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Existing Home Sales Jump 10% M/M To 4.53 Million, 3rd Worst On Record, 10.7 Months Of Inventory Supply
The NAR reported September existing home sales came at 4.53 million units, a 10% jump from the prior downward (of course) revised number of 4.12 million, compared to expectations of 4.3 million. Keeping this number in perspective, it is only the 3rd worst in history. The September median price for existing homes declined by 2.4% to $171,700 from a year ago. Most notably, 35% of existing sales were distressed sales compared to 34% in August. And since all of this data is for September, and thus complete noise now that the entire home sale perspective is thoroughly distorted thanks to foreclosuregate, none of this data is relevant at all. What is relevant, is that inventory of homes for sale dipped slightly from one year to 10.7 months worth of supply, or 4.04 million units. Look for this number to surge shortly as little to no transactions get done now that nobody is willing to actually insure home sales titles.
More from the ever optimstic Larry Yun of the NAR:
"A housing recovery is taking place but will be choppy at times depending on the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium. But the overall direction should be a gradual rising trend in home sales with buyers responding to historically low mortgage interest rates and very favorable affordability conditions."
And some more truthiness:
"Vacant homes and homes where mortgages have not been paid for an
extended number of months need to be cleared from the market as quickly
as possible, with a new set of buyers helping the recovery along a
healthy path. Inventory remains elevated and continues to
favor buyers over sellers. A normal seasonal decline in inventory is
expected through the upcoming months.”
The year-over-year geographic breakdown is as follows: there is a staggered distribution, with the biggest drop in sales occuring in the most popular $100-$250K bucket, while the ultra luxury segment of $1MM+ actually increased.
Full report
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among other news, Ben has an affair with a moose
http://i.imgur.com/mWx2r.jpg
Ben is impotent...
There will be no moose sex for Ben...
Can't you tell from Fed action?
soooo, you're saying better than expected?! risk on bitchez!
Funny how the not seasonally adjusted monthly sales is the third lowest of the entire year (behind only January and February 2010, traditional slow months), and came in at 379K vs. 468K in Sept. 2009. In other words, sales are 8.5% lower than last month (August was 414K), and 19% lower than the same time last year. Median prices also printed lower.
My senator said she hates it when you use math to make your point.
Bullard on the fence.. and he opens his mouth at 1:30 p.m. today.. the only real dissenter to QE2.. perhaps will bring the markets down:
http://bostonwealth.blogspot.com/2010/10/so-is-qe-ii-going-to-happen.html
No need for QE2
Pretty soon the gubermint is gonna start setting homes on fire just to keep prices from falling further.
You've given me a brilliant idea on how to save the Country! All we have to do is to ship all of our empty houses over to China! We've offshored our jobs, so it's fitting that we offshore all of our foreclosures.
This will also help our trade deficit. And those crazy Chinese are in need of tons of empty houses to go with the empty cities that they are madly building!
Woo hoo! America is saved!
No need to ship houses. Looks like the plan is to fill those houses with people willing to work for 30 cents/hour, so we can compete with China. You would be surprised how many people can fit in your average 1500 sq. ft. three bedroom, two bath home. I guess not everyone has the opportunity to watch them empty out drop houses in Phoenix every night on the news. They can easily house 50-60 people in that sized home.
Time to settle into the ole 3 point SPY range for the next five hours.
This statement alone is a farce. Only 10.7 months of supply on hand? Please, don't insult my intelligence by claiming this is a realistic view of the actual number of homes for sale. I drive by developments that are finished and vacant.
Just because the properties don't have "for sale" signs in front doesn't mean they aren't on the market. I know for a fact that you can purchase one in the NY minute by contacting the bank. But they aren't counted as "supply" because they aren't officially "for sale".
Bullshit.
Thanks for adding that perspective. I wasn't aware that it was that bad -- or that fraudulent!
It all depends upon your definition of "fraudulent". The banks claim that since the higher powers (meaning the various regulatory agencies) are not forcing them to mark to market these vacant properties, they have every right to decide when and where to offer these homes for sale. Meaning nothing is for sale until they receive an offer. Then it's immediately available for sale.
This is all a complicated dance of self deception carried out under the full understanding that since perception is reality in a fractional reserve fiat currency world, if "we the people" continue to lose faith, it will be a disaster for everyone. Since those who hold the power make the rules, they will of course make the rules that allow themselves to survive the longest.
