Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets
In its first bond auction since announcing its budget deficit was set to double in 2010 (talking a massive $20 billion here, nothing as puny as $9 trillion over the next 10 years), the Polish government sold only half of the PLN2 billion of the 5.75% bonds due 2011 it was hoping to offload to investors to plug the hole. It appears, unlike Tim Geithner, Polish Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski does not have Wen Jiabao on speed dial. Then again, after they have taken over America, who knows where Chinese interests will look next: that Bison grass vodka sure is a strategic asset.
Subsequent to the auction, BNP had some less than encouraging words for holders of Polish bonds:
“This is a direct consequence of a very dangerous fiscal
outlook presented in the 2010 budget draft. We recommend selling Polish bonds
across the curve.”
This merely reinforces Zero Hedge's view of the U.S. exemption from economic reality: after all, like any aggressive distressed bondholder, China is merely preparing for the inevitable debt-for-equity swap. If there are no other bidders (aside from the debtor itself of course), so much the better.
Unfortunately for Poland, it does not have a comparable exemption. The result:
The Polish zloty weakened 1.2 percent to 4.1635 per euro as
of 11:22 a.m. in Warsaw, the most since Sept. 1. Polish bonds
fell, pushing the yield on the five-year note four basis points
higher to 5.79 percent and the yield on debt maturing in October
2019 up six basis points to 6.23 percent, according to PKO Bank
Polski SA in Warsaw. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Poland is definitely not out of the woods: the country is planning on selling another PLN2 billion on September 23. Perhaps it is time for the IMF to issue another rosy report about how everything is peachy throughout its protectorate.