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Extreme La Nina

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

If you are a technical/chart-watcher type of person you might appreciate this graph and the following NOAA discussion. If this was about a stock or a commodity the financial players would be freaking out. A biblical rate/pace of change:

The
most recent (July-August) MEI value shows a continued drop from earlier
this year, reaching -1.81, or 0.64 sigma below last month's value, and
2.35 standard deviations below April-May, both record-fast drops for this time of year. In fact, the three-month drop set a new all-time record for any time of year, beating a 2.33 sigma drop in 1998.

 

The most recent MEI rank (2nd lowest) is clearly below the 10%-tile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings for this season. One has to go back to 1955 to find stronger La Niña conditions for this time of year in the MEI record, and back to September-October 1975 for lower MEI values at any time of year.

Conclusion: We have one heck of big La Nina that has formed very
quickly. We have not seen conditions like this in 55 years. What might
it mean for the US:

-Above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

-Below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. 

-Increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea.


BK Conclusion: If you are planning on a ski tri this winter avoid
Colorado and consider Whistler. Nice weather (drought conditions) will
continue in the NE. There is a very high risk of a major storm
developing in the Western Caribbean in the next three weeks. Hurricane
Karl was a good example. It just knocked Veracruz hard. There were winds
as high as 115mph and the storm brought 8 inches of rain in 90 minutes.
Eight deaths.

If a storm of this magnitude were to hit the northern GoM it would shut
in the oil/gas production for some time. Depending where (if) it makes
landfall there could be significant impacts.

La Nina brings warm water to the western Pacific. This will result in
big storm after big storm hitting into China/Indonesia. So far there
have been 11 typhoons to hit Asia this season. The most recent is Fanapi. It is about to make a mess of southern Taiwan. From there it is off to China.

Why is this La Nina cycle so strong? I have no clue. Nor do the people
who study global weather. There are many records being reached this
year. The most significant (to me) is the rapid increase in global ocean
temperatures that have occurred. The strength of this ENSO cycle is no
doubt related to that phenomenon. This powerful La Nina will continue
for at least four more months. It is likely that it will end as quickly
as it appeared. That transition will bring us violent storms. I would
delay plans for a holiday to coastal China until next year.

 

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Mon, 09/20/2010 - 23:14 | 593920 Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

Bruce--I enjoy your posts and it seems we share an interest in weather. A local UW-Seattle meteorology prof has an informative weather-related blog that addresses la nina--since it affects us markedly here in the PNW.

Here is a link to a post describing some of the "Above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.":

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/09/northwest-monsoon.html

If you seach la nina, you will find other references to that phenomenon on his blog.

I suspect you are spot on with your prediction of good snow in the PNW this winter. The anticipation is palpable...

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 12:31 | 592243 lexalexander
lexalexander's picture

Irrespective of global warming or lack thereof, La Nina tends to correlate pretty closely with drought conditions in the southeastern United States. And as earnyermoney observed above, things are, indeed, getting brown and crunchy here in North Carolina.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 02:03 | 591462 AUD
AUD's picture

Well, here in SE Australia we've had an average winter, some real cold days & nights but the snow came late & is leaving about on time.

Rainfall is a little above average where I am.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 23:28 | 591378 wagefreedom
wagefreedom's picture

Data point for you Bruce from Bali--been here for almost 10 years and neeeever seen so much rain through the 'dry' season. Sprinkles by now wouldn't be unusual but it's like the middle of January/rainy season the last week or so. Never really had a dry season this year.

Thanks for your articles Bruce, on a site with excellent reads you stand out.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 22:32 | 591322 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

luv the bruce.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 21:13 | 591248 Failure to Comm...
Failure to Communicate's picture
More False Global Warming Alarmism: The Gulf Stream Is Going To Stop

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/27607

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 22:29 | 591321 chopper read
chopper read's picture

my anxiety ebbs and flows with each passing post.  thanks for sharing, captain.  ...one less thing to worry about.  

