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February ADP At 217,000, Beats Expectations Of 180,000
The February ADP private payroll number came as usual above expectations, printing at 217,000 on consensus of 180,000, with the January number revised up from 187,000 to 189,000. The reason why the market appears to have not only ignored the better than expected data, but traded against it is the following line: "The recent pattern
of rising employment gains since the middle of last year was reinforced
by today’s report, as the average gain from December through February
(217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months
(63,000)." Alas, checking in with NFP data validates the complete lack of ADP data credibility, which now joins NAR housing data, various diffusion indices and of course consumer confidence data on the trash heap of busted economic indicators.
From the release:
Private-sector employment increased by 217,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from December 2010 to January 2011 was revised up to 189,000 from the previously reported increase of 187,000.
This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests continued solid growth of nonfarm private employment early in 2011. The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year was reinforced by today’s report, as the average gain from December through February (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (63,000).
According to the ADP Report, employment in the service-providing sector rose by 202,000 in February, marking thirteen consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 15,000, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing employment rose 20,000, the fifth consecutive monthly gain.
Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 13,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 104,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 100,000.
In February, construction employment dropped 9,000. The total decline in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,130,000. Employment in the financial services sector remained flat in February.
And two pretty charts from ADP:
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Could I get these guys to do my taxes?
Job situation worsens again
http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/us-job-situation-once-again-worsens/
Well.. That seals it.. Nothing to worry about. Recovery full steam ahead..
+217K jobs while tax withholdings received by the Treasury fall. LMAO.
Since when did ADP get into the Snake Oil and Magic Beans business?
The closer we draw near to the grand finale of this financial circus, expect to see more absurd and conflicting data as you point out. I loved the "consumer CONfidence" survery from the U Michigan (easily manipulated) whereas actual polls conducted by unbiased sources show consumers are as confident as they were during the Great Depression...
When you see such great disparity and two opposite ends of the spectrum reporting the same data, you know somethings up...
Jim Jones - "Git yer Kool-aid here...ice cold refreshing Kool-aid here!"
Lies, damned lies and ADP numbers
Challenger Report: Announced U.S. Job Cuts Rose 20% From Year Ago
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/announced-u-s-job-cuts-rose-20-...
I believe the ADP payroll data holds as much credibility as OJ Simpson at a murder trial.
To hell with this manipulated shit. As CD says, End Game...
Fook'n Banana Republic... the sooner this corrupt to the core U.S. regime dies the better the whole world will be...
... unfortunately killing the FED/Wall Street/U.S. government cancer is going to take the apathetic, dolcile citizen's of the U.S. with it.
I estimate about 50% of Americans are entirely apathetic and unaware of what is going on, and that 50% will die off when they are caught off guard. The other 50% will remain and those with justice and righteousness on thier side will prevail. We will come back- the new gov't will be operated by men and women who get a small "allowance" for their voluntary work in SERVING THE PEOPLE. Currently, the vast majority of the ruling elite get paid spectacular salaries ($450k/year, for what?) while have the people serve them. That is how I know the end of this once great empire is near...
There was an article a week or so ago in the Boston Herald highlighting a retiring "civil servant" who was in the "employ" of the Massachusetts Port Authority. Said employee came to the attention of the Herald because this servant of the people was able to cash out his unused sick time -- a lump-sum check, in the amount of $ 459,000...this, on top of a six-figure pension for life, replete with CoLA, and full health care coverage.
"Play us a tune on that fiddle, why don't you, as we watch Rome burn."
I'm with the skeptics, but isn't ADP "real" data? Don't there have to be real, actual new employees hired by real employers for it to register with ADP?
I realize there may be offsets in the larger population (e.g. public sector layoffs), but doesn't this data have to be considered with more significance than Ministry of Truth data as it is backed by "real" hiring?
look at that construction jobs inverse pyramid, cliff jump. And housing is still just a double dip?
NUMBers. And given the revisionist history of all NUMBers now, doubt they are used by any real people for trading. Sure the bots are programmed to spike on such god news. The fact that the market continues to trend down..... even the bots can't take it higher.
