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Fannie's Christmas Present - A Delayed Repo

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

I was struck by the following announcement from Fannie Mae.

Being the nice guys that they are, Fannie is giving homeowners a few
more days before they get tossed on the street. I have not seen that
the other D.C mortgage lenders have followed Fannie’s lead, but I am
sure they will. Freddie Mac, FHA, FDIC and the Federal Home Loan banks
are also “nice” guys who are also in the foreclosure business.

I agree with this decision. What’s the sense of chucking people out in
the cold over the holidays? We are supposed to be a compassionate
people with a compassionate government. I am not sure that those who
get this two-week reprieve will really be enjoying the Christmas
spirit. Waiting for the axe to fall does not fit in with the plum
pudding and presents thing.

Assume that all of the lenders followed Fannie’s lead and suspended
foreclosures from the 19th to the 3rd. That would be a pretty big deal.
The number of foreclosure has now reached a level of 11,000 per day. So
this break in the action by the lenders would defer as many as 160,000
homes from foreclosure. But that is only for two weeks. It just means
the January/February numbers will have a bulge.

The 2009 foreclosure will come in around 4mm. Up from 2.2mm in 2008. In
the period 1950-2000 the foreclosure rate averaged less than 1% of all
mortgages. In 2010 foreclosures could be 7%. There is nothing normal
about our current conditions.

It is certain that there is more bad news in front of us on this issue.
Washington has introduced the HAMP and HARP programs in the last year
to combat the tide of foreclosures. There has also been pressure by
regulators and even the White House on the private sector lenders to
avoid foreclosures. These efforts have reduced the numbers, but the
real impact is to pass the trash to a future period. We know that 60%
of restructured mortgages re-default in less than one year. There is no
second chance at this. That 60% is going to hit a wall sometime in 2010.

By any account the US is the wealthiest country in the world. We are
also the most indebted. Two years ago I would have thought it
impossible that we could come to this. A two-week moratorium on
foreclosures is the best we can do. Possibly we are not as wealthy as
we think we are.

 

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Mon, 12/21/2009 - 06:30 | 170746 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Keeping Empoyees during the holiday at work is more expensive. This is why, they just want to shut down themselfes and during normal hours, they'll kick them out.

Why do overtime during the holidays? IT's not for the people in the houses, no, it's for their own employees.

No George! You enjoy that turkey, WE'LL KICK THEM OUT NEXT WEEK!

HO HO WHOE HO HA HO HA WHOEHAHAHA!!!!!

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 02:43 | 170708 celticgold
celticgold's picture

 A pleasure JR. You are quite right about how the Yorktown defeat broke the back of english imperialism, and reverbrated around the world back then. Another major consequence of that defeat, was the fact that the brits had to find another dumping ground for the lower classes and the starving who had the temerity to steal bread and clothing ,when they no longer hung them for it.So in mid 1787, they finally packed them of to Botany Bay ,here in the east coast of Australia,which is a whole other story. You know ,thinking about it , the situation around the western world right now is looking more than a little similar to that historical one ,in many ways . Like then , Europe too as an example, has been hijacked by the same crowd ,with the people in much the same sorry position (if not worse) , having been sacrificed to greed and power by the few. i can easily imagine a domino effect of revolt against them, by the bled and battered, if something started and took hold in the USA now. It would certainly inspire everyone else in a similar position, and we could see the first World Revolution against what is undoubtably a global oppressor. If you think about the numbers involved ,we certainly have the power. That is ,after all ,what Democracy is about ,aint it?  The world is once again , looking to the people of the USA for leadership.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 05:04 | 170733 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Thanks Celtic, I'm almost proud to be a citizen again.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 00:43 | 170679 celticgold
celticgold's picture

