As Expected, Here Comes The Bund Crash As Almunia's Lies Are Exposed
We have been vocal opponents of the long Bund trade for well over a month. Today, on news of the Greek bailout, the Bund yield is surging as the 10 year Bund plunges to session lows. Sorry Pimco, you lose this one.
And here are some more headlines to rub salt in the wounds of all those idiots who bought Almunia's blatant lies about no Greece "Plan B."
11:56 02/09 PRESS: TALK OF BOTH BI-LATERAL,INTERNATIONAL HELP FOR GREECE
11:55 02/09 PRESS: GERMAN GOVT PREPARING SUPPORT PACKAGE FOR GREECE
And here is how you know European Commissioners are full of shit: they open their mouth.
(4 votes)
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on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:05
#223415
How many times have we seen this game before? Russia, Argentina, the game never changes. Either Greece will default soon or Europe will default a bit later, there is nothing they can do to stop it.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:10
#223423
+10 - PIIG led to slaughter as an oportunistic anglo firewall tactic
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:08
#223420
If no one else has yet claimed fourth spot, Ms. Merkel, I'm in line behind Greece, Spain and Portugal for a little streudel, since it's on you.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:43
#223520
First - it is Mr. Merckel
Second - it is Streudel
:)
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 13:25
#223612
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I distinctly remember George W Bush hugged women and held hands with men (King Abdullah). Therefore, I conclude Angela must be a woman. As for the Caps on Nouns, well, in English write I did.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:14
#223428
I think Almunia or some shill has to lie.
The Powerz have to pretend not to bailout so everyone can see what may happen. Then they boost CDS spreads up to 400 bp for Greece!? They want everyone to see why it is necessary to do more bailouts/stimulus/inflation.
Otherwise, there is no political will to do so. The Germans are sick of losing $400B/year by participating in the European Union. They need a little prodding in the "right" direction.
So, the pols now have the fear of God in them, and now are willing to inflate.
And viola!--A big fat Greek bailout. Oops! I can't say bailout--I'll use some govt doublespeak and call it "support in principle" or something like that.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:23
#223445
+100
They tested the waters and the reaction is scaring the hell out of them. They even tried the futures trick this morning as usual. Regardless the Euro should fall apart from here on out long term. Further proof of what a dangerous disaster this system has become. This makes me more bearish than ever. Toxic Stew is about all that remains in the pantry
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:37
#223506
+101
Moral hazard rears its ugly head again. How far behind are the rest of the PIIG(S)?
Then comes California. We are not going to say no to them.
That sigh of relief you just heard is from California. Whew!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:59
#223559
Whatever plans are implemented for public view have already been devised, depending on the known and unforeseen variables. Looking at FEMAs plans would be interesting. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we walked in randomly to see them just baking cookies with Janet Napolitano eating half of them with a gallon of milk on the table. No cup. Wiping her mouth on her sleeve. Talking to Rahm with her mouth full.
http://www.yournews.com/copyroom/newsimages/janet-napolitano.jpg
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:12
#223429
The EU is a failed experiment, do you really think the German populace is going to support bailing out the Greeks?
Think again.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:26
#223472
I would certainly like to believe that.
What I do see right now is EU officials all saying the 'right things' to placate the markets from going into panic mode.
For over 2 weeks now, the Greeks have played a dangerous game of chicken, betting the farm that a bailout would be forthcoming. I think the Germans are going to demand pretty strict austerity measures as part of any bailout deal. The devil will be in the details...
Otherwise, why in the world would they support the Euro when they could do better on their own?
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:27
#223474
agreed. if i was a german (maybe I am, maybe Im not) i would be LIVID upon hearing this.
either riots happen in Greece. Or in Germany. Or both!
And then what about Spain and Portugal??
Maybe the French riot just because...
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:34
#223490
I bet you extra tzatziki sauce the Germans will support Greece and others in Europe. It's in their best interest but you're all malakes who do not see this.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:56
#223573
And you are a pitiable character who insults everyone because that's all you got.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 13:28
#223623
What's the matter? You can dish but you can't take it when I'm right? I am constantly bombarded on ZH, so don't give me that bs that I am the one insulting people. Bottom line: this market is rigged and you should be buying the dips for now.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 14:13
#223705
Leo, I would consider you a paid internet troll, but your agenda is more personal. I refuse to participate in the markets because a) I consider it too rigged for my taste and salvation b) the music always stops, so I am forcibly long on tangibles.
