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Experts: BP Lowballing Size of Leaking Oil Reservoir
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On May 1st, I warned
that the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf was much higher than
either the government or BP were admitting:
As a
story in the Christian Science Monitor shows,
the Gulf oil spill is much worse than we've been told:
It's
now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast
Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels,
or 210,000 gallons, a day.Independent scientists estimate that
the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to
25,000 barrels a day. If
chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be
released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.As
estimates of the spill increase, questions about the government's
honesty in assessing the spill are emerging.
***
"The
following is not public," reads National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28, according
to the Press-Register [see this]. "Two additional release points were found
today. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become
unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher
than previously thought."
An order of magnitude is a factor of 10.
The
Wall Street Journal reported Friday that John Amos, an oil industry
consultant, said that NOAA revised its original estimate of 1,000
barrels after he published calculations based on satellite data that
showed a larger flow.
The 5,000 barrels a day is the "extremely
low end" of estimates, Mr. Amos told the Journal.CNN
quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the
commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If
we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.Indeed,
an environmental document filed by BP estimates
the maximum as 162,000 barrels a
day:
In an exploration plan and environmental
impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP
said it had the capability to handle a “worst-case scenario” at the
Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000
barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout — 6.8
million gallons each day.
Now,
I am warning that the amount of oil still in the reservoir might be much bigger than BP is admitting.
Specifically,
BP claims that there are 50 million barrels worth of oil in the reservoir
underneath the leaking spill site.
But the Guardian noted
Friday:
But the 50m figure cited by
Hayward took some industry insiders by surprise. There have been
reports the reservoir held up to 500m barrels – the figure quoted by
Hayward's questioner, Joe Barton, a Republican from Texas.
"I
would assume that 500m
barrels would be a more likely estimate," said Tadeusz Patzek, the
chairman of the department of petroleum and geosystems engineering at
the University of Texas at Austin. "I don't think you would be going
after a 50mbarrel reservoir so quickly. This is just simply not enough
oil to go after."
Indeed, Wolf Blitzer said:
One
-- one expert said to me -- and I don't know if this is overblown or
not -- that they're still really concerned about the structural base of
this whole operation, if the rocks get moved, this thing could really
explode and they're sitting, what, on -- on a billion potential barrels of oil at
the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
Bloomberg notes:
The
ruptured well may hold as much as 1 billion barrels, the Times reported,
citing Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis in
Massachusetts.
Oil industry expert Matthew Simmons
also puts the number above one billion barrels (see this
Bloomberg interview, for example, where he says that - unless stopped -
120,000 barrels a day will leak for 25-30 years; that adds up to 1,095,000,000
to 1,314,000,000
barrels).
And Rob Kall claims
that a source inside BP tells him:
Size of reservoir -
estimated by BP and its partner, Andarko to be between 2.5B and 10B bbl.
(that's 100,000,000,000 gallons and 400,000,000,000 gallons).
Yes
- all of those numbers are BILLIONS.
Given that BP's
nearby Tiber
and Kaskida wells each contain at least 3 billion barrels of
oil (see this,
this,
this
and this),
estimates of more than a billion barrels for the leaking Macondo reservoir are not unreasonable.
Why the Size of the Reservoir Matters
The size of
the reservoir is important for several reasons. Specifically, the more
oil in the Macondo reservoir, the longer the oil leak will flow if the
efforts to cap it fail.
Moreover, higher volumes of oil and gas might change the pressure of materials gushing out of the leaking well. As CBS notes:
The oil emanating from the seafloor contains about 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent
found in typical oil deposits, said John Kessler, a Texas A&M
University oceanographer who is studying the impact of methane from the
spill.
I will leave it to the scientists to
calculate what a larger volume of oil (with 40% methane) would mean for
pressure. Higher pressure may make it harder to cap the leak, and may
wear out the casing quicker by speeding up the rate at which sand and
other small particles in the oil abrade the metal. Lower pressure would
ease both problems.
Finally, the more oil and gas in the
reservoir, the higher a priority the government may consider it to
produce the well at all costs. See this and this.
»
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More of the scary BullShip exposed.
Aramco refutes 'secret' spill talkhttp://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article218440.ece
Oil giant Saudi Aramco today denied allegations reported in several news and media internet blogs about a ‘secret’ oil spill in the Arabian Gulf during 1993.