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 21:13 | 591247 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

Last year in Iowa , corn was in the field till November and some was left to be cut until spring. Now it's being harvested already. Uncle carl the farmer says every years different.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:39 | 591181 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

weather bugs.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 19:46 | 591119 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

How would this weather phenomena affect the prices of various commodities or is any effect negligible? This is a fininacial site, right? Not political. Save that for your stupid tea parties or pathetic war protests.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:05 | 591138 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Why don't you go get a less pathetic life?

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 18:14 | 591001 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

I hope this isn't too long for everyone. Its the seasonal forecast from Joe Bastardi of Accuweather.

JOE BASTARDI WINTER 2010-11
Meteorologist expects monster La Nina - Drastic cooling

Southern Hemisphere sea ice now approaching record high levels

25 Aug 10 - Although Northern Hemisphere LAND MASSES had their hottest May-July on record, says meteorologist Joe Bastardi, the globe as a whole did not.

The warmth ON LAND is a by-product of the years of warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino, says Bastardi. The land kept warming after the water began to cool. It's "sort of like high tide in back bay occurring after it had occurred on the beach (oceans) and the tide is about to go out."

"If one uses common sense, one would understand that land masses with warm water next to them for years would warm greatly," says Bastardi.

Southern Hemisphere sea ice now approaching record high levels

However, "the expansion of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice, now approaching record high levels, ought to tell you something about the oceans immediately around the sea ice," says Bastardi. This large mass of water is cooling and has cooled most dramatically in the area where it is warmest (the tropical pacific).

"We see drastic cooling over land and IN THE ATLANTIC TOO. In fact, it basically keeps cooling the tropical Pacific into next year, then hammers away at the two areas warmest now - the Atlantic and the continents.

Monster La Nina

In the next nine months Bastardi expects we will "see a monster of a La Nina, reminiscent of the 1950s." Over the coming decades, he expects "to see the Earth's temps retreat back to where they were in the late 1970s.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:36 | 590965 yabyum
yabyum's picture

This is not good news, as I'am long season passes (UTAH). Going to go to home despot in the am to buy the rain barrels to H20 the garden and trees. The first cut back in a drought is lawn and garden watering. Let the lawn die! The tomatoes are what make life worth living.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:15 | 590939 McDeux
McDeux's picture

Weather has been not quite right this year for Atlanta. Wonder if anyone is seeing the same thing?

 

Watching Fox Atlanta nearly a week ago they mentioned thru the first 13 days of September we have been over 90 degrees, which is more days in a row than the last 10 Septembers had in total. Its now nearly a week later and still in the 90s daily, and according to most forecasts looks like we will bring in the official Fall season in the 90's.

 

We are living up to our name 'hotlanta'

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:12 | 590934 Djirk
Djirk's picture

surfs up bitchez

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:30 | 590898 Steroid
Steroid's picture

So this is ENSO index and MEI according to their creators:

"El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). These observations have been collected and published in COADS for many years. The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,..., Nov/Dec). After spatially filtering the individual fields into clusters (Wolter, 1987), the MEI is calculated as the first unrotated Principal Component (PC) of all six observed fields combined. This is accomplished by normalizing the total variance of each field first, and then performing the extraction of the first PC on the co-variance matrix of the combined fields (Wolter and Timlin, 1993). In order to keep the MEI comparable, all seasonal values are standardized with respect to each season and to the 1950-93 reference period. The MEI is extended during the first week of the following month based on near-real time marine ship and buoy observations (courtesy of Diane Stokes at NCEP) summarized into COADS-compatible 2-degree monthly statistics at NOAA-ESRL PSD. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the MEI on a month-to-month basis, since the input data for updates are not as reliable as COADS, and the MEI has been developed mainly for research purposes. Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño). "

How do you compare/match temperature and cloudiness of their totally orthogonal parameters etc, and draw a one dimensional time scale. This is witchcraft. Even if you consider it valid, the rate of change what really should count. And that is not unprecedented. In fact, there were at least four bigger changes so far. 

