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Extreme La Nina

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

If you are a technical/chart-watcher type of person you might appreciate this graph and the following NOAA discussion. If this was about a stock or a commodity the financial players would be freaking out. A biblical rate/pace of change:

The
most recent (July-August) MEI value shows a continued drop from earlier
this year, reaching -1.81, or 0.64 sigma below last month's value, and
2.35 standard deviations below April-May, both record-fast drops for this time of year. In fact, the three-month drop set a new all-time record for any time of year, beating a 2.33 sigma drop in 1998.

 

The most recent MEI rank (2nd lowest) is clearly below the 10%-tile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings for this season. One has to go back to 1955 to find stronger La Niña conditions for this time of year in the MEI record, and back to September-October 1975 for lower MEI values at any time of year.

Conclusion: We have one heck of big La Nina that has formed very
quickly. We have not seen conditions like this in 55 years. What might
it mean for the US:

-Above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

-Below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. 

-Increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea.


BK Conclusion: If you are planning on a ski tri this winter avoid
Colorado and consider Whistler. Nice weather (drought conditions) will
continue in the NE. There is a very high risk of a major storm
developing in the Western Caribbean in the next three weeks. Hurricane
Karl was a good example. It just knocked Veracruz hard. There were winds
as high as 115mph and the storm brought 8 inches of rain in 90 minutes.
Eight deaths.

If a storm of this magnitude were to hit the northern GoM it would shut
in the oil/gas production for some time. Depending where (if) it makes
landfall there could be significant impacts.

La Nina brings warm water to the western Pacific. This will result in
big storm after big storm hitting into China/Indonesia. So far there
have been 11 typhoons to hit Asia this season. The most recent is Fanapi. It is about to make a mess of southern Taiwan. From there it is off to China.

Why is this La Nina cycle so strong? I have no clue. Nor do the people
who study global weather. There are many records being reached this
year. The most significant (to me) is the rapid increase in global ocean
temperatures that have occurred. The strength of this ENSO cycle is no
doubt related to that phenomenon. This powerful La Nina will continue
for at least four more months. It is likely that it will end as quickly
as it appeared. That transition will bring us violent storms. I would
delay plans for a holiday to coastal China until next year.

 

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Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:54 | 590596 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Best be wearing a hat then.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:59 | 590768 Bob
Bob's picture

Hey, how come I haven't heard this in the MSM?

Oh, yeah, I don't read, watch or listen to it.  Nonetheless, is this shit for real?  According to my longer term education via the discovery and history channels, loss of the "conveyer belt" would screw the entire planet! 

Jeez, they're blaming BP, too--is this a leftwing greenie scam?

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 19:55 | 591128 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

I think it mostly warms the waters of the UK and Scandinavia. Not sure what happens when it stops but it could make things a bit chillier up there, of course the long term effects????

Not sure how to decifer all of this but it seems significant, not sure how soon the changes will be noticed... I think the hat comment is a good place to start though.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:43 | 590587 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Things are getting brown and crunchy in NC.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 12:49 | 590667 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Driving past cornfields is almost enough to bring one to tears.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 13:32 | 590710 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

It only brings tears to my eyes when I realize that 90% of those fields are RoundUp Ready Corn, and that I've been consuming glyphosate daily since the early 90's.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:33 | 590776 Robslob
Robslob's picture

The movie Food Inc. will scare your appetite away and make you hate the 4 remaining food manufacturers left in the world...now that is POWER!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:27 | 590771 cossack55
cossack55's picture

+ 1001

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:41 | 590585 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

There seems to be high solar activity this year.  The sun heats the earth 20 degrees F every day so I consider it to be the biggest factor to watch www.telegraph.co.uk/.../Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will- cause-devastation.html


Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:53 | 590595 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture


 

Better link.

http://www.almanac.com/sunspotupdate

In late 2009, we started to see some sunspot activity and signs of the awakening Solar Cycle 24, after an unusually long quiet phase.

In June, 2010, NASA stated that "the Sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and the next few years could bring much higher levels of solar activity."

Here is more detail:

Though recent activity has been intense, Solar Cycle 24 is predicted to have a lower number of sunspots than average. Stay tuned for solar activity updates!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:31 | 590774 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I check www.spaceweather.com and www.usgs.gov every morning b4 ZH to ensure I have time to finish the articles and make smart-assed comments b4 the solar flares/earthquakes take me out.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:39 | 590582 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

The big question is how this affects food production in the US and Asia.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:38 | 590967 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

We already know, don't we?

Fires and drought have destroyed the russian wheat crop.

Drought has also done major damage to the US corn crop.

 

Meanwhile, the pigs in the south are all eating fish

which has been fattened on corexit.

 

Good thing we all stockpiled last year, huh ....

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:36 | 590579 Carl Marks
Carl Marks's picture

Beware the super volcano under Yellowstone.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:58 | 590598 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

12/21/12?

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:26 | 590762 cossack55
cossack55's picture

"Go tell the Mayans".

                   Simonides de Soto

 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 11:40 | 590584 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...I see you're still feeling the effects of Saturday night.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 14:42 | 590693 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Why is this La Nina cycle so strong? I have no clue. Nor do the people who study global weather. There are many records being reached this year. The most significant (to me) is the rapid increase in global ocean temperatures that have occurred.

Move on folks, there's nothing to see here. Under no circumstance should this be construed as a scientific 'proof' for global warming. It's a statistical outlier no doubt - can you prove that it's not an outlier? Thought so ...

And it's not like we have anything to lose by ignoring it - we may irreversibly ruin this planet but we can always move on to the next one!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 18:34 | 591027 janchup
janchup's picture

Forget global warming Mr. Critical, ocean temperatures are rising dramatically. Some people think the upcoming ski season will be great in BC.