<snip>
Furthermore, the company said that while Pozzi was a former employee of the company he made no significant contribution to the spill preparedness or response teams during his employment or at any other time.
“The claims made about his alleged efforts at a 1993 oil spill response operation are without factual basis,” said Saudi Aramco.
What makes you think there's actually an oil spill? Shortly after the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded NationalGeographic.com reported that "petroleum had stopped flowing from the seafloor drilling site." http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/04/100423-nation-oil-rig-deepwater-horizon-climate-bill/
Think of the movie, The Sting, which featured a phony horse-betting track. Now, compare that to the oil spill site. There's a no-fly zone around the rig, so no one can really see what's going on there. Perhaps a bit of oil was spilled and allowed to wash ashore in Louisiana and Alabama to make it look real.
Meanwhile, while everyone's terrified about the alleged oil spill, an entire armada of U.S. battleships just sailed through the Suez Canal on their way to Iran. It's a classic example of misdirection. Make everyone look one way while you do something in another direction.
I'll probably be called nuts for posting this, but I ask that you at least consider this scenario to be a possibility. After all, what have you really seen? Just a looped video of oil leaking. It could have been shot anywhere in the world at any time in the past ten years. The video skips every few minutes. It's on a perpetual loop.
A New WRINKLE, we have not discussed...............
Read CIGA Pedro's piece............
http://jsmineset.com/
Red Sea/Egypt leak isn't BP but with 8 rigs there, Transocean could be operator.
Your Search Criteria: Manager: BPRegion: MidEast - Red Sea
No offshore rigs were found that match your search criteria.
Deepwater Horizon exploratory rig might have been erected directly over a huge underground reservoir of methane.
Disturbing evidence is mounting that something frightening is happening deep under the waters of the Gulf of Mexico—something far worse than the BP oil gusher.
Warnings were raised as long as a year before the Deepwater Horizon disaster that the area of seabed chosen by the BP geologists might be unstable, or worse, inherently dangerous.
What makes the location that Transocean chose potentially far riskier than other potential oil deposits located at other regions of the Gulf? It can be summed up with two words: methane gas.
The same methane that makes coal mining operations hazardous and leads to horrendous mining accidents deep under the earth also can present a high level of danger to certain oil exploration ventures.
Location of Deepwater Horizon oil rig was criticized
More than 12 months ago some geologists rang the warning bell that the Deepwater Horizon exploratory rig might have been erected directly over a huge underground reservoir of methane.
Documents from several years ago indicate that the subterranean geologic formation may contain the presence of a huge methane deposit.
None other than the engineer who helped lead the team to snuff the Gulf oil fires set by Saddam Hussein to slow the advance of American troops has stated that a huge underground lake of methane gas—compressed by a pressure of 100,000 pounds per square inch (psi)—could be released by BP's drilling effort to obtain the oil deposit.
Current engineering technology cannot contain gas that is pressurized to 100,000 psi.
By some geologists' estimates the methane could be a massive 15 to 20 mile toxic and explosive bubble trapped for eons under the Gulf sea floor. In their opinion, the explosive destruction of the Deepwater Horizon wellhead was an accident just waiting to happen.
Yet the disaster that followed the loss of the rig pales by comparison to the apocalyptic disaster that may come.
A cascading catastrophe
According to worried geologists, the first signs that the methane may burst its way through the bottom of the ocean would be fissures or cracks appearing on the ocean floor near the damaged well head.
Evidence of fissures opening up on the seabed have been captured by the robotic submersibles working to repair and contain the ruptured well. Smaller, independent plumes have also appeared outside the nearby radius of the bore hole itself.
According to some geological experts, BP's operations set into motion a series of events that may be irreversible. Step-by-step the drilling team committed one error after another.
Congressmen Henry Waxman, D-CA, and Bart Stupak, D-MI, in a letter sent to BP CEO Tony Hayward, identified 5 missteps made by BP during the period culminating with the explosion.
Waxman, chair of the Congressional energy panel and Stupak, the head of the subcommittee on oversight and investigations, said, "The common feature of these five decisions is that they posed a trade-off between cost and well safety."
The two Representatives also stated in the 14-page letter to Hayward that "Time after time, it appears that BP made decisions that increased the risk of a blowout to save the company time or expense."
Called by some insiders investigating the ongoing disaster a "perfect storm of catastrophe," the wellhead blew on the sea floor catapulting a stream of mud, oil and gas upwards at the speed of sound.
