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Existing Home Sales Plunge 27.2%, Record Drop, Trounce Expectations Of 13.4%, Lowest Number Since May 1995

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Hello Double DIPression my old friend. 3.83 million sales on 4.65 million expectation. Previous 5.37 million revised to 5.26. The chart says it all: lowest sales since May 1995, months supply largest since 1999.

 

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Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:04 | 539991 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Nice to see we never got out of the first dip.

Feds are also trying to buy what everyone is selling.  PPT was on alert for the day.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:10 | 540022 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

They are on double-secret alert.

Mortgages lowest level ever, prices at 10 year lows.. what a bargain.. still  no buyers.

So maybe, just maybe, the labor market is affecting the housing market.. Who would have thunk it??.. ;)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:41 | 540101 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Prices may be at decade lows, but they are nowhere near where they need to be for buyers in my neck of the woods (Mountain West).  

Sellers (or their brokers) are still in Oz, proud of their endless supply of trophy houses and zero sales.  It has been vindicating talking to some who thought I was a fool for not buying long ago.  I have a good house almost paid off, but as usual I get to pay for someone else's houses in Kalifornexico and New York.

Also, it's no secret anything built the last 10 years is trash, and one can expect depreciation far and away on poor construction alone.  Yes, I said depreciation on that asset.

Remember:  "No one saw this coming."  All lies.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:43 | 540168 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Maybe I could sell my home one front door, one kitchen cabinet, one bidet at a time. Wait a minute, I know what I can do. I'll ebay it.

Bet that's the first time ebay has been used as a verb. :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:53 | 540202 RockyRacoon
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:00 | 540227 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

I never was a trend setter. Maybe I should narrow it down to first on ZH? :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:11 | 540271 DarkAgeAhead
DarkAgeAhead's picture

Hmm how about the first to say, "Goldman Sachs got ZeroHedged, bitchez!"...

Or "I ZeroHedged the shit out of that trade..."

 

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:22 | 540319 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Much better. Six Zero Hedge points are hereby awarded to DarkAgeAhead.

I have no idea what you can do with them other than to brag that they were awarded. But in the zero sum game of Zero Hedge life, you seem to be Ahead. :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:34 | 540547 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Hey Ted, I got this hot new joke. Ted everyone's heard that. Boy, I really CD'd that one. ))-:'

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:36 | 540361 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Or "I ZeroHedged the shit out of that trade..."

I like the way you verbed ZeroHedge. Hey, I just used verb as a verb.

Metaverb, bitches!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:15 | 540492 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

+1 (& -1 junk flag).

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:54 | 540206 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

CD, I might suggest Craigslist if you havn't considered it.  

I have been amazed at what I have been able to unload for a 5-minute listing and a cell phone photo.  Plus the personal interaction is a nice touch (I enjoy haggling).

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:41 | 540380 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Eh, last year I sold over $1MM in RRE in F'ing Central Florida through Craigslist, sold them between July and September, and have been confident I topped out of the market at trend... been taking a little grief over the 8k credit bouning the market.. but I am vindicated today.

 

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:24 | 540519 minus dog
minus dog's picture

Those of you who are still new to the whole craigslist thing... be careful selling things to people at your own home - meet in a public place instead.  Particularly if you're in WA, OR, or CA.  This seems to be the epicenter when it comes to craigslist related home invasions, thefts, etc.  

People still try to pull the "everything at X address is free, we moved and we're not coming back" trick, for safety in numbers while pillaging your home.  Also popular to have a woman show up, then her male buddies jump you after the door is open.  They will travel hundreds of miles to pull this crap.

Also - if you list fixtures and building materials without a photo, others may assume it's a crank post and show up to pillage.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:46 | 540181 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Your "neck" of the woods isn't alone.  Prices in my hometown could still use a good 25 to 30% beheading.

And your point of construction is correct, but severely understated.  As someone with a background in construction, some the the things I've seen done (not done?) during the construction of "high end" homes is appalling.  I wouldn't live in some of these homes if they were given to me because even if they don't collapse outright, the costs to maintain them going forward will be absurd.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:53 | 540199 romanko
romanko's picture

+1000

Plywood has been replaced by chipboard.

Roof shingles now fiberglass-based instead of tar.

Chinese drywall, electrical components, pipe fittings.

Faux this, manmade that, "engineered" materials...

I could go on and on.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:58 | 540219 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Romanko, funny you should bring up Chinese electrical parts. 