Thats what i love about the USA, just about anywhere else in the western world,cept maybe France ,you can talk openly and freely about revolution against oppressive overlords and the authorities cant arrest you for treason...all your doin is discussin HISTORY..what can they say??. THIS is what you are famous for ,and what the rest of the world admires about you . Your whole history is freedom ,hard won from tyranny ,by force of arms,by THE PEOPLE. ....... Further, your famous Constitution warns you explicitly against future tyranny , where it will come from,and HOW ...and how you can prevent it. THIS is why the rest of the world flocked to your country,and together with Natures gifts to you , became the richest ,most powerful,most FREEDOM LOVING country in history,and the model to which most of the world aspired. Perhaps the conditions have arisen again that your founders encountered , that is , rule from afar and above , and NOT for and of, the PEOPLE. If you decide that it has come to this ,then you are they , and should do as they did, you know your history.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 01:43 | 170698 JR
JR's picture

Thank you for your powerful comments.  They brought a tingling to my spirit. In addition to the freedom secured by the American Colonists in their struggle against the British, not many historians have recorded the profound effect of the Revolutionary War on the monarchies of Europe.

Britain realized the war was lost when Cornwallis surrendered at Yorktown in October 1781. Five months later in March 1782, Lord North, the King’s puppet, resigned because of the Yorktown defeat.  And here is the implication as recorded in Goldwin Smith’s A History of England: “Yorktown ended the attempt of George III to regain political power for the crown.  Since the day of North’s resignation England has been governed by a cabinet responsible to the House of Commons.” (emphasis mine)

THIS was the turning point of the British Empire—five months after Yorktown!  Prior to this, the King ruled England. The British monarchy would never again be the absolute ruler of the empire.

And across the channel, on January 21, 1793, one of the most all-encompassing monarchies of Europe fell to the French Guillotine.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 16:17 | 170509 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Do they mean Official government-recognized holidays or religious ones?

if they mean State holidays, then is it ok to get an eviction notice during the Labor Day week? Or 4th of July?
and if it's due to religious holidays, is it ok to get evicted on Ramadan? How about Yom Kippur?
how about getting evicted during the Chinese New Year?

if you can close on a house between Dec 19 and Jan 2 - you should be able to deal with a foreclosure/eviction letter as well.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 23:06 | 170232 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Excellent piece...summarizes so well what has happened and what we are...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/20/opinion/20rich.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 21:45 | 170209 Molon Labe
Molon Labe's picture

I hope we do see a tax revolt.  Does anyone know the overall taxation rate that caused our forefathers to tar and feather the agents of the crown?  Was it 2%?  4%

We are like frogs being boiled in a pot.  Take federal, state and local taxes and add in the hidden tax caused by Fed induced inflation...the cumulative effect of this is crushing.

The temperature keeps rising and most people are doing the back stroke.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 14:54 | 170462 ATG
ATG's picture

Intolerable Acts ranged from 1% to 3%.

When Britain dropped Stamp and Townsend Taxes

John Hancock's smuggling sloop Liberty was impounded

and JH paid Sam Adams, Ben Franklin and the

boys to start an unpolular revolution...

 

 

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 16:51 | 170531 JR
JR's picture

Now that’s what you call “new” history.

The truth is that Samuel Adams dragged his younger cousin, John Adams, and fellow Sons of Liberty member John Hancock into the fray. It was Sam Adams alone who was the constant agitator dragging the others eventually into the “traitorous actions” against the Crown.

It was this original member of the Sons of Liberty, which included leaders such as Paul Revere., who said: “If our trade be taxed, why not our lands, or produce, in short, everything we possess? They tax us without having legal representation.”

It wasn’t Hancock who drew up a circular letter to send to all of the other colonists charging the British actions in Boston as “the violation of the liberties of all.” It was Sam Adams.

Yes, John Hancock was on Griffin’s Wharf along with Sam and Revere and Dr. Warren but it is quite an exercise in “new” history to put the fancy-dressed John within the instigation nucleus of the Revolutionary War.