We have enough to be scared of. You don't need to create virtual ones!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:14 | 590879 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Growing food on the oregon coast is challenging. Rains 5 out of 7 days on average. Not enuf sun to pull the food out of the ground.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 15:19 | 590831 darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

Western Prairies have had the worst summer ( actually a non-event ) since late 80`s at least. Already had first frosts and light snows. Today another cold wet day----check the maps for how extensive the pattern is. Last week on a road trip, I didnt see a single harvester in the fields, and some of the crops are still greenish. Days of dry weather are needed even to start---and here we are second half of September. 

I read markets were counting on the Canadian grain harvest to keep prices steady. My impression is it will come in as a disaster. Long soft commodities I think.

 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:58 | 590808 Irish Virus
Irish Virus's picture

Seldom mentioned, but there will be winners in the event of global warming.  Canada has the most to gain-- a longer growing season and wheat fields extending another 100 miles northward.  This is really nothing new.  The Vikings were growing crops in Greenland until the onset of an extended period of cold, which explains the mass exodus to New Foundland.  Economics and climatology are both inexact sciences as you get "experts" whose views tend to be diametrically opposed to each other.  Clearly, elevated carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere merit close attention.  I know Al Gore worries about this during his massage  sessions.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 21:58 | 591296 maddy10
maddy10's picture

I used to wonder why it was called "green"land in the firstplace

Ah they must have had anthropo something back then too

well, what do I know??NO Phd here.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 15:02 | 590814 Bob
Bob's picture

On the other hand, it could be a sudden ice age plowing down from the north:

http://projectworldawareness.com/2010/09/life-on-this-earth-just-changed-the-north-atlantic-current-is-gone/

(link from comment above)

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:44 | 590787 lindaamick
lindaamick's picture

Could be some geoengineering weather control experimentation is contributing  to the extreme weather situations we are witnessing globally.  (Spraying chemicals into the Ionisphere or tampering with the electronic fields in the Ionisphere.) 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:01 | 591134 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

linda-a-mick - HAARP.  [^Harp as in Mick]

They microwave a section of the ionosphere, causing it to warp and rise.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ze5hwDGvc0

http://www.google.co.th/search?q=haarp+weather+control&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8...

Heaven help us all.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:01 | 590740 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Not global warming buy a long shot, simply global climate cycles , been going on for millenia . In 1955 my state , Michigan , had many strong tornadoes ( parents took 35mm slides of damage in our area the year I was born . Tornadoes warnings and days off from school were commonplace till 1963 , remember many hours in the basement and the sicj yellow-green skies . That cycle ended , and never returned with such force since .... maybe again this year ? Who knows ? China beach ? I'm not that loaded sorry , we'll deal with the weather we get in Michigan . Buy grain commodities if you think SE will get a drought . Also sugar futures or IPSU . Put money where the weather is !! 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 15:03 | 590818 SwapThis
SwapThis's picture

Thanks for adding a thoughtful comment to this string.  It amazes me that even though the banksters idiocy may be obvious to more and more folks, including many keen wits here at ZH, many here to easily get sucked into the lunacy of Anthropomorphic Global Warming, now being renamed by the cultural mime creators as Global Climate Disruption.  We go through cycles and most people don't live long enough to experience them so the crap for scaremongering hype that we have heard from the Gore-ista's probably fools a lot of otherwise well meaning people, but I would encourage all here that have not done so to PLEASE do yourself a favor and check into things a bit deeper than a 2hr propogandamentory on the subject. 

Where I come from in the Pac NW, the Columbia River used to freeze over solid often in winter.  My grandfather used to race model A's on the river where the current I-5 bridge is between Portland and Vancouver WA when he was stationed at Ft Vancouver.  I lived in Vancouver for 35 years and it didnt get any worse that a few small ice chunks you could spot when we had bad freezes up the Columbia gorge. 