I had my first light switch wear out -- less than 8 years old.

This can't bode well for the retail home improvement chains peddling this junk.  

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:03 | 540236 romanko
romanko's picture

Poor parts quality, from homes to cars to TV's and appliances - it conveniently hides inflation.

Cheaper things for the same price = less utility for the same $ = inflation. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:00 | 540866 Kayman
Kayman's picture

We are living in hyperinflation right now. Now of the Chinese crap lasts, it costs money to replace the part and money to pay the labor to do it.

Our leaders are idiots.  We owe long term debt for short term garbage.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:18 | 540306 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

I guess what really burns me up is to see poor quality work become the norm all around me.  I work at a General Contracting firm--commercial only, thank (insert diety here)--so I don't deal with it directly, but still.....

I never figured out how it could happen that you have to go to "school" and get a "license" just to be a hair stylist, but any jack-ass speculator can be responsible for constructing the buildings which are supposed to provide protection and comfort to my fellow citizens.  Sure, there are "inspections" performed by the city/county/state jurisdictions, but most all of the inspectors are idiots who can't read the prints from which you are building.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:31 | 540551 minus dog
minus dog's picture

To be honest, a lot of the people making the prints can't read the prints either.  It's not a structure that's been designed, it's just a bunch of boxes laid out on the paper.  Not much more than the brochure that an apartment complex will give you showing their layouts.  Sure, they'll have an engineer look over a few of the important parts to specify things that span distances, otherwise they'll leave things up to the builders to figure out.  

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:04 | 540247 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Don't forget Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and the other 45 states.

 

Here in New York (Rochester) home prices are actually appreciating in most areas since our lovely property taxes kept our values low.

 

My little 2,400 square foot 1925 colonial with .5 acres was purchased in 2005 (!!) for approx. $110k and a similar house just sold down the street for $134k.

 

So, New York is over 400 miles from Buffalo to Long Island, but hey, whatever!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:24 | 540332 Don Gorgon
Don Gorgon's picture

New York?  Most residential properties in New York have do not have conforming loans and typically buyers put down alot more than in the rest of the country due to coop board requirements and the simple fact that New York buyers have a lot more cash to put down.  If you're paying for anything its failed new developments that are living the extend and pretend life. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 15:21 | 541032 caconhma
caconhma's picture

One can only wonder how stupid and incompetent our first black president and his Zionist fascist masters are.

The more they corrupt our economy including the real estate and financial markets the more violent will be the purging process.

Oh shit, once again they force the history to repeat itself but this time the USA will replay  either the Soviets in 1990s or Germany in 1930s. In both case, the Parliament buildings were burning.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:24 | 540076 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@firstdivison

Yeah, but that second derivative was fun, huh?

 

@Howard Beale

Wherever you have been old friend, would love to hear from you.  This post put a thought in my head.  Some ZH merchandise with Pres. Obama's face and the caption, "I spent $2T and all I got was this lousy second derivative."

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:33 | 540127 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

"I spent $2T and all I got was this lousy second derivative."

Instant classic. 

But sales of the T-shirt (3rd derivative) are up!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:43 | 540166 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

BTW Baltic Dry was up 3% today.  So I think tomorrow will be a 5% drop.  Right now I am rolling naked in all my puts felling how smooth and lovingly they are.  Oh wait there's one of my AAPL and BKS puts stuck in my crack.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:40 | 540377 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

join the club.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:47 | 540413 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

Hello Reggie,

I am eagerly awaiting any update you want to provide to your nonpaying fans...

You are defintely moving up my internal metascale awareness, at about 10:02 I was thinking, hmm, should check out Reggie's take on this...

Now the question is how to make wealth off this downturn...

Heading to a powwow over this at lunch in an hour to discuss this...

regards

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:15 | 540693 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Now the question is how to make wealth off this downturn

 

That seriously is the question?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:10 | 541170 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

The mindset that buried society in the first place.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:03 | 541528 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

There is more money to be made from the destruction of a country than from its creation.

                  -A butchered Rhett Butler quote

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:16 | 540496 benb
benb's picture

Reg –For sure…Wait until 2011-12 to get those 1982 priced deals on RRE in many outlying areas.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:02 | 539993 docj
docj's picture

Recovery Summer!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:14 | 540030 YourAverageDebtSlave
YourAverageDebtSlave's picture

No DOW 10,000 hats this morning?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:16 | 540037 docj
docj's picture

Heh - the FedCo Plunge Suppressor 10,000 is going to be working overtime today!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:59 | 540224 Young
Young's picture

Greenspan: "The people must not lose faith in the stock market!"