As for smuggling, without "smuggling" Boston was facing mass starvation under British maritime law imposed on the colonies. Of course, smuggling is in the eyes of the beholder. Hancock used his ship, the Liberty, in defiance to bring in British-taxed goods such as imported tea. His ship was impounded in Boston Harbor by British customs workers and Hancock was accused of illegally smuggling goods. A large mob of Bostonians broke into the customs post…and the rest is old history—the preface to the Boston Tea Party…

I ask, would young Colonel George Washington of the Virginia Militia be classified as a “smuggler” when, in addressing the House of Burgesses, said: “If need be I will raise one thousand men, subsist them at my own expense, and march myself at their head to the relief of Boston”? Ah, yes. Washington, the Smuggler.

By the way, is this John Hancock that you say dragged us into this unfortunate war with our British pals the same John Hancock insurance guy who’s dragging us into Obama healthcare?

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 02:20 | 170275 Objective Soul
Objective Soul's picture

 @ Molon Labe

Add in the British crowns  tactic of flooding the colonies with cheap foreign goods as a way to destroy the local industry and thus the economy.

We now call this Globalization, global economic arbitrage, Geopolitics. 

It is used against every nation and it effects the j6p of each nation.

The Establishment benefits from it's control of government thus laws.

They benifit from skimming off the collective pool of human biomass and stifiling the bargining power of individuals who choose to pool together as a means to live better and to have more leverage in policy making decisions.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 13:34 | 170418 JR
JR's picture

Are you, I hope, to be our Thomas Paine?  America’s strength in individual freedom has been swamped by an international banking mafia. Individual free enterprise needs to be restored.

It is relatively easy for a collective group to pit itself against the individual and win.  And that is exactly what has happened in America, to “this republic if you can keep it” cum a banking cartel oligarchy.

America’s economic miracle grew from the soil of individualism—taking root on the primary importance of the individual, on self-reliance and personal independence. America’s government was rooted in “freedom from government regulation in the pursuit of a person's economic goals, from a doctrine holding that the interests of the individual should take precedence over the interests of the state.”

Seemingly invulnerable, America’s individualism was also her Achilles heel. At the peak of her power, an international banking cartel coming from the Rothschild nucleus moved to her shores, pitting its prowess against the lone individual, picking each off one by one financially, until, finally, today it rules and impoverishes the nation through government control and edict.

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 03:07 | 170711 Objective Soul
Objective Soul's picture

JR thank you sir for the compliment. Were that I could fill such boots.

If that I could put into letter and word what I know to be truths.

I regret often, that while attending school, I had taken up English with little enthusiasm. My sentences oft-times do not convey all that I wish to say.

My gift is in voice, which whilst in the company of my peers, I use to plead my case.

It is encouraging to see that I am not alone in this village. It will take many voices to bring about just and reasoned change.

 

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 17:58 | 171169 JR
JR's picture

Considering these words, you must have one heck of a voice!  Methinks you already wear the boots!  Our case begins!

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 14:44 | 170454 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'm going to email all my Tea Party contacts to see what we can get going.  My brother went to his first Tea Party not long ago.  It featured Joe "You Lie!" Wilson.  Apparently a good time was had by all.

I still cannot think of anyone other than bankers and .gov who has benefited from all of this.  Anyone else?

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 00:10 | 170249 JR
JR's picture

Taxman
Let me tell you how it will be,
There’s one for you, nineteen for me,
‘Cause I’m the Taxman
If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street,
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat,
If you get too cold, I’ll tax the heat,
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet.


Taxman!

'Cause I'm the taxman.
Yeah, I'm the taxman.

The Beatles

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 05:17 | 170737 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Don't forget to declare the pennies on your eyes.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 21:40 | 170203 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Well, this particular blog cements in place my decision to default on 600K in mtgs (400K to Chase and 200K to BAC).

I used to net 500K in the "bubble" for 3.5 yrs running before I put 50% down on an 800K purchase. Then it all dried up and the 200K HELOC was obtained to tide me over the downturn (except there doesn't appear to be any "turn").

I used to work 80 hrs a week (and enjoy it), employ 45 people and could still lead a much larger organization. If an innovator/entrepreneur like me is toast we are certainly all F'ed (but Y'all knew that already).