Thanks to a lot of good people out there on the web, you can get a lot of alternative scientific detail on why AGW is rediculous and just a ruse for a carbon tax that they will try to stick us with now, not because the earth is warmer or cooler, more calm or more stormy, but because they need to steal more of our hard earned cash to fund their globalist adgenda.  Start with the Club of Rome documentation back from the 70's where they make clear they can use globally promulgated climate scares to achieve their goals and just start asking 'qui bono' and you'll be able to see pretty clearly what is going on in the deranged minds of people like John Holdren, our Science Tzar who made clear 30 years ago what he thinks should be done to the populations of the world that judged by him and his type of egomaniacal technocrat that believe's they know best for the rest of the sheep.

Read Up, Wake Up, Stand Up, Speak Up or you'll be too late to stop these crazies until your back to candle light and carriages.

 

 

 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:49 | 590721 VWbug
VWbug's picture

Beware the super volcano under Yellowstone

i keep telling the doomsters like GW to stop messing with GOM tsunamis and all that nonsense and start hyping this as a possible disaster, but GW ignores me.

Why, i ask myself, would someone hype all kinds of silly disaster scenarios and ignore the ones with at least some possible basis in fact?

I can only guess it's 'cause you can't blame a volcano or earthquake on the jews or capitalism. (although i'm sure some have tried)

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:10 | 590875 merehuman
merehuman's picture

i junked VWBUG . For being an asshole

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 15:03 | 590816 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

I can only guess it's 'cause you can't blame a volcano or earthquake on the jews or capitalism. (although i'm sure some have tried)

I think you can blame the Jews for anything. After all, millions of people believe the Jews killed God.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 22:59 | 591346 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Some people even believe that the Jews killed the Son of God.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:03 | 590870 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

wtf

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:37 | 590777 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I hear ya, bugster. I'm still waiting for Katla to wipe out GB.  Could'nt happen to nicer group of blackguards.  I find nature tends to disappoint when waiting for the fun stuff.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:53 | 590669 ConfederateH
Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:22 | 590634 tom
tom's picture

I just hope it lasts and gives the reefs more time to recover. A lot of them were laid waste by the last big El Nino, especially in the Caribbean. Still looked like a forest after a fire last time I dove them in early 2009.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:51 | 590664 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We recieved a feeder band of rain from Katrina for about a half hour and the same from Rita and we are at the time quite some distance away from the eye. Gustav showed us where floods will happen when enough water is placed over a certain time. We were fortunate.

Yellowstone is another consideration.

But we dont live in fear. I have been raised around hurricanes on the east coast and the GOM hurricanes dont bother me except that I need to know if the NOAA forcasts wind speeds exceeding 75 mph for one minue or more because that was how my home was built.

I have made extensive plans and executed quite a few of these plans. I remember when 4 of 5 pipelines were shut off due to GOM storms recently to Arkansas and Gasoline became rather dear. We had a small supply on hand for a few weeks and that helped alot. We are painfully aware that living in a world that requires gasoline to get around instead of Horse and Buggy (As the Amish does for example) is a not a very solid way of living.

Nature is a powerful force, you can accomodate it, learn your limits and make ready for events beyond those limits. We had a flood last year that actually cut a railroad line in two and wiped out houses built below the railroad's own line. Our home is at least 20 feet above that flood level and elevated a further 3 feet. If something was to happen and totally flood our area, hopefully the NOAA will continue to provide hydro water forcasting that is accurate enough in a timely manner to make a decision to stay or go.

 

Several other towns to our east were totally cut off by flooding for weeks. Only way in or out was by boat or plane/helicopter. Something to consider.

I have seen flash flooding in NW texas where you had storms to the north and the cross streets north and south all became raging rapids 4 feet deep capable of shoving your loaded 18 wheeler off the main east/west road completely.

