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Federal Reserve Accounts For 50% Of Q2 Treasury Purchases

Tyler Durden's picture


The degree of intermediation by the Federal Reserve in the issuance of US Treasuries hit a record in Q2, accounting for just under 50% of all net UST issuance absorption. This is a startling number, as the Fed's $164 billion in Q2 Treasury purchases dwarfs the combined foreign/household UST purchases of $101 billion and $29 billion, respectively, over the same time period. In fact, the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases.

This dramatic imbalance puts a lot of question marks over how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up, now that QE only has $15 billion of capacity for USTs: with Households lapping up risky assets it is unlikely they will look at Treasuries absent some dramatic downward move in equities, while Foreign purchasers, which many speculate are in a game of Mutual Assured Destruction regarding UST purchases, have in fact been aggressively lowering their purchases of Treasuries (from $159 billion in Q1 to $101 billion in Q2, an almost 40% decline in appetite!). Will the US make these purchases much more attractive come October when QE for USTs ends? And if so, what kind of rates are we talking about? One thing is certain: in terms of priorities of the Federal Reserve, keeping the equity market buoyant, is a distant second to ensuring successful auction after auction well into 2010. After all there is near $9 trillion in budget deficits that need financing over the next 10 years.

From Morgan Stanley:

Flow of funds: The Fed also released its flow of funds data for Q2 on September 17. The main points are that:

  • Households reduced Q2 Treasury purchases from their blistering pace in Q1
  • Foreign accounts reduced Q2 UST purchases as the Fed ramped up Q/E ops
  • Bank Q2 purchases remained anemic despite the fall in other lending options
  • Broker/dealer purchases were high but not sustainable, expect Q3 moderation


Households out…The salient points here include confirmation that the ‘households’ bid for $377 billion Treasuries in Q1 was a one-time reallocation trade as this account took down a much smaller $29 billion in Q2. We were afraid that this flow would not be sustainable, as the ‘households’ category really includes non-profits and other organizations that simply performed a one-time reallocation trade out of risky assets after their horrid performance in Q4 of last year.

Fed nudges out foreign bid…What is a bit worrisome at first glance is the slowdown in Treasury purchases by ‘foreign’ accounts from $159 billion in Q1 to $101 billion in Q2. Part of this likely reflects the crowding out of foreign investors by the Fed’s Treasury QE program which bought $164 billion Treasuries in Q2 (or close to 50% of the quarter’s net issuance) after a mere $16 billion purchase in Q1.

We anticipate this crowding out to continue in the Q3 data but for foreign accounts to return in Q4 once the Fed’s program expires. Bank buying still not large enough…While ‘banks’ have been ramping up their Treasury holdings with the latest quarter-on-quarter increase of 11%, the corresponding notional amount of $14 billion is still a bit of a disappointment considering the lack of alternative investment opportunities (e.g., C&I loans, home equity lines and consumer lending have all decreased in Q2). In fact, the ‘broker/dealers’ category experienced a much larger increase of $28 billion in Q2. This is generally consistent with the trend we’ve seen in the primary dealer positioning data from the Fed in for the first half of 2009, when primary dealers were reducing their Treasury shorts as they were also reducing their riskier longs in order to bring down the size of their balance sheets. With broker/dealer balance sheets now closer to the right size, we anticipate the broker/dealer buying has slowed down in Q3.

All else equal, these are precisely the questions that keep the Chairman up at night. The answers should present themselves quote soon.


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Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:32 | 74964 etrader
etrader's picture

Steve keen highlights a possable way out.

We need a "reset button" of Debt right offs!

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:55 | 75049 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How about some bankruptcies and failures?

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 11:57 | 75373 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No gimmick likely to change the inevitable supercollider collision between irresistible debt defaults and immovable

Consider that not only are half of new T bond subscriptions
financed by Fed Funny Money and insolvent banks,
but half of all Treasuries are Intergovernmental IOUs
like agency FDIC FHA OPIC, PBGC Medicare Social
Security Trust borrowings, counted as assets,
when in fact there is no marketable asset

No wonder real estate IOUs took a tumble when
government IOUs superceded them.

When the final fit hits the shan,
people realize markets are no longer free,
but rigged by a fiscal house of deficit cards.
Then ammo, bonds, commodities, diamonds, gold,
platinum and silver stocks may not soar, but collapse as horrified people scramble to raise the scarcest commodity of all - survival cash in hand, pocketbook or home safe.

This time government cannot go off the gold standard.
The quadrupling of gold since 1999 warned us
what is coming here now:

higher real interest rates adjusted for deflation,
some 33% in real terms yer over year so far.

Looking at things monthly as Uncle and his agents do misses this generational turning point.
The last one 72 million died.
The ones who survived warned US to save for a rainy day.
Oh the rains of Fall are a comin' and the times they
are a changin'...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:34 | 74967 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Mr. Expert on depression hard at work fucking up the world.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:39 | 74969 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

As long as market pundits continue to sound the "bear market rally" and "market is topping" alarm, hedge funds, speculators, pension funds, etc. will be fleeing to Treasuries instantaneously upon the slightest hint that stocks are going back down.

That is why treasuires always start screaming higher any time the Dow declines more than 50 points.

The Perpetual Motion Machine continues unabated.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:56 | 74977 Anonymous
Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:02 | 74981 . . .
. . .'s picture

This chick and her hamster wheel are better.  And cautionary for Bernanke -- when the chick was doing a demonstratin, it suffered a blow out, with the boards falling off.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:45 | 75196 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You blokes should bloody well know a good hamster when you see one. Unless you've spent your lives on the breadlines.