I can't even get change of a dollar in Huntington, NY (upper middle class) without some stranger crying to me about their lost job (which was the case today, and two days ago).

400K in equity up in smoke (just like that).

Mon, 12/21/2009 - 01:06 | 170684 JR
JR's picture

I hear you, Anonymous.

The sad part is while the main perpetrators of this crisis go free, and Goldman Sachs sets aside a record $16.7 billion in the first nine months of the year for employee bonuses (cancelled they say, and I say until Jan. 1), you and other hardworking entrepreneurs have been targeted to suffer in silence the consequences of their crimes. You are never mentioned in government or media except collectively as “taxpayers” who are obligated to bail out the bankers, and berated frequently by government economists for your "high living" in chicken-wire-and-stucco McMansions.

Small businesses are falling like dominoes.  Shop after shop in this coastal area where I live have been vacated, some just before Christmas. Normally hard-to-find parking spaces remain empty along downtown streets and ocean beaches.  And as Robert Frank wrote Friday in the WSJ, “The sub-prime crisis has turned into the super-prime crisis. Payments on about 12% of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more overdue in September…and well over the 7.4% default rate for U.S. mortgages as a whole." There are 114,000 home loans of more than $1 million.

A Miami real estate agent was quoted as saying, “The rich aren’t as rich as they used to be. People have reached the point where they can’t afford the carrying expenses of a $2 million home.”

Yes, you are the “rich”: the Goldman billionaires are bankers--critical to preservation of world economic stability.  In order to make you and the middle class the patsies in this banker-made crisis and to arouse the applause of America’s Madame Defarges, the WSJ titles its article More Wealthy Default on Their Mansions  and “looks at the lives and culture of the wealthy.” That’s you.  The multi-billionaires plunderers are the revered “too big to fails,” whose ill-gotten gains Congress must restore with money taxed from your "rich" pockets.

You, of course, don’t rate an identity or mention in Congress, except of course derogatorily as the “rich” who must be punished for having earned $200,000 or so and then made taxpayer liable for Goldman’s debts under such endearing congressional terms as  Freddie and Fannie and Sally and…bailout and stimulus.

Keep your head up, my friend.  We are going to take this country back, or die trying.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 18:52 | 170115 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Why are the wealthiest? Because we have the money. Why do we have the money? Because it is all debt. Banks create new money when they 'lend', not from existing capital. Thus, we are the wealthiest and the most indebted country.

Banks do not create the money for the interest, that is generated by more new money created in lending. When new money is not being created, then there is no money to pay interest and the SHTF.

Right now, they are printing new money as loans to the government (all the people) and praying for consumers and businesses to start borrowing again so that that new money can make money available to pay as taxes that can then pay the interest on those govt loans.

If that does not happen, then the bankers have liens on the US. What is that Jefferson said about bankers controlling the money supply, then thru inflation, then deflation, capturing the property of all the people?

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 18:44 | 170111 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Bust the bastards. Don't walk away from your home! Walk away from your loan!!! Force their hand. The banks didn't put anything up in consideration to the loan. No, they offered you credit only, through ledger entry. Having convinced you that indebting yourself to them is in your best interest, they then have the audacity and power to change the condition of the loan, at whim, screwing you.

After fucking up theirs and the nations balance sheet, making up fairy tale accounting rules so as to hide fair value, bleeding the taxpayer for bonuses, buying the nations politicians and regulators, trampling the constitution, securing the judicial system firmly to the hind tit, fucking you over with inflation thereby ruining your savings, engineering stock market crashes for their gain and your loss, counterfeiting truck loads of bonds and cash, all in the pursuit of power and in Goldman's case, delusions of deity, debauching the demarkation of business and government, wiping their ass with your face, well, fuck them and fuck the horse they rode in on. Chapter 7 the turds and bury the MFs. Debtor Jubilee.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 19:49 | 170140 JR
JR's picture