Ron Paul: "They're already gone and not returning"

Bernanke: "We'll see about that after another 1,5 trillion down the black... uh, i mean quantative easing"

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:37 | 540574 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

ever notice "quantitative easing" and "utter total bullshit" share the same number of syllables

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:45 | 540175 Shocker
Shocker's picture

This is really insane, the gov. is now lying to us with theses numbers. What is going on here. There is absolutely ZERO chance we can this bad of a housing number, we are in a recovery, and creating jobs. It is amazing they would put out false numbers, just to drive the market down.. Insane world

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:03 | 540000 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Red shoots!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:15 | 540032 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

stop- I might laugh till I bleed

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:04 | 540002 Double down
Double down's picture

Did I just see Dow 10 000?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:10 | 540021 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i thought i just saw nine thousand something

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:04 | 540004 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

quelle flush

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:04 | 540005 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

thats amazing im truly impressed. the bow just dipped under the waves big time. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:04 | 540008 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

I love forwarding charts of this type to family members, helps them grasp what's happening.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:17 | 540040 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Two of my family members now block my e-mails. No kidding. And I restrain myself to only one chart a month to friends and family. If they can't see it, it ain't real.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:27 | 540091 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I don't even try to explain anymore; just go about my business of hunkering down and let my family wonder what on earth I could be thinking.

I recently sent my little neice a shiny new Silver Eagle dollar for her 1st birthday, hoping her parents might think about it.  In fact, I got her a whole roll and plan to keep sending them for the next 19 birthdays.  Probably too late now to make my point. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:30 | 540107 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Funny.  Silver Eagles are the planned Christmas presents for all the nieces and nephews this year.  I suppose I'd better take care of that soon or I'll be over budget.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:41 | 540159 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I gave a couple of silver eagles to the child of a friend who was getting married.  Happily, that particular family already knows the value of silver.  My neighborhood is set to survive between the two of us.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:40 | 540375 merehuman
merehuman's picture

312 people (strangers to me) in my community are owners of one ounce silver. I still have 350 left. Now i am holding on to the rest. That silver and my truck is all i got left. Should have gave the truck away instead. My girlfriend thinks i am a nut, me too, but my heart said to do it.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:11 | 540484 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One or two of those (no longer) strangers will step in and help you when you need it the most and you expect it the least. That's how Karma works and you're on the positive side of the balance sheet.

Give away what you have so that you may receive what you need, a concept that's lost in a consumer society but has roots going back thousands of years.

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 02:03 | 542381 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

If there's a ray of sunshine in the midst of all of this fuckery, it's that local communities might just live up to their literal names again, which is worth infinitely more than the stupid pieces of paper that we're carrying around anymore.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:51 | 540423 litoralkey
litoralkey's picture

My grandfather, a great uncle, and a great great uncle gave me a silver dollar every year for Hannukah.

I consider my self extrmeely lucky for having been sent over to their houses on Sundays and hearing their tales about interwar Poland and the US Great Depression.

However I don't think I'll ever part with those coins, as all three men have passed on.

Cheers to you for doing the right thing here... it will be long appreciated...

Wed, 08/25/2010 - 07:24 | 542491 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

When we're young we don't know why that stuff matters but most of us know that it does somehow.  They told you those stories hoping you'd be able to see the conditions coming and do something to protect yourself.  I know you know that.  Humans make the same mistakes over and over, get into the same shit generation after generation, history rhymes.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:29 | 540104 mephisto
mephisto's picture

One for you Cog Diss: the cataclysmic fall in home sales was predictable and was predicted, and published on a highly respected blog:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/lawler-existing-home-sales-con...

Meanwhile Wall Street had wildly bullish overestimates as we know.

Here's the nice part. When the NAR released the data, apparently home sales fell 'as expected'.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/08/ehs_fall

So I guess the only people who werent expecting the home sales to fall to 1995 levels were the professional highly paid Wall Street monkey buybuybuy unicornomists.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:31 | 540115 Ragnarok
Ragnarok's picture

The problem is many of my family members did quite well in the stock market the last 20 years (minus the 2008 crash) and are convinced that they can wait for the recovery in high yielding commodity stocks. They don't seem to understand that they'll lose their principal and potentially that dividend by the time this sucker bottoms.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:38 | 540145 svendthrift
svendthrift's picture

Yes, I received a lecture on Friday about how Citi is the buy of a lifetime and is the most well run bank on earth. Housing is "coming back".

