
There's an easy solution: GM will hire even more workers to build nothing.
Well, they're going to need a lot of people to handle the return line for the cars which will be coming back in 60 days.
That'll be cool!
I hear they provide excellent benefits.
This latest extension will only apply to states with an unemployment rate over 8.5%, of which mine (Virginia) and several others, will not be eligible.
When the unemployed masses from the ineligible states find out that uncle sugar has cut them off (but not their compadres from MI, CA, NV et all) I bet they won't be very happy.
Oklahoma is one of the ineligible states, at just near 7%. I have already exhausted my 26 weeks of initial benefits. I am six weeks away from exhausting my first extension. There is then a 13 week "federal" extension, which will get me through til March.
I have qualified for a job at Tinker AFB as a Sheet metal Mechanic, but they are raking me over-the-coals about my bad hearing. Funny thing is they are supposed to be a "Equal Opportunity" employer, and the paperwork I have filled out even has a code for "hard of hearing" #15.
So if I do not get this job because of my hearing, what recourse will I have to fight this?
What?
Contact these people: http://www.okdlc.org/
Bring hidden recording equipment with you and get them to admit that's why they're not hiring you. Then sue their sorry asses.
Haven't you heard? We don't need jobs!
still waiting for the day to arrive when we don't need food either.
That I could live with, cause then there would be no more sit-and-stink-up-the-room! :-)
link please? despite an "exhaustive" search i could not find this statistic on the BLS website. thanks.
http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claimssum.asp
This allows you to see stats for states and/or US as whole, and over a selected date range. The 52% quoted is the US total for latest month (08/09).
Unemployment insurance! Another form of welfare.
Disgusting Americans so dependent and weak.
In your country it's called the Dole!!!
Maybe you shouldn't judge other peoples countries.
In my country the people control the government.
In the US the bankers control the government and the government controls the sheep-people.
Looks like Yakov Smirnoff has a new gig.
LOL..presently performing in the Galapagos...
In USA, govt <3s you.
You think America is the only one with this type of system? I read somewhere that workers in Germany can get darn near their normal pay for almost two years after getting let go due to down-sizing!
Typical in the U.S. is 26 weeks. All these extensions are solely because of the downturn we are experiencing at this time. Normally there would be no extensions.
The extensions are only because of the lack of available work. I know, I am one of those trying to find a job in an environment of no jobs. If it was not for the extensions, I would already have received a NOD from my mortgage holder, and would already be 60 days late.
How many more of us are there who haved been kept above water by the extensions? Millions. Right now it is a good thing. I wish I did not have to rely on them, but I have been applying for jobs since January, and have mostly never heard anything back on any of them.
Sooner or later the benefits will expire, than the SWHTF. Its all just kicking the can down the road for now.
Underwater loser. You think it's OK to tax your neighbors who were smart savers and smart buyers so you can pay your mortgage that you were dumb enough to purchase at a hugely inflated price?
Do you have any idea what cutting you loses means? You embody the problem with this country right now.
So what, you were swindled by wall st. Don't f'in delay the inevitable. Sell all of your nick-knacks, Nascar memorabilia, and give your piece of garbage house back to the bank. Default on your credit card debt, car loan, and declare bankruptcy. All you have to do is wait 7 years until it disappears from your credit records. Truth be told there are so many of you that are in the same boat that it will only take 4 years until you're allow back in the credit club.
That's the way it works in this country. In 7 years we will be ramping up another bubble and you can jump onboard, all the wiser from your experiences.
You dumb people grasping at straws need a wake-up call and here it is:
"Hi, It's Tom Bodett for Motel 6, and we'll leave the light on for ya"
Wow. Man, you sound so cool and rich. Are you writing this on your solid gold computer inside your gigantic mansion whilst a gaggle of Thai ladyboys fondle your whithered ballsack?
Should not you have written "fiddle your whithered ballsack"?
I thought all zerohedgers were as you described? You know the uber cool wall st gang, best and brightest.
Fiddle? Good lord the strings would be murderously painful!
I don't think the zero hedgers are the uber cool Wall Street type considering what an oxymoron that description is. Have you seen some of the douche nuggets that infest that area? I prefer to think of most zero hedgers as escaped basement dwellers done good.
Done good(sic)? I doubt.
Has anyone made a dime from any info or projection from this site?
No. That coupled with the hosts cowardice is why I can answer that I have seen some of the douche nuggets that infest that area.
Cowards suk, know what I mean Booger? BTW, welcome to ZH.
I made a nice chunk of change on natural gas futures because of a chart I saw on ZH. Something like a 30% gain in a couple of weeks timeframe.
I, or should I say We, did not overpay for our house. We bought in 2005, and paid $91,000 for a three bedroom, two bath house at 1,500 sq. ft. Neighbors just bought an identical house last year for $112,000. So who overpaid?
