- advertisements -
"blowout" has a bad connotation now.
I did a forensic analysis of the ML holdings here. Not only did BlackRock illegally acquire at least one non-Agency CMO (of JPM vintage, no less), the intra-quarter valuations were found to be truly Madoff-like.
Not even the flash crash fazed 'ol MLI.
This is going to be even more 'profitable' for taxpayers than TARP! Give it a chance. It could happen....what? Why is everyone looking at me like that?
Slightly OT, but has this document been posted at ZH before. I can't keep up with everything so maybe it has and I missed it. Quite an interesting read.
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.
Supposed you printed money and nobody wanted to spend?
Psh. I'd spend it on acquiring majority ownership of bankrupt auto companies, residential mortgage debt with no chance of repayment, CDOs packed with all kinds of crap (I don't care), ownership of a bankrupt insurance company, the downside of a portfolio book of a bankrupt investment bank, maybe spread out into currencies of bankrupt countries, Red Roof Inn stock. Man, I'll bet my spending spree is so expensive I'll need more and more money as I go.
Bingo. The Fed has an enormous supply of places to spend money, anything on Earth that is for sale. If needs be the Fed can go in and bid on EVERYTHING.
If the Fed buys everything, because no one else will, then China can take over the United States simply by buying the Fed - through a front company, of course.
GS is already working on the CDS on the LBO paper. Can they sell those to the Feral Reserve?
Can't wait til they start bidding on gold. They've got to want something of value on their balance sheet eventually... right?
"unaudited" balance sheet = fed don't care
maiden lane i = $28 billion = fed don't care
blackrock in charge = fed don't care
They may be thinking of taking yours away first, after being short.
Then buying every hedge on the long side, before exchanging fiat paper currencies for physical gold, silver and other PM and strategic minerals/metals.
There are probably some moves we haven't considered since we're not in the thick of it.
Thats it? Why do we need a Fed then. Just institute a policy printing dollars whenever deflation threatens. A computer program could do it.
Couldnt they shorten the PHD requirements for economics to a 40 hour course, defining inflation and deflation and how many dollars to print to keep a balance?
Bernake would be like a medical doctor with 12 years training who prescribed the same pill for every diagnosis.
Let that SOB keep painting himself into a corner, if economic ruin is what it takes to get rid of the either incredibly blind or corrupt Fed, at least future generations might realize the USAs potential.
From the industrial giant of the world, rich in resources, to a bizzare mess where college grads are paid NOT to work with UE benifits of over a year the new normal.
If the benefits run out, the efficient allocation of all those billions in grants will result in a degreed person working a mediocre service job.
What a goddamn joke, Ive seen this country seriously go downhill in the last decade, under the 2 party system.
What the Fed dosent realize is that deficits dont matter sure, until they do, and then then we are buried in absurd debt with no non-draconian options.
(rant off) Full disclosure: Im a skilled electronics tech on UE myself, due to downsizing, and in another month my career will go from diagnosing and repairing high tech equipment to saying "you want fries with that?", if things dont turn up.
What an oxymoron from a corrupt puppet of a bankers’ counterfeiting cabal engaged in stealing quadrillions in wealth from the people and transferring the stolen loot to the international bankers:
But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.
No cost? This is not only robbery in terms of confiscated goods and services, it is economic tyranny—i.e., slavery.
bernanke's arrogance will be his undoing. he is basing an unprecedented expansion of monetary policy on a simplistic and intellectually bankrupt premise. his lack of respect for markets is breathtaking. history will be unkind to chairman bernanke.
Turn the Fed into a museum!!! Turn the Fed into a museum!!!
As the cost to roll and retain these hedges is negligible, especially since taxpayers are paying the cost of carry, this kind of lack of fiduciary prudence is cause for alarm. Either the Fed is convinced there is no chance in hell rates will ever go higher, or it is perfectly happy to risk impairing a $28 billion portfolio from a spike in interest rates.
I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next ZHer, but, I'm going with a lack of fiduciary prudence. It's been this lack all along, why start suspecting anything different now?
Ever think that perhaps"lack of fiduciary prudence" is exactly what you are supposed to think?
As long as you reach for the same explanation it stops one from suspecting that something different is going on. And thus stops one from questioning what the hell the Fed is doing here. Just saying.
1B DV01; Jesus; market moves a bit and you're suddenly 50B in the hole.*
disclaimer: this is meant only to be considered as humor and not as a factual statement regarding FED loses on the underlying assets it holds on its balance sheet. So dont fume bitches.