In describing the events—that transpired in a matter of seconds—they note that immediately following the rupture the borehole pipe's casing blew away exposing a straight line 8 miles deep for the pressurized gas to escape. The result was cavitation, an irregular pressure variance sometimes experience by deep diving vessels such as nuclear submarines. This cavitation created a supersonic bubble of explosive methane gas that resulted in a supersonic explosion killing 11 men and completely annihilating the drilling platform.
Death from the depths
With the emerging evidence of fissures, the quiet fear now is the methane bubble rupturing the seabed and exploding into the Gulf waters. If the bubble escapes, every ship, drilling rig and structure within the region of the bubble will instantaneously sink. All the workers, engineers, Coast Guard personnel and marine biologists measuring the oil plumes' advance will instantly perish.
As horrible as that is, what would follow is an event so potentially horrific that it equals in its fury the Indonesian tsunami that killed more than 600,000, or the destruction of Pompeii by Mt. Vesuvius.
The ultimate Gulf disaster, however, would make even those historical horrors pale by comparison. If the huge methane bubble breaches the seabed, it will erupt with an explosive fury similar to that experienced during the eruption of Mt. Saint Helens in the Pacific Northwest. A gas gusher will surge upwards through miles of ancient sedimentary rock—layer after layer—past the oil reservoir. It will explode upwards propelled by 50 tons psi, burst through the cracks and fissures of the compromised sea floor, and rupture miles of ocean bottom with one titanic explosion.
The burgeoning methane gas cloud will surface, killing everything it touches, and set off a supersonic tsunami with the wave traveling somewhere between 400 to 600 miles per hour.
While the entire Gulf coastline is vulnerable, the state most exposed to the fury of a supersonic wave towering 150 to 200 feet or more is Florida. The Sunshine State only averages about 100 feet above sea level with much of the coastline and lowlands and swamps near zero elevation. [Elevation map] A supersonic tsunami would literally sweep away everything from Miami to the panhandle in a matter of minutes. Loss of human life would be virtually instantaneous and measured in the millions. Of course the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and southern region of Georgia—a state with no Gulf coastline—would also experience tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of casualties.
Loss of property is virtually incalculable and the days of the US position as the world's superpower would be literally gone in a flash...of detonating methane.
Links
Evidence that methane gas catastrophe may be building
Video #1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v =xMEr4FctWAM&feature=player_embedded#!
Video #2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v =z4hfGY6i75w&feature=player_embedded#!
There is no evidence of fissures. There is no 100,000 psi reservoir. The borehole's pipe casing did not blow away. Methane is normal natural gas, that is exactly the target of a natural gas well.
Whoever wrote this for Mother Jones has been consulting with Rosie O'Donnell.
Whatever happened to the details on that scary Sigsby Salt?
RUNNNNN - RUNNNNN for the hills!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Buy some gold & bullets first though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Morons who couldn't keep a perfectly legal financial tracking program quiet blew up the towers in a secret operation........(oh wait that was the last example of total stupidity making the internet rounds)...................
How did they drill THROUGH the "BUBBLE" of methane gomer?
Utter nonsense. As are the reserve quotes listed in GW's article. Also FYI the size of the reserves has no bearing on the pressure. The pressure will be determined by the existing pore pressures at the reservoir interval and by the height of the oil & gas column in the reservoir. It's maximum level will be determined by the fracture gradient of the overlying seal.
Finally - it is not "shilling" for BP to point out facts in the face of stupidity. BP made some horrendously poor decisions which I believe approach criminal liability but the claims being made on this site (and by many "experts" such as Simmons) are utterly absurd from a physical parameter standpoint.
There are two germane and relevant articles on this specific subject I'll link and excerpt from for you. I'll put the 2nd article in a seperate post. Its the one having to do with a giant methane bubble under the well. This is about the consequences of the likely down hold failure in the pipe.
A grim technical view on the BP Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_60341.shtml
Editor's Note: This is the most credible report/analyis we have read to date about what is really happening with what could turn out to be the worst environmental disaster in all of human history. The editor of The Oil Drum website provides an introduction to the report.
- Les Blough, Editor
What follows is a comment from a The Oil Drum reader. To read what The Oil Drum staff members are saying about the Deepwater Horizon Spill, please visit the front page. (Were the US government and BP more forthcoming with information and details, the situation would not be giving rise to so much speculation about what is actually going on in the Gulf. This should be run more like Mission Control at NASA than an exclusive country club function--it is a public matter--transparency, now!)