Here's mummy an pops.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:16 | 74998 msorense
msorense's picture

Problem is that the market hasn't declined at all in the past 10 days yet treasury yeilds remain depressed.  This is an unstable condition.  Either the yeilds catch back up fast or the market tanks.  I'm betting on the latter once again.  Something's got to give.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:05 | 75095 phaesed
phaesed's picture


Debt deflation, the ultimate outcome.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:45 | 74971 River Tam
River Tam's picture

Rates have to rise to sell the debt.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:03 | 74982 deadhead
deadhead's picture

yes, all things being equal with the current (outrageously high) debt structure, rates would need to rise to sell debt, aka bond vigilantism.

however, if rates rise the (hoped for) us economic recovery is phucked and as for the huge housing component, that is phucked even harder.

I think TD hit it squarely in the intro: "One thing is certain: in terms of priorities of the Federal Reserve, keeping the equity market buoyant, is a distant second to ensuring successful auction after auction well into 2010."


Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:35 | 75191 bonddude
bonddude's picture

China apparently STILL has a voracious appetite.

Perhaps Hugh Hendry IS right about the bubble being the back up in yields.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 07:14 | 75252 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

china is NOT buying. europeans are NOT buying...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:52 | 74973 etrader
etrader's picture

With Bernake now living in a Minskian world while perceiving it through friedmaite eyes we've got problems!

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:58 | 74978 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Now I know this isn't the whole truth, I'm sure the tourist only got back 98% with a few brokers/investment banks involved.

Stimulus Explained

Imagine this scenario:

It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea. It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.

Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one.

The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.

The Butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower.

The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel.

The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that in these hard times, gave her "services" on credit.

The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there.

The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything.

At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town.

No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism ...

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how governments are doing business today.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:07 | 74986 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Me thinks someone will look at their payment terms
and hold onto that 100 euro note. That is the
definition of deflation. Let the courts take the
100 euro note from my cold dead hands.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 18:54 | 74988 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Points to remember about this economic scenario and its tidy 'solution' - 1: the original funds used by the shopkeeper were stolen (he didn't get permission to use it from the tourist) 2. Sure all the debts from the town are paid off.. But the economy isn't increasing and I'm assuming consumption remains the same.. Therefore this debt problem will happen again in the town.

Hmmm.. Stolen funds and an unfixed problem that will happen again.. Maybe it IS an accurate summary of the U.S. Situation.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:42 | 75016 monmick
monmick's picture

The hotel proprietor is out 100 Euro...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:29 | 75073 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You are correct. When the hooker pays him, she settles her debt. But the hotel proprietor must pay the $100 loand back to the wealthy tourist and is therefore out the $100 Euros. Very simple - it's just a trick (pardon the term) on words.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:08 | 75098 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

and with business so slow, you have to know he's going to rack the $100 'debt' up with the hooker again in no time. this town will soon need a hooker czar. spitzer perhaps?

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:23 | 75152 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

His liabilities were reduced by 100 euro

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:24 | 75109 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's a clever analogy.

Not to disparaged it's humor,

it fails however to consider that though the debt owed
was equal the labor required to earn that 100 Euro note was not. It is only possible in a monopoly where there is only one of each.

And it is the proprietor that bears the brunt of the disparity as the accommodations he provides in such a monopolistic endeavor provides no capital for upkeep and it's state of disrepair is evident by the disdain of his prospective customers and the fact that he has no money for meat while the butcher and the whore are busy as
rabbits ruining his sheets and the springs of
the mattress.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:54 | 75203 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Seems like each person in the town had $100 in debt but also had $100 in "Accounts Receivable"


Nothing changed.

Everyone (including the town itself) went from a balance of $0 to a new balance of $0.


So much for "Stimulus".

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 11:42 | 75355 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Rusty Shackleford is right. Everybody had a balance sheet of zero, everybody's short term accounts receivable = accounts payable.

This story only illustrates what can happen when there is not enough money (as a medium of exchange) in circulation.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:00 | 74980 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Only way out ---> Dollar devaluation

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:08 | 74987 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You will not have to wait that long...

Btw, Heard that Mugabe sends his regards to Bernanke for a job well done.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 17:03 | 74983 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Got Gold?

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:01 | 74992 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture


Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:08 | 74994 texpat
texpat's picture

Tyler, the QoQ delta shows that SOMA purchases rose more than foreign ones, but foreign buying still dwarfed monetization.

Am I reading the table correctly?

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:13 | 74996 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

"how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up, now that QE only has $15 billion of capacity for USTs..."

Perhaps some good old fashioned market panic might come in handy. And I'm sure it's going to be due to "deflation". Right.

"accounting for just under 50% of all net UST issuance absorption..."

Well, I wouldn't be so sure about that number now. The Fed/Treasury aren't exactly known for telling the truth.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:13 | 74997 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture












WTIC Crude


Natural Gas

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:32 | 75116 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Thanks for the charts, RT;

I believe the oil chart bears the most correlation to the Fed's intentions/activities. As long as the trend is sideways - in a trading range - the Fed will continue to crowd out other investors in Treasuries (others would step in @ higher, asset inflation driven yields). The dollar/oil peg is the one that matters.

I also believe if oil breaks $75 (upside) yields will take off. The issue will not be inflation but debt default. Default yields are a lot higher than inflation yields. A default will destroy the US government's 'full faith and credit'. It's a scary risk game that's being played by a washed up ex- college professor and the outcome is not going to be pretty, regardless of how this particular tactic works out.

For one thing, higher yields mean a lot of dirty laundry (bad loans) will bolt out of the closet and a lot of businesses will fail.

Andy Xie, who has as good a grip on current developments as anyone has been writing a lot of interesting material about the asset bubbles that never end.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:17 | 74999 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

it ought to be illegal for them to do this. how long can this continue? how long?

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:15 | 75065 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

All sovereign monetary policies are easy when one accepts the basic tenet: The people can be made to pay.

All books can be balanced. All debts paid. All parties made whole.

... as long as the common man picks up the tab.

