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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Update: Week Of September 1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Six months after our last update on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in visual form, it is time to resume updating readers on what the biggest balance sheet in America looks like, especially since now that Fed is back in the monetization business. So without further ado, here is how Bernanke Capital, LLC looked as of September 1.

  • Securities
    held outright: $2,045 billion 
    • Total Treasury holdings increased from $783 billion to 786 billion, as it bought another $3 billion in USTs as part of QE Lite. Look for this number to grow to well over $1.5 trillion in the next 6 months
    • MBS holdings declined by $8 billion from $1.111 trillion to $1.103 trillion
    • Agency holdings were flat at $157 billion
  • Net
    borrowings: unchanged at
    $60 billion from the prior fortnight.
  • Float,
    liquidity
    swaps, Maiden Lane and other assets: $184
    billion. FX liquidity swaps are at $44 million. The "value" of Maiden Lane I increased to the highest since November 2008, and was at $16 billion. Maiden Lane II was at $23 billion, while AIA Aurora was $27 billion. 
  • The monetary base was $1.995 trillion
  • Reserve balances with banks: $1.035 trillion
  • Foreign holdings of USTs and MBS hit a fresh weekly high of $3.21 trillion.
  • The ratio of Fed assets to the monetary basy was an elevated 1.15x, where it has been for a while.

 

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Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:20 | 560729 Getagrip
Getagrip's picture

Looks fine to me. Think we're on track...to oblivion..

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 04:12 | 561371 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

just wait untill the colour copiers run out of colored toner if they keep printing charts like that!

As I see it, toner use is going throught the roof at the FED offices!

Time to go long on office supplies!

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:19 | 560734 RingToneDeaf
RingToneDeaf's picture

I think,  I understand, the future is looking bright, right?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:28 | 560747 Freebird
Freebird's picture

This is a real growth story. How can I be part of this?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:28 | 560751 Getagrip
Getagrip's picture

Keep paying taxes...

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 19:22 | 560828 FaithEqualsZero
FaithEqualsZero's picture

+1040!

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:17 | 560906 dukeness
dukeness's picture

EZ there, cowboy.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:37 | 560933 cat2
cat2's picture

Nice deductive reasoning.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 01:12 | 561278 Geithners SMARM...
Geithners SMARMY Face's picture

Turbo Tax Bitchez!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 04:13 | 561372 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Sorry, only the people who's name begins with a : A, B, C, D and a E.

we'll start with the F people in 2015.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:28 | 560748 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

The future is...they will do what ever they have to.  Adjust!  Note to self: this might include throwing away everything you thought you knew!!!!

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:28 | 560750 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

The future is so bright I gotta wear shades....that is the oncoming train a mach 2.

On the ohter hand, I wish I could do this with my portfolio. What a killer diller this is.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:58 | 560765 centerline
centerline's picture

Wow. MBS makes the Fed balance sheet look like a snake that swallowed an elephant.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 07:13 | 561417 mchawe
mchawe's picture

MBS about $1.5 TRILLION. Really worth ZERO !?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:43 | 560774 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

The future is t-9 weeks.

Obama is having a major press conference next Friday.  He is making two trips next week to talk about the economy, visiting Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Monday and Cleveland, Ohio on Wednesday.

Lets start the betting on how big stimulus #89 (i have lost count) is going to be, over/under $250B?

Better yet how big does it have to be before every dollar of tax revenue is met with $1.25 in debt issuance.......bueller? (or more likely tyler).

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:58 | 560797 Monetize Me Captain
Monetize Me Captain's picture

I'll take the over

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:50 | 560785 Oswald Spengler
Oswald Spengler's picture

A rising graph sinks all boats.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:50 | 560787 Rusty_Shackleford
Rusty_Shackleford's picture

New Fed motto:

 

"WE PAY TOP PRICE FOR ANY FINANCIAL FOLLY (we have infinite money)"

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:52 | 560788 Bonesetter Brown
Bonesetter Brown's picture

Thanks Tyler, I really appreciate the update.

The chart shows that assets have been declining, and the only thing "quantitative" about the recent Fed decision is that it will serve to hold the Fed's asset base relatively constant; i.e. it will prevent a further decline due to MBS repayments.

It also shows what happened in 4Q08 -- that's when the real explosion happened with the junk of Maiden Lane and FX swaps.  By the time QE was officially announced as policy a few months later, the balance sheet had already ballooned.  The actions of QE 1.0 -- purchase of Treasuries and MBS/agencies -- had less of an effect on overall asset base, and had the greatest impact on the mix of the Fed's assets.  Does anyone know who bought all that Maiden Lane stuff from the Fed post 4Q08?  (Someone please audit the Fed).