- Oil Drum Editor
OK let's get real about the GOM oil flow. There doesn't really seem to be much info on TOD that furthers more complete understanding of what's really happening in the GOM.
As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don't feel bad, there is much that doesn't make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there...
First of all...set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc....forget that, it won't be happening..it's done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.
So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:
The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".
That is something which is a "Worst nightmare" conclusion to reach. While many have been saying this for some time as with any complex disaster of this proportion many have "said" a lot of things with no real sound reasons or evidence for jumping to such conclusions, well this time it appears that they may have jumped into the right place...
TOP KILL - FAILS:
This was probably our best and only chance to kill this well from the top down. This "kill mud" is a tried and true method of killing wells and usually has a very good chance of success. The depth of this well presented some logistical challenges, but it really should not of presented any functional obstructions. The pumping capacity was there and it would have worked, should have worked, but it didn't.
It didn't work, but it did create evidence of what is really happening. First of all the method used in this particular top kill made no sense, did not follow the standard operating procedure used to kill many other wells and in fact for the most part was completely contrary to the procedure which would have given it any real chance of working.
When a well is "Killed" using this method heavy drill fluid "Mud" is pumped at high volume and pressure into a leaking well. The leaks are "behind" the point of access where the mud is fired in, in this case the "choke and Kill lines" which are at the very bottom of the BOP (Blow Out Preventer) The heavy fluid gathers in the "behind" portion of the leaking well assembly, while some will leak out, it very quickly overtakes the flow of oil and only the heavier mud will leak out. Once that "solid" flow of mud is established at the leak "behind" the well, the mud pumps increase pressure and begin to overtake the pressure of the oil deposit. The mud is established in a solid column that is driven downward by the now stronger pumps. The heavy mud will create a solid column that is so heavy that the oil deposit can no longer push it up, shut off the pumps...the well is killed...it can no longer flow.
Usually this will happen fairly quickly, in fact for it to work at all...it must happen quickly. There is no "trickle some mud in" because that is not how a top kill works. The flowing oil will just flush out the trickle and a solid column will never be established. Yet what we were told was "It will take days to know whether it worked"...."Top kill might take 48 hours to complete"...the only way it could take days is if BP intended to do some "test fires" to test integrity of the entire system. The actual "kill" can only take hours by nature because it must happen fairly rapidly. It also increases strain on the "behind" portion and in this instance we all know that what remained was fragile at best.
Early that afternoon we saw a massive flow burst out of the riser "plume" area. This was the first test fire of high pressure mud injection. Later on same day we saw a greatly increased flow out of the kink leaks, this was mostly mud at that time as the kill mud is tanish color due to the high amount of Barite which is added to it to weight it and Barite is a white powder.
We later learned the pumping was shut down at midnight, we weren't told about that until almost 16 hours later, but by then...I'm sure BP had learned the worst. The mud they were pumping in was not only leaking out the "behind" leaks...it was leaking out of someplace forward...and since they were not even near being able to pump mud into the deposit itself, because the well would be dead long before...and the oil was still coming up, there could only be one conclusion...the wells casings were ruptured and it was leaking "down hole"
They tried the "Junk shot"...the "bridging materials" which also failed and likely made things worse in regards to the ruptured well casings.
80 Barrels per minute is over 200,000 gallons per hour, over 115,000 barrels per day...did we seen an increase over and above what was already leaking out of 115k bpd?....we did not...it would have been a massive increase in order of multiples and this did not happen.
Try finding THAT quote around...it's been scrubbed...here's a cached copy of a quote.
Later we found out that Allen had no idea what was really going on and had been "Unavailable all day"
So what we had was BP running out of 50,000 barrels of mud in a very short period of time. An amount far and above what they deemed necessary to kill the well. Shutting down pumping 16 hours before telling anyone, including the president. We were never really given a clear reason why "Top Kill" failed, just that it couldn't overcome the well.
There is only one article anywhere that says anything else about it at this time of writing...and it's a relatively obscure article from the Wall Street Journal "online" citing an unnamed source.
Wall Street Journal On-line
WASHINGTON—BP PLC has concluded that its "top-kill" attempt last week to seal its broken well in the Gulf of
Mexico may have failed due to a malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor.