The military prepares: 

OFFICIALS AND EXPERTS WARN OF CRASH-INDUCED UNREST | Washington’s Blog | December 16, 2009

Numerous high-level officials and experts warn that the economic crisis could lead to unrest world-wide - even in developed countries:

  • Today, Moody's warned that future tax rises and spending cuts could trigger social unrest in a range of countries from the developing to the developed world, that in the coming years, evidence of social unrest and public tension may become just as important signs of whether a country will be able to adapt as traditional economic metrics, that a fiscal crisis remains a possibility for a leading economy, and that 2010 would be a “tumultuous year for sovereign debt issuers”.
  • The U.S. Army War College warned in 2008 November warned in a monograph [click on Policypointers’ pdf link to see the report] titled “Known Unknowns: Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development” of crash-induced unrest:

The military must be prepared, the document warned, for a “violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States,” which could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse,” “purposeful domestic resistance,” “pervasive public health emergencies” or “loss of functioning political and legal order.” The “widespread civil violence,” the document said, “would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.” “An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a long-secure domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,” it went on. “Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD [the Department of Defense] would be, by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance,” the document read.

  • Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair

"The global economic crisis ... already looms as the most serious one in decades, if not in centuries ... Economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they are prolonged for a one- or two-year period,"

Former national security director Zbigniew Brzezinski warned "there’s going to be growing conflict between the classes and if people are unemployed and really hurting, hell, there could be even riots."

…The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned the financial crisis is the highest national security concern for the U.S., and warned that the fallout from the crisis could lead to "greater instability".

…more: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/officials-and-experts-warn-of-cra...

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 21:03 | 170188 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Omigawd, military placed on alert; threat level rising that democracy might actually occur.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 22:06 | 170636 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Democracy has already occurred, Anon, that's why we're at where we're at. It's justice and honesty in government that we want. Democracy, phiiiittttt. What a hoax. How about solving all of this with a constitutional republic? Any hint of that absurdity returning and that's when the military will really be placed on alert. 

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 21:50 | 170631 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Democracy has occurred,, anon. That's why we're at where we're at. Screw democracy. How about returning to a constitutional republic that charges the president and congress with the responsibility to uphold it, on pain of death for any treasonous deviation from it. LIBERTY!! Remember that? Restore the constitution and reinstitute individual responsibility and the LIBERTY to live it.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 18:21 | 170093 phaesed
phaesed's picture

Honestly? At least they have that much goddamn compassion....

And think of it this way, the evicted should move to detroit and buy a new home for what they pay in monthly rent. (yes, 2 bedroom homes are selling for $1,000). Either way, they won't have a job, but at least this way, they don't have to worry about rent.... oh wait, unemployment benefits don't transfer. tsktsk.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 14:46 | 170456 ATG
ATG's picture

That's it - we'll get Rangle right on it

to make Unemployment transferable to

Detroit, Bimini and Nicaragua...

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 17:50 | 170069 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

why do we keep saying we are the wealthiest country when our assets are measured by the debt we have.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 17:21 | 170051 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Fannie Mae announced today that, due to unprecedented, tsunami levels of foreclosures and an unexpected soaring of beleaguered staff requests for "some time off between Christmas and New Years," it is using the holidays as an excuse, any excuse, to delay and slow down the Administration's newest "surge", that of the tide of foreclosures coming to a neighborhood near you, while claiming to be winning the war of hearts and minds over the hapless homeowners being mowed over, in FNMA speak, "one dream at a time." A Fannie Mae spokesman, speaking on condition of anonymity, added, "why not take a break? It's not like we're going to run out of foreclosures anytime soon. So, like, uh, Merry Christmas, OK?"