That is a bearish signal if there ever was one.
DOW 36,000 I suppose.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/01/on-outsourcing-and-its-ills/
People never learn. ADP is to be ignored. They're never right.
And so is NFP , and CPI , and just about every other number touted in financial circles as proof of "recovery"..
This data brought to you by ADP. ADP--Trust us to make your payroll work.
>> Alas, checking in with NFP data validates the complete lack of ADP data credibility.<<
Hey Tyler, back when the ADP reports were worse that the NFP reports, didn't you used to say that it was the ADP reports that had the credibility? You've become as bad as the perma-bulls re. this stuff!
A seemingly logical conclusion, if you are presumptuous. TD was pointing out the discrepancies in the reporting data; he was not simply stating that ADP was more credible than NFP.
Oh, please, you're parsing words; it's clear that he uses stats whenever they conveniently fit his thesis and ignores them when they don't. Remember when he used to regularly quote the ABC Consumer Sentiment poll (now the Bloomberg poll) and once wrote a whole column extolling its great methodology? Well, last week's results were the strongest in a very long time, and yet all of a sudden, Tyler goes radio silent on that one.
I actually lean bearish, but cherry-picking data doesn't do anyone any good.
Here is a thought: Start your own blog.
Post whatever data you want.
Problem solved.
Or, he can say whatever he wants, fight club right ???
Put your head back in the sand.
Try replying to his post next time or shut up. You side stepped the point let his comment stand or rebuff with facts. He posted facts.
Or she can say whatever she wants, fight club right?????
The fact is this is Tyler's Blog. He can post whatever data points fits HIS thesis, not yours.
1 million hits a day, would suggest many are supportive of HIS thesis.
If you don't like the data points he provides, start your own blog. I am sure your mom will appreciate the effort.
No problem. I'll post facts ... Helping people make money, this is also a trading site, no ??? Your like all the doomers always pull out personal attacks when you can't rebuff the facts in ones post.
.... " WASHINGTON, D.C. – Feb. 24, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported freight traffic continues to register gains with U.S. railroads originating 296,980 carloads, up 8.2 percent compared with the same week last year, for the week ending Feb. 19, 2011. Intermodal volume for the week was also up, totaling 233,993 trailers and containers, up 16.9 percent compared with the same week in 2010.
Sixteen of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases from the comparable week in 2010. Those groups posting significant increases in loadings included: metallic ores, up 77.6; stone, clay and glass products, up 20.2 percent; nonmetallic minerals, up 18.9 percent; coke, up 17.8 percent, and motor vehicles and equipment, up 16.3 percent. Those commodity groups reporting a drop in weekly traffic saw only single digit declines: grain mill products, down 9 percent; waste and nonferrous scrap, down 7.2 percent, and primary forest products, down 0.8 percent.
Weekly carload volume on Eastern railroads was up 12.7 percent compared with last year. In the West, weekly carload volume was up 5.4 percent compared with the same week in 2010.
For the first seven weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,981,437 carloads, up 6.7 percent from last year, and 1,524,340 trailers and containers, up 9.1 percent from the same point in 2010.
Canadian railroads reported volume of 73,448 cars for the week, up 4.1 percent from last year, and 46,489 trailers and containers, up 6.8 percent from 2010. For the first seven weeks of 2011, Canadian railroads reported cumulative volume of 488,287 carloads, down 0.8 percent from the same point last year, and 316,988 trailers and containers, up 4.4 percent from last year.
Combined North American rail volume for the first seven weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 2,569,089 carloads, up 5.1 percent compared with the same point last year, and 1,891,676 trailers and containers, up 8.4 percent compared with last year." .................
http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2011/02/24-rai...
Pin Drop.
Oh, I'm sorry but I had to check my gold and silver holdings so I wasn't aware moving SHIT from warehouse to warehouse equals JOBS and stablizing middle class.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose in February to its highest level in 11 months as government and non-profit employers let workers go, a report showed on Wednesday.
