As Extended And Emergency Unemployment Benefits Finally Begin Expiring, A Much Different Employment Picture Emerges

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Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:44 | 255105 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Now there you go again, letting the air out of the "things are getting better" balloon faster than the Ponzi can refill it.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:48 | 255245 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Harry Reid says....

"Today is a big day in America, only 36,000 people lost their jobs today, which is really good."

March 5, 2010

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:06 | 255270 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This must be great then....

The Middle Class Financial Compact Being Washed Away – Income Dilution and the Saving Disparity. 57 Million Households Live on $52,000 Per Year or Less.

The middle class is finding itself struggling to keep what was once seen as staples of a burgeoning working class in our country. Part of this battle has come from a system that has rewarded easy finance on the backs of the working class. Take for example residential real estate. For decades, this was probably one of the most boring and dull sectors of the economy. Residential real estate, if you were lucky, only tracked the overall inflation rate. That was the case until the banking system figured out a way to securitize bread and butter mortgages and turn them into securities for global consumption. Yet that game is now coming to a quick end. The middle class are literally being squeezed out of their homes. Healthcare costs are also cutting deeper into the wallets of most American families and many are finding that they have no coverage as unemployment is still at record levels. This decade will be a struggle for the middle class to save and prosper.

When I look at the above chart it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that many people are still in the throngs of the recession. The talk of recovery is muted by the reality of the numbers and all the average American will see is a recovery on Wall Street but in terms of their pocket book, little is funneling to them. I’ve heard from people across the country looking for work and being unable to find anyone hiring. And if they do find something, the wages are much less than what they once earned. This isn’t reflected in the data. How many people that are now marked as fully employed are in jobs that now pay less than what they once had? That is why problems even in credit cards are filtering all the way to the bottom of the bank balance sheet. People are relying on credit cards as their last lifeline and many banks are now shutting these off.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:16 | 255286 WaterWings
Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:40 | 255323 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The most insidious part of social engineering (never let a crisis go to waste) is creating the conditions upon which the desired change is demanded by the population. Stress the population to the point where they start striking out in frustration (making sure you salt the crowd with agent provocateurs to create the desired outcome, which is an old CIA/NSA/police tactic) and the majority will beg for troops and police to clamp down on civil rights to restore "order".

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 17:23 | 255396 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Martial law is gonna suck.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 18:06 | 255465 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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"Martial law is gonna suck."  Well, I hope it sucks for Harry Reid. 

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 18:58 | 255558 WaterWings
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Berkeley trying to live up to it's reputation from the 70's last week - provocateurs @ 2:45:

Same protest - girl snatched and charged with "inciting a riot"; interesting part is the arrest tactic using a fake cell phone caller to block the crowd from assisting @ 0:30:

According to the this video's maker, Narukami, the girl was "taken and arrested by police while she was telling everyone how a police officer punched her in the nose."


The two people arrested were Marika Goodrich, a 28-year-old woman from Berkeley who is facing charges of assault on a police officer and resisting arrest, and Zachary Miller, a 27-year-old Berkeley man who faces charges of inciting a riot, resisting arrest and attempting to disarm a police officer.

Sucks to be a "first mover".

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 01:41 | 255898 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That was a pretty sneaky move, but effective. I went to Cal and participated in a lot of demonstrations... the Berkeley cops are good at handling those situations. When I was there (in the late 80's), they almost always out maneuvered the students, much to our chagrin. They've all had more practice at that than the students who just come through for four years.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 17:55 | 256356 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Based on the evidence of this video alone, the police falsely arrested that girl. Also, she was assaulted and deprived of her free speech rights. I say this because:

1) She was telling the protestors to "back up" - this is exact opposite of inciting them.

2) She was not unduly loud, she was not by herself disturbing the peace or anything else.

3) "Phone man" is obviously a cop and he intentially walked directly into her, put his arm on her, prevented her from backing away from the riot police (who advanced at that exact moment) and he also pushed her. This is a clear-cut assault.

4) It's especially egregious as she was in the middle of publically protesting mistreatment (bloody nose) which she was alleging the riot police did. I think she was reciting the badge numbers of the offenders.

This is an outrageous and offensive act by city-controlled riot squad. Interestingly enough, the Liberals rule in that city and yet look how the cops treat people.

The was NO reason for the cops to grab that girl - none shown on this video at least.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 19:37 | 256414 perchprism
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So you have two arrested Bezerkelies, one 27 and one 28---> are they still students?  At that age?

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:44 | 255106 Fritz
Fritz's picture

The repetitive extension of unemployment benefits is, quite frankly, about all that congress can accomplish.


Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:48 | 255110 Racer
Racer's picture

What this means for the economy and the market is that, the green shoots brigage will look at the falling numbers (even though no one has got a new job) and say look at all the new jobs found because the numbers went down dramatically.

Boom time for the stock market and even futher away from main street reality.


The market just looks at the headline that is fed to them, forget massive birth/death adjustments and big revisions to previous data...

as long as the first number that is flashed past the computer is enough to get the lemmings buying that is all that counts

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:14 | 255149 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Well what GS didn't get into in their report was the trickle up theory or the ramifications to the economy because of this . How many more home foreclosures will this create? Because these individuals families will be buying less to spend what will be the result on retail sales ? Because there are less sales how many more layoffs in retail and closings of stores ? How many more commercial real estate foreclosures will result? With congress now having fiscal constraints the only thing they can do now is keep these extensions open or add a few more -zero stimulus for creating jobs .So where are the jobs going to come from ? etc etc etc.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:20 | 255180 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You forgot the CC and/or personal defaults ...

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:49 | 255114 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

On the other hand, I'm getting this feeling that as the extended benefits expire, there will be FEWER UNEMPLOYED by the gubmint's peculiar logic.. that's BULLISH for stocks!!!! In fact, if there is NO volume in stocks because nobody is getting benefits anymore, the quant kids will run this market to infinity on non volume algos. Its the perfect fucking storm!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:52 | 255120 Racer
Racer's picture

Reality is just a mere hindrance and a buying opportunity


Dotcom was a bear market in comparison to this folly of a market

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 18:28 | 255510 Mission Stupid
Mission Stupid's picture

We should ditch minimum wage laws and cut unemployment benefits and make everyone work for what they are worth.  Of course there will be riots, but there will riots no matter what.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 21:35 | 255745 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Either you're joking or you have aptly named yourself.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 00:17 | 255839 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I couldn't agree with you more. It is about
time we eliminate all of these entitlement
programs like unemployment, minimum waqge,
and social security. Then people will
actually have to work for what the market rate
is. It isn't society's problem if their skills
aren't worth a damn in an ever changing, global,
dynamic economy. People need to be self sufficient
and carry themselves by their own bootstraps. If
they aren't, Darwinism should eliminate the weak.

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 01:31 | 255895 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You're a Christian, right?

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 11:03 | 256029 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What if you or your child happens to be one of the weak?

Sat, 03/06/2010 - 11:39 | 256055 Mission Stupid
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At the very least, reduce the minimum wage during this deleveraging cycle.

"If a higher minimum wage increases the wage rates of unskilled workers above the level that would be established by market forces, the quantity of unskilled workers employed will fall. The minimum wage will price the services of the least productive (and therefore lowest-wage) workers out of the market. ... The direct results of minimum wage legislation are clearly mixed. Some workers, most likely those whose previous wages were closest to the minimum, will enjoy higher wages. Other, particularly those with the lowest prelegislation wage rates, will be unable to find work. They will be pushed into the ranks of the unemployed or out of the labor force.Gwartney, James D.; Richard L. Stroup. Economics: Private and Public Choice -

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:49 | 255116 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I guess the US government's best hope is for all of those who run out of benefits is to just die. The government certainly has no experience in successful job expansion. They could make another war, but to get rid of this population, we would have to absorb some serious collateral damage. I figure that this group will just go postal and we will have to pull troops off the war fronts and on to Main Street. Guess Nazi Pelosi was right, after all....

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:08 | 255148 Postal
Postal's picture

...go postal...

That's my job...

While usually I support free-market attitudes, I find Kudlow's latest rants against UI exentions annoying. It's easy for those who have never been SERIOUSLY unemployed to complain about UI; however, other than the "let them eat cake" response, I've seen nothing productive. I took all the UI I could get before I found work--it's not like I had a choice, and the Kudlow's of the world certainly weren't offering to help.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:42 | 255327 swamp
swamp's picture

The Katrina 'victims' relied on the government too.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:55 | 255125 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Obama was on TV this morning saying he was going to extend unemployment comp to the end of this year.

That's good but honestly, America is coming to the end of the proverbial rope.

Job creation is about negative millions a year at this point.

The FED is buying their own paper to support this (this being a happy cow marketplace in Walt Disney Land).

This can't go on forever.

They'll pack all the bad paper into the America Pinata and then set it on fire.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:10 | 255152 lovejoy
lovejoy's picture

I believe that he was talking of extending Tier 1 to Tier 4 till the end of the year. There will not be an extension of benefits for longer than 99 weeks.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:12 | 255156 Cognitive Dissonance
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"Obama was on TV this morning saying he was going to extend unemployment comp to the end of this year."