 

 

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:51 | 591210 Babalooee
Babalooee's picture

ski season will be great or shit or somewhere in between....like every year. The key to seeing long faces in Whistler is taking note of those who have to plan their trips long in advance. Of course seeing those faces through the fog and rain can be a trick.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 19:29 | 591094 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Seriously, it's not out of question that the upcoming season will be great. (And Greenlanders certainly are not complaining about the good weather either!)

One visible feature of global warming isn't just the higher average temperature (which is really small and creeping up only very slowly and noisily) - but more volatility in weather patterns.

The area where I live had record levels of precipitation and record swings of temperature (both absolute, 150-year all-time highs and lows) this year.

It's a bit like how the stock market moves due to HFT :-)

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:17 | 590941 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Nothing to see unless you live in Colorado's ski areas ... where there's been less than 1/100th" precip in over a month and stream flows are dipping below normal again. Skiers are the secondary economy up here, snow resources are the primary economy. Oh, and it's good to have year 'round water, too.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:04 | 591137 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

wasn't it abnormally wet in july and august in western Co.

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:37 | 590966 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

It's a liberal conspiracy I'm sure. The only question is, how do they do it? Ok, the rain is easy: they are rocketing dispersants into the stratosphere during night-time. But the stream flows are tough. Vast underground water storage caves built by the government secretly, via a secret presidential executive order issued by Obama perhaps?

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 18:49 | 591047 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Johnny's back!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:44 | 591188 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

yep

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 16:26 | 590891 DukkButt
DukkButt's picture

So does that also "prove" that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) actually started back in 1955 when the last spike this big happened? Or is it just remotely possible that the global climate has long term ups and downs, including sharp spikes, that long pre-date the very existance of humans and their activity? AGW is just another government sponsored "religion" (like Keynesian Economics) that gives them an excuse to collect more taxes and put more controls on our lives. Also, I'm sure it is just a coincidence that Al Gore has made millions off of his "green" investments that profit from AGW histeria.

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 06:47 | 591549 chrisina
chrisina's picture

AGW is just another government sponsored "religion" (like Keynesian Economics) that gives them an excuse to collect more taxes and put more controls on our lives. Also, I'm sure it is just a coincidence that Al Gore has made millions off of his "green" investments that profit from AGW histeria.

Denial of AGW is a fossil fuel industry sponsored "religion" that gives them an excuse to collect always more money and put more controls on our lives. Also, I'm sure it is just a coincidence that the fossil fuel industry have made trillions off of their "fossil fuel" investments that profit from denial of AGW histeria.

See how easy it is : rationalization can turn ANYTHING into a conspiracy. One will always find vested interests that defend or ridicule any given conspiracy. One will always find websites and videos that defend or ridicule any given conspiracy to which will congregate people who are biased to either side of a conspiracy.

Conclusion : we are fucked, no matter what.


Sun, 09/19/2010 - 17:19 | 590944 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Or is it just remotely possible that the global climate has long term ups and downs, including sharp spikes, that long pre-date the very existance of humans and their activity?

Yes, it's certainly a theoretical possibility. Based on the data a very low probability one - if it was a stock i'd certainly not go short against global warming ...

Also, you seem to jump from the 'theoretical possibility' of human-induced global warming not existing to 100% certainty:

AGW is just another government sponsored "religion" (like Keynesian Economics) that gives them an excuse to collect more taxes and put more controls on our lives.

What if you are wrong and global warming is real?

Try again with our next planet? Let that smoldering rock of a once blue planet behind us?

Also, does it really matter whether humans are causing it or not? We humans certainly have the capability to undo the effect. Can we sort out who's to blame after we've saved the planet, hm?

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 21:57 | 591292 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Given the phrase in the uppper right hand corner, sounds like you are lost. Please read it an commit it to memory.

The only approach to this neurosis du jour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eScDfYzMEEw

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 08:18 | 591599 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Given the phrase in the uppper right hand corner, sounds like you are lost. Please read it an commit it to memory.

Ok, fair enough - so please help me out with specifics: does your reply mean that you are disputing every single claim that I made in that posting? Do you dispute my claim that global warming is a high-probability event? Do you dispute my claim that humans have the power to do something about it? Do you dispute my claim that simply doing nothing on the off chance that global warming might go away from itself is dumb at best, suicidal at worst?

It would be most helpful to conducting a rational discussion if you too outlined your opinion.

Thanks!

Sun, 09/19/2010 - 20:03 | 591136 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

"Try again with our next planet? Let that smoldering rock of a once blue planet behind us?"

 

This planet will be around long after we are gone.  Why do the AGW crowd keep trying to scare us into believing the world is going to end.  

Be at peace.  You will die one way or another and the world will live long afetr you are gone. 

 

Mon, 09/20/2010 - 04:30 | 591510 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

"Try again with our next planet? Let that smoldering rock of a once blue planet behind us?"

 

This planet will be around long after we are gone.  Why do the AGW crowd keep trying to scare us into believing the world is going to end. 

Nobody is trying to scare you - we are trying to tell you the facts. The photos you can see above, showing human suffering, are real.

I for one don't want to tell my children: "Here is a largely ruined planet. Here are billions of people suffering. We could have done something about it in time but didn't, because there was always the (increasingly dwinding) chance of us being wrong about it. Tough luck, and it's your problem now. Now let me rest in peace."

It consider it simply irresponsible and unchristian.

Be at peace.  You will die one way or another and the world will live long afetr you are gone.

The thing is, when there is a hurricane warning you better board up and move into shelter - and not face the storm in a suicidal manner, in the name of "peace".

Think of global warming as a highly sophisticated Cat5 hurricane warning. You can ignore it and you can hold a storm party - maybe the predictions are wrong and maybe the eye of storm will miss us after all.

YMMV.

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