The next leg down has begun. More and more of the 99'ers, those who have exhausted not only their 99 weeks of unemployment but also their savings, IRA's and 401(k)'s, are beginningto become desperate. As they spiral further into the abyss, they will take many along with them. Hang on because the next drop is going to be an unmitigated disaster, regardless of QE.
We must understand that QE is designed to enable the financial elite to survive, even if just for a while longer, not average Joe and Jane.
You didn't see the article over the weekend?
Webster's has taken the word "fraud" out from the dictionary. Claiming that beginning in the late 20th century, fraud didn't exist any longer. "Fraud" has been replaced with "ferreal."
Spot on, Cog.
I also saw the 60 minutes segment on the 99ers. Maybe adding this word to the US Lexicon will awaken even more people.
As far as the 10% surge in existing home sales, I would like to be first to propose that Ben Bernanke has started buying neighborhood houses both for the FED and squeezing a few on the side for himself. :-) Maybe they figure since they will own every Fannie and Freddie mortgage by the time this is all over, they might as well own the actual houses too?? :-)
Big Ben Real Estate? Big Ben used Autos specializing in GM and Chrysler, and if the Poultry industry takes a hit, I guess we can expect Ben to start buying Chicken Coups. :-)
Can we really expect anything other than GREAT news for the rest of the week and into the election next week? Friday's GDP = 6.3 with tremendous growth expected to continued (later revised down to 0.3, but tremendous growth will still be expected).
Hunter,
I was just going to ask CD if he'd seen the 60 minutes story last night.
I thought the last comment in the story, by the lady 99er, was a bit chilling: "my lifestyle won't ever be the same. EVER."
Yup, sure did.
I found it interesting that the lady collecting the discarded plastic and glass bottles felt her biggest competition came from the local homeless man.
10.7 months assuming BEST CASE scenario like 2006 real estate bubble mania days?
The '10.7 month supply' means nothing at all, no context! A 10.7 month supply of homes today could be 10 homes!!
"10.7 months of supply on hand"
anything over 8 months of supply means there is downward pressure on prices (more supply than demand) so it doesn't really matter that the number is horribly low
Cog Diss, my whole family is in real estate, and I havent heard of any of them selling a home in recent memory!
10.7 month supply....based on WHAT?
+1 10.7 years of supply is closer at anything like existing prices in the midatlantic, and yes, I know, stuff is selling in the Washington burbs. So what?
Anecdotal - A drinking buddy just reduced his McMansion (20 foot ceilings, second price cut) from $500,000 to $340,000. Might actually sell in that range. Not financial stess, but he is in poor health, recently divorced, why not let the ex take half the hit? Reality is starting to intrude.
I've been expecting a free fall for 2 years. Looks like we might be getting there.
That is much closer to the truth. Don't forget that the idiotic home builders are still adding 700K homes to the supply each year! The "shadow" inventory is huge in real estate (both residential and commercial). Banksters are in denial with the government's blessing.
All strikingly familiar with BLS considerations of "discouraged workers".
If a U3 tree falls in a strategic default forest, does it make a sound?
Very nice analogy.
NAR tracks their inventory which is a very large sample of a national data base including all 50 states. Does it count 100% of all homes? Of course not.
I care not how many homes are for sale, only who counts them.
I shared this elsewhere but since y'all brought it up:
From "60 Minutes" Sunday Oct., 24
99 Weeks: When Unemployment Benefits Run Out
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/21/60minutes/main6978943.shtml
Fromt the video/article:
"The people in the group are the faces of unemployment in Silicon Valley, people in their 40s, 50s and 60s who thought they had done everything right: earned a degree, stayed with their company, saved for retirement.
"I'm curious. How many PhDs in this room?" Pelley asked. "One, two, three, four… several. Now leave your hands up. How many master's degrees? Oh boy. And how many of you went to college. Everybody keep your hands up if you have a college degree, a master's degree or a PhD."
Many in the room had their hands up.
"How many of you expected to retire from the company where you were working?" he then asked.
"More than half the room," he noted."
To me what's worse is that these people aren't learning that the system scammed them and now they are putting kids into colleges and letting their own kids go into massive debt with no guarantee that they'll graduate with anything but a piece of paper that says they graduated. When all of these people wake up, turn their back on the system and tell their children not to participate in the scam of debt slavery then a real change will happen.
you know things are bad when CD uses a cussword
LOL
So am I the contrary indicator?