I do have to give you credit for being consistent.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 16:19
#224018
"I do have to give you credit for being consistent."
Add
-ly wrong!
;)
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 17:39
#224144
How???? if we bail them out, public gets pissed and our fiscal situation gets real ugly... We wont bail them out.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:42
#223516
The populace can't do anything. Did you vote for the Fred/Fan bailout? AIG? GM?
Elites spend your money bailing out PIIGS and you pay taxes. That's the deal.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:13
#223431
They will make an exception (not a lie) this time, but will draw the line at a Greek bailout...
Mark my words, there will be no bailout for Spain!!!
(until there is...)
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:13
#223435
I guarantee you that the Fed saw how the markets were not digesting this information well and WE are paying for a good portion of this bailout behind closed doors. Not a doubt in my mind.
The U.S. is bailout out Greece
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:14
#223437
the 3yr auction should take care of it
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:17
#223446
All your gyros are belong to us.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:38
#223495
Willy Brandt's Ghost: Get the Deutschemark printing press out of storage boys and we will show this world that the Time 1970 Man of The Year can print currency backed by a strong industrial nation.
Heil Geld Hündinnen
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:49
#223540
That's just... wrong. lol
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:18
#223448
Strafor has some interesting ideas about it.
http://www.stratfor.com:80/weekly/20100208_germanys_choice?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100208&utm_content=readmore&elq=b00b6c763fc44d1f9fa3274d5c5c2360
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:25
#223465
TYLER and Staff / Very good reporting and observation on this issue. Liquidation drives markets. Also, markets always need to get the "wrong side" completely saturated before reversing trend. Good work.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:30
#223478
ZH shorties are in panic mode. Damn, should have listened to Leo and bought the dip! LOL!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:43
#223519
Leotard, don't you think it is a bit early to celebrate victory? Let's see the market storm through some solid resistance first and S&P 1070 does not count. 1100 is more like it.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:30
#223483
who in their proper mind would think that EU will let Greece fail thus signing up for EU breakup? they gonna use same tools we are using to avoid our own failure.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:32
#223487
This is a joke...even if ECB helps Greece it does nothing until they drastically adjust their budget (the same as most western countries). Transfering the risk from Greece to Germany or other more prudent countries only weakens the country that accepted the additional risk and weaken to whole. We see by the political actions taken that the educational system has failed the west. Anybody and I mean anybody could come up with and execute these insane policies.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:42
#223515
You mean you can't spend more than you make forever? You can't consume more than you produce?
What a surprise. Eventually the EU will fall apart, it is not a matter of it, but when.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:54
#223563
Are we consuming more than we produce?
So this steak comes from the matrix?
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:33
#223491
Anyone who didn't think there would be a bailout must have been asleep the last two years.
Everyone will be bailed. Everyone, from the PIIGS to California, to you name it. Everyone is TBTF now. Until everyone fails simultaneously, of course. But that is how it will go.
Greeks will mumble about austerity measures, then go right back to slamming ouzo and not reporting their income. Nothing will change. Nothing. Why change when you can be a complete fuck-up and be bailed by your finger-wagging neighbors? Fuck Germany is the rallying cry in Athens.
No one is taking any pain, no one is tackling reform, there is no austerity. Take it to the bank and cash it, before the bank implodes, of course.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:36
#223502
Only pain I see today is from shorties who forgot to stock up on lube waiting for the world to end. OUCH!!!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:48
#223537
You are more annoying than an army of Dennis Kneales.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:43
#223518
+1001
That's it, Internet Tough Guy. Greece will do essentially nothing now that Uncle Germany is going to bail them out. Why should they? Spring is coming soon! Let the Ouzo flow!
And everyone else will get their bailouts too, from the PIIS to California to, ahh, until the money runs out?
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:46
#223527
We'll see how well that works out when you don't have the world's reserve currency.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:34
#223492
The market was bought during the latest fiasco. It will be distributed,then it will be too expensive again,buyers will be out again,then will go through Spain. And give it a couple more months lull,then will back for Portugal,Ireland Eastern block then back to the big heads,Germany,US,UK and JP. Expect a year full of excitement. But I think it will be much better trading forex than stocks(if one to trade at all)...
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:49
#223539
Agreed, the volatility we are going to see going forward will make your head spin. This will be an opportunity to make (or lose) generational wealth.
