The Fed Just Telegraphed Not To Expect Much If Anything From Bernanke's 3:45pm Speech

Tyler Durden's picture

Is the Fed telegraphing that today's 3:45pm speech, expected by many to presage some form of monetary easing preannouncement
by the Chairman, will leave many disappointed? That could well be the
case based on the just disclosed data from the Fed's mouthpiece, Jon Hilsenrath, who spoke to Chicago Fed's Evans. In the interview, we find that the Fed president decided to cut its outlook (long overdue), but more importantly, Evans, a diehard dove and a big fan of additional easing, announced that he "doesn’t
want to add to [QE]." In other words, as we have been warning, the
S&P will have to drop at least another 25% before the "high
threshold" for more money printing is reached. Ironically, for the first
time, discounting even near certain future events does not work,
courtesy of Central Planning, which needs the market to act in a
centrally planned way and drop despite the inevitable Zimbabwe reaction.

From the WSJ:

Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is marking down his growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012, but says he isn’t prepared to call for new Fed actions to support the economy.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Evans said he now expects the economy to grow by 3% to 3.25% in 2011 and 3.5% and 3.75% in 2012, compared to the 4% growth rate he was expecting before a recent string of disappointing economic data.

He said the recovery remains intact and that the damaging effects of recent shocks to growth – such as Japan’s earthquake and tsunami – should prove transitory.

The Fed later this month will conclude its $600 billion Treasury securities purchase program. Mr. Evans doesn’t want to add to it, but he also has no inclination to reduce the Fed’s portfolio of mortgage or Treasury securities any time soon, he said.

Mr. Evans was among the Fed’s more outspoken proponents of the Treasury purchase program. His comments suggest that there isn’t a strong base at the Fed right now for more monetary easing. Proponents of the Fed’s easy money stance might instead be focused on keeping the current policy in place for a long time.

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PicassoInActions's picture

Fed wants to be like Apple.

Will surprise us to get the best shock result.

hugovanderbubble's picture

After Listening to bullshit told by Fisher in the Scam Media called CNBC, for me any FED report will be misleading and biased.

End the Fed

US is stronger than this Organization, US WAKE UP¡

suldog's picture

You are correct about the Fed, however Fisher is the one guy in there worth a damn.

hugovanderbubble's picture

If he´s a ethical guy , he must leave Dallas Fed.

Then i will agree he´s a worth guy, meanwhile hes still working for the scammers.

carbonmutant's picture

QE3 is a wet match

hugovanderbubble's picture

QE3 will be done during 2012

After Euro Kicks Greece and haircuts stablished.

Thereafter at a huge discount vs current prices the last QE3 befores Mayan´s Date.


Then NWO ...easy route map

TruthInSunshine's picture

QE3 is a wet fart.


Hey, why 3:45 pm? He could have said what he needs to lie about at 9:45 am, no?

Cdad's picture

Nice timing.  Just in time to maintain today's paper thin, ETF bid so as to allow Europe to close positively.  

Prepare for S&P/Euroland dissonance.  On with the Plunging and Screaming trade.

hugovanderbubble's picture

If u bet for a huge divergence,


EUR should be quoting like 1.20-1.25


The big movement gonna be in forex

Boston's picture

I see the EUR plunging.....along with the S&P plunging.  

(ala John Taylor)


hugovanderbubble's picture

1220-1250 sp

1.28-1.32 EURUSD agree sir.

mayhem_korner's picture

What about Treasury yields?  If the market REALLY doesn't expect the presses to start (I don't think it will ever be fully "priced out"), shouldn't the bluff be called by a nice fat 125 bp jump in the 10Y?

earless rabbits to the moon...!

hugovanderbubble's picture

Bond markets will destroy Equity. (Hugo Peterssen till deleverage is completed)

mayhem_korner's picture

All that fiat is going to flow to Ts with no increase in yields?  So is the QE trigger more the gasp of the crushed equity holders rather than a run-up in debt service for the U.S.? 

I'm not convinced, but interested in your thought process...

kaa1016's picture

2.5% on the 10 year and S&P 1000 by the fall and then all hell breaks loose next year. The writing is on the wall.

lizzy36's picture

They will keep ZIRP in place until my niece (3) graduates med school.

Oddly i can't help but wonder what happens if they actually raised rates (since ZIRP doesn't seem to be working). I know a mean reversion on TSY bonds, bankrupts the US (assuming it is not already bankrupt).

