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Experts: BP Lowballing Size of Leaking Oil Reservoir
Blog
On May 1st, I warned
that the amount of oil spilling into the Gulf was much higher than
either the government or BP were admitting:
As a
story in the Christian Science Monitor shows,
the Gulf oil spill is much worse than we've been told:
It's
now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast
Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels,
or 210,000 gallons, a day.Independent scientists estimate that
the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to
25,000 barrels a day. If
chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be
released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.As
estimates of the spill increase, questions about the government's
honesty in assessing the spill are emerging.
***
"The
following is not public," reads National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28, according
to the Press-Register [see this]. "Two additional release points were found
today. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become
unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher
than previously thought."
An order of magnitude is a factor of 10.
The
Wall Street Journal reported Friday that John Amos, an oil industry
consultant, said that NOAA revised its original estimate of 1,000
barrels after he published calculations based on satellite data that
showed a larger flow.
The 5,000 barrels a day is the "extremely
low end" of estimates, Mr. Amos told the Journal.CNN
quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the
commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If
we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.Indeed,
an environmental document filed by BP estimates
the maximum as 162,000 barrels a
day:
In an exploration plan and environmental
impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP
said it had the capability to handle a “worst-case scenario” at the
Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000
barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout — 6.8
million gallons each day.
Now,
I am warning that the amount of oil still in the reservoir might be much bigger than BP is admitting.
Specifically,
BP claims that there are 50 million barrels worth of oil in the reservoir
underneath the leaking spill site.
But the Guardian noted
Friday:
But the 50m figure cited by
Hayward took some industry insiders by surprise. There have been
reports the reservoir held up to 500m barrels – the figure quoted by
Hayward's questioner, Joe Barton, a Republican from Texas.
"I
would assume that 500m
barrels would be a more likely estimate," said Tadeusz Patzek, the
chairman of the department of petroleum and geosystems engineering at
the University of Texas at Austin. "I don't think you would be going
after a 50mbarrel reservoir so quickly. This is just simply not enough
oil to go after."
Indeed, Wolf Blitzer said:
One
-- one expert said to me -- and I don't know if this is overblown or
not -- that they're still really concerned about the structural base of
this whole operation, if the rocks get moved, this thing could really
explode and they're sitting, what, on -- on a billion potential barrels of oil at
the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
Bloomberg notes:
The
ruptured well may hold as much as 1 billion barrels, the Times reported,
citing Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis in
Massachusetts.
Oil industry expert Matthew Simmons
also puts the number above one billion barrels (see this
Bloomberg interview, for example, where he says that - unless stopped -
120,000 barrels a day will leak for 25-30 years; that adds up to 1,095,000,000
to 1,314,000,000
barrels).
And Rob Kall claims
that a source inside BP tells him:
Size of reservoir -
estimated by BP and its partner, Andarko to be between 2.5B and 10B bbl.
(that's 100,000,000,000 gallons and 400,000,000,000 gallons).
Yes
- all of those numbers are BILLIONS.
Given that BP's
nearby Tiber
and Kaskida wells each contain at least 3 billion barrels of
oil (see this,
this,
this
and this),
estimates of more than a billion barrels for the leaking Macondo reservoir are not unreasonable.
Why the Size of the Reservoir Matters
The size of
the reservoir is important for several reasons. Specifically, the more
oil in the Macondo reservoir, the longer the oil leak will flow if the
efforts to cap it fail.
Moreover, higher volumes of oil and gas might change the pressure of materials gushing out of the leaking well. As CBS notes:
The oil emanating from the seafloor contains about 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent
found in typical oil deposits, said John Kessler, a Texas A&M
University oceanographer who is studying the impact of methane from the
spill.
I will leave it to the scientists to
calculate what a larger volume of oil (with 40% methane) would mean for
pressure. Higher pressure may make it harder to cap the leak, and may
wear out the casing quicker by speeding up the rate at which sand and
other small particles in the oil abrade the metal. Lower pressure would
ease both problems.
