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Great stuff Bruce. Smells to me like a Washington turf war. As Rainman pointed out, F & F have at least theoretical blank check books. If they began to use that in any serious fashion, they would drive any new QE program, with minimal oversight/intervention from anyone other than the Banking Queen (Barney Frank).
Baldy Ben has no legal authority to do most of what he's doing, but he certainly doesn't intend to share power with lowly mortgage brokers. Ben is also running out of options. He has a snowball's chance of getting anything new through Congress. This might be his way of intimidating/highjacking F & F to play ball. Chicago ethics, a few trillion dollars a throw. It will be fun to watch, but I'll be damned if I see how playing silly games with dead mortages really changes anything.
Sounds like they are moving into place to crash the market again by placing the Mark to market rules back in place.
This is going to be really, really, really bad.
Thanks for the great post!
There are a couple of strings floating that I've been hearing - 1, that some sort of quiet default is necessary in the US space, 2, that mortgages are being successfully challenged in court as invalid when attempts are made to foreclose, 3, the gulf is going to create another massive wave of defaults in those areas, 4, the delisting of F/F opens some doors, 5, that FASB is going to require full MTM by 2012.
I'm trying to sort out how those threads tie together, but I think we'll look back to this six months from now and say, "GOd, why didn't we see this coming, it was so OBVious."
Is this the Feds version of project mayhem?
Blow it all up and see where the paper lands. If they do blow up Fannie and Freddie it will take years to sort out who owns what piece of worthless motgage paper.
This could be fun :)
I am sitting here reading this, thinking the same thing. I am particularly interested in how this bears on foreign (Chinese) holders of Fannie and Freddie debt.
Will we see / have we seen action in the CDS markets in response to this move?
"You see in this world there are two kinds of people my friend, those with loaded guns, -click- and those who dig."
Only on ZH, thanks Bruce.
I smell a Fannie/Freddie bankruptcy filing once they put all this trash on their balance sheets. Hence the move for those stocks onto the OTCBB. There are going to be some very ticked off bondholders, when Benny gives them the shaft. This is a shuffle off the FED's sheet onto Fannie/Freddie with every intention of bankruptcy to default on it and make it disappear.
The fighting question will be "Who owns the properties"? And I guarantee no one knows, and they will all be claiming they do. This is going to be a mess.
"The fighting question will be "Who owns the properties"? And I guarantee no one knows, and they will all be claiming they do."
Part of the "miracle" of Bwaney and Rubin's slicing and dicing of mortgages to mitigate risk, was the original would have gone into one pool, a second into another, a third into another.
Me thinks they were too clever by half this time, as someone who is being foreclosed on (the defendant) has the right to face the holder of the note (the plaintiff) in court...and the holder has an obligation to prove to the court they have legal title to the property.
A quick google search reveals as recently as yesterday (second one down);
F/F have an unlimited credit line from Uncle Sugar, courtesy of the Great Xmas Eve '09 Taxpayer Massacre announcement.
More coal will be stuffed into our stocking on Xmas Eve '10. Muni backstop anyone ??
Great job, Bruce.
You nailed it Rainman.
Well (1) We can see the FHA balance sheet (2) the MBS has always been "defaultable" (sic) (3) with all of the previous QE the fed's balance sheet has been expanding, not contracting, so not sure what you mean by shifting $4 trillion OFF OF the Fed's balance sheet (4) Nothing worth doing is ever easy, that's what the politicians don't seem to understand, or even better, that's why the politicians are not in the best decision to make decisions about what's best for the markets, elected officials never are. However, the best solution would be allowing Fannie / Freddie's bondholders to take whatever the bankruptcy process provides them instead of infusing them with more and more and more capital to prop up housing prices and in effect keeping zombie banks alive. Check out John Hussmans writings on this subject or read Panic by Andy Redleaf.....
- I wonder what the FHA balance sheet looks like?
- Is this mortgage paper now considered 'defaultable'? (Are Fannie/Freddie now 'bad banks'?)
- Is this another round of QE in drag (shift $4 trillion off the Fed balance sheet to add $4t in Treasuries)?
... Nothing easy/sensible comes to mind ...
simply transfer of obligations to agencies pre-default to isolate treasuries. china treasuries for agencies swap months ago must have anticipated this. fannie/freddie preferred now defunct - why not bonds? who now owns most of the agencies, banks? find this out and you'll probably find the guppy. the coming loss and default on the millions of gulf coast homes necessitates drastic planning now. betcha big banks have been divesting agencies!
Bruce, this was the result of implementing a new accounting rule--it actually allows a more friendly recognition of losses for the GSE given the MBS are no longer recorded on a MTM basis and losses are reflected in their loan reserve accounts.
Great catch Bruce.
Those IOU's replacing Social Security funds should be redeemed immediately to prop it up...afterall a ponzi must have cash flow or it fails ;-)
There's no way the GSE debt ever shows up on the US balance sheet. That much is true. The rest is shuffling of deck chairs on the Titanic. And shutting the GSEs down is out of the question, unless you want to collapse the entire US new and existing homes market - it is the only significant source of liquidity in that market. Kill it, and it's instant shutdown. So let them play with the numbers.
First it has to go to the Treasury then it can be absorbed legally by the FED.
That is just QE 2.0! They still need a few trillion to have a cool five.
Amazing work, sir... Someone call the press, lol.
Is this a G20 concession? Something of that nature?
Okay, now I see why we need a $5T QE2.0. Why did it take so long for them to come clean?
Oh just got through looking over the latest 10q for Fannie.
