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"Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds" still not available on Kindle

naufalsanaullah's picture




 

Though millions of people are buying Kindles, the Charles Mackay classic is still unavailable in Kindle edition. (Click here to request the publisher to do so). Evidently Kindle buyers are busy reading Jim Cramer's books, which are ever-so-conveniently already available in Kindle editions.

Amazon (AMZN) released earnings after the bell on Friday, with 85 cents EPS vs 72 cents consensus. The $9.5 billion in revs beat both the consensus top-line estimates from analysts ($9.04B) and management guidance from Q3 ($8.13-9.13B).

But the earnings beat came with its dose of bad news, too. Gross margins were down 260bps sequentially and 65bps year-over-year (on a pro forma basis) and international operating margins were down 45bps sequentially and 43bps YoY.

 

In addition, Amazon was forced to cave to publisher MacMillan's eBook pricing demands, and will be repricing certain books from $9.99 to $14.99 contingent on consumer response.

Meanwhile, Apple announced the iPad, which will be a direct competitor to Amazon's eBook business.

What's all of this mean? About nothing, really. Amazon's stock has more than tripled from its lows, its EV/EBITDA is currently at 43.6x, and its P/E at 68.79. What drove this (and every other) stock up in 2009 was a combination of onetime bank injections (via AIG CDS unwinds) catalyzing a negative convexity dynamic hedging-driven short covering rally and the combined effects of QE liquidity and the USD-funded carry trade.

Now, with QE liquidity dried and credit events flaring up left and right (Greece in crisis, sovereign CDS breaking out, CRE defaults all over the news, and the housing double-dip manifesting), it's time to look toward the exits.

And boy are the people in AMZN exiting.

The stock is down close to 7% on 13.6M shares traded just two hours into today's session. The margin decline and eBook repricing are the primary culprits, but beware of upcoming analyst downgrades to push more selling.

The important $116 support level is close to being taken out. If it does, the break could trigger some big selling that could eventually send this stock back to pre-Q3 2009 earnings levels back in the double digits.

But the real problem is not in what the fundamental news events cause (selling in the short term). It's what their effects catalyze, which is a shift in momentum that will drive momo chasers (the thesis behind the entire demand in the equity market) to selling rather than buying. And this into a very illiquid market environment.

Still deciding whether or not I will be shorting in size on the breakdown, but shorting AMZN today could end up being one of the bigger trades of 2010.

Either that or the Dow 30,000 trade.

AMZN

 

 

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Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:00 | 213409 Master Bates
Master Bates's picture

Well Amazon's chart looks similar to Gold's chart, so you'd think that at least the people on ZH would be extremely bullish on it.
I guess that there are two kinds of analysis - analysis and wishful thinking...
I think that Amazon might be overvalued currently, but I still like it's future prospects.  I spend GOBS of money on Amazon every year.  Any time it's hard to find anything locally, I bust out the checkbook and surf Amazon.  Plus, its prices are so much better than other retailers.  I got a 200 something dollar scope for my gun for 85 bucks on Amazon.  I consistently save money on ink for my printer, on textbooks for school, and on music and pretty much anything else.

I do think that the stock has run too far too fast, but I also see enormous potential in the future of the stock.  I think that Amazon is the Walmart of the web with a market share that will only increase.
Is the stock fairly valued?  I don't know, I haven't done the proper analysis on it - but that descending triangle on the chart looks pretty ominous.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:18 | 213437 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

For anyone interested:

AMZN daily and weekly charts are both bearish.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

 

 

 

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 14:28 | 213449 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"...combination of onetime bank injections (via AIG CDS unwinds) catalyzing a negative convexity dynamic hedging-driven short covering rally and the combined effects of QE liquidity and the USD-funded carry trade."

In other words, Bull shit.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:10 | 213527 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I bought my copy of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions.." from Amazon back in 1998.

Still read through the first three chapters occassionally for a laugh.

Best part- page 58. Describing the sale of 1000 shares of stock in "A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is" within a period of five hours.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:22 | 213550 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Gutenberg project has been posting public-domain works online since the days of FTP yore. Pretty sure that's still available for download. iPhone app Stanza has a link to these titles and more.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:37 | 213577 Species8472
Mon, 02/01/2010 - 16:10 | 213614 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Or in HTML or PDF

http://www.archive.org/stream/extraordinarypop014178mbp/extraordinarypop...

http://www.archive.org/details/extraordinarypop014178mbp

Ahhh, poor greedy capitalists... so often you complain about others getting stuff for cheaper or for free because they just simply make the effort to look. Is it greed or is it jealousy?

I wonder.

- D'oh, person below already has the site. Ahhh, beauty at it's finest!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 15:28 | 213558 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Not available on Kindle, but pull it up on your iPad here.

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 17:15 | 213769 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Thanks

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 18:33 | 213899 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I have an analog copy, thanks. Viva the Tulip Bubble!

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 19:07 | 213952 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'm waiting for an apple tablet thingy, the oversized iPhone thingy that runs on FreeBSD I mean Apple OS Panther or Stankhole or whatever they renamed it instead of saying FreeBSD.

With that, I can PRON!!

Teh intardwebs. You founded them.

-MobBarley

Mon, 02/01/2010 - 23:36 | 214321 RoastingBankers
RoastingBankers's picture

amzn is a pos

rimm= pos

bidu=pos

goog=pos

aapl=pos

nflx=super pos

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 00:07 | 214359 Charles Mackay
Charles Mackay's picture

Thanks for promoting my book.

But how do I collect royalties from my grave?

 

Charles

 

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 07:24 | 214512 Anton LaVey
Anton LaVey's picture

That's why it's called "public domain", Charles.

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 05:50 | 214491 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Amazon stock up on crappy products at shitty prices...

Isn't that the Amerikan way?

Tue, 02/02/2010 - 07:50 | 214522 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The iPad isn't a direct Kindle competitor any more-so than a laptop. Perhaps you've never used an e-ink display and don't understand the advantages over traditional LCDs.

Mon, 07/25/2011 - 08:50 | 1490185 mediaprizm
mediaprizm's picture

Kindle Wireless Reading Device that uses a wireless connection, users can buy, browse and read e-books, newspapers, magazines, blogs, download, and other digital media.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!