Last night I saw a TV show about real estate agents in LA. Some 20 year old punk with a mop for a haircut. I can't believe these shows find viewers.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:51 | 540194 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Funny thing is that I simply send a chart with no comments attached. Just a chart. The ones who do respond send paragraphs of cut and paste articles and opinions back to me, often with the chart pulled out of the original e-mail.

The thing is that they aren't trying to convince me of anything. They're trying to convince themselves that I'm wrong and they're right. Of course, their "opinion" is not their opinion but someone else's imported and adopted as their own because it sounds better than anything they could hope to come up with.

We all suffer from confirmation bias. All of us. I've actually started an article on this subject and hope to publish soon. Briefly, the more certain I am that I'm right, the higher the probability becomes that I'm wrong. And the most dangerous word in the English language is "obviously".

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:11 | 540268 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

The probability that one is wrong is zero.  In the instantaneous experience, one requires a certain truth set in order to function and receive the experience as it was meant to be recieved.  Everyone's truth is not the same.  One plus one does not equal two for everyone all the time and that is the way it is.

Sorry, but this is all "wrong." /snort/

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:30 | 540338 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

On the philosophical and metaphysical stage, every one's reality is "correct" for them all the time. This is actually why I always talk about perception being reality. I've been thinking about 7 billion slightly different universes, one for each human being. Of course, if we were to assign a universe to each "consciousness" we would be exponentially higher than just 7 billion.

Remind me again, how much is infinity times infinity forever? :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:54 | 540616 tomdub_1024
tomdub_1024's picture

I am sure you have explored this, but fwiw, it might be reality:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation

[edit] and this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-minds_interpretation

Always a fun pondering...

:)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:04 | 540653 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Always is. An open and ever expanding mind is always an asset in my book.

Regarding your links, while pondering this for many years, I always wonder what exactly is an "event". There are supposed branches at "events" so what is the actual definition of an event?

Ideas? As soon as you head down that thought path, you can divide events into ever smaller events.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:14 | 540691 tomdub_1024
tomdub_1024's picture

Just a quick thought, I am at work so must be brief...:) This probably applies more to the many-minds interpretation...

Perhaps an event is an occurance of a set of possibility or probability, which leads to another subset of poss/probability dependant on the "choice" taken at the original "event". So maybe "event" is simply an action of choice which is dependant on a probability function.

ok, I need to noodle this some more...obviously...:)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 20:48 | 541889 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

An event is an observation, I think.  See Schroedinger or Heisenberg. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:30 | 540340 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This dope did a duplicate.

Dumb!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:05 | 540465 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

A is A.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:23 | 540324 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:00 | 540447 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, boy!  Another oeuvre from CD.  I'm eager to read it.

Thanks for hanging in there.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:19 | 540495 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank you.

Most of my writing happens on a daily basis in the comment section of ZH. I've been thinking I need to spend more time on articles and less time in the comments.

But to be honest, I love the back and forth of the comments, where I receive much wisdom from the collective conscious of the community, something that doesn't come through as strong in the articles. I thrive on the one on one and often I feel like I'm just talking to myself as I compose my articles.

PS....This time I'm using a little humor to lighten the material a bit. And no long dissertations......maybe.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:29 | 540545 RaymondKHessel
RaymondKHessel's picture

I think the problem is that a lot of people can't handle the cognitive dissonance associated with appreciating something they wouldn't own like gold. They obsess over making the "best" decision, but they define "best" as the best option regardless of compromise. That paints a black & white picture of the decision making process, which is just unrealistic.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:54 | 540205 giddy
giddy's picture

...please send to me... will not block... ZH is family...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:06 | 540250 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Sorry to hear that. My experience is that most people just don't want to know, so I'm not surprised.

I'll tell my family and friends exactly once. And let them come around when they are ready. Otherwise they'll just ignore the info and get pissed off for my not buying "into the Dream". When they do come around, they are much more productive with the info.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:56 | 540856 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

If the blinders were to come off, all of a sudden, more than half the world woudl go insane, instantly.

Cognitive Dissonance of mind shattering intensity.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:16 | 540277 Won_Over
Won_Over's picture

CD, well that's the price to pay for being non-conventional. Fast forward from a pyramid scheme collapse you get this...  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXz8LnDdzVI&feature=fvst   and then you can compare it with the greeks protesting recently... no comparison... When you really lose everything, people lose it (paraphrasing Gerald Celente).