Damn spread is down to 0.30%. =( Or about 9 billion a year. Last year was nice as the spread was at 1.3% or ~$36 billion. Current loss rate is ~$5 billion per quarter, so now they are actually losing money =(. Fannie currently has about ~$60 billion in loss reserves and about ~$75 billion in Treaserv Preferred, so they can no longer clear out the treaservs preferreds with loss reservers and operate on a break even basis.
What is really irritating to me is that Fannie has a AAA long term debt rating from everyone, and they can borrow long at ~4%, but they are using the Treaserv Preferreds to borrow long at 10%. What they need to do is buy a bank somewhere, transform to a Bank Holding Co, and then borrow short from the Treaserv at 0.20%ish and lend at 5.1%ish... A roughly 5% spread would net them $150 billion a year from mortgage interest alone...
But as this was just a political institution and not a banking institution that option was never made available to them...
The reason for the large increase can be explained because Fannie / Freddie purchased the bad loans out of the MBS pools, I believe. While the Holdings of mortgages by Fannie & Freddie increased by $2.6 trillion and $1.8 trillion respectively, the amount of MBS (lines 59 and 62 of the June release) decreased by $1.8 trillion and $2.6 trillion. The net increase in direct holdings of mortgages by Fannie & Freddie increased by $4,366 billion while the MBS issued by Fannie & Freddie decreased by $4,421 billion for a net decline of $55.1 bn.
You can't fathom this without a PHD
Pretty Huge Deficit
Oh, and one more thing, Fannie is making about 1.2% spread on that 2.8 trillion...
~33 billion a year. Nice work if you can get it.
Does that go to the Fed's coffers (as holders of the interest-paying assets), or what?
This was talked about in Fannie's annual report. Its basically all the SIV's coming onto the balance sheet. I am surprised that the latest quarterly didnt have them incorporated, but this is why Fannie and Freddie have been running such horrendous losses, to build up their loss reserves so that when these loans come on the books, and have to be bought from banks at Par because of HAMP, the agencies have the capital to complete this congressionally mandated action.
If you look at the annual, and the 1q10 report you can see that the "losses" taken by Fannie (at least, didnt read Freddies) are almost exactly equal to the build of the loss reserves. If Fannie took their current (as of 1q10) loss reserves, they could immediately pay off the Treaserv preferreds and be at break even. Then they could use profits for the quarter to pay off losses as they accumulate. Yes it would be break even, but that is better than announcing bullshit losses.
Now granted, I am not a CPA, nor is my background in finance, and if anyone else is gambling with Fannie or Freddy that does have this background would like to tell me that these loss reserves are on the money, please do so (It wont stop me from gambling with Fannie), but I would like to know.
Interesting. But the same Z1 does not consolidate GSEs and their mortgage pools in its tables. They are still two separate lines throughout.
I suppose the Fed's statistics reports have no legal ramifications, and it's Treasury and ultimately the Pres who will decide whether to formally bring the pools onto the GSE's balance sheets. For all the reasons you give I doubt it will happen.
From p.35, footnote 1 of the Z.1: "Federal Home Loan Banks, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, Farm Credit System, the Financing Corporation, and the Resolution Funding Corporation. The Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) was included until it was fully privatized in 2004:Q4. Beginning 2010:Q1, almost all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage pools (table F.125) are consolidated on Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s balance sheets." The reclass can be seen on table L.210. Of course the most hilarious part is that the "Budget Agency" debt of $23.6 billion (L.210, Line 2) is all that the Fed recognizes as being part of the US debt officially. (L.209, Line 32).
So, all the US federal government officially owes the Fed is 23.6 billion? Man I want those accountants working for me.
All that rolls over on to the Treasury books when the smoke clears.
The Fed is not owed anything in the long run, when the balancing occurs.
It's just not on the people's tab -- yet.
So its official. Unfortnately Fannie did not get the memo on this. They show an 800b BS as of May 30.
I bet they got the memo and they're busy cleaning drawers while trying to thow out their previous misconceptions. I predict obsfuscated legallese for a few months until this becomes public knowledge. June's fannie report should be fun reading, tho. When's it due?
>This would put us $3T or so over the debt limit and bankrupt the government on paper. I find it odd that the Fed is pushing this at this time. It works against them.
Benny boy is definitely up to something. Hasn't he "bitched" about this every time he reports to the hill? I don't see how it works against the Fed Reserve.
Good catch. Why now and what are they hoping to achieve with this move?
I think TPTB may want to crash the current world financial system and replace/reset it with a one-world currency with a one-world central bank. This would increase their power immensely. So, increasing the US national debt by 1/3 brings us closer to the collapse. If the US dollar (the reserve currency of the world) collapses, that may necessitate the reset. I can't say for sure that TPTB have this intent, but I also cannot discount it based on what I see going on.
The Euro is such a continent-wide experiment, and has just proved it cant work without central control of all legislation and taxation.
Presumably they have noticed, and are working on plan B (how to stop inflation affecting them)
$4,000,000,000,000 balance sheet shuffle and Bruce effin Krasting has the scoop. Eat your heart out old media :D
so what. bruce missed the skinny on where lebron was going.
My bet/hope was the Knicks. Another five years of bad b-ball....
"That is why you fail." - Yoda
No chance he was going to NY, would have cost him $12 million in taxes! Fla has no income tax.
good point. If Bruce had a phd in sports analysis he would've known.
Yeah. EPIC FAIL Bruce. You'll never get a job at CNN at this rate.
An instant 1/3 increase in the recognized US deficit (4.4T = 32% of +/-13.6T, recognized debt ceiling)?
This won't go unnoticed.
Bruce, You are the Man!
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