If so, what am I indicating other than my frustration with my fellow man and his never ending desire to engage in false hope seeking?
fellow man has never changed but the rest of his company has gone to hell
Heard of a case of a family "moving in" to a bank owned home (without the bank's knowlege). If this is common, this could also be depressing sales :-)
Meanwhile the 'market' has gone full retard, chasing 70 P/E stocks.
WTF I can even understand supporting weak stocks, although its still BS, but SEVENTY P/E stocks like AMZN so Bezos can cash out a couple more billion?
WHATEVER! House of cards in a hurricane at best.
In his free weekly newsletter, John Mauldin has written about this new mortgage debacle twice in two weeks. He calls it Subprime Debacle Act 2. You can read them here:
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo101510
http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo102310
Since his newsletter is free and has well over 1 million subscribers, you can sign up for it and receive it free. It is ALWAYS good!!
It has been interesting to watch the maturation of John Mauldin over the past few years.
Two years ago he was calling for a "muddle through" recovery, meaning not terribly pessimistic nor terribly optimistic. Now that he is taking a closer look at the fissures and gaping holes that are visible everywhere he looks, he's becoming extremely worried that there are larger forces at work here and the masters of the universe just might know this and yet they're still driving the road to hell.
He's slowly beginning to distrust those that in the past he always believed ultimately had "we the people's" best interest in mind. It's always ugly to watch an ideologue lose his or her faith. Especially when the process occurs in public. To his credit, he's had the balls to continue to explore the change of heart when so many of us would simply lie.
"interesting to watch the maturation of John Mauldin over the past few years"
I stopped reading him because he continued to spew "muddle through" blather when it was so obvious that the only thing we would be muddling through was all the BS being spewed by bankers, the govt and their spokesmen
+1 Maybe he's come to his senses now.
I almost stopped as well. But he's beginning to wake up, albeit it slowly. He is controlled to some extent by his readership, who for the most part expect him to say and be a certain way. I find that his personal interviews, both TV and radio, are remarkably more pessimistic than his written newsletter.
He still has a relapse now and then. A few weeks ago newsletter being an example. Minimizing potential problems has been a hallmark.
Wow, Theres no recession. Time to finance a VW Jetta. Life is good.
$15,995 Jetta
License plates "Mine" and "Mine 2"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwLG7YKfxtw
I just sat down with my realtor last weekend to discuss the non-sale of my condo in Northern New Jersey (again). It has been on the market for six months without a single firm offer. In our local market, there are now 16 condos listed for sale and one condo sold (a short sale) during the last four months. Even by his math, that’s over 60 months of inventory. 10.7 months of inventory huh, I guess real estate must really be booming somewhere.
"16 condos listed for sale"
and remember that new construction is typically not listed on the MLS so the "for sale" count is low
in Boulder, CO there are 390 units for sale at the Peloton on Arapahoe but none of these units show on the MLS
last time I checked there were 17 months of condo supply in Boulder if you include the Peloton units
3rd worst ever is a green shoot! 2nd derivative bitchez
Larry Yun echoes what I have been saying for few weeks - slow, gradual improvement. At some point the crowd here is going to have to acknowledge that fact. We aren't falling off a cliff and we're not flying high. Just very painfully slow recovery.
This is yet another economic indicator supporting that call.
is that "Wanger" or "Wanker"?
Reversion to the mean puts prices 20% below today's (at least where I live). Typically they over-shoot so it wouldn't surprise me if they fell another 30%. Where I live, the only rental property sales that close are deeply discounted. There are many, many properties that have a high wishing price and just sit and sit and sit.
Honestly - I haven't seen any non-manipulated data for a long time. The reality is that you have a) massive inventory being held off market by banks and b) the government involved in almost every mortgage in the country with private lending all but dead. I'm not even referencing the now rolled off homebuyer credits or foreclosuregate thing here. If the market was indeed fundamentally healthy market, even one that was bumping along the bottom - neither A nor B would exist. Given A/B are still happening (stimulative) and we aren't seeing any kind of real rebound should tell you that we aren't close to fundamentals.
Want to see the global financial markets explode and send everybody back to Q4 2008...have the government exit the housing market. There is no health here. I'm not saying everything is definitely going to hell and home prices are dropping another 20% or more, but there is no fundamental health or bottom here. We can try to extrapolate it from some very manipulated and raw data, but pull back the curtain and the wizard is frantically at work.