It's all very orderly. Now bend over. The powers that be would like a turn with you.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:18 | 75000 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The bailouts stopped at the banks. Consumers are left to fend for themselves.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:20 | 75001 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The 890 billion YoY increase by foreign CB's is head fake. Sure the bought that, but dollar for dollar the sold Agency MDS back to the Fed. There is more of that to come, but it will end also. How the hell are we going to sell $9 trillion?

It seems like an impossible task.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:25 | 75006 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

so if the FED doesn't buy them, then we have a failure? is that about it? man, why don't they talk about stuff like this on CNBC? these americans simply do not know what is really going on.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:27 | 75007 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Attn:  Deflationists

Latest from Rasputin.


"Please forgive the length of this missive, but
there is a lot of material that must be presented in order to properly
make the case for what will happen next.

Below, please find a number of statistics and calculations
regarding the real estate collapse and attendant debt destruction,
followed by my conclusion as to what the Fed and Uncle Sugar have in
store to deal with this bust.

First, let's do a comparison between the peak housing bubble year
of 2006 and today (2009), starting with the number of units sold:

New home sales:

2006: 1.4 million units

2009: 400 thousand units

And here is a link to a graph of the horror, provided by Calculated Risk blog:

And it doesn't look much better for "existing" (translation: "used") McMansion sales either:

Existing (translation: used) home sales:

2006: 7.1 million units

2009: 5.1 million units

And here is the link, again courtesy of Calculated Risk:

Next, let's compare selling prices. I have culled these numbers from various sources and came up with an average price:

Average price per McMansion:

In 2006, approximately 220k fiatscos

In 2009, approximately 160k fiatscos

Now, let's total up and compare the two years (2006 and 2009) and see just what kind of damage we are facing:

Totals 2006:

Total new and used McMansions sold in 2006: 8.5 million units

Average price per McBox: 220k fiatscos

Total housing sales revenue, 2006: 1.87 TRILLION fiatscos.

Totals 2009:

Total new and used McMansions sold in 2009 (estimated): 5.5 million units

Average price per McBox: 160k fiatscos

Total housing sales revenue, 2009: 880 billion fiatscos.

Or a loss of approximately: 1 TRILLION fiatscos in revenue, per year.

(Ras): Ouch. One trillion in revenue wiped right off the map. Per
year. Not to mention all the peripheral industries related to housing
(such as home building, furniture, landscaping) that have been
decimated by this bust.

But wait, it gets better.

Now let's take a peek at how much housing "wealth" (equity) has
been destroyed in this epic bust. Based on the Case Shiller index drop
of house prices of approximately 30% so far, here are the stats:

Total number of McMansions, U.S.: approximately 100 million

Previous selling price: 220k fiatscos

Average loss per unit (in percent): 30%

Average new house price (rounded up): 160k

Total amount of housing "wealth" destroyed: approximately 6 TRILLION fiatscos

So, what's the big deal if "equity" has been dropping? Well, let's
take a gander at what the latest Federal Reserve "Flow of Funds" report
tells us about who is holding all the debt on these
rapidly-diminshing-in-price houses.

From Federal Reserve "Flow of funds":

Total GSE MBS/Ginnie MBS outstanding: 6.5 Trillion fiatscos

Total amount of R.E. loans banks hold: 4 trillion fiatscos

Total Real Estate debt held by GSEs/Banks: 10.4 trillion fiatscos

Total amount of destroyed debt (using 30% drop in R.E. prices): 3 trillion fiatscos.

So, at this point, according to my calculations, Uncle Sugar (via
Fannie, Freddie, FHLBs and Ginnie/FHA), the Fed and the banks are
sitting on MASSIVE losses on their real estate loan portfolios. As much
as three trillion fiatscos.

Plus all the trillions in derivatives bets based on ever-rising house prices, now gone bad.

So, given the complete devastation the housing bubble has wrought
on the banking and "shadow banking" system, it's no wonder that Uncle
Sugar and the Fed jumped in with both feet and literally
nationalized/monetized the whole mess.

In fact, according to Doug Noland's latest "Credit Bubble Bulletin", Uncle Sugar and the Fed are backstopping:


...of ALL mortgages in the U.S., and are underwriting approximately the same percentage of all new mortgages.

(Ras Conclusion): So, with trillions of fiatscos in losses
on the line, there is--and I say this in all sincerity--no, none, zip,
nada, alternative that Uncle Sugar and the Fed have but to try to
re-incite the housing bubble to its former glory.

Otherwise, Uncle and the Fed are going to eat that three trillion
in destroyed debt (either directly, or through their guarantees to the
banks and GSEs). Plus all the derivatives bets that need to be made
good (think "AIG pays off Goldman Sachs).

So, it's "Inflate or Die". The housing bubble must be reflated,
eight million homedebtors PER YEAR need to not only be able to sign off
on ever-increasing home debt, but also make the payments to Uncle Sugar
and the Fed. And those payments gotta come either from income (how
quaint!), or from "equity" extracted from ever-rising asset prices,
such as stocks and houses themselves.

Therefore, it is a matter of self-survival for our very government
that the stock markets and housing markets be re-skied...the U.S.
nightcrawler be damned. Because there is NO WAY that Uncle and the Fed
are going to swallow those kinds of losses.

The only alternative is to liquidate this whole mess, and not only
do tens and tens of millions of former homedebtors get thrown out into
the streets, and not only is the banking system totally destroyed, but
so too are Uncle Sugar and the Fed, due to their taking on the enormous
exposure to real estate that they have.

And, given all the programs, schemes, scams, monetizations,
nationalizations and other proppage that Uncle Sugar and the Fed have
undertaken to date, they obviously have NO INTENTION of voluntarily
liquidating this mess, but rather on inflating our way out of it.