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 17:10 | 170047 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture
http://tinyurl.com/ye2r3g3  
HAMP Report: Few Loan Modifications Made Permanent

 

Another OMGObama boondoggle with our hard earned money thrown in the black hole of Gov't waste and excess 

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 07:59 | 170318 Crime of the Century
Sat, 12/19/2009 - 17:02 | 170037 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I have never understood any of this, from the beginning. Everyone agrees that there was a housing bubble. It's rare to get 100% agreement on anything, yet we have it here. So there was a bubble. Simple logic leads me, anyway, to the conclusion that the solution to a bubble is to let it deflate. If you don't deflate the bubble, then it continues to destroy the environment surrounding it (the economy). But from day one, we have put god-knows-how-much money into exactly the opposite proposition. We must prevent this bubble from deflating at all costs!!! This cannot work. And it won't. It's just depressing to see how much money taxpayers are now on the hook for as the government doubles down (triples? what's the multiple? We don't even know!) on the worst bet of the past 80 years. :(

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 21:04 | 170621 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Numerous finance weenies have written extensively about why letting the bubble deflate is not a viable option. In essence it goes like this:
1. Almost all mortgage debt is non-recourse debt in the U.S. Thus, it makes economic sense for underwater homeowners to default on their mortgage.
2. If we let the bubble deflate the real estate market crashes.
3. If the real estate market crashes then lots and lots of homeowners are going to walk away from their mortgages. Some analysts predict that 75% of mortgage holders would default in a real estate crash scenario. I believe them--it looks like 25% will default under current conditions.
4. If mortgage holders default in these numbers then every major bank in the U.S. fails.
5. Life insurance companies and pension funds hold tons of bank preferred stock (here's some irony: because it was supposed to be an ultra-safe investment). If the banks fail then every major life insurance company fails and every major pension fund effectively fails.
6. These failures will cause credit to collapse.
7. The credit collapse causes a depression that begins in the U.S. but then goes global.

In short, letting the housing bubble burst is a bit like detonating a financial nuclear bomb. Industries in the kill zone get nuked immediately, but lingering radiation kills the rest.

All you need to remember is this: Debt-based monetary systems cannot accommodate asset deflation because it causes a wave of insolvency to sweep across the system. Helicopter Ben gets a lot of flack for printing money like there is no tomorrow, but I'm not sure he has a choice. He has to deflate the currency to avoid asset deflation.

Greenspan is far more culpable than Bernanke. Greenspan built the bubble.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 19:17 | 170126 JR
JR's picture

Amazing.  I’ve never heard it stated so simply.  Sometimes we’re too close to see. I.E., we all agree it is a bubble, a bubble is not good, it should be allowed to deflate, but instead of letting it deflate we’ve done everything in the world to keep it pumped up.

Good, simple, profound logic!

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 16:56 | 170033 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Interesting theories. Next wave with Prime mortgage loans - walk away  

http://www.loanvaluegroup.com/downloads/Strategic_Default_White_Paper.pdf

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 16:43 | 170023 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

JR's got it. I'm glad I've got my job, but realize that if I was laid off, it would be quite liveable. I could collect unemployment checks, go to school with subsidized tuition, and refuse to make house payments and live 5 months or more rent free. Not such a bad gig. Soup line living, it ain't.

(PS: Man, that CAPTCHA isn't just a human being test, it's an IQ test, ha!)

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 16:39 | 170021 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wealthiest Nation? Probably...

But most of what we see is illusion. How many of the new homes are unencumbered? The 30%+ that are owned outright also lose value everyday. Ditto the cars and the stuff being carted out of Best Buy this weekend. The Price level is the numerator in this equation with stuff the denominator. The price level is composed of currency, credit and debt and the velocity with which it all turns over. You can't get any of these without a job. No job, no consumption, no factories; no jobs. Declining employment equals declining consumption if you also have declining credit and debt. We've "pulled forward" or borrowed at least a decades worth of demand for stuff (and homes and cars). The overall debt and credit totals have rolled over for the first time in 80 years. All the FED has really done is buy up the junk paper the system is shedding due to lack of demand--it substitutes imaginary paper for market based/created debt which is declining in total volume, quality and price (except for this b-wave rally). Still, total credit declines. The FED buys up all the agency paper and all the treasury paper--and still the total debt pyramid declines. Psychology has changed--we're all savers now--and velocity has cratered. Cash is king (and that's gold and silver). Six months of food in storage and a thousand rounds.