Finally, the more oil and gas in the
reservoir, the higher a priority the government may consider it to
produce the well at all costs. See this and this.
»
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I dunno which plume you mean... Doncha think THIS current plume is a bit... worrisome? Look at the direction of the oil in relation to the LMRP and BOP:
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/html/Skandi_ROV1.html
I'm REALLY curious to hear your take on this one...
It is very nearly impossible to estimate flow from looking at a plume. If you look at the several views and compare to a few weeks ago you can certainly tell that the leak volume is less.
In order to know if the current picture is "normal" it would be necessary to know if they have shut down some aspect of the capture because of a surface problem.
It is also necessary to be mindful of the fact that the flow is a large amount of gas. The "blow" from the gas will generate a large plume with a modest amount of oil. How much actual ink does a squid emit? A much smaller volume of actual oil would generate a large plume becasue of the gas expansion. I believe that this view of this side of the BOP has regularly shown a bigger plume as that is where the "seal" flap is missing.
"You can look at the prefious (sic) "plume" of escaping oil from a month back.
You can see the current plume."
"It is very nearly impossible to estimate flow from looking at a plume. If you look at the several views and compare to a few weeks ago you can certainly tell that the leak volume is less."
Ummm, so just so I've got it straight. Gauging the flow from looking at the flow is impossible AND you looked at it and gauged it to be less. Got it. That logic shit is a bitch, huh?
Apples & Oranges. Estimating the volume of the flow from only visual information is much different than making a high level value judgement about whether the flow has changed (increased or decreased) from the same information.
More like Granny Smiths to Fujis, really.
LE BLOB:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/06/le-blob-d-neu-orleans.html
RARE TROPICAL FISH SPOTTED:
http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/06/tropical-fish-spotted.html
I was wondering when you were going to do a Blob cartoon! :)
Thank you ZH for continuing to post this very serious spill. Keep in mind there may be trillions of cubic feet of methane that come out with the oil and stay in solution depleting the oxygen in large portions of the GOM making these areas equivalent to several dead seas. As oxygen is depleted more marine life die creating more decay/baterera which will consume the remaining oxygen. Also there is benzene fumes coming out with the oil which will can kill humans. It will take another 60 days to prove if Matt Simmons is right or wrong. He claims the relief well has zero chance of success since the casing string has essentially collasped. If this well leaks millions or possibly billions of bbls, it will be worse than the subprime diaster but concentrated in FL/MS/LA/AL. Texas will also be hit as nearly all domestic drilling (both onshore & offshore) will be stopped and deemed too risky. How can anyone invest without knowing if the leak or LEAKS can be stopped?
The is simply more of the recent nonsense that has appeared on ZH. The well logs are available for anyone to look at as they are part of the info at the House Energy Committee info dump. They pay zone is only 65'. The production is a very high ratio of gas, not all oil. The recent estimates of 25,000 bopd seem to be pretty accurate when compared to the volumes collected at the surface. Anyone who continues to propose the 100,000 bopd number must have been on a very long binge drunk.
The relatively nearby wells with large reservoirs made this an attractive exploratory prospect. They shoot the seismic and make some evaluations before drilling. The general size of the reservoir and the oil content can only be estimated. Once they have drilled it they can actually determine the thickness, porosity and permeability of the rock. Using that information along with the seismic to plot the extend of the "dome", BP can estimate the size of the reserves. Anyone making estimates without the BP seismic is just pulling numbers out of their butt.
The bigger the number that they propose, the larger the butt hole.
so why don't they, bp, make the information
the 3d plots and plans,(the pretty and informative chromatographic ones) available for consideration? or why doesn't the "government" require it, also their in house
analysis of said geophysical seismic data and interpretations?
because it is non yo business?
bp is not only in charge of this response they are
also manufacturing a legal defense and timeline
of information for their defense. they are
compromised and in no position to be any kind of
honest broker. so, as things stand it seems, we
have to trust them. huge problem, fatal perhaps.
trust the defendant usually does not qualify as
evidence to open and shut the case. ah, but there
is no criminality here, only business and making and saving money. and whatnot/. fiat money
and supplying the defense department with fuel.
ongoing, and suck it up, the oil from it's primary
container, the gulf where used to be fish to eat,
now an extension of the industrial storage infrastructure for energy needs of industrial
superpowers.