It is better to live on top of a hill than to live down low I say.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:41 | 590716 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Now that I've deleted the earthquake rider on my home owner's policy we'll have some activity at the New Madrid Fault...

http://www.scchealth.org/docs/ems/docs/prepare/newmadrid.html

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 18:03 | 590972 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Liquefaction is a bitch on the new madrid:

http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm

Entire towns disappeared in 1812..Sleep tight RR!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:20 | 590631 gnomon
gnomon's picture

Extreme La Ninas have typically been associated with difficult seeding conditions for winter wheat in the Southern Plains of the United States.  And right now wheat seeding in a large area of the Southern Plains has been delayed by a week or more.  If a general rain does not arrive fairly soon, the yields for next Summer's harvest will progressively decline the longer the dry weather continues.

Food inflation could be the trigger that sets us irrevocably on the road to hyperinflation, much as Mr. Lira has recently illustrated in his latest posting.  It won't take much, especially with all of the fund money pumping things up with each hint of a possible future shortage.

 

 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:07 | 590612 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

As a citizen of Cascadia, my thanks for the enhanced warning Bruce. I knew it was going to be a wet winter here, but this makes me think we should lay in extra cooking kerosene and some gas for the generator.

When it storms around here, the power system owned by the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan usually goes out for a few days in selected areas. Our area is one of those selected, probably because it's not as populous here as the nearby bigger cities.

We had a crappy summer, so a lousy winter should make up for it.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 15:59 | 590865 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Hey Doc

OTPP buys lots of stuff to park their money.  They bought it as is where is from the people who built it.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 22:58 | 593897 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

OTPP buys lots of stuff to park their money.  They bought it as is where is from the people who built it.

After the last big storm-induced power outrage that lasted several days, I took a look at the culprit. A massive steel tower had come down on the transmission lines into town. They replaced it... with a wooden pole. Now there's a transmission corridor on the edge of town with a big row of steel towers and one wooden tower. And that makes me feel really good about the power company's new owners.

Of course, I'm also cranky about the fact that our electric rates are about half again higher than the adjoining county which has a public utility district. Yeah, they have much more rural land to service, and since they're closer to the coast, they get a lot more storm damage, but somehow they manage to keep their rates a lot lower than ours.

So I only hope that a lot of Ontario teachers are staying warm this winter on the surplus they're skimming out of us in this neck of the woods.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:07 | 590611 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

We didn't listen!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:08 | 590610 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Your interest in meteorology is interesting.  One would think that the elements of meteorological study would be the same as those in economics.  Just as unpredictable, yet just as deadly.  And, it's a much discussed topic (everybody talks about the weather) by those with the least knowledge.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 23:52 | 591398 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Excellent observations. You usually are a very good read-as this time shows.     Milestones

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:25 | 591158 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

It's not the heat, it's the stupidity...

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:24 | 590702 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Rocky:

No agenda, here, just wanted to take a second and tell you that you are one of my favorite posters of this site. Cool-headed and fair, you are always a welcome sight to me during any discussion.  Always nice to see the li'l gray fella.

 

Mtomato2

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:38 | 590712 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hi, mater-man (or lady as the case may be).  You might be surprised (or not) to learn that I have never participated in an ongoing website discussion or blog site.  This has been my first.  I've read some other sites as a dispassionate observer but the topics on ZH, for the most part, are worth discussion.  I just get sad when some racist or tin-foil hatter gets a foothold on a discussion.  Trolls I don't mind so much -- kinda like TV, you can just change the channel. Carry on!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:15 | 590690 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

"Nice depression we're having."  It's a real conversation stopper at all places unweb.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:04 | 590872 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Miss  Expectations, i too make people aware during the course of daily life. I promised to myself to alert each person i meet. Having done so for months i now am getting a different response. Months ago i would encounter a blank stare or anger now folks are more aware and its noticeable.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:01 | 590604 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Twisters in Brooklyn and Queens. Nothing peculiar about that. 

Global warming? What's that?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!