The disk, part of the subsea safety infrastructure, may have ruptured during the surge of oil and gas up the well on April 20 that led to the explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, BP officials said. The rig sank two days later, triggering a leak that has since become the worst in U.S. history.
The broken disk may have prevented the heavy drilling mud injected into the well last week from getting far enough down the well to overcome the pressure from the escaping oil and gas, people familiar with BP's findings said. They said much of the drilling mud may also have escaped from the well into the rock formation outside the wellbore.
As a result, BP wasn't able to get sufficient pressure to keep the oil and gas at bay. If they had been able to build up sufficient pressure, the company had hoped to pump in cement and seal off the well. The effort was deemed a failure on Saturday.
BP started the top-kill effort Wednesday afternoon, shooting heavy drilling fluids into the broken valve known as a blowout preventer. The mud was driven by a 30,000 horsepower pump installed on a ship at the surface. But it was clear from the start that a lot of the "kill mud" was leaking out instead of going down into the well."
There are some inconsistencies with this article.
There are no "Disks" or "Subsea safety structure" 1,000 feet below the sea floor, all that is there is well bore. There is nothing that can allow the mud or oil to "escape" into the rock formation outside the well bore except the well, because it is the only thing there.
All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.
I took some time to go into a bit of detail concerning the failure of Top Kill because this was a significant event. To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, it was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.
What does this mean?
It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad, same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.
Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.
A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.
There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.
This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.
The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.
If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...
This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here.
The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.
These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. However.....as bad as that is?...it is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well. There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.
What is likely to happen now?
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of." The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.
It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.
We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.
Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.
We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.
The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.
Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.
We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.
The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...
We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.
We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...
and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....
Reference materials
Hafle said he made several changes to casing designs in the last few days before the well blew, including the addition of the two casing liners that weren't part of the original well design because of problems where the earthen sides of the well were "ballooning." He also worked with Halliburton engineers to design a plan for sealing the well casings with cement.What could have happened
Confidential Treatment Requested BP-HZN-CEC 018892
Confidential
Additional References
Doug R. (the author) - I used to cover the energy business (oil, gas and alternative) here in Texas, and the few experts in the oil field -- including geologists, chemists, etc. -- able or willing to even speak of this BP event told me early on that it is likely the entire reserve will bleed out. Unfortunately none of them could say with any certainty just how much oil is in the reserve in question because, for one thing, the oil industry and secrecy have always been synonymous. According to BP data from about five years ago, there are four separate reservoirs containing a total of 2.5 billion barrels (barrels not gallons). One of the reservoirs has 1.5 billion barrels. I saw an earlier post here quoting an Anadarko Petroleum report which set the total amount at 2.3 billion barrels. One New York Times article put it at 2 billion barrels.
If the BP data correctly or honestly identified four separate reservoirs then a bleed-out might gush less than 2 to 2.5 billion barrels unless the walls -- as it were -- fracture or partially collapse. I am hearing the same dark rumors which suggest fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway. Rumors also suggest a massive collapse of the Gulf floor itself is in the making. They are just rumors but it is time for geologists or related experts to end their deafening silence and speak to these possibilities.
All oilmen lie about everything. The stories one hears about the extent to which they will protect themselves are all understatements. BP employees are already taking The Fifth before grand juries, and attorneys are laying a path for company executives to make a run for it.
I read they estimated 40 mil barrels, it's common for oil cos to lie about size of reservoir so they can book reserves. Don't believe anything they say. If the well casing is damaged, it's leaking up the sides.
Yea... buy BP with both hands.(before you grab your knees)
This is an abiotic oil deposit. Practically no end to it. BP had no idea what they were messing with. This is not going to end well. IMHO, worst still to come.
IF it is actually an abiotic oil deposit,
it would be the first one ever found.
BP files 11 on June 30 (Next Wednesday)
Too much oil in the US is a problem for the Obama administration and cap and traders. They need expensive oil to promote their agendas.
Besides Soros billion dollar investment in Brazil's Petrobras needs a payback. And they need the US deep drilling equipment.
Who knew that the current CEO of Goldman Sachs is the former CEO of BP? Handy.
Looks like the GOM isn't the only disaster. Egypt is covering up their own spill.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=131409§ionid=351020502
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....my oh my ... the stench of apologia here for BP is rank
Wouldn't it be awesome if one of this year's tropical storm names was Hayward? Let's work on that for next year (online petition to the good souls at NOAA?)