And forget our foreign debt-enablers. The Fed will be buying each
and every mortgage MBS generated by the GSEs and Uncle Sugar will
continue to pump mortgages through FHA/Ginnie until they accomplish
their goals to re-ignite the real estate bubble.

So, "Inflate or Die" it is.

Or probably more accurately: "Inflate AND die".

Summary of "Fiatco Flinging YTD":

Federal Programs and Initiatives announced and/or distributed:

Date Federal Reserve Amount Entity

August 9, 2007 Temporary Reserves1 $24,000,000,000 FRB

August 11, 2007 Temporary Reserves2 $ 38,000,000,000 FRBNY

September 6, 2007 Temporary Reserves3 $ 31,250,000,000 FRB

March 7, 2008 Single Tranche Repurchase Agreements4 $ 80,000,000,000 FRB

March 11, 2008 Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF)5 $ 200,000,000,000 FRBNY

March 14, 2008 JPMorgan, Bear Stearns bridge loan6 $ 12,900,000,000 FRBNY

M h16 N tP tf li M id L B St )7 March 16, 2008 Net Portfolio Maiden Lane LLC (Bear Stearns)$ 29 816 000 000 FRBNY

29,816,000,000 March 16, 2008 Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) (as of 10/01/2008)8 $ 147,692,000,000 FRBNY

June 18, 2008 Tri‐Party Repurchase Agreements9 $ 124,643,000,000 FRB

August 8, 2008 Term Securities Lending Facility Options Program (TOP)10 $ 50,000,000,000 FRBNY

September 19, 2008 Asset‐Backed Commercial Paper Money
Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) (as of 10/08/2008)11 $
145,890,000,000 FRB

Sept 17 2008 JPM transaction12 Sept. 14/17, Chase/Lehman Brothers $ 138 000 000 000 FRB

138,000,000,000 Sept. 15‐18, 2008 Open Market Operations13 $ 125,000,000,000 FRB

September 29, 2008 Foreign Central Bank Currency Liquidity Swaps14 $ 755,000,000,000 FRB

October 6, 2008 Term Auction Facility (TAF)15 $ 900,000,000,000 FRB

October 7, 2008 Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC (CPFF)16 $ 1,800,000,000,000 FRBNY

October 21, 2008 Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF)17
(total: $600 bln, Fed provides 90% of financing, $540 bln) $
540,000,000,000 FRBNY

as of Oct. 29, 2008 Primary Credit18 $ 111,946,000,000 FRB

March 3, 2009 Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)(created 11/25/08, extended 3/3/09)19 $ 1,000,000,000,000 FRBNY

October 8, 2008 AIG Securities Lending Facility20 $ 37,800,000,000 FRBNY

November 10, 2008 AIG Credit21 $ 60,000,000,000 FRBNY

November 10, 2008 Maiden Lane II LLC (22 AIG) $ 22,500,000,000 FRBNY

November 10, 2008 Maiden Lane III LLC (AIG)23 $ 30,000,000,000 FRBNY

November 25, 2008 MBS Program24 $ 500,000,000,000 FRB

November 25, 2008 GSE Program25 $ 100,000,000,000 FRB

March 2, 2009 Loan to AIG's Life Insurance Subsidiaries26 $ 8,500,000,000 FRBNY

Preferred Stock Interests27 March 2, 2009 $ 26,000,000,000 FRBNY

March 18, 2009 Additional MBS28 $ 750,000,000,000 FRB

March 18, 2009 Agency debt purchase29 $ 100,000,000,000 FRB

March 18, 2009 Treasury Purchase Program (TPP)30 $ 300,000,000,000 FRB

as of July 27, 2009 Expansion of System Open Market Account (SOMA) Securities Lending31 $ 36,000,000,000 FRBNY

Subtotal: $ 8,224,937,000,000

March 17, 2008 JPMorgan, Bear Stearns bridge loan repaid32 $ (12,900,000,000) FRBNY

Sept. 14/17, 2008 JPM Chase/Lehman Brothers transaction33 $ (138,000,000,000) FRB

November 10, 2008 AIG Securities Lending Facility repaid and terminated34 $ (37,800,000,000) FRBNY

March 2, 2009 AIG's $60 b Credit reduced to $25 b35 $ (35,000,000,000) FRBNY

Total: $8,036,237,000,000

Date Department of the Treasury Amount

February 13, 2008 Stimulus Package36 $ 168,000,000,000

September 7 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backup GSE Preferred Stock
Purchase Agreements (PSPA) 37 7, 2008 backup, $ 200,000,000,000

September 17, 2008 Supplementary Financing Program to provide cash to the Federal Reserve (SFP)38 $ 260,000,000,000

September 19, 2008 Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)39 $ 50,000,000,000

October 3, 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)40 $ 700,000,000,000

October 7, 2008 Special Deposit to FRBNY for Commercial Paper Funding Facility LLC (CPFF)41 $ 50,000,000,000

February 17, Act42 2009 Recovery Act $ 787,000,000,000

February 18, 2009 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac backup, GSE Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPA)43 $ 200,000,000,000

May 18, 2009 Potential International Fund Liabilities44 $ 100,000,000,000

July 21, 2009 Money Market Mutual Fund (MMMF) Program (as of Q1 2009)45 $ 3,738,700,000,000

July 21, 2009 GSE MBS Purchase Program46 $ 314,000,000,000

July 21, 2009 GSE Credit Facility Program47 y , y g $ 25,000,000,000

July 21, 2009 Tax Benefits and Community Development Block Grant (CDBG)48 $ 19,000,000,000

July 21, 2009 Student Loan Purchases, and Asset‐Backed Commercial Paper Conduits49 $ 195,000,000,000

Subtotal: $ 6,806,700,000,000

Date Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Amount

October 14, 2008

Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program (TLGP)50 sum announced, see below (not counting towards the

total) [1,400,000,000,000]

December 31, 2008 Enhanced Deposit Insurance (to $250K/account)51 $ 700,000,000,000