Bur for consumers, even investors. If money isn't cheap, and risk starts to get priced properly, and all those seniors who can't or won't invest in stock market, start getting decent yield again, what happens to the economy?

hugovanderbubble's picture


No just Zero Interest or hyper low long interest rates range, could perfectly be negative the long run of the curve. Thats the biggest threat for The Fed and G.20

Remember the 10yrs bonds is built with: (1 + Long term growth...which growth..the Public one?...cos Private has been exterminated in middle low classes) * ( 1+ 10yrs Inflation Expected)...which inflation????? More Printing¿ jajaja.  US is not to big to fail, thats my statement. Be ready for a big protectionism age.

------World Scream for Deflationary Natural Basis (till the bad stuff Toxic Assets are liquidated)

Back to Protectionism

Thats why they want to inflate commodity prices will revolt in MENA area

Cos all the REAL ESTATE still hasnt dropped to normal curve across the globe( Canada,Australia,Hong Kong,London,France,Spain,Dubai)

and alllllllllllll the debt has been backed into real estate hard assets...we are in that point switching the collaterals....

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

It would be great for the overall economy minus housing and the banks if interest rates were at 2 or 3%.  The US economy needs to decouple from housing and large financial institutions.  This will be difficult, but those 2 need to go through some serious pain to get better.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Huge relief cause I was expecting the Bernank to be like: "Yo you mofos ready fo the Q-eazaay after after party?"

He's radical!

Medea's picture

You guys need to cut back on the "as we have been warning" type stuff. You're a great blog with great content. Let it speak for itself (it already does).

RobotTrader's picture

Soon as they heard the news, the F12-punching, bit-flipping, bi-polar "natural resource" investors started dumping GLD, SLV, USO, etc.

Hands down, these guys are the most jittery, nervous guys in the NYSE casino.

No conviction whatsoever.

Unlike IYR investors, who have enjoyed a comfortable ride up with nary a correction.

oogs66's picture

IYR is a great short right now.  Check out CMBX.  Equity market making the mistake of ignoring weakness in credit markets too long again.

hugovanderbubble's picture



Completly agree

B.O, has lost control and credibility, specially cos he hasnt fight the Fed status quo.

Ron Paul is the future for US citizens

In spain commercial real estate has been forced to restate rental prices from 20  euros per sq m to 8 euros, do the maths....

And Reits still up¡¡¡ WHAT A FALACY_FARCE .....Banks keeping Reits up....Stop Manipulating Real Estate prices to avoid massive crash.

SheepDog-One's picture

IYR awesome short, one day soon that joke will get monkeyhammered.

The Swedish Chef's picture

Is it then that the $20/oz silver you promised us by June back in April is coming? Just asking ´cause I´ve been holding on to my worthless paper notes waiting for that predicition to come true...

Fiat2Zero's picture

Actually robo-tard (hey, BTW, where the hell is your bitch Ning?)

Actually, I think everyone realizes that JPM needs to keep the PMs below a certain point.  Everyone is buying the dip, and trading the high point.  Just more free money coming to us from JPM.  Crumbs from the master's table, but delicious crumbs nonetheless.

It's just another way your stupid fucking masters are losing at their own game.  They are stuck with no way out.

Enjoy hell bitch.

TruthInSunshine's picture

What has Bernankincide and his fellow felons done for the use of the word 'transitory,' which yet again shows up in another comment by a Fed minion?

NotApplicable's picture

But ES will still close green, right?

Summarizing Hilsenrath, "You are getting sleepy. You are getting very, very sleepy... This is not the 'The Bernank' you are looking for. He can go about his business. Move along."

slewie the pi-rat's picture

from the batmobile full of FRNs for banksters, batmanke's speech will focus on the strength of the dollar.  don't laugh.  i'm putting the over/under @ 7 mentions of a strong dollar, dollar support, the strength of the dollar, and so on. 

the perception of inflation, you see,...blahblahblahblahfukingblah. 

mfoste1's picture

excerpt from an interview with Debra LaBarbera PR FRBNY....


Me: Thank you very much for your reply! Only one of my initial questions remains.  Can the Federal Reserve lawfully purchase or sell Treasuries directly with the US government - ie not involve the primary dealers? Has this ever happened before in the history of the Federal Reserve?

LaBarbera: Yes, when proceeds are reinvested, the auctions are directly with the Treasury not primary dealers.

Ok so why is the fed buying bonds from primary dealers( large WS banks) who reap millions in profits every day from these activites, instead of purchasing them from the treasury directly and reinvesting in the treasury?! Blatant theft....PEOPLE HAVE A RIGHT TO AN EXPLANATION!!!!

slaughterer's picture

"...the S&P will have to drop at least another 25%..."