 

These relatives of yours will thank you later for somehow having some extra canned food for them, and some 'protection'. If you haven't been there, your imagination has to run a bit 'wild' right now, but very plausible soon.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:30 | 540345 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

i have been explaining things to a lot of people .....i havent really moved forward to those archons and alien parts ...but still people refuse to believe me....they would just say....theres gonna be more growth and development......FUCK them.....seems the number of insane people on this planet are far more than previously assumed

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:03 | 540459 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

One problem with informing others, Injun.

Here it is:

The Shelter (The Twilight Zone) 

 

They'll come a' knockin' on your door!
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:42 | 540582 minus dog
minus dog's picture

Fastest way for all conversation in an office environment to screech to a halt -

People frequently tell me that "when the apocalypse happens, I'm coming to your house".

I tell them, deadpan, "no you're not".

Usually that ends it.  If not, I clarify, "I will shoot you in the face."

Might sound harsh to some of you, but these people are the poster children for living in the now, screw tomorrow. No food in the home, eat out 3 meals a day, no savings, in some cases they don't even own a pair of boots or a winter hat.

The fucked up part is that things are obvious enough now that quite a few of them realize trouble may be coming... and they just figure on being locusts when the time comes.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 15:23 | 541041 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I carry every day, even when going to Kroger for bread and milk.

It'll happen when you least expect it. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 18:22 | 541427 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Minus, You must work in a pretty relaxed office.

At most workplaces, the squealers run in shock to HR and have an emo melt down that gets them 12 months of 80% paid disability: "minus said he was going to shoot me in the face!!!" Followed by screaming, vomiting, convulsions etc.

Or they just come back the next day and shoot you and 7 other folks that are in the wrong place.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:40 | 540373 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

All you can do is try CD.

Expect the sales of anti-depressants to skyrocket in 2011.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:47 | 540411 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Expect the theft of anti-depressants to skyrocket in 2011.

Fixed it for you.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:56 | 540436 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

+ !!!!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:31 | 540936 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

already in the value-added water supply, just keep hydrated.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:07 | 540884 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

I have simply stated to my relatives the obvious analogy that one cannot truly recover from a problem caused by excessive debt and leverage through the use of even more debt and leverage any more than an alcoholic can be cured through the ingestion of additional alcohol. Then, since I strongly believe in a deflationary scenario, I tell them to get out of debt and save.  I stated just before flying home after a Christmas 2005 visit that the housing market was in a massive bubble and that it would end horribly.  They were much more optimistic, but learned that their often pessimistic relative was correct.  I have been right on a number of issues the press has completely misrepresented and believe my relatives are now actually listening to me and have evidence that they are following my advice.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:43 | 540394 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

must be some kind of ZHers' syndrome. same here 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:05 | 540012 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

  Dennis Kneale might as well sell his dow 10000 hat on ebay.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:06 | 540014 Millennial
Millennial's picture

I'm hung over and so is the economy. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:07 | 540016 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

No, no .... nothing to see here, keep moving along.

 

Vhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:09 | 540020 Millennial
Millennial's picture

BTW I'm new. And yes I am a Generation Y. I got my MBA at 22. Now after two years of job hunting I said f it I'm going into the Army. yay.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:14 | 540031 docj
docj's picture

Good luck and Godspeed, Millennial.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:17 | 540045 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Thank you. But I got two months before I leave. Who knew that a finance degree would become worthless?

In the mean time I'm gonna dick around here. 

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:19 | 540050 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Excuse me but watch where you place that dick, OK? 

Thanks. :>)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:20 | 540061 docj
docj's picture

Ex-Army myself (21B - Combat Engineer Officer).  Be well.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:25 | 540084 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Holy crap! I enlisted as 21B not because I didn't want to go Officer, I do, I badly do. But the waiting list of Officer Candidates has exploded since the depression began. The wait list is north of 12 months. I just don't have the money or time to sustain myself that long. My parents want me out and I want out as well.  