Big Sigh. This afternoon we've got a new present to look forward to at X-Mas. Additional taxes and disincentives and uncertainty for small businesses in the form of a health care bill. This is what happens when you elect ignorant ideologues who've never met a payroll. Or been behind the iron curtain. Where is the tipping point? Are we past it?

Extend and pretend doesn't fool Mr. Market. Its not nice to fool Mr. Market. Pass the collateral calls on the Dubai Debt will you. Got cds's?

"sad" Euclid

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 15:54 | 170000 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

December 18, 2009
Amidst fading hopes for real reform on issues ranging from high finance to health care, economist Robert Kuttner and journalist Matt Taibbi join Bill Moyers to discuss Wall Street's power over the federal government

http://tinyurl.com/yavcauk

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 14:49 | 169970 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Mad Max - hold off on foreclosures until the property market would allow them to actually re-sell them?

Umm...the property market would allow them to be resold right now - provided their priced correctly. I assume what you mean is wait for a return to bubble prices. You think the banks are going to let people sit in their homes without paying a mortgage for 15 years?

And no one's getting thrown out onto the street or into the cold. They can rent like the rest of us. It's not a death sentence. All that will happen is their credit scores will take a hit for making bad decisions. Woe is them.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 18:22 | 170085 Objective Soul
Objective Soul's picture

If the market gets flooded with forclosures this would depress the values of properties thus lowering property taxes and hurting the states who are already having trouble with budgets ?

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 19:14 | 170125 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Spot on. We have a vicious cycle. The D.C lenders foreclose and cause deflation. It kills the local economy, then works its way to the state and then we have to have a federal stimulus.

To some extent, the more we foreclose, the more we have to stimulate. I think that is the definition of a no-win situation.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 06:21 | 170269 Objective Soul
Objective Soul's picture

So the government props up these banking institutions which deserved to fail for their pre-meditated lack of due diligence of properly screening borrowers in order to collect quick and massive pools of money from this risky yet populous low tranche pool.

 The TARP was put in place in part to seed money to  the corrupt banks to allow them to weather the storm of foreclosures, ease financial anxieties and to extend entaglements  to the banks that were  prudent and  not so foolish. ie: To muddy the waters,  To placate and make them partners instead of critics of the crime.

Can someone answer me this ?

Now that TARP is being paid back what prop up mechanisms will allow the games to continue ?

Are the bad loans being put onto the Federal or Federal Reserve balance sheet through Fannie and Freddie ?

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 22:22 | 170218 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The sooner you take the medicine, the better.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 14:35 | 169961 vfsv-fl
vfsv-fl's picture

What about the rest of us who saved our money & didn't make stupid decisions on mortgages?

When do we got a holiday & get to buy a house at a price a rational person would pay? (Or should I say "pay back"?)

Instead it is accepted now that stupid people must be bailed out from their stupidity with my money.  For some reason this has to happen before the stupids realize they could walk away & start over, thereby handing the stupid lessons over to the banks instead.

My best hope at this point is the hole gets so deep that the government has to stop printing & let nature take its course. OR keep printing & drive up the value of my gold until a year or three from now ----when nature takes it course anyway.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 18:09 | 170079 Objective Soul
Objective Soul's picture

That is moral hazard.

Add the moral hazard of rewarding the Bankers who destroyed our economy instead of punishing them, the hijacking of science and a long list of other absurdities and capital will pull back in anxiety, further depressing our economy.

Nature may take it's course soon enough because of the combination of greed, moral hazard, and absurdities comming out of Washington.

Almost seems staged, like the controlled demolition of our economy and way of living.

 

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 20:45 | 170616 merehuman
merehuman's picture

you imply this has all been a collossol accident, er.. coincidence . I never made it past 9th grade. So maybe i am mistaken. Seems  many countries had low interest,high property markup ,and now failure.