.
http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/2007/07083chowdhury/index.htm
.
gom= 643 quadrillion gallons of water, so i read.
?
All fine and good. I have no idea what the estimated reserves are, but BP is on record stating the worst case scenario of a leak at Horizon. This amount is much less than BP made known to the public after the initial blowout.
The 162,000 bpd was BEFORE they had drilled into a modest 65' payzone. It does take a reservoir to deliver the oil.
May I suggest you click on the link noted in my post, below. That article also reflects government and government agency documents that further substantiate, in my judgment, GW's assertions.
No, they do not substantiate the GW assertions. I'm not aware of whatever assertions you have made. GW has morphed into a BP blowout version of Rosie O'Donnell troofer. The assertions are as much fantasy as the movie Jurassic Park. You know that there were actual dinosaurs. Where are they hiding? Look outside. They, or Godzilla, could be in your back yard right now.
If not the dinosaurs that get you , it will be The Blob.
"Where are they hiding?"
They were hiding in the basement of WTC 7, but after a few hours of what is claimed to be a diesel fire in a limited section of the steel framed structure, the entire building fell at about 9.8 m/s/s and killed the dinosaurs.
I have this funny feeling that Deepwater Horizon was either
a. sabotaged
or
b. capitalized on by the powers that be to push Cap and Trade.
If a, then this is payback for the global warming debacle at Copenhagen, when the rest of us realized the thing was a scam.
equally plausible that Goldman Sacs former board member and BP chairman arranged sabotage, not to advance some politic agenda, but to make money....Halliburton buys clean up company Boots and Coots right before spill, Gsacs shorts BP right before spill...its possible for BP people and their friends to make money even while BP goes down...
This scenario of bad acts of companies for profit is no more or less plausible than you scenaro of bad acts of polticians to forward their corrupt aims...
if one is possible, either is possible/plausible...open you mind, be skeptical, but ben skeptical of both sides
Doesn't take much to wonder if that scenario is plausible. Digging about reviewing early news can lead one to raise questions. For example, why were SWAT teams sent to many platforms in the GoM, per public (published statements) comments of Federal officials. Last time I checked, SWAT teams were not trained in well head recovery techniques. There were numerous other Odd-Ball, Strange occurrences which I do not remember nor am I going to take the time to research at this moment, but do recollect raising the eyebrow several times.
I'm not professing this as plausible or assigning any probability thereto. Simply stating that its a durn-tootin' certain-teed occurrence to generate robust "Conspiracy Theory" considerations.
You are right on my friend. The well was sabotaged to effect the green movement agenda Obama espouses. The explosion occurred on Earth day for Christ's sake. They think we're idiots and they're right.
Yeah ... pay no attention to problems going back to February... <eyeroll>
Thank you, GW. Excellent as always. A lot of this information and more is contained in an excellent Rolling Stone article brought to my attention by another ZH poster:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/111965
I would not be so upset but for the unshakable feeling that even at this late date, not everything possible is being done to contain the spill and that either politics or coverup or both are still in play to everyone;s detriment except for the interested parties.
This is not a SPILL, (misnomer), it's a friggin geyser.........
A spill is something your clean up, and it's gone.
Would it not be more upsetting if everything possible is being done??
The keeping the media away from the beaches, the no-fly-zones, the NDA's that rescue workers must sign, the replacement of news with propaganda and the bumbling ineptitude of Obama make it obvious, IMO, that something truly terrible is going on!
Mitchman:
Thanks. Did you link to the right RS article? That one looks like it's about Wall Street, rather than oil spill. Or am I missing something?
The post is no different in analysis than Rosie O'Donnell and the Troofer scampade.
You might have overlooked a fact or two. There is a BOP and wellhead attached.
What do you want to explain about Sigsby Salt? Is it tastey on crow?