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:36 | 540137 PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Millennial, I've got 8 1/2 years in the Army.  Try WOC and learn how to fly, I did.  Or, as my first job, try EOD.  The rest of the Army pretty much leaves both EOD and pilots alone.  Good luck....keep the powder dry.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:11 | 540267 bronzie
bronzie's picture

I did two years Army enlisted - from what I could see, WOC (warrant officer) was the best category of service - in my neck of the woods the warrant officers were helicopter pilots and upper-level management types in the vehicle maintenance facilities - they weren't responsible for pushing troops (making sure the enlisted men clean the barracks and do their physical training, etc) and the officer ranks left them alone because the officers were (just) smart enough to know that it was the warrant officers that actually got the job done - if I were going in the military I would be looking for a path towards being a warrant officer

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:17 | 540275 docj
docj's picture

Lots of wisdom in this - the WOCs are really the ultimate in "below the radar" folks in the service.  http://www.usarec.army.mil/hq/warrant/index.htm

WO MOS: http://www.usarec.army.mil/hq/warrant/WOgeninfo_mos.html

Nobody really understands what they do, so everyone pretty much leaves them alone.  Pay isn't as good as officer pay but it's substantially higher than enlisted and you still get a fair number of officer perks.  And I do belive there are (or at least used to be) some WOC slots open to finance types if you're interested.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:29 | 540543 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Sgt. Skull's Basic Combat Shooting Course

http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=89544&highlight=CHITTUM

It's you or them.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 15:47 | 541108 Hulk
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:28 | 540098 mnevins2
mnevins2's picture

Ditto.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:16 | 540038 old_turk
old_turk's picture

Yikes!!

 

Best wishes though I'd think Navy or Coast Guard or even Air Force before the Army.  Unless your dad or grandpa was in the Army, of course.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:20 | 540062 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Navy, Airforce, Coast Guard and Marines are more or less closing up shop due to budget cuts. Army was a happy medium between physical intensity, opportunity to be bad ass, safety, and laziness. Plus Army is still expanding. 

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:27 | 540093 old_turk
old_turk's picture

I have a long time friend who is a light bird colonel in the JAG corps ... they are still hiring.  Attorneys, Accountants, MBAs (special skill sets though). 

How's your forenic financial skills?

Seems to be lots of work, she is in-country right now making like hell for certain contractors.

A former neighbor of mine (also Air Force) is in the paymaster admin services ... got his MBA and is now a Major (about 6 years from MBA).

All the above, you have to deal with security screenings out the wazoo ... but hey, it's territorial thing.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:32 | 540121 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Forensic financial skills? lol. You think they taught me that? lol. I have no idea, I was horrid in accting. I love finance, actually more economics. I love the theories in finance and economics more than the actual math. I can price bonds, find NPV, amortize loans, I do okay with managerial and financial accounting. I have no idea how well that would suite me given I have no prior experience in financial fields other than personal investing when I was a waiter.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:33 | 540123 anony
anony's picture

++++  Very good career advice.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:17 | 540041 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Good luck to you.  Afraid you have now become Generation "Why?" 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:23 | 540074 Millennial
Millennial's picture

more like "why the fuck did our parents do this to us?" and "why are they so blind to see that we are screwed?" I feel awful about the kids just entering high school and college. I wonder what they have to look forward to. Medical?

I have no assets really. I liquidated them in my vain attempt to find a financial job somewhere in the U.S. So I figure military pays, it's honest work, and I can save money and begin investing (shorting the dollar).

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:42 | 540164 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Don't blame our parents, they didn't even know they were doing this to us.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:47 | 540183 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

iI wont accept stupidity as an excuse !

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:24 | 540328 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

Nor will I.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:50 | 540422 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Ignorance of the law is no defense, even though most claim "I didn't know!"

A fart in their general direction.

 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:07 | 540472 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Because the only way for it to all go according to plan is for nobody to ever find out the plan. Supposedly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k90Xc_KhdBA&feature=related

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:49 | 540601 minus dog
minus dog's picture

See, Millenial, you got it bass ackwards.  I did the military and then got the degrees.  I'm in the same boat, technically speaking, but I'm glad I reversed the order.  I don't think I could stand putting up with the BS while watching everything shake apart.  If I could do it over again, I would have dispensed with the education.  Most of it was worthless.

The kids coming out of school now have the whole "get in debt up to your eyeballs and get a degree" thing burned deep into them from the school system, but I don't think most of them have any illusions about getting shafted on the entitlement stuff.  I was under the impression that most of us knew, back then.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:37 | 540949 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Just don't shoot us when they deploy you here to quell the riots, please.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:31 | 540114 Sniper
Sniper's picture

As a fellow millenial - good luck. Things are a lot different from the way things were, at least on the surface, when we were growing up.