Acadia
BP
Cheney
Deepwater
England
Fury
Gaffe
Hayward/Halliburton
Irrevocable
Jindal
Korrupt
Louisiana
Mendacious
Negligence
Obama/Oilcano
Petroleum
Queasy
ROVer
Salazar
Transocean
Unbelievable
Viscous
Why
XYZPDQ
Zooplankton
And on a lighter note, for those who have not seen it yet, is this scathing, funny-yet-sad commentary by Jon Stewart.
Stewart takes on America' Oil Dependence:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/17/stewart-takes-on-americas_n_615529.html
A relief well does not relieve the pressure, these wells are used to intercept the original well, where they will then plug it with drilling mud/cement.
The only way to 'relieve' the pressure as it were would be to remove sufficient oil/gas so that the pressure is lower than the seawater above and hence water would run down into the well rather than oil up out of it.
Technically, a relief well would reduce the pressure via increased release volume; which only gives further credence to the belief that the substratum is way too unstable to attempt additional bores for direct extraction/pressure relief.
And what happens when a mile tall column of water presses down on a half-empty cavern of hot oil 3.5 miles below the water's surface?
There is no "cavern" of oil, empty or full. Period. Oil and gas exist in the pores between the compacted grains of sand and rock. There is no cavern. I'm not trying to diminish this disaster. But to talk about caverns ruins your credibility.
Thanks, GW, for keeping this story active on ZH. Just wait till this hits the Tampa area; the outcry and gnashing of teeth will go parabolic.
Please don't cite Wolf Blitzer as a source. He's still confusing gallons with barrels. Matt Simmons an "expert"? Lied about the source for his "lake of oil" claim - they reported no such thing. No one has except Matt Simmons and people who quote him. Claims 40000 psi; not possible. Cracks in the sea floor? Not observed by a UGA research team that was looking for them. Drilled without a casing? Impossible. Oh - and he's shorted BP's stock. Rush in with a nuke? After claiming the Gulf is already fractured? WTF?
You're right; what were we thinking? Let's all turn to BP-TV to get our fresh-from-the-curbside 1,000 bpd green kool-aid.
Which lie do you think is hitting closer to the truth?
You mean to tell me there might not be a "Hollywood" ending to this disaster? I thought Kevin Costner was going to bring his miracle machines to the Gulf and clean the whole mess up. While Acorn mobilizes thousands of volunteers to wipe the oil off the baby shrimp. Why isn't Al Gore down there rubbing some salt in the wound? Obama is playing golf, Tony takes his kid sailing and the Gulf fills with oil and gas.
This whole thing stinks of an inside job/false flag gone terribly wrong to promote Cap and Trade. "Never let a crisis go to waste", Rahmbo.
Prefer to get my info from independent, credible sources. WaPo reporter on board the TJ research vessel. Data from the TJ research vessel. UGA Professor of Marine Biology just back from a Gulf expedition: "(17) Have you seen any evidence of other sources of oil such as might indicate fractures in the sea floor near to the site of the wellhead explosion? No, we have not seen any evidence of fractures in the seafloor near the riser pipe." No observations of oil leaking around the base of the BOP, which is where it would flow if it escaped the well. The situation is straight up horrorshow as it is but fanning the flames with unsubstantiated bullshit isn't helpful to anyone except the self promoters who pitch it.
Oh, yeah: Sources for Simmons being short 8000 shares of BP stock? Simmons, confirmed by Barrons.
http://gulfblog.uga.edu/
http://www.theoildrum.com/
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5670798591045714611#
animations of well-drilling process
Things sure has changed since Obama took office, and you better belive it!
"Experts: BP Lowballing Size of Leaking Oil Reservoir"
No, really?
Fellow ZHers,
I implore you to pay strict attention to the air sampling along the coast and who knows how far inland. You may try the EPA site but do you believe them more than the SEC, CFTC, BLS, ad. inf.
One hears almost nothing on the MSM about air testing. Of course, no one hears anything of real value on the MSM anyway. Possibly the Scripps or Woods Hole folks can be believed but they rely heavily on the Beast for funding.
Does anyone know any frequencies where HAM folks congregate from the southern coast to discuss what is happening? Any info certainly appreciated.