Translation: Safely past the November elections.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:24 | 255193 AnonymousMonetarist
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Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:09 | 255275 carbonmutant
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Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:44 | 255330 swamp
swamp's picture

It's QE to infinity — a la Argentina and beyond.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:57 | 255129 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm sure abby jo da ho can explain why we shouldn't give a shit

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:57 | 255130 Oxytan
Oxytan's picture

Very good information, but what does the stock market have to do with the real economy now?  To illustrate I quote from The New York Times: "The stock market continues strongly upward, though movements last week were less violent than the week preceding.  Price up 12% Above October, Nearly Ten Times Above January."  Care to guess how that particular economy was doing in 1922?  We'll it didn't improve much.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:13 | 255161 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It probably improved by '23 ?

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 14:58 | 255131 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All of this equals? = Massively higher stock prices.

Good anaylsis, but any analysis right now is over analysis. Stocks, and all assets, for that matter, WILL be lifted higher. The Fed's solvency depends upon that happening.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:06 | 255144 doublethink
doublethink's picture


Charting The Depression


The only chart needed to understand where we really are.


Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:25 | 255194 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Ah but look on the bright side ...

Its' making a smiley face!

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:43 | 255329 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

An Olympic "big hill" ski jump.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 18:46 | 255536 Mission Stupid
Mission Stupid's picture

It is amazing how smooth and continuous the current unemployment curve is relative to previous recessions.  Any additional downward trend inflection points will make the double dip recession/depression official.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:08 | 255145 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Hard to tout a recovery when your next door neighbor kills his/her pets for food and your other neighbor is waving a "WILL WORK FOR FOOD" sign on the local interstate ramp, while two doors over Bob has turned to pimping out Sally, his wife, for $50 bucks a pop.

I guess it's also hard to explain $20,000,000 salaries.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:08 | 255147 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Why does Goldman refer to the unemployed as 'workers'?

Ok, I admit it's better than calling them 'soylent green'.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:23 | 255191 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Q: Why does Goldman refer to the unemployed as 'workers'?

A: The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as "not in the labor force."

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:45 | 255239 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

At some point in the past, when they paid tax, they indirectly worked for Goldman. As a taxpayer, Goldman considers you their worker.

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:15 | 255166 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The real take home point is what do millions with no benefits do all day. Once the money tree is exhausted out come the pitch forks

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:21 | 255186 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

In the year 2000:

Civilian noninstitutional population : 212,577,000
Civilian labor force : 142,583,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 67.1%
Number of employed : 136,891,000
Percent of Population : 64.4%
Number of unemployed : 5,692,000
Percent of Population : 4.0%
Not in the labor force : 69,994,000

Let's compare that to February 2010:

Civilian noninstitutional population : 235,998,000
Civilian labor force : 153,512,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 64.8%
Number of employed : 138,641,000
Percent of Population : 58.5%
Number of unemployed : 14,871,000
Percent of Population : 9.7%
Not in the labor force : 83,487,000

Holy denominator of doom oh ye bullisht throngs!

13 million people, over the last decade, have neither jobs nor any desire to look for one?

That's greater than the total increase of the civilian labor force!

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:28 | 255200 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Are children and retired/disabled people included in those #'s maybe that 's the 13 million?

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 15:54 | 255261 AnonymousMonetarist
AnonymousMonetarist's picture

Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population - The civilian population excluding persons residing in institutions. Such institutions consist primarily of nursing homes, prisons, jails, mental hospitals, and juvenile correctional facilities.

Civilian Population - The portion of the resident population not in the active-duty military.

Resident Population - The resident population includes all residents (both civilian and Armed Forces) living in the United States. The geographic universe for the resident population is the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

In 1977, the definition of resident was significantly changed.

Since the 1980 Census, a dwelling unit method has been consistently used, by OEP, in the 37 communities with a 1980 population of 5,000 or more. In all remaining communities, from 1980 to issuance of the 1986 estimates, a method of employing resident tax data was used. However, beginning with the 1987 estimates some communities discontinued the resident tax.

Couldn't though get a quick clear definition of resident so went backwards ...

Population (2008 estimate) of United States was 304,059,724
and persons under 18 years old represent 24.3% of that so it is clear that the Civilian noninstitutional population doesn't include kids...

Retired not included in labor force ...

Lots of folks have been 'retired' eh?

Fri, 03/05/2010 - 16:20 | 255293 WaterWings
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