Employers announced 50,702 planned job cuts last month, the highest level since March 2010 and a jump of 32 percent from January's 38,519, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Layoffs were 20 percent higher than the 42,090 announced in February of last year, marking the first year-over-year increase since May 2009.
Maybe people are adjusting because the shadow banking credit is no longer flowing like it did for 20 years. The USA needed this credit bitch slap.
Maybe the unemployed will look in the mirror and start taking lower paying jobs , not sitting back waiting for the $ 50,000 cake jobs they had before, those jobs have been streamlined out, efficiency,.... ( that other are willing to take ? ) and stop the " keeping up with the jones mindset ".
Rent, living with what you have and not off credit.?
Watch Out!
You never know who's around which corner and able to take what ever they want... Are we closer to the Law of Man or the Law of Nature at this point?? What is the system set up for NOW - not "ideally"... And which set of laws will benefit whom?
I have a job - but certainly don't need it to take care of myself or my family.
How many Americans have gun's. God bless our forefathers.
This is , will not be Lybya. Most people around the globe tripping over themselves trying to move here or send their kids here for a great education. If you don't like the USA and her opportunities don't let the door hit you in the ass. Some half-wit drugged up scum bag, crying " woe is me " comes in my place he will see me holding my .30-06 !!!! Look at the union fools crying / gnashing teeth over money that was never around in the first place , more lies built upon the shadow credit. It's gone, no more retirement at 45-50 with 90% pay. Fuck um '
Got books ??
Agreed, but how else are you going to sell Jim Cramer and Russian Bride advertisements to the end-of-the world crowd?
Disclaimer: This site is still good for innovative analysis and contrarian perspective. However, it seems the stretch for negative news to fit the overall milieu is becoming more difficult.
Keep selling the bullshit " hyperinflation " some day soon.
Lets have another Gonzo Lira doomer post or John Williams ... They have been dead wrong !!!
Dollar denominated debt bitch slaps those dog's. Day in, day out ....
When does hyperinflation start ? The credit implosion was 2-3 years ago ?
"End of the world crowd?"
Please. After 30 years in the business, I know ZH is the best free source of info out there, hands down. Even ThomsonAnalytics can't hold a flame to TD's work and analysis.
Most here know this current financial system can't last too long. If you want real "end of the rold doom" go elsewhere. We are talking facts here.
This is not by any means "cherry picking." There is a standard deviation that is considered acceptable and which for the most part has been the norm for the past ~70 years (outside of NFP et al). As of last year, various gov't reported (or manipulated) data started to deviate by a wide margin from reality (which is in a stable trajectory). That can easily be extrapolated from real sources. Just go to any unemployment office and observe. That's called fundamental analysis.
Agreed!
Another fresh coat of paint on a car with a blown engine.
More great jobs: I guess Burger King just hired a bunch of job seekers with Phds in Ag-chemistry with 100gs of school debt to flip burgers.
Why is this data failing to track? Has something changed in the workforce or methodology or taxes it something causing this discrepancy? On the surface this sort of data should be good and less subject to make believe propaganda? There are so many different methodologies and adjustments to job numbers I wish we could just get simple unadjusted raw data. And I agree with earlier posts that back in summer this site was touting adp as the better indicator. So why the change?
Yet Challenger just posted that February layoffs are at 11 month high:
February planned layoffs highest in 11 months: Challenger
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/February-planned-layoffs-rb-2340148162.html;_ylt=ArTAOZczjOz1eeiJLwA3UNK7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dHZrNHBhBHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNwbGFubmVkbGF5b2Y-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
"It is too soon to say whether the increases in January and now February represent a trend," John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.
I guess a trend is three months, so next month there will have to be improvement.
Why do these people have high paying jobs and offer such drivel?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose in February to its highest level in 11 months as government and non-profit employers let workers go, a report showed on Wednesday.
Employers announced 50,702 planned job cuts last month, the highest level since March 2010 and a jump of 32 percent from January's 38,519, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Layoffs were 20 percent higher than the 42,090 announced in February of last year, marking the first year-over-year increase since May 2009...