These same countries also have fiat currency and central bankers. All coincidence.

It gets better...Goldmanites are in control of most financial power centers. Many of them are members of CFR and many are jewish. Sure a lot of coincidences.  I dont have any ax to  grind with jews or anybody else.

Just saying i cant help but notice.

Sun, 12/20/2009 - 14:26 | 170439 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yeah, it does almost seem staged.  Banks and .gov seem to be about the only beneficiaries here.

Post above about having BIG demonstrations looks to be about the only thing we can do as citizens other than hunker down, spend less (except for gold) and try to ease our way off the grid.

If this idea of not paying taxes gets the traction of deadbeats not paying mortgages, well then, little ol' moral me will hop on that train...

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 16:53 | 170030 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Unfortunately, you're still stuck in the erroneous assumption that a moral person still has some place in the modern-day U.S. That's akin to a Jew still thinking he/she had a place in Hitler's Germany. You can be a good patriot, lie on your mortgage application, dive headfirst into debt/wage slavery and lose yourself in blissful shrieking of "sieg heil", or you can be an honest person and expect the thugs in power to steal everything you have, likely including your life, especially once the inevitable consequences of socialism begin to show themselves and they decide it's time to crack down on the "malcontents" in places like this.

No doubt this will be interpreted as trivializing the horrific experiences of the Holocaust. I say: wait a few more years.

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 16:13 | 170009 JR
JR's picture

To be crass, many of the people who have foreclosed homes originally lived in apartments before they “bought” their $500,000+ houses in high cost areas such as San Jose, California and, in that many of those purchases were with no interest down, cash back incentives, 0-3% interest, and property tax breaks, these “homeowners” were out very little and paying no more than what they would have paid for SJ rent—say $1700 a month on a 30-year.  And, in that many had more than one family in a house, divide that by half and it’s $850.  Also, for many of these buyers, the government provided one-payment house insurance so the bank wasn’t left with a vacated “2-year-old fixer upper.”

In addition, say, “In California, laid-off workers can get up to 26 weeks of regular state benefits, followed by up to 20 weeks of federal extended benefits, then up to 13 weeks under a second federal extension for high unemployment states and up to 20 additional weeks under a third extension known as Fed Ed. That's a grand total of 79 weeks,” according to Kathleen Pender in the SF Chronicle November 5.

In the last 24 hours I’ve learned about two people I know who are collecting unemployment, living without making mortgage payments, and going to college—and not looking for work.

And, of course, in the spirit of “government by the people and for the bankers,” low down payment mortgages are insured by the taxpayers, ie, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) or guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) or the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Rural Housing Service (USDA-RHS).

As for taking an eviction holiday, let’s be crass again. Look for things to pick up after the new year begins: banks are holding occupied “foreclosed” homes on their books to improve their end of the year balance sheets.

And in the spirit of Santa Claus, let the government leave all wannabe homebuyers with its current message on its “increasingly popular…low down payment loans”: “Mortgage lenders will grant home loans to qualifying home buyers with a down payment of as little as 3 to 5 percent of the purchase price if the mortgage is insured…This is good news for the millions of homebuyers who are finding it difficult to save a large down payment…” From How to Buy a Home With a Low Down Payment:  http://www.pueblo.gsa.gov/cic_text/housing/low_down/low_down.htm

Sat, 12/19/2009 - 14:34 | 169957 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What about the rest of us who saved our money & didn't make stupid decisions on mortgages?

When do we got a holiday & get to buy a house at a price a rational person would pay? (Or should I say "pay back"?)

Instead it is accepted now that stupid people must be bailed out from their stupidity with my money. For some reason this has to happen before the stupids realize they could walk away & start over, thereby handing the stupid lessons over to the banks instead.

My best hope at this point is the hole gets so deep that the government has to stop printing & let nature take its course. OR keep printing & drive up the value of my gold until a year or three from now ----when nature takes it course anyway.

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