... fume ....
CB, should amend disclaimer to state: "not as a factual statement regarding FED loses on the underlying assets it holds on its balance sheet, YET".
I have no idea how much they paid for all that agency MBS and ABS garbage; but if they paid par [maybe even more; the prices of that paper now are ridiculous; something like 104.xx fucking LMAO] any change in the interest rate policy [meaning an increase] of only 25 bps would ass rape them like Ron Jeremy on meth. Hence hovering just above 0 with a large chance we will actually have 0% interest rate in the future.
What business does the Fed have buying any interest rate hedges or swaps?
no squid left behind policy. duh.
Is this indirect evidence that the Fed is continuously manipulating rate markets in a fashion that removes any uncertainty about widening?
You better believe it. Some asset values are really difficult to goose (e.g., real estate), but when it comes to interest rates, the Fed is playing on its home turf. They have the means, they have the motive, and they have the opportunity -- so guess what: they will because they can. Plus, they already paid the political price for this strategy: savers have whined, are whining, and will continue to whine. So if the Fed fucks them over a little harder, it hardly matters. TYX punched through the October lows (3.88) today, and then bounced back to close just above. I expect profit-taking in the long end near term, then a test of support for 30-yr. yield at 3.40, and eventually a flirtation with one handle. We have the Japanese disease -- get used to it.
its not "so" much Fed manipulation as it is clearly viewed by the Fed that the monster of deflation will persist for a while and there is no fear of interest rate spike...
It is a strange state of affairs when you print money, steal half of it, and use the other half to manipulate the market in order to make it appear as though no more money is being printed.
I'm still trying to figure out why fiat is worth more than assets today. Deflation seems a tad stubborn.
Maybe the Fed is just trying to throw off the Russian financial spies.
What happens when all the middle class owners of 401Ks wake up and realize that they've been had?
Answer: they beg for the microchip, which the oligarchy will claim will save their Social Security
Please DON"T PUT GARBAGE in the FEDERAL RESERVE
Dear Mr. Bernanke:
I was afraid that if simply wrote you this letter you might never see it. I thought this message was important and worthy of effort to attract your attention.
I am sure that you are hearing from the Wall Street crowd about how stupid the marketplace is because the market won't buy all the great loans that Wall Street has produced and how stupid or illiquid the market is because AAA RMBS are being offered at 60 cents on the dollar with no takers. First mortgage syndicated bank loans are offered for 70 cents on the dollar and Wall Street simply cannot believe buyers aren't standing in line to buy.
Consider for a moment that many corporate bonds are trading at premiums above par value. How can this be? If the market is so stupid and there is no liquidity, who is buying those good corporate bonds at 105 cents on the dollar??
Many AAA mortgage bonds are actually extremely high risk because of little-considered nuances in the hundreds of pages of trust indentures and servicing agreements. In addition to widely understood mortgage default and other concerns, these contracts permit the loan servicers to advance payments on behalf of defaulted homeowners for years and years and years at interest rates of 12% and more. These "servicer advancements" put funds back into the trust to be paid out to junior security holders. The "servicer advances" are subsequently repaid FIRST from foreclosed home sales. Therefore, foreclosed home sales may result in little or no proceeds, or even a liability, to the AAAs. This mechanism effectively transfers funds that really should belong to the AAA securities to junior securities. Servicers that own junior securities are incredibly motivated to drag their feet resolving defaulted loans, which results in great loss to the AAA holders. This is not a misprint: Defaulted first mortgage home loans may become a net liability, not an asset, to some of the AAAs. This is still not widely understood.
Simlarly, "first mortgage syndicated bank loans" issued since about 2004 are routinely garbage and not traditional first mortgages on anything determinable at all. Many, if not most, of these loans permit the borrowers to sell the collateral, keep the money, and reinvest in almost anything they want to, including stock, junk bonds, defaulted loans, or perhaps ice cream cones. Many, if not most, of these syndicated bank loans also permit UNLIMITED amounts of additional swap debt that is either senior to or of equal priority with the syndicated loan. These provisions are also not widely understood and are sometimes even disguised in the loan documents.
Falling prices for these type assets reflect people finally reading the hundreds of pages of fine print, not a problem with the marketplace. Prices should continue to fall as people wake up to the true nature of these assets. Many "last out" AAA RMBS are still overvalued at 60% of par. Many first mortgage syndicated bank loans are overvalued at 70% of par. Smart buyers won't touch any of this garbage at any price remotely close to what it originally sold for.