Sounds to me like the MSM will have the spin cycle on full today. Meanwhile GOLD and SILVER are telling the real tale of the tape. They are calling bullcrap on all of the happy-happy joy-joy propaganda.
Rainbow stew bitchez.
Exactly! Would you bet on a horse that wins 20% of the time - me either - ADP's numbers don't jive - ever
I would bet they are printing positive numbers regardless of reality for 1 simple reason.
Fed credibility...they must maintain the " face of the Fed" less they loose control...
1) Print good numbers...Fed can withdraw while saying "I told you so"
2) Now that they and zbankers have all the cash it is time to crash the system
3) Fed comes back in to save the day again but this time for the people
4) Money goes directly to the people AFTER banks and the wealthy have bought eveything and anything of value at "uber" discount rates.
5) People with new found cash over pay for assets AGAIN
6) Wash, rinse, repeat until 2020.
But , but , but .............. If the number was bad, you guys would say " this validates our doomer outlook." Bla , bla , bla .... You need a rag , you have some egg white on your face !!!
Just ........ " Wow. "
Last night the local nightly news was giddy reporting a job gain in WA State of 11,000 in January. What they failed to report was that the number was seasonally adjusted and that the non-seasonally adjusted was job losses of 47,000. As the number of job gains were reported, I wondered how WA. State had created almost 1/3 of the non-farm payrolls reported by the federal government for January. It seems that I do not need to wonder about that anymore.
Now does anyone believe that the local nightly news will report the non-seasonally adjusted number tonight? Nah, not a chance.
Yawn. Aren't (income) tax receipts pretty universally in the crapper? So unless everyone is re-jiggering their withholding (and I'm pretty sure many people aren't even aware that you can do that about as often as you'd like) how does that jive with this "news" from ADP?
So trucks are moving on the highways, Cat booming, Boeing, Chipotle, and McD's, Whole foods, people shopping up and down Michigan Ave every day of the week.
Its all because of POMO and QE2.
Everything is getting better since 2008, everything. Look around, its a slow process but things are getting better. Even Turd started a new business, why would he do this before Armageddon ???
Everything's getting better, huh? How about gasoline prices, food prices, mortgage rates, and health care costs for starters. Margin compression is hitting the middle and lower economic classes like a python squeezing a goat. But the view from your Beamer probably doesn't include that.
Shhhhh! Gas is up due to stronger DEMAND! Even Hummers are back in fashion!
LMAO!
Toss out cable and your t.v. , stop eating out, live off what you make, no more dunkin donuts / starbux , movies, if you can't afford life work harder or be a little smarter with ones cash. . . ?
Fine. So does the fed.gov stop spending 11% of GDP in deficit before or after the next credit-lock dislocation?
In other words Spalding, the "improvement" you're talking about is caused by nothing more than that we're blowing the next soon-to-be-popped bubble - you've even said it yourself with POMO and QE2.
Until Uncle Sugar cuts-off the free junk from The Big Rock Candy Mountain any claims that "everything is getting better" is nothing more than hopium-induced blindness to reality.
By the way - nice job completely ignoring my point.
That would require "dissident thought" of while schmalding spailes is uncapable of...
Tyler may be just expressing frustration that once trusted time series have gradually become worthless/captured.
Discrepancies in time series nobody uses such as tax receipts and Treasury outlays to the states paint a picture dire.
Possibly a good report although not for the reasons many would claim. Firstly I suspect the headline numbers are wrong possibly due to a seasonal anomaly. That anomaly might actually be indicating some moderately good news though. Since most of the jobs were service jobs in small and medium businesses this suggests to me the anomally might be that not as many service jobs were lost as usual in February. Perhaps these are jobs servicing the rich who are begining to recover. It would be indicative of an unbalanced economy, but suggests there is just a hint of trickle down from the wealth effect and general hubris around the markets. It is however very vulnerable to changes in sentiment and I would not be surprised to see those gains wiped out by recent uncertainties in the world. It also does not include the coming government sector job losses. Bit of a mixed bag in my view.
I seem to recall that the last guestimate by these yahoos pretty much worthless.