Yes, that is correct.

hugovanderbubble's picture

ask,,,,the bots,,,,,algos to press sell key

slaughterer's picture





(Short the f*ing pops)

An E-Trade baby could do it!

SheepDog-One's picture

Whats Ben going to talk about, his weiner?

PaperBear's picture

"recovery remains intact" ?

That is until he says recovery is NOT intact.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Recovery remains intact'....hmmm could be a play on words have to dissect this very carefully. 'The recovery remains are intact', like a skeleton may remain intact, until the next breeze crumbles it. 

PaperBear's picture

Yep our overlords miss out words to confuse us.

Cdad's picture

Pixie Dust Ferry wings remain intact.  The recovery, and mercilessly so, remains intact...along with Unicorn futures.  

Gay fashion technical support [for assless chaps and $30 t-shirts], on the other hand, does not remain intact...even though the abomination of the ETF world, the XRT, is intact this morning [dissonance that no one can see coming].  Arbitrage and equity vomiting into the gaping maws of ETFs as a method of wealth creation for criminal syndicate bankers...intact.

ETF holders...soon to be anything but intact.



mogul rider's picture

Wow - first you all were QE3 guaranteer's now you're pumping the opposite

Make up your mind people. Or better yet, stop BS'ing - you all were yakking how it was guaranteed.You people are bullshitters - period

Pumping trolls never stop do you!

baby_BLYTHE's picture

without QE3, the market will tank hard.

Where is all the money going to come from to flow into stocks?, we're all broke here in the US!

kito's picture

corporations are not broke. cash rich as ever. youre deluded to think the market will tank hard this year.

baby_BLYTHE's picture

so QE(s) worked? we're saved?

kito's picture

irrelevant to my point--which is that the stock market has no cause to plunge. it may shed a few more pounds, but corporations are not loaded with debt and cost cutting has been so steep, they are swimming in cash. 

Fiat2Zero's picture

The reason they are cash rich, you smiling moron, is that they are not reinvesting their money in the phony, teleprompter staged recovery.

They don't believe it's real.

They're keeping their powder dry for the next credit crunch, and/or asset fire sale.

Speaking of keeping powder dry, a little less cocaine will make that grin a tad less conspicuous.

kito's picture

oooh sticks and i said, market wont crash anytime soon. it has enough of its own legs.

Fiat2Zero's picture

Touche.  I'll say one thing, you've got thicker skin than the other paid shills on this thread.

Looks like JPM is starting to pay a little bit more to get "quality".

BTW, no one is predicting a crash, just a slow deflation (like the houses that just keep going down, down, down).

kito's picture

maybe you should read this and every other post/comments again. zh and everybody and their mother on this site feels there will be an imminent market crash, followed by the implementation of qe3. i disagree. i DONT disagree that our city of ice is sitting on a sheet 1/2 inch thick, but it doesnt stem from corporate vulnerabilities. my vote is no crash and no qe this year.

Fiat2Zero's picture

Not true. There are a lot of nuances on ZH. Yes, a majority probably believe that QE3 is coming, sometime. We just don't know what the hell it will be called, what form it will take, how big it will be, what the timing is, or what will be the trigger that gives Bernanke formal diplomatic cover.

While there are a lot of people that have said July 1st, the market will tank, there are just as many saying we'll have a slow decline, with the Treasury doing some sort of hijinks.

Corporate vulnerability is just one factor influencing the stock market. The stock market is about the future, and if companies are hoarding cash, and the GDP projections are being steadily revised lower (by MSM, Tyler and crew have been predicting this correctly for many months now), then this portends badly. Of course if the S&P is constantly judged on nominal terms, and we are printing money all the time, then it can be a big success (nominally) but a huge failure in real terms. Zimbabwe had a balls-out success in its stock market in nominal terms. Repriced in real money, like gold, the S&P is clearly tanking.

Investor sentiment is super bearish now, so it's possible we'll get a counter-rally. Nothing goes down in a straight line.

But the trend, my man, the trend is down. You can hear the hiss coming out of the balloon. The only thing propping us up is the fact that Europe is on the verge of "The French Revolution 2.0," and Japan is lining up their seniors to go into the hot zone and work directly on the Fukushima cores.

Yes, corporations are doing pretty well. But it'll be hard for them to survive without oxygen (i.e. cheap credit). Oh also rising input prices (inflation). Oh also persistently high unemployment (demand destruction).

It's the slow hiss...

tickhound's picture

I'm in agreement, to some degree, that the last thing this economy (central planning) needs is a shakeout of any remaining retail investors that haven't already run to cd's and money markets... But,

You're naive if you believe this thing is standing on "its own legs."