March 16, 2009 Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program‐Debt Guarantees (TLGP ‐ DGP)52 $ 940,000,000,000

June 16 2009 Program Program 53 16, Temporary Liquidity Guarantee
Program‐Transaction Account Guarantee (TLGP ‐
TAG)*$ 684 000 000 000 684,000,000,000

Subtotal: $ 2,324,000,000,000

Date Joint Programs Amount

November 23, 2008 Citigroup asset guarantee54 $ 301,000,000,000

January 16, 2009 Bank of America asset guarantee (see footnote)55 $ [118,000,000,000]

February 10, 2009 Public‐Private Investment Fund ($500
billion with a maximum potential of $1 trillion)56 $ 1,000,000,000,000

Subtotal: $ 1,301,000,000,000

Date Federal Housing Administration Amount

30 2008 FHA57 July 30, Hope for Homeowners FHA $ 300,000,000,000

Date Other Federal Housing and Financial System Support Amount

November 7, 2008 Increase in Guarantees by Government National Assoc. (58 Mortgage GNMA) $ 149,200,000,000

November 17, 2008 Increase in Guarantees by Federal Housing Authority (FHA)59 $ 134,500,000,000

January 7, 2009

NCUA Homeowners Affordability Relief Program (HARP) and Credit Union System Investment Program (CU

SIP) ($8.4 bln as of 6/30/08) potential:60 $ 41,000,000,000

March 31, 2009

National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) Temporary Corporate Credit Union Liquidity Guarantee

Program (TCCULGP)61 $ 15,200,000,000

I i G b D f V Aff i 62 Increase in Guarantees by Dept. of Veterans Affairs (VA)$ 10,600,000,000

Subtotal: $ 350,500,000,000

Total: $ 19,307,137,000,000

Date Implied Guarantees Amount

December 10, 2008 FHFA—Fannie Mae/Freddie Conservatorship63 $ 5,500,000,000,000

Obligations that have been viewed as enjoying an “implied” guarantee:

Mac Conservatorship December 10, 2008 FHFA—Implied Guarantee of FHLB liabilities64 $ 1,300,000,000,000

Total: $ 6,800,000,000,000

Total potential support including implied guarantees: $ 26,107,137,000,000

(Source: "Bailout Tally Report"

by Nomi Prins and Krisztina Ugrin)

...or why the Fed would accept such horrid, toxic "collateral" as this list below?:

Cabela’s Credit Card Master Note Trust

CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2009-1

Chase Issuance Trust

Citibank Credit Card Issuance Trust

CNH Equipment Trust 2009-B

Ford Credit Auto Owner Trust

GE Capital Credit Card Master Note Trust

Harley-Davidson Motorcycle Trust 2009-1

Honda Auto Receivables 2009-2 Owner Trust

Huntington Auto Trust 2009-1

MMCA Auto Owner Trust 2009-A

Nissan Auto Receivables 2009-A Owner Trust

SLM Private Education Loan Trust 2009-B

Small Business Administration Participation Certificates

Volkswagen Auto Lease Trust 2009-A

World Financial Network Credit Card Master Note Trust

World Omni Auto Receivables Trust 2009-A

...under just ONE of their many alphabet-soup programs (and the
Fed won't even disclose the even more toxic trash on which they are

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:37 | 75014 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

So, "Inflate or Die" it is. 

Well, the problem is that it is just "Die" no matter what.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:49 | 75019 djchill2
djchill2's picture

so....what is the right move?  The truth is, I don' t think anyone really knows because this kind of self-destruction is really without precedence given that we still hold the world's reserve currency.  However, I still think that the only real protection for those of us in the US is to get physical gold and silver....ammo...guns...ect...I hate to be so "end of the worldish" but please feel free to pipe up with a better idea if you have one.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:40 | 75041 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

I'm hedging - just purchased a Remington 870 Express Tactical 12 Guage and a Stag Arms AR 15 style assault rifle.  My timing looks to be good, too, as the the price/availability of ammo is much improved over last year.  Well, that's my contribution to ZH today.  Take care.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:06 | 75096 Charley
Charley's picture

"The truth is, I don' t think anyone really knows because this kind of self-destruction is really without precedence given that we still hold the world's reserve currency."

This could only have happened to the nation holding the world's  reserve currency. Anyone else would have been told to bugger off.

Giving a democracy the world reserve currency status was like giving a crack head the winning ticket in a lottery...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:07 | 75139 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Once China dumps its dollars, secures enough gold, it will tell the USA to "bugger off", and maybe with a mushroom cloud for effect.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:08 | 75140 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

so so so true....

sound economics teaches morality which means
that reward and punishment are meted out without
respect to persons...

however, in true spoiled baby boomer fashion
risk and reward are decreed away as barbaric
atavisms of a simpler people....and also as a
means of pandering to sheeple....

the village idiot is smarter than the princton
phd holder selling snake oil at the fed....

hard money and hard money only! (gold).

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:17 | 75067 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

No. "Inflate or Try" it is.

...and to quote the great Dune:

"They tried and failed?"
"No. They tried and died"

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:12 | 75060 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

RobotTrader, this is an awesome post. Thanks for sharing..
These are really scary times...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:17 | 75106 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

--George Orwell

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:39 | 75122 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I'll grant you it's not pretty or clever or even sane when all of the other government initiatives being debated are considered, but:

"Public debt in 1860 totaled $64.8 million (the annual budget of the federal government at the time was $63.1 million)....

By the end of 1865, interest-bearing public debt stood at $2.2 billion, but the union had been preserved."

They didn't even have electricity in 1865 yet I bet they didn't pull their hair out while sitting in the outhouse wondering if they should spare a square for possible use as future currency!

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:51 | 75131 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

There are other financial industry losses that are off balance sheet, including those on the 'Too Big To Fail' Fed's. Yeah, the Fed is just another lousy, stinkin' bank.