My apologies. You obviously know a great deal more about this than we do. If they'd only called you during the first 24 hours we could have finished this up five weeks ago.
No, they would not have finished 5 weeks ago. I agree with BP that the cure is the bottom kill from the so called relief wells. They have projected it to be able to intersect in August. How much time does it take to make a bit trip from 14,000' if they need to do an extra one?
It takes about nine months to have a normal human baby. You can have an abortion delivered as soon as you want it.
Tell you what. I, and the rest of the posters on this blog will be around in August when GW brings us up to date on the progress of the relief wells and the update (to the extent the government lets us know) of the spread of the small oil dribble coming out of the minuscule lacuna on the Gulf bottom. We look forward to hearing from you then.
I'm still offering to take wagers on 12/31 as an over under date for the kill. I expect that it will be some time in August. The nutters expect it to continue forever. Which event will you wager on?
I have not stated or written that the spill is inconsequential or small. The argument is about 100,000 bpd from day one, or even the possibility of 100,000 bpd, of if the well can swallow and collapse the GOM because it has 60,000 psi at 18,000 ft. and is actually leaking from seven miles away from the well location. It is pure nonsense. The initial flow rate has increased, no doubt, and from slight erosion of the BOP and downhole blockages.
Can you provide information of the Sigsby Salt? Geo Wash indicated that she knew something about it, but has not responded with requests for scary predictions. All I know is that a salt layer is difficult to shoot seismic through so the Sigsby salt made it more difficult to see below and pick exploration targets. Geo Wash seems to imply that there are monsters below the Sigsby Salt so "do not drill there." Do you have knowledge of the Sigsby monsters?
Please define "Anoxia" and then talk about relief wells. I won't mention the increase in seismic activity in the Carribian. You may also wish to research the storage models of the Strategic Oil Reserve.
Look. I think that we can both agree that from the very beginning the information regarding the rate of flow from the spill has been lowballed by both BP and the administration. The point that the article in RS makes, I believe, is that right off the bat, the NOAA went to a much, much higher number. The lack of information and the obvious attempts by the company (as aided and abetted by the administration and as documented conclusively in the RS article) has raised the suspicion that the rate of flow from the well(s) is greater than that being reported. Let's face it: Obama and the company at this point have no credibility. Thus, the "scientific" basis for your estimates can be considered as thin (and in a a way more politically self serving to the interested parties) than the scientific estimates for 100,00 bbl/day or even 169,000 bbl/day. Two things are certain: The company and the government have blocked any and all independent research into determining the exact or even approximate rate of flow; and second, no one knows when and if the well(s) can be capped. Your bet of 12/31 is really not much of a bet. A gutsy bet would be 8/31-just like the company and the government say. You may, with your background believe that it is an aggressive date. But then 8/31 becomes yet another lie being told to the public; another unrealistic expectation being created and another reason to believe a GW column rather than what the PTB say-even if it may be closer to the "truth".
You were initially correct but have redacted and now have the link we want. Thank you again for another great post, GW.
If this is true then BP people are going to worried about uprise much more than AIG ever was - lets hope they get their justice - This would be terrible for Obama as well given that whole unprecendented open government thing, so damn transparent indeed.
Wow. I would have a much better feeling about this if BP and the White House were discussing what to do if/when the relief wells don't work. Why not try dropping a larger diameter casing over the leak? We really need to start ramping up the containment scenarios. Why doesn't Barack o' Potus enlist the college campuses* for ideas? What about private individuals. Hell, anybody! Make it a national priority and we might get some crazy idea that works. I don't think Red Adair's idea of explosions at the wellhead to eliminate oxygen was initially met with unanimous approval.
* can't bring myself to say campii
Cursive,
Because what the GP is not hearing, is the majority of the oil spewing, is NOT from the Wellhead...........the Gulf Floor is fractured Horizontally, and leaking in many places.(IOW), the Dome may be totally at risk of fracture.
No Cursive, the Obamanation is too busy pushing his cap and trade tax, at the behest of his handlers, GS, GE, Shell and the rest of the gang of thieves. Also, I hear he needs to work on his golf short game.