The Fed may be walking on very slippery ground. My fear is that the Fed has little more undersanding of the stench of the garbage than many of the current owners who bought all these debt instruments issued about 2004.
Is the US Government taking some of this garbage on its balance sheet as collateral for Federal Reserve loans? The AAA rating means absolutely nothing. Garbage is garbage even in a fancy wrapper that the ratings agencies love.
I do not pretend to know how the Fed is collateralizing loans. Perhaps I am naive in underestimating the insightfulness of the Feb, but many intelligent people were caught up in complacent decisions involving these assets. I know nothing more than what I read in the media about collateral for these Fed loans, but it sure sounds troubling.
Comrades - Andy Beal wrote this letter in March 08. I don't know what garbage is on the Fed's balance sheet. Chances are they don't either.
Amazing. I have been on the front end of mortgage origination for 25 years - I thought those on the back end were the smart ones. They're just coming around to what's stipulated in the provisions?" They don't understand?
"Chances are they don't either."
Chances are, they don't care. Specifically, B.S. Bernutty doesn't care. He's running these assets to align with his discertation on preventing the next great depression. He's willingly let a wooden horse full of angry Greeks into the Feral's vaults, because Hubris has him in her deadly grip.
My two cents.
By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. - Bernanke
Quote is from my first post at the top. If the Fed buys stuff at the original full value, when the actual value is zero, isn't that the same as printing money per the quote above? And, per the quote above, doesn't doing this in effect restore the value of the asset to 100%? At least in the minds of the Fed?
UMMMM they are taking the hedges off cause its the FED and I think they might know when rates are going to do something... Call me crazy.
OMG thank you for the refreshing wisp of sanity. Can you imagine the Zero IQ vitriol if the Fed actually went into the derivatives market and hedged oscillations in short term rates. If they profited, they'd be accused of the greatest insider trade since Hillary cornered the cattle futures market; if they expired worthless, they'd be accused of pissing away even more taxpayer money, hedging the notional value of nationalized assets against nationally known notional risk. What we really should be investigating is how the Fed funneled money to the solar panel industry, so they could engineer the BP spill, thereby diverting attention from the mortgage crisis.
I hope to Krishna this is a joke
The Fed. Fucking with our money since 1913. I know I've just about had enough, what say you?
Someonevhas organized a vuvuzela protest at BP headquarters in London.
Perhaps ZH should organize a Vuvuzela blowout at the NY Fed.
Great idea ! I'd fly across the country and blow the vuvuzela out of my ass.
It is all to protect the massive "leach" banking system. They push money out the door, give it to the banks and instruct them NOT to lend while they tell the public that they "care very much about small/medium biz getting loans to fix unemployment". They need rates low for the massive debt rolls...and so the banks can try to repair their balance sheets. They must know the market is going to roll over. F, they are probably engineering it. Despite all their rhetoric of wanting to inflate the economy, with all of the crap on their balance sheet and the Massive Roll, they have to want deflation, no?
Of course, all bets are off when the country finally gets its debt rating cut...
I find the lack of interest rate hedges with Maiden Lane I very facinating as well, and I'm glad Tyler and others are thinking through this.
Endless money printing, if anything, raises the spectre of future rate increases. The Fed may well money print, but only if similar behavior is going on just about everywhere else.
I think the Fed is confident in letting go of these hedges because they see (and can partially control) the conditions of a global flight to quality into Treasuries. With Europe teetering daily into financial crisis and massive funding needs at the U.S. Treasury still not fulfilled-- the Fed doesn't need to do too much to attract global assets at a 2% 10-year yield. It takes a whole lot more work to create inflation when everything globally (debt) is deflating around you.
Of course, that means deflationary forces will take centerstage again and global stock markets will tank (were looking over the edge right now). But all this will be temporary... for the huddled masses in the US will be begging for more reflation before Ben comes in to save the world with $5 trillion of QE 2.0 by 2011.
But, for now, I think the Fed sees an opportunity at hand and will force a lot of shellacked equity holders into Timmy's Brand Stinking New Notes and Bills.
As an advance, Timmy thanks you for your business.
Certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration. Thanks windows vps | cheap vps | cheap hosting | forex vps
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertise With Us
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
How to report offensive comments
Notice on Racial Discrimination.