It's hard to 'get one's head around' the Fed cranking out trillions and having them do ... what, exactly? Inflation ... ? Yes, but only in certain asset classes such as bonds and stocks. Some leaks into shadow banking and derivatives (heaven help us all if short term rates increase suddenly considering the exposure of banks to unbalanced short term interest rate swaps).

Oil prices paint the Fed into a corner. Oil @ $70 is an economy killer all by itself. Hey! It's working! Just look out the window! Our economy was built on $20 oil and the entire pricing structure requires cheap petroleum. $100 oil and the entire game is over in a heartbeat and the various initiatives listed upstairs are underwater. Not to mention all the customers for the 'real' US economy as well as the businesses that serve them.

I know how this boxing match is going to turn out. One one hand is the collective imagination of the government/establishment/banking business and their ability to manufacture unlimitied amounts of credit out of thin air. On the other is the 2d law of thermodynamics. Who (or what) is going to win?


The hearts and hopes of a nation ride on the efforts of the Federal Reserve Bank and Benjamin Bernanke!


I'll bet on nature, thank you. Entropy always wins.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 17:24 | 75700 Chumly
Chumly's picture

Entropy always wins!  Negative MPD was the main act in the center ring and it exited this circus a long time ago (relatively speaking).  The rest is a side show; The more the audience watches the remaining freak sideshows the more they'll realize they paid too much for their ticket.

And, ohhhhh the irony of the USG bureaucats now pursuing additional revenues in the form heavy fines from people selling cheap lead-laden crap from China at garage sales - cheap crap purchased with their cheap fiat crap!!!


Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:33 | 75159 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Given all of this pump the junk action and all we have seen thus far are enfeebled markets and continuing implosion of key asset groups I am still reminded that the actions of the central banks, governments and banking systems is akin to a farmer from western Kansas attempting to keep their small family private plot alive during the dust bowl and numerous Black Blizzards. See this clip from about 6:30-7:15.  (With the action in the equities markets reminding me of the rabbit round-ups)

And what we have coming is akin to this clip.

The fed can attempt to reinflate their way back to stability all they want.  The fact remains that there needs to be a result in the current circumstance similar to the decent into and recovery from the dust bowl.  Everything else is a waste of time and resources.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:37 | 75013 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined"
Yikes. Dear Fed. Please. Stop trying to prevent me from panicking. It's not working. And you're flushing good money after bad.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:53 | 75020 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

$112 bill in tresury debt to sell this week.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:10 | 75141 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

But a keystroke. But the entire USA will pay upwards of $400 in purchasing power loss each.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:58 | 75023 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The black see example is nice. And it does show one fact,if the debt didn't have interest,then truly there is no harm done. But what about debt service(interest)?.In the cycle mentioned,there are four rounds. Each at 5% has generated about twenty Euro in interest that should payed by the recepients of debt, and that i missing from the calculation.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:06 | 75024 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"..Too many notes.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:07 | 75025 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The only alternative is to liquidate this whole mess, and not only do tens and tens of millions of former homedebtors get thrown out into the streets, and not only is the banking system totally destroyed, but so too are Uncle Sugar and the Fed, due to their taking on the enormous exposure to real estate that they have.

And that's not the worst of it. The worst of it is this: the core concepts of modern slavery, namely central banking and government control of the economy, are revealed as falsehoods tendered by idiots and liars. And this is the thing that must be avoided by them, at all costs, and the thing that we must clearly reveal.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:12 | 75142 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

slight correction: falsehoods tendered by liars,
yes; tendered by idiots, no.....

these wicked men know full well what they are
doing for slavery requires a cunning and
powerful perpetrator....

"i care not who makes a nation's laws so long as
i control its money."

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:35 | 75037 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Inflate or Die?

Or should it be inflate and die?

Interesting, but I see the current stock market pump as a way to get as many leg bills passed as fast as possible and bail out 401k baby boomers. Get it while you can.

Only way to lift home prices with current debt load is destroy the dollar, but that has huge ramifications...and still does not guarantee that anyone can get a loan to buy inflated real estate, nor does it create jobs to buy more, nor does it guarantee higher wages; more then likely price of needs go up and taxes go up and the funding mechanism collapses...inflate?.

Attempting to prop assets to a sustainable bubble peak will just result in a full on collapse in the USD and probably the bond market. This then would render the treasury un able to fund its obligations, interest rates would be astronomical with any kind of potential and or real default once the initial stage ends (without FED funding); making any future debt for the government extremely expensive (and loans).

The correct choice for the gov is still to throw all those under water under the bus if it does not reverse soon(hey, they tried), the bad banks fail, take the few trillion hit on the back stopped assets..CDS trigger, but as long as they keep the good banks running it will be all good...this would most likely stabilize/raise the dollar and send more into T's making new debt issuance cheaper with even lower interest rates as bad assets were purged and all assets deflate to levels that are reasonable for the current economic environment, those left able to pay in the system and in accordance with real supply and demand.

Deflation the gov survives, hyper inflation it will die. Extreme inflation that results in currency and bond market collapse are the things that end governments..deflation is tough time on most all, but should eventually come out stronger...I find it hard to believe that hyper inflation is what they will choose.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:17 | 75144 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Except who would borrow, who would lend, who would make the interest payments. Demand would crash further, and for generations. People would hoard in the extreme. The economy would be a wasteland.

When you defy the laws of nature and play froward with the economy of heaven, you create such a debt that can never be repaid. But must.

Utter and complete economic destruction due to shortsightedness, reliance on the whims of weak willed men, and the intrigues and conspiracies of plunderers.

Dance is complete. Pay the fiddler. NO?

Debtor's prison for you and all following generations until the uttermost farthing is restored. WITH INTEREST, mind you.