The qualitity of the Fed's balance sheet greatly improved over the course of 2009 as Maiden Lane and swaps were replaced with MBS, Agencies, and Treasuries.  Now with the Fed's most recent announcement, the Fed's balance sheet tightens further, with MBS/Agencies replaced by Treasuries.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 19:00 | 560804 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You are correct. The Fed needs just $60 billion more in USTs to become the single biggest holder of US treasuries in the world.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 19:07 | 560810 SloSquez
SloSquez's picture

How do I extrapolate that data, Tyler?  Hmmmm.  Where is that going and what does it mean?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 22:15 | 561084 Perseid.Rocks
Perseid.Rocks's picture

It means Ben just needs more monetary fuel for us to reach escape velocity.

"Engineering, we need another $1,000 million tons of gasoline, thermite, nitro, and c4... just stuff it into the main tube ! Now where were those matches.. I'll just light things up and get this rocket into orbit."

You pile enough fuel on this thing and it'll go up.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:22 | 560917 Shameful
Shameful's picture

That's bullish right? That USTs are so good that our central bank is loath to see anyone else get such a great asset...even though the supply seems infinite...

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 21:24 | 561027 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

With enough support they can be number one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ2HcRl4wSk

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 19:53 | 560805 Getagrip
Getagrip's picture

These are reported numbers. You know like- CPI, PPI, GDP, etc..not implying conspiracy or cover up...They are (have been and will be) the buyer of last resort...have a great day...

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:59 | 560799 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I credit Big Kahuna for the link but this video is a good depiction of what the Fed has been doing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdQFuTQ1l5U

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 18:59 | 560800 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

Guess MBS portion is AAA since it's 1/2 the holdings !

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 19:17 | 560822 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

the fed balance sheet shows welfare for banksters....trillions for banksters but not one red cent for americans...

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:00 | 560878 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

The data in tha narrative don't agree with the graph.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:12 | 560897 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

There are two axes.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 04:49 | 561380 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Mind if i axe ya question Tyler.Did ya mean axis or axes?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 23:01 | 561155 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

When you run a economic system that violates mathematical principles you have to invent weird graphs relating unrelated things with an extra imaginary axis.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:09 | 560893 Inflate Or Die
Inflate Or Die's picture

Hmmmm, Do I use Federal Reserve Notes or toilet paper next time I have to take a dump?

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:22 | 560916 dukeness
dukeness's picture

I don't think Pepto is going to soothe that MBS ulcer.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:28 | 560923 max2205
max2205's picture

----------------------------------------
Breaking News Alert: Obama's economic team considering new stimulus package September 2, 2010 5:21:20 PM
----------------------------------------

With the recovery faltering less than two months before the November congressional elections, President Obama's economic team is considering another big dose of stimulus in the form of tax breaks for businesses -- potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars, according to two people familiar with the talks. Among the options are a temporary payroll tax holiday and a permanent extension of the research and development tax credit, say people familiar with the talks.

http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/0H2RO6/0GGQXY/2V9IAW/F1R6GN/NGQ5Z...

For more information, visit washingtonpost.com

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Thu, 09/02/2010 - 22:03 | 561078 Getagrip
Getagrip's picture

That's all I need to hear. Risk on tomorrow- waiting for my $100,000 voter security check... 

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 22:50 | 561140 Chuck Mentzel
Chuck Mentzel's picture
White House: No second stimulus being considered

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67O4WF20100902

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:39 | 560936 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

O.K. Based on the lending standards of the leasing company I worked for I would probably lend the Fed up to $200,000. But, they would go into the high risk category. That means a 40% minimum down payment and a max 24 month term.

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 23:02 | 561137 LePetomane
LePetomane's picture

Double dip rainbow. It's beautiful.  It's like a technicolor dreamcoat.  Woh.  But what does it mean?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6iqo_K8pUc

Thu, 09/02/2010 - 23:47 | 561217 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Someone needs to overlay the UK and other CBs' holdings onto this.  I suspect that this graph doesn't tell the real story.

At the rate new debt is being issued, ONLY central banks have the "money" to buy it.  Inflation via these means is a foregone conclusion absent some incredible political inversion.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 00:08 | 561234 Mr.Really.Fed.Up
Mr.Really.Fed.Up's picture

Why may US Treasuries grow to $1.5T in next six months?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 01:10 | 561275 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Bottom line, Fed is keeping the financial paper market pumped up.

Why?  Because financial paper is much or most of the assets on financial sector balance sheets (banks, etc).

Keeping the financial paper market pumped up doesn't help the real economy.  In fact it hurts the real economy.  But the financial sector stopped caring about the real economy a long time ago.  They have their own little (fantasy) world now, quite disconnected from the real world.

Obama's primary job is to help keep that fantasy financial paper world pumped up.  Like them, he couldn't care less about the real world and the real economy ...and Bush was the same way ...and every president hereafter will be the same way.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 01:31 | 561292 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

If I could afford it, I would buy a new car and a hot tub -- maybe Chase will increase my credit line.  If my bank fails can I pay my mortgage payment directly to the FED?

Wed, 09/29/2010 - 05:55 | 612034 Herry12
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