Generation Why? is perfect. Why do we get dealt such a shitty hand? Why are we forced to clean up the mess? Why are things bound to get worse before they get better?

As useless as it is to complain, we are in a place that previous generations may have not had to deal with: highly educated yet low employment prospects, lower real earnings power, and forced to clean up after the party. It sucks, but I am confident we will be better people for not having lived in such a fantasy land and bring back a certain level of reality to a world that seemed to teeter-toter while smiling and winking.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:22 | 540317 bronzie
bronzie's picture

"highly educated yet low employment prospects"

George Ure at urbansurvival.com has been talking recently about higher education in the US being a form of indentured servitude - young kid goes to college and comes out with six-figures of debt - school loans can NOT be discharged through bankruptcy so the youngster has no choice about repaying the debt

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:47 | 540409 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Nice how they engineered that situation isn't it?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:53 | 540619 minus dog
minus dog's picture

Yeah, that was a long time in the making, too.

It's not as simple as that though.  They're selective forgiving those debts already in a number of ways, either to approved groups (if you guess "civil servants", you win a cookie, though there are others) or to those who behave in 'approved' ways.

It's also a politician's dream vehicle for engineering large scale handouts to young voters.

If you haven't started into the repayment maze recently, you probably don't know just how fucked up it is.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:03 | 540650 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

But people who chose to borrow to go back to school to increase skills within the last 10 to 15 years and deferred payment ARE FUCKED OVER

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:28 | 540342 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

I want you to understand something.  I'm 53 and am one of the few who've been questioning the bubbles for the past 25 years at least.  Wife and I have two young adult children who are totally aware of what's going on in politics and finance.  No illusions or delusions.  Here's the part I want you to understand: our society could not continue on the path it was on.  That path was completely hedonistic and self-destructive.  The pursuit of material wealth, glam, status, etc outstripped everything else, including family, parenting...everything.  Balance had been destroyed by the Fed's easy money since 1981.  We watched with amazement and horror, now coming to fruition. 

Perhaps I am too hopeful, but I believe you are being presented with an opportunity to rebuild a society on a foundation of reason and sanity, with the advantage of a recent history that everyone remembers that you can point to and say "we tried that, it didn't work."  I promise to help, no, to try to lead the effort to do this.  I'm trying now.  Sad part is, it's gonna get worse before it gets better.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:41 | 540379 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Well I graduated with no debt, Dad and Mom financed the record pace education. However, I feel awful for my friends and those who I care about who have become indebted to go to school. My ex for example blew through 20k, my cousin 25k, and it's amazing to me that neither has a degree yet, and as I began to see the path to high inflation approach I am saddened because they may not be able to graduate on time before this tornado hits. I love education and I think everyone needs some in order to achieve a better human potential based on reason and logic and sanity, but it is difficult to watch the sins of our parents and grandparents ruin us all in the name of "love".

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:37 | 540777 tomdub_1024
tomdub_1024's picture

You have a lot of X-ers to help "cleanup after the party", those of us that figured out the party was bogus, and really didnt like the people there to begin with...:)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:28 | 540099 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Go Navy first, AF second. Learn to fly if only behind a seat in Nevada. I was a grunt, one of my dumass mistakes.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:31 | 540111 anony
anony's picture

You need not do that. Get a government job.  That's a huge growth industry, has been for decades.  You'll make lucrative contacts, find some lobbyists who will make your life a breeze and the women in DC and environs are hot for government guys on the way up, and they will be sure that your leisure hours are spent with sufficient entertainment to make an Arabian king drool.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:38 | 540143 Millennial
Millennial's picture

No good, I already tried. Everyone with skills and reputation already are getting those nice jobs. I've been in 4-5 interviews in 2 years roughly. 2 of them were defense related. BAe Systems and TACOM (Tank Automotive Command - US Army) which is based here in Detroit, BAE was Maryland, they wanted me to intern for free 8 hrs a day and move away from home and so the math didn't work. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 17:23 | 540431 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Sounds like a great plan. Kind of like backing an 8,800 gallon gasoline tanker up to a burning building and opening up all the outlets.

All the super bennied Govt' employees party while the rest of us eat shit. Don't be shocked on torch & pitchfork day.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:32 | 540120 espirit
espirit's picture

Millennial-

My son was also faced with no job after graduation, and enlisted in the AF.  He initially wanted Army, but capitulated at my insistance.  He's now in Japan as a warfighter mechanic - and loves it!