And BTW, that is all we owe on, the house. No vehicle payments, no credit cards, no appliance bills, nothing. JUST THE HOUSE at $750.00 per month.
Can you say you are in better shape than we are? I bet not!
Oh Yeah, I am not a NASCAR fan! Can't stand that crap. Indy yes, Nascar no. But I don't have any knickknacks to sell off.
Come on try harder. Try to make people accept it. You can DO IT!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ2HcRl4wSk&feature=related
sorry, minimal sympathy here. capitalism only works when we acknowledge that life's not fair and sometimes shit happens. without these extensions, people will have more motivation to start a business or do some odd jobs. why not mow lawns or start a Mosquito Squad franchise? move to another state and make ball bearings for wind turbines? I dunno, but there is still a hell of a lot more opportunity here than in 99% of the rest of the world.
there's a great safety net in Belgium; that's why the nominal tax rate there was close to 90% when my friend came to the U.S. to work here instead.
i hope we don't turn into that as a country.
some truth to that statement, some not.
initial 26 weeks of unemployment is genuinely an insurance product, i.e. employers pay a premium (it is risk rated) to State unemployment insurance funds. after that, it is a transfer payment.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27513.html#ixzz0S2gu1ZVZ
Wow. If we had been doing some TA on this chart...mostly higher highs, higher lows...it was due for a breakout anyway!
FOUL !!
The exhaustion rate IS NOT "the number of people who have used up their benefits". Which should be obvious to anyone who knows the difference between a "number" and a "rate".
The BLS exhaustion rate is calculated as:
NUMBER of claimants losing their benefits /
NUMBER of NEW claimaints
Leaving aside the issue of this being a rather odd calculation, it should be obvious that a decrease in the number of new claims would cause the exhaustion rate to increase.
I would welcome an actual analysis of the unemployment statistics; posts like this one are best left to those who are more interested in misleading their listeners that enlightening them.
And your implication is? what that the claims are going down? Must be why they needed to jam through that extension. If you have a point make it, but the discrete esotericism is best left at home. You want a numnbeator denominator issue go comb through the houshold survey and the unemployment rate. Make sure not to miss the Number dropped out of the workforce number. Bye Bye Bye
the bulls must be listening to this every day-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAHODyEpm2w
Fed Tasks completed/WIP
Bail out banks Check
Bail out auto manufacturers Check
Bail out states Check
Backstop the financials Check
Bail out USPS Check
Bail out Fannie and Freddie Check
Bail out CRE WIP
Bail out media institutions WIP
Do nothing to lower dependence on foreign oil Check
Hope that asset bubble magically goes away Check
Put the screws to distressed, hard working citizens Check
To Do List
Move, disconnect land line and leave no forwarding address
Secretly buy gold Check
Anyone else think we're in a holding pattern until the Treasury auction? I don't see any way the Fed can let this one be anything other than stellar.
What I find interesting about this chart is the trend-line of the lows.
Since 1979, the exhaustion rate at the valleys has been on a steady incline.
Wait, so the children of today with their MTV, iPods and PS3's have less of a work ethic then generations past?
Hogwash! Hogwash I tell ya!
Case and point, we're all at work right now and yet still somehow blogging...... hmmm.......
You forgot: bailout for the Yankees and Mets (free taxpayor stadia),; bailout for the Cowboys (free 1 billion$ stadium from taxpayors). And coming real soon: bailout for the bankrupt Chicago Cubs ( guarantee a new free taxpayor stadium courtesy of the new Illinois corrupt governor). When baseball and football teams go bust, can the Us government be far behind?
There would be riots in Chicago if they made a new stadium.
For the "anonymous" whom might discredit posts here on ZH, might I suggest you go to the fact news service MSNBC. You'll feel better
+10 lol
While I understand there are several other factors why the stock markets should be going the other way right now, there is one thing to consider about the employment situation. There has never been so many blue collar and even low level office jobs that just go away and never come back due to automation / technology improvement. It is sad, but true. There are skilled jobs that still have to be done by hand and those will actually rise in demand, but increasing amount of unskilled labor will simply be done by software/robots. Outsourcing most of the manufacturing to Elbonia actually benefited US because it forced the society to adjust. On the other hand, the amount of produced assets stays the same or increases with the better efficiency so we should be able to afford keeping more and more people on benefits. Unabomber said as the machines take over, sitting on the couch and keeping your mouth shut will become a viable profession. He may have been right. As soon as they start paying people to not reproduce, the game is pretty much over for humanity.
Unemployment insurance is one reason that savings have been low. With socialism, whether at the corporate level, or the personal level, the only thing to do is seek risk, because if you are wrong: No problem the friendly government has your back.
Buy more CDSs, CDOs, junk bonds, momo stocks, build a house in a flood plain, ride a motorcycle without a helmet, rob a little old lady, have no savings, no family, no children, have sex with hundreds. The government has your back.
US unemployment and it's measurement
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition. What most of us think of as the unemployment rate.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif
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