Thanks for the info GW
Very early accounts of the "spew" and the reservoir beneath were very large . The largest find in many years , reservoir going all the way under the mainland , not just the Gulf . BP wants this oil at any cost !! So does US Gov't . Why else all the stalling , obfuscation and lies . 10 billion in alleged recompence "fines" ( they will never be paid) are a drop in the bucket . Why do we think BP agreed to this amount ? Its chump change compared to the profits from this well alone .
BP Had the Technology to Accurately Measure the Oil Leak 2 Years Ago
A commenter at the Oil Drum raises an intriguing argument:
Would it surprise anyone to know that BP had already developed the technology to accurately measure troublesome oil and gas flow mixtures at the well head two years ago? It can be done remotely and continuously, at up to 10,000 feet, with a clamp-on, calibration free, sonar flow meter, or that the company that sells and installs them is
presenting at petroleum conventions in Calgary and Newfoundland this summer?
The reason BP does not want the true flow known, is that it would require them to pay the "legitimate" fines and royalties they owe on what is extracted, regardless of whether it is ever recovered. As of mid-June their violations of the Clean Water Act alone are around $10B.
The reason no other oil driller wants it known, is that they may own the next blowout and will also want to conceal their true obligations.
Expro Meters product video:
http://www.exprogroup.com/wp-content/uploads/FINAL_EXPROTOD.mov
Description from scandoil.com (http://www.scandoil.com/moxie-bm2/events/12_4/key-technologies-on-show-for-expro-at-canada-shows.shtml):
"Expro’s latest deepwater intervention technology will be showcased at both events. Expro’s AX-S system will break new ground in subsea well intervention when it comes to the market.
AX-S™ (pronounced ‘access’) brings cost-effective, riser-less intervention to deepwater wells (up to 10,000ft of water). Expro’s goal is to deliver a full range of wireline intervention services in deepwater wells at substantially less than the cost of using a rig.
***
Expro Meters offers wellhead surveillance on demand, utilizing a range of clamp-on sonar-based metering technology. Expro offers round-the-clock, 24/7 well surveillance, on any well type or location. Expro’s meters are clamp-on, non intrusive, easily installed and applied without production shutdown, providing operators with a
permanent solution to their wellhead production surveillance needs.
Expro Meters are also available on demand to provide quick and easy well testing services through our portable clamp-on meters – anywhere in the world."
This document is on BP's own website. It contradicts everything they have said about not being able to accurately measure the rate of their Gulf oil leak.:
Excerpt from p. 5 of BP's own Frontiers publication, August, 2008:
"... BP has identified that by combining sonar flow measurement with additional measured parameters, such as pressure drop in a flow line, both the liquid rate and the gas rate on a wet gas flow line can be determined. BP has proven this additional breakthrough in practice and expects to deploy the technique in the field by the end of this year.
"It appears that measuring hydrocarbon flows which contain small but troublesome percentages of liquids or gas may be less problematic in the future thanks to BP's creative vision for sonar flow measurement."
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/frontiers/STAGING/local_assets/pdf/bpf22_34-38_sonarflow.pdf
GW
It's pretty clear that neither BP nor the government wish to "know" how bad this "spill" is. When everyone is on a sinking ship, the "authorities" have no desire to alert the passengers how bad the situation is. The clear evidence that such a measuring device exists but isn't used or even discussed is itself just another example of lies begetting lies begetting more lies.
Remember that they kept high definition video away from the team trying to measure the flow for weeks. I also wonder exactly who is "independently" monitoring how much oil BP is really "capturing" and/or flaring. They have every reason in the world to lie.
Thanks for your efforts and ignore the paid trolls trying to discredit your work. You can always tell who they are by their use of derogatory and ad hominem attacks.
i am glad you are reporting the lies spewing forth from bp faster than oil is gushering in the gulf but this is not news....
anytime one of these cretin oil purveyors opens its mouth it utters lies and blasphemies aided and abetted by the current lying news-censoring president from indonesia who keeps his face plastered over every electron like stink on shit....
www.obamacrimes.com
Lord, have we reverted to a point where millions and billions are meaningful numbers again. Thank goodness this epic will not approach trillions as well. this is some really screwed up stuff and everyone in charge at BP should be locked up for a long long time. This is bullshit.
OK ok ok ok
So Peak Oil is a sham...you've done the math on this behemoth and you have looked outside the gospel of fossil fuels onto the Internets to understand that petroleum is probably abundant at depth but what you don't really appreciate is the silver lining in all this... besides carbon being demonstrably toxic by this debacle (and oh yes global warming from CO2... God, I love that chestnut)...and that is...(wait for it)...the next meme from Obpama and his bankster scarcity Marxist thugs will be the shortage of and private control of....CLEAN WATER!