We have gone from multiple points of failure in each country to a single point of failure. If you think the domino effect of one investment bank failing was impressive, wait until you see what happens when a currency system goes under.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:34
#223494
All good points, very insightful indeed.
The question is ... will Bernanke bail out Europe?
And the answer my friends is, "You betcha!"
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:36
#223501
Thing is the Germans hate the Euro and never wanted to be a part of it. Than the Berlin Wall fell, and Kohl wanted to re-unite the 2 Germany's. Fine said Mitterand, but only if you work towards and adopt a single European currency. The rest, as they say, is history.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:40
#223507
Hell, I don't want to see Texas having to bail out that sh*t state of California. Why would Germany want to bail out Crisco?
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:45
#223525
Alas, fair Texas (God's Country), you will get to bailout California, New York, Illinois and whomever.
A pity that the savers have to pay for the decadence of the spenders.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 14:14
#223684
San Francrisco: "Houston, we have a problem."
Although with the Feds in control of the printing pre$$ any bailouts will be entirely political.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:45
#223522
The day is not over yet Leo Klumphead !!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:49
#223543
I hate Leo too, but Klumphead? Geez.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:46
#223528
To Leo
There is no cure for the horrible disease that afflicts you, and I'm not talking about the MS. Perhaps one day you will grow up.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:48
#223536
So what happened now(Eur/Jpy down one yen in one minute)?. Rumors denied?.This is a joke. It seems that all goverments have become a toy in the hands of GS. I am enjoing my time though. This is better than watching Blockbusters dull movies of the week.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:48
#223538
Leo may have won today, but the young people of the world lost (big time!).
Forcing Greece to face the reality of its situation might have (not too likely but it might have) forced politicians to seriously re-examine the decision to subscribe to the suicide pacts that virtually all nations have chosen as their fiscal policy.
Germany does not have the resources to pay for the medical care, social nicities and retirement plans of every European, but, it does have the money to "extend and pretend" for a year, or two so we can continue to live in "everything is fine" land a little longer.
However, when the inevitable crash does come, the world with have even less "seed corn" left because the Germans are using theirs to feed the Greeks this year.
Pity the little children who will suffer in a world they didn't create. They will look back in wonder when the hear the stories of the life we had, and curse our names!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:50
#223546
If Greece gets bailed out then the precedent is set!
Portugal, Spain, Italy....... they must all then at some point receive money to stay afloat. They think they are doing a good thing by bailing out a nation of olive producers and fishermen?????
Watch the news in a couple days when Germany puts the niet on the deal!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:50
#223548
I guess the rescue pack will be enough for unions shuting down the country tomorrow or the farmers blocking the streets...
Guys, this is the start of something. Not the end. Let me intruduce a term.
"Controlling lose of control"
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:54
#223562
Isn't this a vindacation to Bob Prechter's doubters,that market moves news and not the other way around?. The rebound occured at 11:30,and exactly at the SPY pivot,as the rebound in the Eur/Jpy took place at the open price. And then came the Reuters(11:56)according to your time. So I would say no. Floor traders had some inventory that they wanted to unload,and created that rumor that moved the market up(just a logical conclusion from the consequence of events)...
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:54
#223564
Steep drop from +22 to +13 for the S&P !! Leo are you selling your solars or something ?
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:54
#223566
I knew this guy was an evil liar....for all who disagreed with me on that post, eat crow and die. Gold snitches!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:55
#223570
Time for a new acronym: PIIGGS.
tax_man_cometh
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 12:56
#223575
Swine Flu will kill the Euro Zone.....update on the Baltics and Eastern Europe due from Project Mayhem!
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 13:57
#223666
Well looking at the weekly Bund chart nothing really happened to get excited or bearish about. I agree at some point it will be a good trade to short them but I rather see prices to reach 126 before 120. Do not underestimate that stocks will have to go lower over the next 2-4 months and in a sharper speed than now which will trigger save heaven buying.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 14:02
#223678
OK so Greece is Germany's AIG.
At what point do they send in a German Finance team to run the country.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 19:25
#224260
What's the difference between the European Commissioner with responsibility for Economic and Monetary Affairs and a rodeo clown?
The rodeo clown's antics are intended to distract the *bulls*.
on Tue, 02/09/2010 - 20:22
#224321
Leo exeis plaka..; ))))