I won't argue that you might be technically correct Harry, but as far as my neck of the woods.....no way. No how. Not even close.
Just very painfully slow recovery.
This is possible, but the doomsayers can refute that the "recovery" is sustainable:
1. How many trillions did it take for the economy to "recover"? How long can we continue with this profligate spending?
2. What happens to the Bush tax cuts next year and how will that affect economic activity?
3. Mortgage-gate?
4. 70% of the economy is consumer driven, we have U6 (these same consumers) at 17%. We have a structural unemployment/economic crisis. What is the plan to deal with this, ObamaCare?
5. What will QEII (if it happens) do to input prices such as oil and commodities? Does $100 oil and increasing staple prices help the economy grow?
6. Our recovery is fragile, what happens if/when we experience another "black swan" type event?
7. What do we see driving economic growth in the next 5 years? Exports? Housing? Credit expansion? Next Internet or PC boom?
There is enough uncertainty to be skeptical, and enough risk to be negative. There are also enough positives to be guardedly optimistic!
sschu
and those minor war costs
and the reasons behind them
No mention of the amount of shadow inventory sitting as high as 7M units by some estimates. Stuff that number in your calculator Yun!
Hilarious that the only segment with sales growth is $1M+
Greater Los Angeles is the breeding ground for rank overpricing the past decade. LA is where the bubble is sloooooowly deflating.
www.doctorhousingbubble.com
Dr Housing Bubble is top notch...
Facts with analysis.. "Real Homes of Genius" is too much.
I like that guy...
I understand that California is his stomping ground, but I wish he'd take a more comprehensive stance. He sorta has a slam dunk with CA, no?
Across the street from me in little town Iowa is a huge Queen Ann victorian. Sold in one week for 250k. See the new owners trimming and cleaning. I can't for the life of me figure out why Iowa at the start of winter. One day I'll walk over and meet them. Probably after blowing a foot of snow off my sidewalk and looking for 20 bucks to do thiers.
Maybe a former (executive/gov't/etc.) who knows when (not if) TSHTF, it would be nice to be located in Iowa, near food sources, instead of lower Manhattan, DC, LA, etc.
Maybe worth the $250k just to have a little peace of mind as the system implodes.....
"after blowing a foot of snow off my sidewalk and looking for 20 bucks to do theirs."
Lndmvr: Black Market Entrepreneur... +1111
Nice job. Resourceful and classic...
Oh, take a 1 oz silver coin instead of the $20 Bennie-Buck...
Here's what stands out to me: "...it was the biggest monthly gain in 28 years!"
Not too shabby.
Only "Numb Nuts" Yun is More Wrong on RE Than Cramer...
"September from a downwardly revised 4.12 million in August, but remain...
...19.1 percent below the 5.60 million-unit pace in September 2009"
"The median price in the Midwest was $139,700, down 5.2 percent from September 2009."
"The median existing condo price was $165,400 in September, down 6.2 percent from September 2009."
"The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $171,700 in September, which is 2.4 percent below a year ago"
Response to another RE shill...
"Hurry buy today! Don't miss out! Act NOW while supplies last!"
Whatcha selling Harry?
Used cars, used cell phones, used stereos or used mortgages?
Sometimes I think you have some semblance of intelligence, and then you go and say shit like this.
CNBC posted an article earlier today that said, basically,
that as soon as the housing market hits the real bottom,
then it will start rising again.
I wish I could get paid to write stuff like that ....I'd be so rich!!!!
Wait a second......Cramer said the housing market bottomed in June 2009. Is CNBC openly contradicting it's most famous oracle??
Down 19.1% from September 2009...
YoY bitchez... MoM is for saps and MBS buying suckers...
Calculated Risk
"Sales in September 2010 (4.53 million SAAR) were... 19.1% lower than September 2009 (5.6 million SAAR)."
"Ignore the NAR spin... The ongoing high level of supply - and double digit months-of-supply are the key stories."
Blow your propaganda elsewhere NAR, National Ass-hole Realtors.... Lawrence Yun, what a Geithner Numb-Nuts...
It's the bottom, and this means gold will drop big, surely back to 200
Robo, JW can you back me up on this please
...crickets
I am glad that I rent.