....don't you know after this unfortunate eco-attack on the North American continent by Globalist private central banking polluting aristo-terrorists (Bilderberg-Rothscams) the price of pure and accessible water will now sky-rocket?
Gulags exist only because both the vulnerable and the powerful accept submission to a lower order.
That must be the most complicated route to insanity that I've ever read.
Tony, aren't you supposed to be at a yacht race?
LOL...skyrocket was hyperbole to underscore the next market for scare!city, 'concern' and of course taxation...cue Obama and the water cartels in 3, 2, 1....
Given that the Right honourable Augustus take so much of his precious time to come by and continue to discredit someone (actually a whole group of folks here), I'm more convinced of his Shilly status.
Mere refutation does not an argument make.
On other notes, everything about this "disaster" has a Katrina-esqe, rhyme of history to it. Even 9/11 esque.
Disinfo, obfuscation, site-control, destruction of evidence.
Here is a hypothesis.
9/11 : Air Terror
Sept. 2008/War on Terror : Ground Terror
GOM : Water Terror
Got us from all sides. We've been terrorized.
We've been taken from all three sides.
I smell "end-game" in the air.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
You forgot "stem rust" or whatever it is that has jumped from afrika to EU and may jump to US. So much for wheat. Not to mention huge increase in locusts west of Miss. River. = World wide famine.
Given that Oh regional India does not consider that "refutation does not an argument make"
May I propose that his ZH posting ID be installed into the Zero Hedge FANTASY BELIEVERS Hall of Fame.
Me thinks you doth protest too much...GW, thanks for trying to stay on top of this. However, the oil is not my biggest worry- it's the dispersants and the potentially lethal consequences. Especially with hurricane season predicted to be busier than normal.
Fighting over numbers that cannot be known because of company deception just gums up the thread.
Little is being done. What is being done is worse than the leak. The safety violations are criminal and should be adjudicated immediately. The WH is complicit and inept. The short term destruction of life and livelihood will be the greatest tragedy.
We have the engineering and know how, unfortunately, we fail to employ the safety measures detailed by the said engineers because of costs and profit.
Nature will heal the gulf, in the interim, we are stuck with the legacy of all large corporations: That their benefits exceed their costs. Bullshit.
Until corporations are bankrupted for bad behavior, we will see this scenario repeated ad infinitem. Until corporate boards and officers are jailed in maximum security prisons, this behavior will not change.
Of course, if the people had the gumption, they could take care of this on their own. Perhaps a rash of vigilantism might tell the government what the people really feel.
Does anyone know how much oil is currently escaping into the gulf -- how much is spewing and not being captured and pumped to ships?
No.
No one knows the leak rate. It has increased, no doubt.
Any "expert" with the highest current number is the current best "expert" for the media scare stories.
Geo Wash (Rosie O) will cut and paste the most extreme examples in a day or two. I am waiting for the measurements that show Galveston subsiding into the GOM as this well collapses the strata. geo Wash will surely note that.
When the full jerry rigged scheme is working as it's supposed to (no lightning strikes, pressure problems, maxed out flaring systems etc) they are supposed to be getting about 25,000 barrels per day. Maybe more (Friday they got over 13,000 in 12 hours). If the thing is leaking 35,000-65,000 then 10,000-40,000 are escaping.
Awfully wide range in those estimates, doncha think? BP may be getting over two thirds of it, or less than half. And the 400% range in the estimate of the remaining leak is just pathetic.
They should be forced to put a huge round valve on the damn thing just to measure it. Like the top hat with no lid.
Thank you, Jim. Do you have a link for that info? It would be very helpful for me.
Thanks.
Oh these were just from a Wall Street Journal update. You can hang around The Oil Drum if you want more techie stuff.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704122904575314973289650414.html
PS: Lord Augustus Snark wouldn't know a plume if it was coming out of his ass. I said they should be forced to measure the goddamn thing didn't I? Sheesh.
Doncha think that you should attempt to resolve the errors, doncha?
You can look at the prefious "plume" of escaping oil from a month back.
You can see the current plume.
Current capture is about 25,000 bpd. Do you believe that the reduction is only 25%? Doncha have an idea?