Cursive,
All your suggestions make sense. And they won't be considered. Because the entire effort of BP and the WH is to downplay the "what ifs" and kick the can down the road to the "relief" wells, when we will all be "relieved" they have reached their destination. Until we are told there are small "problems" which will continuously push the "relief" further down the road.
Anyone from either the WH or BP discussing worst case scenarios will be immediately fired and investigated for leaking national security information. Because that's exactly what this has been classified, as a national security issue and the public no longer has, nor never had, a "need to know" beyond what we are told we need to know. Period. End of story.
Once the lies begin, which in this case started the moment the rig exploded, every single lie afterward is intended to cover up prior lies or create new ones to take over the heavy lifting from the old ones. Change you can believe..........no.......that you have relief in.
Well said, Cognitive!
BP has steadfastly refused to disclose vital information about this well (e.g. the all-important "mudlogs"), a casual review of which would reveal just how dangerous the current situation truly is.
What We Know:
1. The daily spill is far greater than the US Govt & BP are admitting.
2. The oil & gas pressures have been increasing (not a good sign).
3. BP's 2 "relief" wells won't be ready until August; this assumes that those drillers don't encounter the problems that BP et al encountered with the first well.
4. Tropical Storm Alex is headed that way
5. There is a reasonable likelihood that the blown-out well could rupture, due to very high pressure oil, gas, & sand released.
Sadly, I'd have to say this disaster is gonna get much worse over the next 2 months, even under the most ideal conditions.
we just need another distraction right now. how about a failed treasury auction?
I vote for another capture of al Qaeda's number 3, I never get tired of those
It is as if Basil Fawlty were in the role of POTUS.
From a NYT/CBS News poll published just a few minutes ago:
Respondents were nearly evenly split on the president’s handling of the economy — 45 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. His job approval rating remains just below 50 percent. And by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Americans think the country is on the wrong track.
They are also impatient with Mr. Obama’s response to the oil disaster in the gulf, by a large margin, and attribute the spill to risks taken by BP and its partners in the failed well, according to the poll, which was conducted by telephone from June 16 to 2o with 1,259 adults.
Orszag and Rham Emanuel are both fed up with it too. They're dropping like flies over this. We are going to have a bloody November...
Emanuel SHOULD go... he's been getting Obama to "put points up on the board" at any cost, by accepting weak, compromised, ineffective legislation from highly bribed and conflicted legislators, like the credit card and health care "reform" (ha!ha!) bills, soon to be including finreg also.
I say good riddance... Obama should boot his ass out along with turbo tax tim, that pompom waving cheerleader rohmer, salazar, summers/rubin, and that awol guy in the AG's office who doesn't appear to have ever even shown up in the DoJ office ONCE... what's his name, holder?
Personally I'd boot his entire fucking staff and Cabinet if I were him and start from scratch... they absolutely sabotaged everything he ever claimed he would do. How could it be worse... even a bunch of homeless street drunks could do a better job of setting policy.
BP Oil disaster != 9/11, BP Oil Disaster = Iranian Hostage Crisis!
Obamatron = Jimmy Carter V2.0
Every day that this drags on becomes another nail in Obamatron's coffin, and he knows it.
Change you can believe in.
If we don't get a handle on this, we're all going to get changes we can't deny.
Cursive, let's expand your idea. Perhaps one of the wealthy residents of ZH (of which I'm sadly not one) would like to pony up 250K for a 2010 "O" prize? Sadly, all we're left with are people who only respond positively to money as an incentive, so let's exploit that for the greater good this time around.
MP
250k?? that's it?? crap let's just get together and scam BP out of some of that $20 billion liability money... then we can use it short the hell out of them.. or make some sea turtle CSO's but hey you don't any money to do the last part
Forgot to mention; I'm following the BP / Gov playbook here. I'm starting the bidding at 250K, but then I'll quietly double that figure each day for the foreseeable future...
MP
Yes we had heard estimates the field rivaled the house of Saud.
Now the real worry is what is underneath that?
The Kraken.