All the money in the world and your own private island cannot insulate you from what must come.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:54 | 75047 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Oh crap... I just got long.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:48 | 75083 lookma
lookma's picture

"I find it hard to believe that hyper inflation is what they will choose."

They may not have a choice. A collapsing eocnomy and declining tax receipts may leave them no choice but to print.  Deflation is not an alternative to a hyperinflation, it is what precedes (financial and monetary collapse) and causes a hyperinflation.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:58 | 75135 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

"Oh crap, I just got long"

Don't worry about it, the S&P has a lot of legs left. No disasters tomorrow. (Mebbe next week)

"I find it hard to believe that hyper inflation is what they will choose."

They ('They') cannot 'chose' hyperinflation. A) there is no velocity and no fractional lending, B) there is no 'fuel' for hyperinflation, that is, savings for the government to steal and C) the dollar/yuan peg means any US inflation goes either to assets in the US or is exported to China. With large savings, China is a better candidate for hyperinflation than the US. This is one reason why the Chinese government is allowing citizens there to buy gold (from vending machines!).

Mebbe we should hire the Chinese government for a few weeks and send our government to ... Bolivia?

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:15 | 75186 lookma
lookma's picture

Inflation and hyperinflation, despite the similarity in their names, are quite different phenomena. 

Lending, velocity, savings, and the relative inflationary policies of other nations are no bar to hyperinflation, nor do they really bear on the issue. 

Hyperinflation = currency collapse resulting from efforts to stem an economic/financial collapse (i.e deflation).

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:21 | 75147 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Do you think the Germans of the '20s were stupid people? Compared to today's generation of United Statesans?

Pleeze. They had no choice. And we face greater shortfall, more extreme official corruption, and more powerful means of money creation.

Game's over. Print it is. Hold on and kiss it all goodbye. You just don't know yet, IT'S ALREADY GONE. We just have to wait for the passage of time and the horrors through which we must pass.

Scales must be brought back to balance, it will be an awe full realignment.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:52 | 75087 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Well, if the Fed has been 50%  - an astonishing figure - and there is $100 billion + next week, and there's $15 billion left to spend, that leaves them $35b short.  Huh.  And don't talk about the next sale.

But of course, this has already been figured out.


Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:25 | 75153 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

You presume an honest of accounting and TPTB being held to the constraints of their promises.

Have you learned and seen nothing these past quarters?

There is no integrity, there is no restraint, there is no accountability.

The nation's politico/klepto-garchy have gone rogue. They are held back by no sense of integrity, leadership, responsibility, rule of law.

They will do what they do until the system is utterly bereft. Or people rise up to institute another form of gov't built after the sum of their national character.

I am not sanguine about that, having come to know the youth of the USA.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:59 | 75092 Mansoor_H_Khan
Mansoor_H_Khan's picture

I know most readers of Zero Hedge don't believe there is a way to resolve this mess in an orderly manner without lots of chaos that is.  Following is my idea. I believe it is do-able and practical.  The main theme is to minimize chaos and transition the current financial system to something sustainable.

Here is my idea:

1)  We essentially need an orderly bankruptcy and liquidation of the United States'  financial system.

2)   I suggest we create a government owned bank and transfer all deposits of the private commercial banking system to the new government owned bank.   This "transfer" is really just new money creation.  This new money will be digital cash (electronic version of physical paper cash).   Very much like reserves at the FED. 

3)  Note that the plan will not create net new money since we will be destroying all deposits of the commercial banking system in the process.

4)  All assets of the commercial banking system will be transferred to the government and auctioned off in an orderly manner over the next 10 years.  The proceeds from the sale would go the United States treasury and not the commercial banks.   The assumption here is that commercial banks deserve nothing since the entire industry would have been most likely destroyed any way.  Even good banks would have been destroyed due to bank runs and defaults if the government had allowed the dominoes to fall.   Of course bank shareholders, bank bond holders and counter parties of bank derivatives would not receive anything.

5)  After the transfer FDIC protection will be removed for any private bank which wishes to remain in business or any new private depository institution or bank.  From that point on the government should make it absolutely clear that there will be no more bailouts and no more conversions.  This will discourage (but not completely eliminate) fractional reserve deposit banking and private money creation that results from pyramiding of government created money.  This will also limit debasement of the currency that results from fractional reserve deposit banking.   In fact, we can have "free banking" from that point on and not even have reserve requirements or capital requirements.   All depositors who use private banks will be fully at-risk.  The industry will have to set the interest rate high enough to attract depositors.

6)  The new government bank will act as an electronic "piggy bank" only.   All deposits will be 100% reserve and it will not make any loans.   Loan making will be left to the private banking system (with no deposit insurance or a possibility of a future bailout).  The new government owned bank exists only as a "safe" money storage and a payment clearing system so the public does not have to carry around physical paper cash to make purchases and pay bills.

7)  Of course this plan is not without pain or cost.  Cost of funds for banks and borrowers will probably rise as bank deposits are a source of very low cost money for the banks.   Nothing is free.   We are just exchanging higher cost of funds for removal of systemic failure risk.   Economically we are recognizing that when money is loaned there is always credit risk. 

8)  We are just separating the payment and clearing transaction system which is absolutely necessary for day-to-day commerce (no credit risk) from the loan banking and investment system (has credit risk).





Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:22 | 75150 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

i agree with some of your philosophy but not
with the operational details....

all insolvent banks should go into involuntary
receivership and liquidated according to current
bankruptcy law....

the 2005 consumer bankruptcy law should be repealed
to the c. 1977 standards....

the us government will need to default on debt
as well....

the various governments should man tent cities
and soup lines to accomodate the many displaced people

criminal prosecutions for financial terrorism should begin with alan greedscam and work down to the bush crime syndicate and other evil doers....

i would allocate no other role for government....however with wholesale bankruptcy reorganizations the economy will
recover in much healthier and humbled way with the crisis lasting no more than 12-24 months....