Hope you get MI or better. Best Wishes.

ess

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:06 | 540252 aheady
aheady's picture

Same here espirit... My son decided not to go the college route and became a certified welder in high school (great choice we thought at the time). He was offered a sweet paid apprenticeship package with Liebherr at the Newport News Shipbuilding upon graduation, only to have it rescinded when the economy tanked. Couldn't find a job anywhere else in the space of a year here in Virginia and in February moved to Iowa for work. I miss him horribly but am glad he was willing to go the extra (many) miles... Millennial, REMEMBER TO CALL YOUR MOTHER : )

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:59 | 540446 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

My nephew graduated 2 years ago and although he has made some good money on medium to long term (3 to 4 month) temp positions, he makes most of his steady money caddying.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:01 | 540454 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Tell him to look into tool & dye repair shops. When an important mfg. piece breaks, they need them fixed ASAP. Usually entails quite a bit of welding followed by machining.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:25 | 540729 aheady
aheady's picture

Will do, Mr. Chunk. Thank you. He did find some work at the Tyson plant in Waterloo, IA while waiting for a maintenance position to open up (much more lucrative)... But who knows if one will at this point?

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 15:22 | 541035 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Most of the shops that do this work are located pretty close to where there is a large volume of heavy mfg. going on, central shipping hubs etc.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:47 | 540187 augmister
augmister's picture

MBA's and Lawyers are passe.... Farming is IN!  Everybody is going to be very hungry and all things Ag will collect a lot of the Gold and Silver the ZH's are hording....

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:31 | 540759 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Farmers are a dying breed...  the tricks of the trade are not getting passed down...  I concur. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:57 | 540217 giddy
giddy's picture

...sweetie... military is US defacto currency... the ONLY thing back-stopping value... stay well... let ZH know how you're doing...  

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:16 | 540297 Millennial
Millennial's picture

Thank you all for the advice and well wishes. 

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:13 | 540487 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

As you trudge the happy road to destiny here at ZH I'd like to hear your take on the economic front since you have the recent education in that area.  Plainly, tell us how the actual events on the ground are differing from what you were taught -- and how you reconcile it.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 13:28 | 540739 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I have only one thing.

You might be reassigned to the States for duty before the end. If you are remember that some of us might be in that mob you face on some fire-lit street in an unnamed town in the former United States of America.

Not that it will matter. You'll have your orders. We know how it is. But remember us anyway.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:10 | 540892 aheady
aheady's picture

: (

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 14:42 | 540958 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

in amongst the happy hoo-ha. . .

reality.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 15:25 | 541048 thrashaholic
thrashaholic's picture

Now after two years of job hunting I said f it I'm going into the Army. yay.

 

As a fellow Millennial, I say fuck you. You're a goddamned idiot. ( An MBA, seriously? ) I have no respect or sympathy for you. You are part of the problem; I'd rather go homeless and hungry (and have) than join the military and be a cog in that machine. It doesn't matter if you aren't the one pulling the trigger - you're still 100% responsible.

Generation "Why?" you say? Want to know why? In large part, because of people like you. You made an absolutely idiotic education decision - chasing money, no doubt - and can't find a job because your skills - surprise! - are basically worthless to 99% of the country, and now you expect ME to pay your salary for doing nothing more than killing brown people? Fuck off. Go hungry and homeless, maybe you'll learn some of those valuable skills that you apparently missed out on in college.

--My one post of the day. (So don't bother responding.)

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:11 | 540025 koaj
koaj's picture

looking forward to a 2.5% apr on a 30 year refi before year end

 

thanks barry and ben!

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:19 | 540054 old_turk
old_turk's picture

I'm locking in on 375 bps today.

There's a good chance (30%) that this all goes parallax before the end of the year.

It's all fun and games 'til the short end doesn't roll over ... if you know what I mean and I think you do.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 16:15 | 541183 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Better have 25% to 30% LTV, full doc displaying no more than 40% DTI and a 720 or you will get nothing and like it.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:15 | 540034 The Answer Is 42
The Answer Is 42's picture

spx only down 16?You people are slacking...

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:16 | 540039 Superdrol
Superdrol's picture

CNBC was doing a little pump session with James Altucher aka Harry Potter.  Looks like it didn't work, lol.

Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:26 | 540086 Double down
Double down's picture

He does look like Harry Potter!!

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