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Fall 2009 Big Money Poll Results Out: Only 13% Are Bearish, 70% Are Beating S&P, As Taxpayers Get Hosed
According to the latest Big Money poll results, groupthink has taken over with the herd almost completely on the bullish side of things. Currently, only 13% of respondents are bearish in their investment outlook though June 2010. Additionally the divergence on where the bulls and bears see the market in 6 months continues growing larger, with bulls expecting the S&P at almost 1,200 while bears retrenching even more from the prior poll, and reducing their S&P expectations from to 1003 to 922.
On economic matters, 72% of respondents believe the recession has ended, and an amusing 52% believe there is no chance of a double dip recession. It is scary that over half of the "sophisticiated community" thinks that Fed can succeed where so many central planning administration have failed before.
More rosy expectations: 47% of respondents see Q4 GDP growth at more than 3%, 56% do not see a bubble building in the financial markets, 53% expect the dollar to continue weakening, 76% believe that decline in corporate profits has ended, 71% see inflation is the greater threat to the market (the inverse of what Zero Hedge's recent poll disclosed), and an ironic 65% disapprove of the Obama administration's handling of the crisis so far. Why this is ironic is that the only reason why everyone is bullish is exclusively due to Obama's handling of the crisis. But these are sophisticated money managers we are talking about here. Why bother them with logic.
Some more from the groupthink wagon: 76% will be a net buyer of stocks, and 50% still think stocks will be the best-performing assets class in the next 6-12 months.
Yet the most telling response is that 70% of money managers are beating the S&P both professionally and personally, which begs the question: who is losing for more than two thirds to be winning, and the simple answer is... You - dear taxpayers, that's who.
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What do you expect from a poll where 2 people actually voted that the Fed would LOWER rates in the next 12 months?
I just liquidated EVERYTHING..this is so foching rigged and I refuse to invest in anything! CASH IS KING.
Cash is King, but USD aint cash, its worthless paper.
As long as people will give you ACTUAL stuff for the cash. Might want to take that process one step further.
Cramer says to buy the pullbacks.
Cramer is a crack head...why he has not been hauled off in straightjacket to jail is beyond me.
Best news of the day!
I wonder what percent of the respondents to that survey, in their typical conniving logic, respond in a contrarian way to slant the poll results.
Remember that statements tell you want the responder wants you to believe they believe, not what they believe.
Markets tend to do exactly what causes the most pain to the most people. We're just below SPX 50 dma. A break either way will trigger the bots. I'll let them go first and see if I like any setups.
"Markets tend to do exactly what causes the most pain to the most people."
Ding ding ding! Bingo! Which is why I love to see this. Now we know we are in a new bubble mania.
Wow! Quite the optimistic little bunch!
It's a "new" market, a "new" economy, BLAH BLAH
Until the pyramid crumbles
Think this will lure Mom and Pop, and their money, out from hiding?
If it's Bulls 70-13, bearish is finally the place to be. Sentiment, technicals and fundamentals are all lined up just right now.
Welcome to Investworld ...where Central bankers and Oligarchs are programmed to serve you for ........ (you fill in the blank)
...Where nothing can possibly go worng!
TD please correct first "Bears" to "Bulls":
"...6 months continues growing larger, with bears expecting the S&P at almost 1,200 while bears retrenching even more from the prior poll, and reducing their S&P expectations from to 1003 to 922."
From Terry Coxon published in The Casey Report that was posted here a week or two ago:
What the monetarists (or the first of them to be equipped with computers) found was that when the growth rate of the money supply rises:
• The initial effect is on the prices of bonds and stocks, an effect that comes within a few
months.
• The peak effect on the growth rate of economic activity comes about 18 to 30 months
after the pick-up in the growth rate of the money supply.
• The peak effect on the rate of consumer price inflation comes about 12 to 18 months after
that, which is to say it comes 30 to 48 months after the peak growth rate in the money
supply.
As Friedman famously put it, the lags in the effects of changes in monetary policy are "long and
variable." He might have said, "It's a big, wide blur, but we're sure we've seen it."
And even that picture exaggerates the precision that's available to us. The emergence of money
substitutes, such as NOW accounts and money market funds, has added its own muddiness to the
picture of how growth in the money supply translates into growth in the level of consumer
prices. It is only because the recent episode of monetary expansion has been so extreme that we
can look to the results just listed for an indication of what's to come.
If you apply the findings of the monetarists to the present situation, here's what you get. The
peak growth rate in the money supply occurred last December, so based on the general
monetarist schedule:
• Some of the effect on stocks and bonds should already have been felt.
• The peak effect on economic activity should come between the middle of 2010 and the
middle of 2011.
• The peak effect on consumer price inflation should come between the middle of 2011 and
the end of 2012.
I participated in market sentiment polls for years as a firm trader, and put exactly half a second of thought into my responses when the woman called every week.
Surprised Barron's makes such a big deal out of these crap surveys. And, they make it seem like cutting edge news when this stuff is available realtime in many venues.
This Barron's Big Money Poll harkens back to a day when stock newsletters went out by mail once a month.
Also, most money managers who invest OPM on a buy and hold, fully invetsed basis have little ability to forecast anything meaningful. That's not even their job. This is a crowd of people who'll tell you they did fantastically when they lost 25% of your money, if the S&P went down 30%.