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:23 | 75151 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Problem: Foreigners will purchase enormous amounts of US property in those auctions.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 05:09 | 75237 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

something along the lines of none can buy or sell without the number of the beast , on hands or foreheads. Not so far fetched is it? Eyes wide shut ? Open your eyes and see the set up for exactly what is stated above . Its happening as we live and breath

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 10:57 | 75330 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

exactly....i responded previously to the original
post with your concerns in mind....

i actually assumed it was a cia/oligarchist
shill who was trying to plant the idea....

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 10:58 | 75331 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

can't confiscate property without just compensation... the net effect to the treasury is zero... or worse when it actually tries to get rid of the toxic assets and has to price them at real world values.

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:32 | 75117 Stevm30
Stevm30's picture

Oh yeah, but don't forget... deflation is going to push long term treasuries sky high.  I'm a buyer at these bargain prices... might consider selling when 30 year bonds are paying 50 bps...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:26 | 75156 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

well it looks like benwa has been running his cayman island accounts at full speed....

reminds me of old soviet times when political candidates earned 99.9% of the vote....

commissar ben can go fuck himself...

Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:34 | 75163 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's important to remember that the FR buys outside of the auction process so statements like this can appear:

"Investors outside the U.S. bought 43.1 percent of the $1.41 trillion of notes and bonds sold by the Treasury Department this year, compared with 27.1 percent of the $527 billion issued at this point in 2008, government figures show."

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:19 | 75187 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hyperinflation is a real possibility here. It's onset can occur suddenly with severe and massive loss of confidence in currency.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 00:48 | 75198 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Now comes the Bloomberg response to ZH updated at 22:25:

"Investors outside the U.S. bought 43.1 percent of the $1.41 trillion of notes and bonds sold by the Treasury Department this year, compared with 27.1 percent of the $527 billion issued at this point in 2008, government figures show.


Treasuries are “starting to look like even a better value with a weaker dollar,” said Dave Chappell, who manages $90 billion in London at Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd., and has been buying longer maturity U.S. government debt."

I'm going to cancel my cable Bloomberg subscription tomorrow. I've had enough of their pump 'n dump articles and cheerleading. Hit 'em in the bottom line folks...

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 05:07 | 75236 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

So even a friendly request by non other than TG,the previous fed himself,is rejected. And now also the time for the congress hearing on the fed audit is looming. Are we in for little shinanigans from the big boys in the form of a rollercoaster in the market? or this has already become an old model(once you threaten people with somthing which dosn't materialize as in a market crash,the type of blackmail loses value)?just in from Reuters
"(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve Board has rejected Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's request for a public review of its structure and governance, Bloomberg said, citing three people familiar with the matter"

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 05:26 | 75238 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Of course the above mentioned proposition by Khan/and many others that it resembles (some involve mandatory debt of DI 2 DIs new equity but none of them involves honouring ANY of the CDS joke other than perhaps prison time for ANYone involved) is/were the rational way out. But!

Imagine now the Larry-fairy, Timmyboy, Benkster 2.0 and O ba nana ma backed by all pulling this one off…


Got gold?

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 05:28 | 75239 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I forgot to add that fruitcake Krug(er)man to the lot. sorry

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 06:03 | 75241 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture


Preserve wealth/grow wealth...meh

The fundamentals are sound somewhere. The fundamentals are strong somewhere.

i. currencies

ii. commodities

iii. stocks

Pick the strongest of the bunch. Isolate the best in that category. Invest.

Is it that hard? Nothing can front run commonsense.

Mon, 09/21/2009 - 07:59 | 75259 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

That post from Rasputin is really great but....fuck it, it's hopeless to be a bear. I give up. No matter how shit a company is, no matter how much every fibre of my being says "short this pig", I can't win against a bunch of corrupt, all powerful sons-of-bitches who are intent on ruining the dollar, health of markets, democratic process, lives of future citizens, etc. Might as well just bail out of all US investment and forget about the entire country.

You win money printers, you win.

PS: fuck you.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 02:35 | 987780 shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

It's important to remember that the FR buys outside of the auction process so statements like this can appear:

"Investors outside the U.S. bought 43.1 percent of the $1.41 trillion of notes and bonds sold by the Treasury Department this year, compared with 27.1 percent of the $527 billion issued at this point in 2008, government figures show."
, i liked your approach,

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Wed, 04/20/2011 - 05:56 | 1187247 shawnlee
shawnlee's picture

It's important to remember that the FR buys outside of the auction process so statements like this can appear:"Investors outside the U.S. bought 43.1 percent of the $1.41 trillion of notes and bonds sold by the Treasury Department this year, compared with 27.1 percent of the $527 billion issued at this point in 2008, government figures show."vmware practice exam
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Mon, 05/23/2011 - 00:11 | 1301137 kummar
kummar's picture

I have an idea. If all we care about is jacking up the nominal value of the indexes without regard to currency decay or the underlying fundamentals, why not price the indexes in ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS. We can really have some fun then - think about it: Dow in the 100's of thousands - might even crack a millie;
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kummar's picture

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Thu, 07/07/2011 - 01:44 | 1431780 newdeals2
newdeals2's picture

The black see example is nice. And it does show one fact,if the debt didn't have interest,then truly there is no harm done. But what about debt service(interest)?.In the cycle mentioned,there are four rounds. Each at 5% has generated about twenty Euro in interest that should payed by the recepients of debt, and that i missing from the calculation. 70-513 | 70-513 | 70-515 | 70-516 | 70-516 | 70-519 | 70-523 | 70-526 |

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Sun, 07/17/2011 - 13:15 | 1463875 BillMardy
BillMardy's picture

It's interesting reading this article and remembering how things were before the economy collapsed - or just at the start of it, anyway!

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